我国A股增发定价研究
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摘要
增发新股是上市公司通过资本市场取得后续融资的主要方式之一。然而在我国A股市场上,由于上市公司经常以超过股票价值的高价进行增发,投资者对增发产生了很大的抵触情绪,近半公司增发的新股上市不久就跌破发行价。如果这种情况不加以改变,将不利于股票市场的持续发展。因此,有必要对我国A股增发定价进行研究,针对高价增发产生的原因寻求相应的应对之策,以达到防范高价增发的目的。
     本文通过研究发现,高价增发的现象主要是由以下四个原因导致的:我国A股市场的非有效性,二元股权结构下的增发造成的每股价值减少,定价方式中存在一些脱离当前市场环境的不当措施,投资者缺乏评估股票价值的有效手段。正是在这四个原因的共同作用下,增发时确定的询价下限明显高于增发后股票的价值。对此,文章通过建立多因素定价模型对增发的询价区间进行了实证检验,证明了上述观点。
     鉴于A股市场效率的提高不可能在短期内达到,因此本文认为改进增发定价方式中的不合理之处和进一步完善多因素定价模型以辅助增发定价是当前防止高价增发的有效措施。然而要在根本上防止高价增发的出现,必须消除其赖以生存的“土壤”。要达到这个目的,我们必须不断地深化在监管、市场环境、公司治理、全流通等方面的改革,以提高A股市场效率促使增发定价向合理化发展。
Seasoned equity offering (SEO) is one of the main ways of refinancing in capital market for listed companies. However, the investors in A-share market disesteem SEOs so greatly that the prices of nearly half issuers of SEOs fall below the issue-prices soon after the new shares come into the market because these issuers usually issue with higher price than the value per share (VPS). It will hinder the continuously healthy development of A-share market if things go on like this. Therefore, it is necessary to do some research on the causes of overpricing of SEO and find suitable countermeasures to avoid the overpricing.
    It is discovered that the overpricing is caused by the poor efficiency of A-share market, the action of SEO on decreasing VPS under the duality ownership structure of Chinese listed companies, some improper measures unfit for the realities of A-share market in pricing mode and investors' lack of efficient ways to estimate the VPS. The lower limit of pricing interval is often higher than the VPS of the issuers after SEO under the common effect of these four factors. And this is proved by the empirical test on the pricing interval of SEO through the Multifactor Pricing Model built in this paper.
    Whereas the efficiency of A-share market can't be improve greatly in the short run, it is the right way to effectively avoid overpricing of SEO at present that we should improve the improper pricing measures in SEO and perfect the Multifactor Pricing Model and use the more perfect model in pricing of SEOs. However, we should deepen reform constantly by strengthening supervision, the whole environmental construction of A-share market and the administration structure of listed companies, etc. to improve the efficiency of A-share market. Only this can we eliminate the overpricing of SEO thoroughly.
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