模具报价决策支持系统
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摘要
在以客户为中心的新时代条件下，客户成为企业生存的最大资源，企业要生存，就必须进行有效的客户关系管理。所以在继制造资源计划(Manufacture Resource Plan，MRPII)、企业资源计划(Enterprise ResourcePlan，ERP)等先进的管理制造理念之后，客户关系管理(Customer Relationship Management，CRM)成为新研究的热点。
本文首先阐述了报价与客户关系管理的关系，分析了现存模具报价系统优缺点；按照让具有核心能力的小型模具企业组成动态联盟的思想，并且考虑到中国模具制造企业实际的特点，建立模具行业中心分别为模具企业和模具客户服务的系统框架；针对模具报价提出建立多模型的模具报价决策支持系统的体系结构，并详细分析和阐述了各个功能模块的功能；模具报价决策支持系统是以多模型为基础的，文中详细地分析了基于混合关联分析法的模具企业自明确模型的建立方法和数学模型，并且在系统中以向导的方式实现；同时提出了满足模具企业和模具客户“双赢”的优化模型。
客户行为是客户关系管理的又一重要内容，对客户的行为了解得越清楚，就越容易赢得客户。在本文的最后，详细地描述了对客户行为的研究情况，重新提出了一种客户行为模型，并且提出了基于客户企业资料的客户行为静态分析和基于对客户行为进行探测的客户动态行为分析的处理办法；提出了一种具有可操作性的解决办法：按照模糊决策方法对模具客户资料进行静态行为分析；然后在此基础上，通过对客户行为进行试探，不断对模型进行修正。
In the new era that customer is regarded as the core, customers become the most important resource for any enterprise. Enterprise must manage their customers effectively in order to survive in the severe strife. Following the manufacture ideas like MRPII (Manufacture Resource Plan) and ERP (Enterprise Resource Plan ), CRM(Customer Relationship Management) become the new hot point in the research field.
In this paper, first, the relationship between quotation and CRM is expatiated, and the advantage and disadvantage of the Mould & Die quotation system in use is analyzed; A new framework is provided serving mould enterprise and mould customer through building a Mould-industry center portal. This framework is feasible because there are two aspects of reasons. One is that we adopt the idea making the small Mould&Die enterprises buildup into a AVE(Agile Virtual Enterprise) based on their core capability. Another reason is that the character of Mould&Die enterprise in china is considered seriously. The multi-model DSS(Decision Support System) framework is provided for bidding system. At the same time, the function of every module is described in detail. The method and mathematics model to build Enterprise Self-explicated Mode based on Hybrid Conjoint Analysis is analyzed, which is realized in the way of wizard in the system; A win-win optimized model to satisfy both mould enterprise and mould customer is provided in the paper.
Customer behavior is another very important problem in CRM. The more you understand your customers, the more chance you will win the customers. In the last of the paper, the status of customer behavior is described in detail, and a new model of customer behavior is provided. Customer behavior is analyzed including customer static behavior which is based on information of customers and customer dynamic behavior which is based on some
questionnaires to detect the behavior. The customer static behavior is analyzed using fuzzy decision method. A method to explore and modify the customer dynamic behavior is put forward.
本文首先阐述了报价与客户关系管理的关系，分析了现存模具报价系统优缺点；按照让具有核心能力的小型模具企业组成动态联盟的思想，并且考虑到中国模具制造企业实际的特点，建立模具行业中心分别为模具企业和模具客户服务的系统框架；针对模具报价提出建立多模型的模具报价决策支持系统的体系结构，并详细分析和阐述了各个功能模块的功能；模具报价决策支持系统是以多模型为基础的，文中详细地分析了基于混合关联分析法的模具企业自明确模型的建立方法和数学模型，并且在系统中以向导的方式实现；同时提出了满足模具企业和模具客户“双赢”的优化模型。
客户行为是客户关系管理的又一重要内容，对客户的行为了解得越清楚，就越容易赢得客户。在本文的最后，详细地描述了对客户行为的研究情况，重新提出了一种客户行为模型，并且提出了基于客户企业资料的客户行为静态分析和基于对客户行为进行探测的客户动态行为分析的处理办法；提出了一种具有可操作性的解决办法：按照模糊决策方法对模具客户资料进行静态行为分析；然后在此基础上，通过对客户行为进行试探，不断对模型进行修正。
In the new era that customer is regarded as the core, customers become the most important resource for any enterprise. Enterprise must manage their customers effectively in order to survive in the severe strife. Following the manufacture ideas like MRPII (Manufacture Resource Plan) and ERP (Enterprise Resource Plan ), CRM(Customer Relationship Management) become the new hot point in the research field.
