我国商业银行流动性过剩的研究与分析
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摘要
在刚刚过去的2006年里，流动性过剩问题已成为我国经济运行中的一个突出问题。在2006年年底的一次讲座上，中国社科院金融研究所所长李扬的话颇具概括性，他说，“假如用一句话来概括当前宏观、金融形式的基本特点，毫无疑问应该是流动性过剩。”国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长巴曙松教授更是下了断语：“抑制流动性过剩将是2007年中央银行货币调控的第一要务。”同时，中国人民银行的货币政策执行报告还提出，2007年将继续执行稳健的货币政策，进一步改进金融宏观调控，加强流动性管理，合理控制货币信贷增长。而且2007年初，流动性过剩问题被首次写进了政府工作报告。在2007年4月18日的国务院常务会议上，国务院总理温家宝再次指出把抓紧缓解流动性过剩矛盾作为当前以至全年宏观调控的重点。有关专家认为，今年中央政府可能会进行综合改革，从根本上解决我国经济运行中的流动性过剩问题。流动性过剩主要表现在商业银行体系。在这个背景下，对我国商业流动性过剩问题的表现、影响、成因的深入分析以及对其提出解决的建议正是本文写作目的所在。
本文先对现有的文献进行综述，根据现有的文献来看，很多文章都没有就流动性本身进行一个清楚的界定就展开了讨论。由于“流动性”自身含有多层意思，如果直接进入分析，难免会引起一些误会，所以本文决定首先以“流动性”的一个合理而清晰的界定开头，在此基础上定义流动性过剩。然后从量化的角度，选定货币供应量、存贷差和存贷比、超额准备金作为分析对象，结合历年数据和指标来考察分析商业银行流动性过剩的状况，通过分析比较各年的统计数据，我们得出了我国商业银行确实存在流动性过剩的状况。
商业银行流动性过剩对我国经济的影响是多方面的。流动性过剩无疑对商业银行盈利能力造成负面影响、削弱中央银行货币政策有效性，也使社会资金利用效率降低、冲击我国资本市场甚至隐含金融危机。但是我们也要看到流动性过剩也是我们要抓住的一次机遇，充分利用流动性过剩，发挥流动性过剩的积极影响，包括促进经济发展和转型以及扩大资本市场的规模和结构、提升产业升级和扩大公共服务、调整资产结构，拓宽运用渠道，创新业务品种等。
接下来讨论了引起我国流动性过剩的原因，首先分析了外汇储备对我国流动性的影响，持续的贸易和资本项目双顺差使得外汇储备迅速增加。由于外汇储备的迅速增长而投放的基础货币也相应地大幅增加，这是导致商业银行流动性过剩的主要原因。接下来分别介绍了储蓄率过高、金融市场不发达、不良贷款大量剥离和商业银行经营理念与经营方式转变、银行内部控制的原因和银行持有的非金融机构的有价债券的总量不断增长对我国商业银行流动性过剩的影响。本文在分析完这些原因的基础上，认为除了外汇储备和银行持有的非金融机构的有价债券两个原因外，其它原因都可视为是政策体制方面的原因，不易度量。对这两个变量与表示流动性水平的存差进行实证分析，结果发现外汇储备和银行持有的非金融机构的有价债券是存差不断扩大的原因，这个结论也验证了我们前面对这两个变量的定性分析。
现有文献中给出了很多解决我国流动性过剩的方法，本文在借鉴这些方法的基础上，认为抑制流动性过剩大致可以从两个角度展开，即从源头上减少流动性的来源和从出路上疏导流动性过剩。源头上减少流动性主要是加强外汇储备管理。而出路上疏导流动性过剩主要在以下方面完善：增加国内需求、改善金融生态环境、转换商业银行经营理念。
The problem of liquidity had become a prominent issue of Chinese economic operation in just passed 2006.In a lecture at the end of 2006,Li Yang ,the director of Finance Research institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, his speech had the quite general, he said ,"If summed up current macroeconomic ,the essential feature of financial form with a word, should be without doubt that is the liquidity surplus". Ba Shusong ,the professor and assistant manager of Finance Research institute of State Council R&D center ,gave verdict:" The first important matter of the currency regulation of Central Bank is suppression liquidity surplus in 2007" .Simultaneously, the monetary policy execution report of People's Bank of China's also proposed that we will continue to carry out the steady monetary policy, improve the financial macroeconomic regulation further, enhance the liquidity management, control the currency credit growth reasonably in 2007. Moreover, at the beginning of 2007, the liquidity surplus problem has been interpolated to the government service report for the first time. Wen Jiabao ,the State Council Premier , pointed out the alleviation liquidity surplus contradictory is the current even the whole year macroeconomic regulation and control key point in April 18, in 2007 State Council routine conference. The concerned expert believed that the central authorities may carry on the comprehensive reform this year, solving the liquidity problem of our country economy movement fundamentally. Our country's liquidity surplus mainly displays in the commercial bank system. Under this background, To our commercial banks liquidity surplus question performance、the influence, the origin thorough analysis as well as to proposed the solution suggestion are the goal of the article.
