多介质环境模型New Equilibrium Criterion(New EQC)参数敏感性分析
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摘要
多介质环境模型被广泛应用于化学品环境风险评估.模型参数敏感性分析是使用模型时必不可少的环节,也是了解模型结构的有效途径之一.模型参数敏感性分析可筛选出对模型预测结果具有显著影响的化学品物化参数和环境参数,有助于减少数据收集工作量,能侧重收集所要评估区域关键的环境参数和实际环境条件下的物化参数值,从而提高模型预测结果的可信度,为化学品管理决策提供准确数据.本研究以化学物质八甲基环四硅氧烷为例,采用局部敏感性分析法中的一次一个变量法和全局敏感性分析法中的回归分析法,分别对多介质环境模型New Equilibrium Criterion模型参数进行了敏感性分析.结果表明,亨利常数、LevelⅢ向空气排放率和沉积物沉积速率等参数值的变化对模型预测结果影响显著.
Multi-media environment models are widely used for chemical environmental risk assessment. The sensitivity analysis of model parameters is essential for the use of models and effective for understanding the model structure. By means of sensitivity analysis, physicochemical parameters of target chemicals and environmental parameters with significant impact on the model prediction results can be screened out. It can improve the reliability of predicted results and provide accurate data for chemical management decision by decreasing aimless collection of parameters and allowing users to gather data of key environmental parameters in particular region and chemical properties parameters. one variable-at-a-time approach and regression analysis were used for the sensitivity analysis of New Equilibrium Criterion model parameters using octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane as the target chemical. The results showed that the changes of the values of Henry′s constant, Level Ⅲ air discharge rate and sediment deposition rate had significant influence on the prediction.
Multi-media environment models are widely used for chemical environmental risk assessment. The sensitivity analysis of model parameters is essential for the use of models and effective for understanding the model structure. By means of sensitivity analysis, physicochemical parameters of target chemicals and environmental parameters with significant impact on the model prediction results can be screened out. It can improve the reliability of predicted results and provide accurate data for chemical management decision by decreasing aimless collection of parameters and allowing users to gather data of key environmental parameters in particular region and chemical properties parameters. one variable-at-a-time approach and regression analysis were used for the sensitivity analysis of New Equilibrium Criterion model parameters using octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane as the target chemical. The results showed that the changes of the values of Henry′s constant, Level Ⅲ air discharge rate and sediment deposition rate had significant influence on the prediction.
引文
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[15] Screening Assessment for the Challenge Octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane(D4)[J].Environment Canada Health Canada,2008.11:10-21.
[16] 于洋,左平春,张楠,等.计算毒理学在农药风险评估中的应用[J].农药科学与管理,2017,38(4):24-30.YU Y,ZUO P C,ZHANG N,et al.Application of computational toxicology in pesticide risk assessment[J].Pesticide Science and Administration,2017,38(4):24-30(in Chinese).
[17] 左平春,于洋,张楠,等.农药环境风险评估中常用的计算毒理学模型软件[J].生态毒理学报,2017,12(4):98-109.ZUO P C,YU Y,ZHANG N,et al.A computational toxicology model software commonly used in pesticide environmental risk assessment[J].Journal of Ecotoxicology,2017,12(4):98-109(in Chinese).
[18] JAESHIN K,DAVID E.P,LAUREN H,et al.Uncertainty analysis using a fugacity-based multimedia mass-balance model:Application of the updated EQC model to decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) [J].Chemosphere,2013(93):819-829.
[2] 周林军,古文,刘济宁,等.化学品环境暴露评估模型研究进展[J].生态毒理学报,2018,13(1):61-74.ZHOU L J,GU W,LIU J N,et al.Research progress in chemical environmental exposure assessment model[J].Journal of Ecotoxicology,2018,13(1):61-74(in Chinese).
[3] Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.Series on Testing and Assessment,No.182,Descriptions of existing models and tools used for exposure assessment results of OECD Survey[R].Paris:OECD,2012.