In this paper, first, the relationship between quotation and CRM is expatiated, and the advantage and disadvantage of the Mould & Die quotation system in use is analyzed; A new framework is provided serving mould enterprise and mould customer through building a Mould-industry center portal. This framework is feasible because there are two aspects of reasons. One is that we adopt the idea making the small Mould&Die enterprises buildup into a AVE(Agile Virtual Enterprise) based on their core capability. Another reason is that the character of Mould&Die enterprise in china is considered seriously. The multi-model DSS(Decision Support System) framework is provided for bidding system. At the same time, the function of every module is described in detail. The method and mathematics model to build Enterprise Self-explicated Mode based on Hybrid Conjoint Analysis is analyzed, which is realized in the way of wizard in the system; A win-win optimized model to satisfy both mould enterprise and mould customer is provided in the paper.
Customer behavior is another very important problem in CRM. The more you understand your customers, the more chance you will win the customers. In the last of the paper, the status of customer behavior is described in detail, and a new model of customer behavior is provided. Customer behavior is analyzed including customer static behavior which is based on information of customers and customer dynamic behavior which is based on some
questionnaires to detect the behavior. The customer static behavior is analyzed using fuzzy decision method. A method to explore and modify the customer dynamic behavior is put forward.
引文
[1] 马士华，林勇，陈志祥著 供应链管理 北京：机械工业出版社，2000，5
[2] Alex Berson、Stephen Smith、Kurt Thearling著 何奇等译构建面向CRM的数据挖掘应用．北京：人民邮电出版社，2001，8
[3] CRM特刊 北京：软件世界 2001．5
[4] 陈文伟编著《决策支持系统及其开发》(第二版)[M]北京．清华大学出版社，2000，2
[5] 吴石林等 型腔模具报价系统开发研究 模具工业 2000．8
[6] 曲中江等“注射模价格评估系统”模具工业 1999．7
[7] Galloway,Patricia D.;Nielsen,Kris R.Combining PURPA,prudence,and avoided cost rate design:A new cost engineering environment.Cost Engineering(Morgantown,West Virginia)v31n1 Jan 1989 p16-19
[8] Kahn,Edward P.;Stoft,Steven;Berman,Douglas;Grahame,Thomas Optimization methods for evaluating competitive bids from private producers.IEEE Transactions on Power Systems v6n2 May 1991 p729-735
[9] Seydel,John;Olson,David L.1990 Bids considering multiple criteria.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management v116n4 Dec 1990 p609-623
[10] Paul E.Green and Abba M.Krieger 1993 Conjoint Analysis With Product-Positioning Applications.Elsevier Science Publisher B.V.
[11] Gary L.LiLen Arvind Rangaswang 1998.Computer-Assisted Marketing Analysis and planning.Marketing Engineering
[12] Kersten,G.E.and Noronha,S.J.,1999.WWW-based Negotiation Support:Design,Implementation,and Use.Decision Support Systems,25,135-154.
[13] Rangaswamy,A.and Shell,G.R.,1997.Using Computers to Realize Joint Gains in Negotiations:Toward an"Electronic Bargaining Table".Management Science,43,8,1147-1163.
[14] Green,P.E.and Krieger,A.M.,1996.Individualized Hybrid Models for Conjoint Analysis.Management Science,42,6,850-867.