In this paper, we overview the existing literature firstly, under the existing terms of literature , many articles had discussion without conducted on the liquid itself to a clear definition. Because liquidity oneself includes the multi-layered meanings, if enters the analysis directly, may cause some misunderstanding unavoidably, this paper decided to give "liquidity " a reasonable and clearly defined at the beginning, and then defined the liquidity surplus. Then from a point of quantitative, selected money supply, loan-to-deposit and loan-to-deposit ratio and the excess of the reserve as analysis object. Combining historical data and indicators to inspect commercial banks of the situation of liquidity surplus, through the analysis of the statistical data, we obtained that commercial banks do exist liquidity surplus situation.
The influence of liquidity surplus of the commercial bank to our country economy is various. The liquidity surplus without doubt has the negative influence to the commercial bank profit ability、weaken the effectiveness of the central bank's monetary policy, also lower social capital utilization efficiency、impact of the capital market and even implied financial crisis. But we also must see the liquidity surplus also is an opportunity which we must seize, make full use of excess liquidity, display the positive influence of the liquidity surplus, including promotion economy development and reforming as well as expansion capital market scale and structure、Promotion industry upgrading and expanding public services、adjustment property structure, broaden the use of channels, innovation service variety and so on.
Next discussed the reasons for the liquidity surplus. The one analysis of foreign exchange reserves to the impact of liquidity, Sustained trade and capital projects double favorable balance makes rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves. Due to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves we should issue the base currency sharp increase correspondingly, this is the main cause of the liquidity surplus of commercial bank. Then, introduced the high savings ratio excessively, underdeveloped financial market, a large number of non-performing loans stripping, operating philosophy and the mode of operation of commercial banks changed, the reasons for the banks internal control and the unceasing growing valuable bond of the non-banking financial institutions separately. Under these reasons, except two reasons of the foreign reserve and valuable bond of non-banking financial institutions, Other reasons all may regard as the policy aspect reasons. Using these two variables and the gap between loan and deposit which is the expression of liquidity, we conduct of empirical analysis. The results showed that foreign exchange reserves and the valuable bond of non-banking financial institutions are the reasons for the gap expands unceasingly. This conclusion has also confirmed our previous qualitative analysis.
There are many methods to solve the liquidity surplus in the existing literature. In this paper, drawing on the basis of these methods, we can suppress liquidity surplus from the two aspects. We can reduce the liquidity origin and unblock the liquidity. From the origin, strengthen the management of foreign exchange reserves. From the outlet, we should do: improvement finance ecological environment, increasing the domestic demand, converting commercial banks operating philosophy.
