我国商业银行流动性过剩及其治理机制研究
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摘要
我国商业银行流动性过剩问题已经引起广泛关注,在探明流动性过剩表象和危害的基础上研究问题的成因并寻求问题的解决之道具有重大理论和现实意义。
文章开篇介绍了国内外相关研究的现状,接着对流动性过剩的危害和不良影响进行了描述,随后分析了流动性过剩的表征;在对流动性过剩的成因分时间期限进行了初步的理论分析后,运用实证的方法证明了外汇占款过大是当前导致商业银行流动性过剩的主因;在原因分析的基础上,最后有的放矢地提出了疏导和治理商业银行流动性过剩的政策建议。
文章的核心内容为商业银行流动性过剩的原因分析和对策研究。国有商业银行的股份制改造使得可贷资金猛增,这是造成流动性过剩的短期因素。源于外汇体制改革滞后的人民币升值的强烈预期,造成了热钱的大规模流入,形成流动性过剩的中期因素。而流动性过剩的长期因素和根源还是在于经济结构的失衡,以及由失衡所带来的高投资、低消费、高储蓄和经济对外依存度过高,在这种宏观经济背景下,形成大量外汇储备和外汇占款从而造成流动性过度输入并最终导致国内金融市场和银行体系流动性过剩,就成为十分自然的现象。相应地,短期内可用特别国债和特种存款回收流动性,中期内就需要着眼于资本市场改革和汇率体制改革,而就长期战略而言,必须优化经济结构,拉动内需,摆脱经济增长过度依赖投资和出口的局面,减少贸易顺差,从而从本源上根治流动性过剩。
The liquidity surplus in commercial banks has attracted increasingly concern. Having observed the phenomenon of surplus liquidity and its harm, we can safely conclude that, to investigate the essence of the issue and thus to find a final solution will make significant theoretical and practical sense.
The paper firstly introduces the present research in the issue of surplus liquidity inside and outside of china. Secondly, the author describes the bad effect caused by surplus liquidity. Thirdly, after assessing the character and the nature of the surplus liquidity and analyzing the primary cause of the issue in terms of period, the author uses a demonstratical methodology to identify that, the overstock of foreign exchange is the main cause of surplus liquidity currently. With the study of the cause, the author eventually puts forward a political suggestion to restrain and control the surplus liquidity in commercial banks.
The core content of the paper focuses on the analysis of the cause and exploration of the solution of the issue-surplus liquidity in commercial banks. The reform of shareholding system in Nation-owned commercial banks can lead to a uprush in capital, making it the short-term cause of surplus liquidity. However, the long-term root of this issue lies in the unbalanced economical structure and the over investment, lower consumption, higher deposit, coming thereafter. Under such macro economic background, it is natural to form a huge sum of foreign exchange and over occupation of funds, which result in the surplus liquidity in domestic financial market and banking system. Correspondingly, we can use special national bond and special deposit to reclaim liquidity in the short-term. Besides, in the mid-term, the capital market reform and exchange system reform are critical important. In the long-run, we must update the economic structure, motivate the inner demand, get rid of the situation that economic growth heavily depends on the investment and export, and reduce the trade surplus. Undoubtly, they constitute a fundamental solution to the issue of surplus liquidity.
文章开篇介绍了国内外相关研究的现状,接着对流动性过剩的危害和不良影响进行了描述,随后分析了流动性过剩的表征;在对流动性过剩的成因分时间期限进行了初步的理论分析后,运用实证的方法证明了外汇占款过大是当前导致商业银行流动性过剩的主因;在原因分析的基础上,最后有的放矢地提出了疏导和治理商业银行流动性过剩的政策建议。
文章的核心内容为商业银行流动性过剩的原因分析和对策研究。国有商业银行的股份制改造使得可贷资金猛增,这是造成流动性过剩的短期因素。源于外汇体制改革滞后的人民币升值的强烈预期,造成了热钱的大规模流入,形成流动性过剩的中期因素。而流动性过剩的长期因素和根源还是在于经济结构的失衡,以及由失衡所带来的高投资、低消费、高储蓄和经济对外依存度过高,在这种宏观经济背景下,形成大量外汇储备和外汇占款从而造成流动性过度输入并最终导致国内金融市场和银行体系流动性过剩,就成为十分自然的现象。相应地,短期内可用特别国债和特种存款回收流动性,中期内就需要着眼于资本市场改革和汇率体制改革,而就长期战略而言,必须优化经济结构,拉动内需,摆脱经济增长过度依赖投资和出口的局面,减少贸易顺差,从而从本源上根治流动性过剩。
The liquidity surplus in commercial banks has attracted increasingly concern. Having observed the phenomenon of surplus liquidity and its harm, we can safely conclude that, to investigate the essence of the issue and thus to find a final solution will make significant theoretical and practical sense.