[15] 毛宁，陈庆新等，模具CPC体系结构及功能分析 模具工业 2001．4
[16] 谢建文 面向模具生产的DFM应用研究 广东工业大学硕士论文 2000．4
[17] 胡锦敏，张申生，支持企业动态联盟的敏捷工作流系统 计算机研究与发展 1999．12
[18] 张申生，高国军，动态联盟和敏捷供应链 计算机集成制造系统 1999．2
[19] 王凯，白庆华，基于工作流管理的动态联盟企业信息系统模型 计算机应用 1999．10
[20] 中国模具工业协会编《模具计价方法参考手册》北京 1996．3 P38～P76
[21] 胡运全 主编《运筹学教程》清华大学出版社 1998．6
[22] 陆璇 编著《应用统计》清华大学出版社 199912
[23] Thomas T.Nagle & Reed K.Holden著 赵平，杜辉译 定价策略与技巧(第二版)清华大学出版社 1999．3
[24] Choi,S.C.and Desarbo,W.S.,1993.Game Theoretic Derivations of Competitive Strategies in Conjoint Analysis[J].Marketing Letters,4,4,337-348.
[25] (美)雷法著；宋欣，孙小苄译．《谈判的艺术与科学[专著]：怎样解决争端怎样从讨价还价中得到最佳结果》北京：北京航空学院出版社，1987．11
[26] Kenneth E.runyon David W.stewart.Consumer behavior and the pratice of marketing(Third Edition)Merrill Publishing Company.1987
[27] Mahatoo,Winston H.(Winston Harnarayan)The dynamics of consumer behavior.T.H.Best Printing Company Limited
[28] 徐南荣等编著现代决策理论 南京：东南大学出版社，2000．12
[29] 菲利普．科特勒等著 市场营销导论 俞利军译 华夏出版5社2001年1月第1版
[30] 傅尔基，王芬编著现代市场营销学——理论与案例 中国轻工业出版社 2000年8月
[31] 钟师胜著《工程方案设计中的模糊理论与技术》哈尔滨工业大学出版社 2000．6
[32] 钟师胜，王执行，何新贵，基于模糊区间分和模糊重心的决策方法．系统工程理论与实践 1997．3
[33] 高亮，邵新宇等 协同产品商务[J] 中国机械工程 2001 Vol．12 No．
[34] 赵西金等 模具研制企业实施动态联盟的研究与事件 模具技术 2000．4
[35] 湛从昌等 液压故障的模糊综合评判 武汉冶金科技大学学报 1996．3
[36] 张义忠等 模糊推理和神经网络的集成在故障诊断中的研究 系统工程与电子 2000．3
[37] 阮雪榆等 中国模具工业和技术的发展 模具工业 2001．2
[38] 愈子骁 客户对注射模具报价的要求概述 模具工业 2000．4
[39] 李洪兴、汪群等编著．工程模糊数学方法及应用．天津：天津科学技术出版社，1993：P259～297
[40] 王纪林等等编著 概率论与数理统计．北京：科学出版社
[2] Alex Berson、Stephen Smith、Kurt Thearling著 何奇等译构建面向CRM的数据挖掘应用．北京：人民邮电出版社，2001，8
[3] CRM特刊 北京：软件世界 2001．5
[4] 陈文伟编著《决策支持系统及其开发》(第二版)[M]北京．清华大学出版社，2000，2
[5] 吴石林等 型腔模具报价系统开发研究 模具工业 2000．8
[6] 曲中江等“注射模价格评估系统”模具工业 1999．7
[7] Galloway,Patricia D.;Nielsen,Kris R.Combining PURPA,prudence,and avoided cost rate design:A new cost engineering environment.Cost Engineering(Morgantown,West Virginia)v31n1 Jan 1989 p16-19
[8] Kahn,Edward P.;Stoft,Steven;Berman,Douglas;Grahame,Thomas Optimization methods for evaluating competitive bids from private producers.IEEE Transactions on Power Systems v6n2 May 1991 p729-735
[9] Seydel,John;Olson,David L.1990 Bids considering multiple criteria.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management v116n4 Dec 1990 p609-623
[10] Paul E.Green and Abba M.Krieger 1993 Conjoint Analysis With Product-Positioning Applications.Elsevier Science Publisher B.V.