本文先对现有的文献进行综述，根据现有的文献来看，很多文章都没有就流动性本身进行一个清楚的界定就展开了讨论。由于“流动性”自身含有多层意思，如果直接进入分析，难免会引起一些误会，所以本文决定首先以“流动性”的一个合理而清晰的界定开头，在此基础上定义流动性过剩。然后从量化的角度，选定货币供应量、存贷差和存贷比、超额准备金作为分析对象，结合历年数据和指标来考察分析商业银行流动性过剩的状况，通过分析比较各年的统计数据，我们得出了我国商业银行确实存在流动性过剩的状况。
商业银行流动性过剩对我国经济的影响是多方面的。流动性过剩无疑对商业银行盈利能力造成负面影响、削弱中央银行货币政策有效性，也使社会资金利用效率降低、冲击我国资本市场甚至隐含金融危机。但是我们也要看到流动性过剩也是我们要抓住的一次机遇，充分利用流动性过剩，发挥流动性过剩的积极影响，包括促进经济发展和转型以及扩大资本市场的规模和结构、提升产业升级和扩大公共服务、调整资产结构，拓宽运用渠道，创新业务品种等。
接下来讨论了引起我国流动性过剩的原因，首先分析了外汇储备对我国流动性的影响，持续的贸易和资本项目双顺差使得外汇储备迅速增加。由于外汇储备的迅速增长而投放的基础货币也相应地大幅增加，这是导致商业银行流动性过剩的主要原因。接下来分别介绍了储蓄率过高、金融市场不发达、不良贷款大量剥离和商业银行经营理念与经营方式转变、银行内部控制的原因和银行持有的非金融机构的有价债券的总量不断增长对我国商业银行流动性过剩的影响。本文在分析完这些原因的基础上，认为除了外汇储备和银行持有的非金融机构的有价债券两个原因外，其它原因都可视为是政策体制方面的原因，不易度量。对这两个变量与表示流动性水平的存差进行实证分析，结果发现外汇储备和银行持有的非金融机构的有价债券是存差不断扩大的原因，这个结论也验证了我们前面对这两个变量的定性分析。
现有文献中给出了很多解决我国流动性过剩的方法，本文在借鉴这些方法的基础上，认为抑制流动性过剩大致可以从两个角度展开，即从源头上减少流动性的来源和从出路上疏导流动性过剩。源头上减少流动性主要是加强外汇储备管理。而出路上疏导流动性过剩主要在以下方面完善：增加国内需求、改善金融生态环境、转换商业银行经营理念。
The problem of liquidity had become a prominent issue of Chinese economic operation in just passed 2006.In a lecture at the end of 2006,Li Yang ,the director of Finance Research institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, his speech had the quite general, he said ,"If summed up current macroeconomic ,the essential feature of financial form with a word, should be without doubt that is the liquidity surplus". Ba Shusong ,the professor and assistant manager of Finance Research institute of State Council R&D center ,gave verdict:" The first important matter of the currency regulation of Central Bank is suppression liquidity surplus in 2007" .Simultaneously, the monetary policy execution report of People's Bank of China's also proposed that we will continue to carry out the steady monetary policy, improve the financial macroeconomic regulation further, enhance the liquidity management, control the currency credit growth reasonably in 2007. Moreover, at the beginning of 2007, the liquidity surplus problem has been interpolated to the government service report for the first time. Wen Jiabao ,the State Council Premier , pointed out the alleviation liquidity surplus contradictory is the current even the whole year macroeconomic regulation and control key point in April 18, in 2007 State Council routine conference. The concerned expert believed that the central authorities may carry on the comprehensive reform this year, solving the liquidity problem of our country economy movement fundamentally. Our country's liquidity surplus mainly displays in the commercial bank system. Under this background, To our commercial banks liquidity surplus question performance、the influence, the origin thorough analysis as well as to proposed the solution suggestion are the goal of the article.
In this paper, we overview the existing literature firstly, under the existing terms of literature , many articles had discussion without conducted on the liquid itself to a clear definition. Because liquidity oneself includes the multi-layered meanings, if enters the analysis directly, may cause some misunderstanding unavoidably, this paper decided to give "liquidity " a reasonable and clearly defined at the beginning, and then defined the liquidity surplus. Then from a point of quantitative, selected money supply, loan-to-deposit and loan-to-deposit ratio and the excess of the reserve as analysis object. Combining historical data and indicators to inspect commercial banks of the situation of liquidity surplus, through the analysis of the statistical data, we obtained that commercial banks do exist liquidity surplus situation.