The paper firstly introduces the present research in the issue of surplus liquidity inside and outside of china. Secondly, the author describes the bad effect caused by surplus liquidity. Thirdly, after assessing the character and the nature of the surplus liquidity and analyzing the primary cause of the issue in terms of period, the author uses a demonstratical methodology to identify that, the overstock of foreign exchange is the main cause of surplus liquidity currently. With the study of the cause, the author eventually puts forward a political suggestion to restrain and control the surplus liquidity in commercial banks.
The core content of the paper focuses on the analysis of the cause and exploration of the solution of the issue-surplus liquidity in commercial banks. The reform of shareholding system in Nation-owned commercial banks can lead to a uprush in capital, making it the short-term cause of surplus liquidity. However, the long-term root of this issue lies in the unbalanced economical structure and the over investment, lower consumption, higher deposit, coming thereafter. Under such macro economic background, it is natural to form a huge sum of foreign exchange and over occupation of funds, which result in the surplus liquidity in domestic financial market and banking system. Correspondingly, we can use special national bond and special deposit to reclaim liquidity in the short-term. Besides, in the mid-term, the capital market reform and exchange system reform are critical important. In the long-run, we must update the economic structure, motivate the inner demand, get rid of the situation that economic growth heavily depends on the investment and export, and reduce the trade surplus. Undoubtly, they constitute a fundamental solution to the issue of surplus liquidity.
引文
[1]曾康霖.“流动性过剩”研究的新视角.财贸经济,2007,(01);43-46
[2]刘锡良.商业银行流动性过剩问题的再认识.财经科学,2007,(02);96-103
[3]陆磊.论银行体系的流动性过剩.金融研究,2007,(01);1-4
[4]邹新.全球经济失衡、流动性过剩及其对中国经济的影响.中国经济时报,2006-07-03
[5]Hicks,J.R.Loanable Funds and Liquidity Perfernce.Tsiang,S.C.,1989
[6]Andrea Buraschi and Davide Menini.Liquidity risk and specialness.Journal of Financial Economics,2002,64(2);243-284
[7]Mckinnon,R.Money and Capital in Economic Development Washington,DC;Brookings Institution,1973
[8]Adam B.Elhiraika;" Islamic Financial System And Saving;An Empirical Assessment",Islamic Development Bank,2004
[9]Diamond D,Dybvig P.Bank Runs,Deposit Insurance,and Liquidity.Journal of Political Economy,1983,(91);401-19