[11] Gary L.LiLen Arvind Rangaswang 1998.Computer-Assisted Marketing Analysis and planning.Marketing Engineering
[12] Kersten,G.E.and Noronha,S.J.,1999.WWW-based Negotiation Support:Design,Implementation,and Use.Decision Support Systems,25,135-154.
[13] Rangaswamy,A.and Shell,G.R.,1997.Using Computers to Realize Joint Gains in Negotiations:Toward an"Electronic Bargaining Table".Management Science,43,8,1147-1163.
[14] Green,P.E.and Krieger,A.M.,1996.Individualized Hybrid Models for Conjoint Analysis.Management Science,42,6,850-867.
[15] 毛宁，陈庆新等，模具CPC体系结构及功能分析 模具工业 2001．4
[16] 谢建文 面向模具生产的DFM应用研究 广东工业大学硕士论文 2000．4
[17] 胡锦敏，张申生，支持企业动态联盟的敏捷工作流系统 计算机研究与发展 1999．12
[18] 张申生，高国军，动态联盟和敏捷供应链 计算机集成制造系统 1999．2
[19] 王凯，白庆华，基于工作流管理的动态联盟企业信息系统模型 计算机应用 1999．10
[20] 中国模具工业协会编《模具计价方法参考手册》北京 1996．3 P38～P76
[21] 胡运全 主编《运筹学教程》清华大学出版社 1998．6
[22] 陆璇 编著《应用统计》清华大学出版社 199912
[23] Thomas T.Nagle & Reed K.Holden著 赵平，杜辉译 定价策略与技巧(第二版)清华大学出版社 1999．3
[24] Choi,S.C.and Desarbo,W.S.,1993.Game Theoretic Derivations of Competitive Strategies in Conjoint Analysis[J].Marketing Letters,4,4,337-348.
[25] (美)雷法著；宋欣，孙小苄译．《谈判的艺术与科学[专著]：怎样解决争端怎样从讨价还价中得到最佳结果》北京：北京航空学院出版社，1987．11
[26] Kenneth E.runyon David W.stewart.Consumer behavior and the pratice of marketing(Third Edition)Merrill Publishing Company.1987
[27] Mahatoo,Winston H.(Winston Harnarayan)The dynamics of consumer behavior.T.H.Best Printing Company Limited
[28] 徐南荣等编著现代决策理论 南京：东南大学出版社，2000．12
[29] 菲利普．科特勒等著 市场营销导论 俞利军译 华夏出版5社2001年1月第1版
[30] 傅尔基，王芬编著现代市场营销学——理论与案例 中国轻工业出版社 2000年8月
[31] 钟师胜著《工程方案设计中的模糊理论与技术》哈尔滨工业大学出版社 2000．6
[32] 钟师胜，王执行，何新贵，基于模糊区间分和模糊重心的决策方法．系统工程理论与实践 1997．3
[33] 高亮，邵新宇等 协同产品商务[J] 中国机械工程 2001 Vol．12 No．
[34] 赵西金等 模具研制企业实施动态联盟的研究与事件 模具技术 2000．4
[35] 湛从昌等 液压故障的模糊综合评判 武汉冶金科技大学学报 1996．3
[36] 张义忠等 模糊推理和神经网络的集成在故障诊断中的研究 系统工程与电子 2000．3
[37] 阮雪榆等 中国模具工业和技术的发展 模具工业 2001．2
[38] 愈子骁 客户对注射模具报价的要求概述 模具工业 2000．4
[39] 李洪兴、汪群等编著．工程模糊数学方法及应用．天津：天津科学技术出版社，1993：P259～297
[40] 王纪林等等编著 概率论与数理统计．北京：科学出版社
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