The influence of liquidity surplus of the commercial bank to our country economy is various. The liquidity surplus without doubt has the negative influence to the commercial bank profit ability、weaken the effectiveness of the central bank's monetary policy, also lower social capital utilization efficiency、impact of the capital market and even implied financial crisis. But we also must see the liquidity surplus also is an opportunity which we must seize, make full use of excess liquidity, display the positive influence of the liquidity surplus, including promotion economy development and reforming as well as expansion capital market scale and structure、Promotion industry upgrading and expanding public services、adjustment property structure, broaden the use of channels, innovation service variety and so on.
Next discussed the reasons for the liquidity surplus. The one analysis of foreign exchange reserves to the impact of liquidity, Sustained trade and capital projects double favorable balance makes rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves. Due to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves we should issue the base currency sharp increase correspondingly, this is the main cause of the liquidity surplus of commercial bank. Then, introduced the high savings ratio excessively, underdeveloped financial market, a large number of non-performing loans stripping, operating philosophy and the mode of operation of commercial banks changed, the reasons for the banks internal control and the unceasing growing valuable bond of the non-banking financial institutions separately. Under these reasons, except two reasons of the foreign reserve and valuable bond of non-banking financial institutions, Other reasons all may regard as the policy aspect reasons. Using these two variables and the gap between loan and deposit which is the expression of liquidity, we conduct of empirical analysis. The results showed that foreign exchange reserves and the valuable bond of non-banking financial institutions are the reasons for the gap expands unceasingly. This conclusion has also confirmed our previous qualitative analysis.
There are many methods to solve the liquidity surplus in the existing literature. In this paper, drawing on the basis of these methods, we can suppress liquidity surplus from the two aspects. We can reduce the liquidity origin and unblock the liquidity. From the origin, strengthen the management of foreign exchange reserves. From the outlet, we should do: improvement finance ecological environment, increasing the domestic demand, converting commercial banks operating philosophy.
引文
① 邹新：《世界流动性过剩挥之不去》[J]，银行家，2006(1)，第66页
② 中国人民银行网站，www.pbc.gov.cn
① 张雪春：《流动性过剩余：现状分析与对策建议》[J]，金融研究，2007(8)，第11—15页
② 艾洪德，范立夫：《货币银行学》[M]，2005，第318页
③ 刘仁伍：《流动性过剩的对策》[J]，银行家，2007(2)，第49页
① 谢沛善：《外汇占款对货币政策有效性冲击及调查》[J]，广西金融研究，2006 (1)，第17页
② 余永定：《中国双顺差根源：根源及对策》[J]，中国金融，2006 (19)，第25页