[4] 唐才明,金佳滨,彭先芝.环境污染物计算毒理学分析及环境行为模拟研究进展[J].环境监控与预警,2016,8(2):1-8,15.TANG C M,JIN J B,PENG X Z.Research progress in toxicological analysis and environmental behavior simulation of environmental pollutants[J].Environmental Monitoring and Warning,2016,8(2):1-8,15(in Chinese).
[5] JIRI N,PIETER E,WILLY B.Sobol′ sensitivity analysis of a complex environmental model[J].Environmental Modelling and Software,2011,26(12):1515-1525.
[6] MACKAY D,GUARDO A D,PATERSON S,et al.Evaluating the environment fate of a variety of types of Chemicals using the EQC mode[J].Environment Toxicology and Chemistry,1996,15(9):1627-1637.
[7] MACLEOD M,SCHERINGER M,MCKONE TE et al.The state of multimedia mass-Balance modeling in environmental science and decision-making[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2010,44(22):8360-8364.
[8] MATAMOROS D,VANROLLEGHEM P A.Pesticide assessment of the banana sector in an ecuadorian watershed[J].Meded Rijksuniv Gent Fak Landbouwkd Toegep Biol Wet,2001,66 (2B):863-872.
[9] LAUREN H,MACKAY D,DAVID E.P,et al.An updated state of the science EQC model for evaluating chemical fate in the environment:Application to D5 (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane)[J].Chemosphere,2012,87 (2):118-124.
[10] 吴磊,谢绍东.应用EQC模型评估灭蚁灵和十氯酮的环境归趋[J].环境科学研究,2007,20(5):50-56.WU L,XIE S D.Evaluation of the environmental fate of mirex and chlordecone using EQC model[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2007,20(5):50-56(in Chinese).
[11] 许晶晶,张圣虎,刘济宁,等.逸度模型在化学品暴露预测中的应用与展望[J].环境科学与技术,2014,37(11):94-98,104.XU J J,ZHANG S H,LIU J N,et al.Application and prospect of dissipative model in chemical exposure prediction[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2014,37(11):94-98,104(in Chinese).
[12] 陈卫平,涂宏志,彭驰,等.环境模型中敏感性分析方法评述[J].环境科学,2017,38(11):4889-4896.CHEN W P,TU H Z,PENG C,et al.Reviewed the environmental sensitivity analysis model [J].Environmental Science,2017,38 (11):4889-4896(in Chinese).
[13] EUNJU C,JEEHYEONG K,SEWOONG C,et al.Modeling metal-sediment interaction processes:Parameter Sensitivity assessment and uncertainty analysis[J].Environmental Modelling and Software.,2016,80:159-174.
[14] 郭智臣.八甲基环四硅氧烷(D4)被移出控制化学品名单[J].化学推进剂与高分子材料,2018,16(2):87-88.GUO Z C.List of octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4) removed from controlled chemicals [J].Chemical Propellants and Polymer Materials,2018,16 (2):87-88(in Chinese).
[15] Screening Assessment for the Challenge Octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane(D4)[J].Environment Canada Health Canada,2008.11:10-21.
[16] 于洋,左平春,张楠,等.计算毒理学在农药风险评估中的应用[J].农药科学与管理,2017,38(4):24-30.YU Y,ZUO P C,ZHANG N,et al.Application of computational toxicology in pesticide risk assessment[J].Pesticide Science and Administration,2017,38(4):24-30(in Chinese).
[17] 左平春,于洋,张楠,等.农药环境风险评估中常用的计算毒理学模型软件[J].生态毒理学报,2017,12(4):98-109.ZUO P C,YU Y,ZHANG N,et al.A computational toxicology model software commonly used in pesticide environmental risk assessment[J].Journal of Ecotoxicology,2017,12(4):98-109(in Chinese).
[18] JAESHIN K,DAVID E.P,LAUREN H,et al.Uncertainty analysis using a fugacity-based multimedia mass-balance model:Application of the updated EQC model to decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) [J].Chemosphere,2013(93):819-829.
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