[10]Kay Mitusch and Dieter Nautz.Interest rate and liquidity risk management and the European money supply process.Journal of Banking&Finance,2001,25(11);2089-2101
[11]Market Liquidity;Research Findings and Selected Policy Implications.Bank for International Settlements,1999
[12]Kaufman G.Bank contagion;theory and evidence,http;//papers.ssrn.comso13/papers.cfm?abstract_id=69093,1992
[13]张杰.国有银行的存差;逻辑与性质.金融研究,2003,(6);5-12
[14]聂兆祝,王万峰.对当前商业银行流动性过剩的分析.银行管理,2006,(8);21-22
[15]戴国强.商业银行经营学.高等教育出版社,1998,24-28
[16]Alfred,Marshall.Principles of Economics.London;Macmillan and Co.,Ltd.,1920.Eighth edition.First published,1890
[17]胡江芳.商业银行流动性风险管理研究;[硕士学位论文].武汉;武汉理工大学,2006,(04);6-18
[18]罗斌,龙薇.中央银行学.湖南大学出版社,2003
[19]彭建刚.商业银行管理学.中国金融出版社,2004
[20]黄昌利,任若恩.中国的M2/GDP水平与趋势的国际比较、影响因素;1978-2002.中国软科学,2004,(2);61-65
[21]刘明志.中国的M2/GDP;趋势、水平和影响因素.经济研究,2001,(2);3-12
[22]余永定.M2/GDP的动态增长路径.世界经济,2002,(10);37-47
[23]谢平,俞乔.中国经济市场化过程中的货币总量控制.会融研究,1996,(1);45-55
[24]杨无限,韩敏.对我国金融机构75%贷存比合理性的质疑.现代商业银行导刊,2000,(1);31-34
[25]伍志文,鞠方,赵细英.我国银行存差扩大成因的实证分析.财经研究,2004,(4);27-38
[26]Friedman,Benjamin M.,Does Monetary Policy Affect Real Economic Activity? Why Do We Still Ask This Question? NBER Working Paper,No.5212,1995
[27]中国人民银行.2004年第四季度货币政策执行报告,2005
[28]中国人民银行.2005年第四季度货币政策执行报告,2006
[29]中国人民银行.2006年第四季度货币政策执行报告,2007
[30]中国人民银行.2007年第二季度货币政策执行报告,2007
[31]张向永,王海.北京五环内期房均价1.37万元.市场报,2007-10-29
[32]李成,姜柳.从汇率制度视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩.金融论坛,2006,(9);54-58
[33]梁福涛.外汇储备投资与流动性过剩格局分析.银行家,2007,(4);76-79
[34]岳意定,张璇.我国外汇储备对基础货币影响的实证研究.世界经济研究,2007,(1);48-53
[35]董积生,汪莉.商业银行流动性过剩的经济效应分析.金融理论与实践,2006,(10);24-25
[36]万晓西.热钱已经挟持中国经济.上海证券报,2007-07-20
[37]方烨等.外资加速进入房地产市场 热钱非正常流动已成事实.经济参考报,2007-10-31
[38]王国强,杨成.1.55万亿特别国债如何影响流动性?上海证券报,2007-07-02
[39]秦媛娜,苗燕.央行重启特种存款、扩大回收流动性范围.上海证券,2007-10-17
[40]Goldsmith,RaymondW.Financial Structure and Development.New Haven,CT;YaleUniversitv Press,1969
[41]肖崎.论我国货币市场与资本市场的有效沟通.金融教学与研究,2004,(4);38-39
[42]李若愚,吴晓灵.当前任务不是控制汇率而是调整经济结构.北京晨报, 2007-10-23
[43]张玲.加快发展中间业务,提升国有银行竞争力.生产力研究,2001,(2);14-1145
[44]李小秋,郑向阳.利率市场化改革的路径及策略.金融时报,2007-02-26
[45]郭凤琳,张泰欣,吴晓灵.把Shibor培育成中国基准利率.中国证券报,2006-12-11
[2]刘锡良.商业银行流动性过剩问题的再认识.财经科学,2007,(02);96-103
[3]陆磊.论银行体系的流动性过剩.金融研究,2007,(01);1-4
[4]邹新.全球经济失衡、流动性过剩及其对中国经济的影响.中国经济时报,2006-07-03
[5]Hicks,J.R.Loanable Funds and Liquidity Perfernce.Tsiang,S.C.,1989
[6]Andrea Buraschi and Davide Menini.Liquidity risk and specialness.Journal of Financial Economics,2002,64(2);243-284