③ 侯慧君：《我国金融信用的缺失与监管问题研究》[J]，上海金融，2006 (8)，第36—37页
1 朱庆：《解读当前市场流动性过剩》[J]，上海经济研究，2006 (1)，第13-16页
2 邹新：《世界流动性过剩挥之不去》[J]，银行家，2006 (9)，第66-69页
3 连建辉，翁洪琴：《银行流动性过剩：当前金融运行中面临的突出问题》[J]，财经科学，2006 (4)，第1-7页
4 巴曙松：《货币政策：如何应对过剩流动性冲击》[N]，中国经济时报，2006．07．11
5 杨凯生：《商业银行的“流动性困境”与金融创新》[J]，银行家，2006 (2)，第11-13页
6 胡晔：《如何化解商业银行流动性过剩》[J]，银行家，2006 (11)，第88-91页
7 董积生：《当前商业银行流动性过剩问题研究》[J]，南方金融，2006 (9)，第8-10页
8 朱睿：《商业银行流动性过剩分析及对策研究》[J]，金融理论与实践，2006 (9)，第27-28页
9 李刚：《制度变革下的银行流动性过剩》[N]，中国城乡金融报，2006-04-17
10 聂兆祝，王万峰：对当前银行业流动性过剩的分析[J]，西南金融，2006 (8) 第21-23页
11 温希强：《流动性过剩：破解与解谜》[N]，中国财经报，2006-11-14
12 李成，姜柳：《从汇率视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩》[J]，金融论坛，2006，(9)，第54-58页
13 任碧云，王越凤：《中国流动性过剩原因辨析》[J]，经济理论与经济管理，2007 (2)，第19-25页
14 何志专：《缓解流动性过剩需调整金融市场结构》[N]，中国经济时报，2006-12-20
15 谢沛善：《外汇占款对货币政策有效性冲击及调查》[J]，广西金融研究，2006 (1)，第17页
16 余永定：《中国双顺差根源：根源及对策》[J]，中国金融，2006，(19)， 第25页
17 侯慧君，我国金融信用的缺失与监管问题研究[J]，上海金融，2006 (8)，第36-37页
18 张雪春：《流动性过剩余：现状分析与对策建议》[J]，金融研究，2007 (8)，第1-15页
19 艾洪德，范立夫：货币银行学[M]，东北财经大学出版社，2005，第317-322页
20 刘仁伍：《流动性过剩的对策》[J]，银行家，2007 (2)，第49页
21 潘宏盛：《汇改以来外汇管理政策调整述要》[J]，中国外汇，2007 (8)，第22页
21 董积生，戴鉴雄：《商业银行流动性过剩成因考察》[J]，财经科学，2007 (1)，第10-16
22 孙建潮：《基于宏观角度的商业银行流动性过剩分析》[J]，财经科学，2006 (7)，第1-6页
23 中国人民银行网站，www.pbc.gov.cn
24 国家外汇管理局网站，www.safe.gov.cn
25 Barro, R.: 《Rational Expectations and Role of Monetary Policy》 [J], Journal of Monetary Economics, 1976 (2), P1-32
26 Peter S. Rose: 《Commercial Bank Management》 [M], 2000, 4th Edition
27 Fischer, S.: 《Long Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Monetary Supply Rule》 [J], Journal of Political Economy, 1997 (85), P191-205
28 Obstfeld: 《Risk-Taking, Global Diversifacation, and growth' American Economic Review》[M], 1994 (84), P1310-1329
29 Holmstrom, B. and Tirole: 《Financial intermediation, loanable funds, and the real sector》 [J], Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1997 (52), P663-692
30 Holmstrom, B. and Tirole: 《Private and Public supply of liquidity》 [J], Journal of Political Economy, 1998 (106) P1-40
② 中国人民银行网站，www.pbc.gov.cn
① 张雪春：《流动性过剩余：现状分析与对策建议》[J]，金融研究，2007(8)，第11—15页
② 艾洪德，范立夫：《货币银行学》[M]，2005，第318页
③ 刘仁伍：《流动性过剩的对策》[J]，银行家，2007(2)，第49页
① 谢沛善：《外汇占款对货币政策有效性冲击及调查》[J]，广西金融研究，2006 (1)，第17页
② 余永定：《中国双顺差根源：根源及对策》[J]，中国金融，2006 (19)，第25页
③ 侯慧君：《我国金融信用的缺失与监管问题研究》[J]，上海金融，2006 (8)，第36—37页
1 朱庆：《解读当前市场流动性过剩》[J]，上海经济研究，2006 (1)，第13-16页
2 邹新：《世界流动性过剩挥之不去》[J]，银行家，2006 (9)，第66-69页
3 连建辉，翁洪琴：《银行流动性过剩：当前金融运行中面临的突出问题》[J]，财经科学，2006 (4)，第1-7页
4 巴曙松：《货币政策：如何应对过剩流动性冲击》[N]，中国经济时报，2006．07．11
5 杨凯生：《商业银行的“流动性困境”与金融创新》[J]，银行家，2006 (2)，第11-13页
6 胡晔：《如何化解商业银行流动性过剩》[J]，银行家，2006 (11)，第88-91页
7 董积生：《当前商业银行流动性过剩问题研究》[J]，南方金融，2006 (9)，第8-10页
8 朱睿：《商业银行流动性过剩分析及对策研究》[J]，金融理论与实践，2006 (9)，第27-28页
9 李刚：《制度变革下的银行流动性过剩》[N]，中国城乡金融报，2006-04-17
10 聂兆祝，王万峰：对当前银行业流动性过剩的分析[J]，西南金融，2006 (8) 第21-23页
11 温希强：《流动性过剩：破解与解谜》[N]，中国财经报，2006-11-14
12 李成，姜柳：《从汇率视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩》[J]，金融论坛，2006，(9)，第54-58页
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