[7]Mckinnon,R.Money and Capital in Economic Development Washington,DC;Brookings Institution,1973
[8]Adam B.Elhiraika;" Islamic Financial System And Saving;An Empirical Assessment",Islamic Development Bank,2004
[9]Diamond D,Dybvig P.Bank Runs,Deposit Insurance,and Liquidity.Journal of Political Economy,1983,(91);401-19
[10]Kay Mitusch and Dieter Nautz.Interest rate and liquidity risk management and the European money supply process.Journal of Banking&Finance,2001,25(11);2089-2101
[11]Market Liquidity;Research Findings and Selected Policy Implications.Bank for International Settlements,1999
[12]Kaufman G.Bank contagion;theory and evidence,http;//papers.ssrn.comso13/papers.cfm?abstract_id=69093,1992
[13]张杰.国有银行的存差;逻辑与性质.金融研究,2003,(6);5-12
[14]聂兆祝,王万峰.对当前商业银行流动性过剩的分析.银行管理,2006,(8);21-22
[15]戴国强.商业银行经营学.高等教育出版社,1998,24-28
[16]Alfred,Marshall.Principles of Economics.London;Macmillan and Co.,Ltd.,1920.Eighth edition.First published,1890
[17]胡江芳.商业银行流动性风险管理研究;[硕士学位论文].武汉;武汉理工大学,2006,(04);6-18
[18]罗斌,龙薇.中央银行学.湖南大学出版社,2003
[19]彭建刚.商业银行管理学.中国金融出版社,2004
[20]黄昌利,任若恩.中国的M2/GDP水平与趋势的国际比较、影响因素;1978-2002.中国软科学,2004,(2);61-65
[21]刘明志.中国的M2/GDP;趋势、水平和影响因素.经济研究,2001,(2);3-12
[22]余永定.M2/GDP的动态增长路径.世界经济,2002,(10);37-47
[23]谢平,俞乔.中国经济市场化过程中的货币总量控制.会融研究,1996,(1);45-55
[24]杨无限,韩敏.对我国金融机构75%贷存比合理性的质疑.现代商业银行导刊,2000,(1);31-34
[25]伍志文,鞠方,赵细英.我国银行存差扩大成因的实证分析.财经研究,2004,(4);27-38
[26]Friedman,Benjamin M.,Does Monetary Policy Affect Real Economic Activity? Why Do We Still Ask This Question? NBER Working Paper,No.5212,1995
[27]中国人民银行.2004年第四季度货币政策执行报告,2005
[28]中国人民银行.2005年第四季度货币政策执行报告,2006
[29]中国人民银行.2006年第四季度货币政策执行报告,2007
[30]中国人民银行.2007年第二季度货币政策执行报告,2007
[31]张向永,王海.北京五环内期房均价1.37万元.市场报,2007-10-29
[32]李成,姜柳.从汇率制度视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩.金融论坛,2006,(9);54-58
[33]梁福涛.外汇储备投资与流动性过剩格局分析.银行家,2007,(4);76-79
[34]岳意定,张璇.我国外汇储备对基础货币影响的实证研究.世界经济研究,2007,(1);48-53
[35]董积生,汪莉.商业银行流动性过剩的经济效应分析.金融理论与实践,2006,(10);24-25
[36]万晓西.热钱已经挟持中国经济.上海证券报,2007-07-20
[37]方烨等.外资加速进入房地产市场 热钱非正常流动已成事实.经济参考报,2007-10-31
[38]王国强,杨成.1.55万亿特别国债如何影响流动性?上海证券报,2007-07-02
[39]秦媛娜,苗燕.央行重启特种存款、扩大回收流动性范围.上海证券,2007-10-17
[40]Goldsmith,RaymondW.Financial Structure and Development.New Haven,CT;YaleUniversitv Press,1969
[41]肖崎.论我国货币市场与资本市场的有效沟通.金融教学与研究,2004,(4);38-39
[42]李若愚,吴晓灵.当前任务不是控制汇率而是调整经济结构.北京晨报, 2007-10-23
[43]张玲.加快发展中间业务,提升国有银行竞争力.生产力研究,2001,(2);14-1145
[44]李小秋,郑向阳.利率市场化改革的路径及策略.金融时报,2007-02-26
[45]郭凤琳,张泰欣,吴晓灵.把Shibor培育成中国基准利率.中国证券报,2006-12-11
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