经济发展中人力资本投资收益率变动趋势问题研究
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摘要
本文主要研究人力资本投资收益率的变动趋势问题,即人力资本投资的收益率到底是递减还是递增,如果说人力资本投资的收益率是递减的,那么如何解释跨国收入差距扩大与区域收入差距扩大的事实?传统的经济学理论认为,无论是物质资本还是人力资本,要素的边际报酬都呈现递减的趋势。落后国家投资物质资本和人力资本的收益或回报率要高于发达国家,具有追赶发达国家的潜在的优势。Psacharopoulos(1994)研究发现低收入国家、中低收入国家教育投资的社会收益率和私人收益率都要明显高于高收入国家。其中,低收入国家、中低收入国家和高收入国家对中等教育投资的社会收益率分别为0.152,0.134和0.103,私人收益率分别为0.193,0.187和0.128,都呈现出边际报酬递减的趋势。然而近些年来,随着新增长理论的发展和应用,不断有学者对这一假定提出质疑和挑战,例如,大量的对中国教育投资收益率的实证分析结果却表明,中国的教育投资收益率从高到低的次序依次是高等教育、中等教育和初等教育(张车伟,2006；李实和李文彬,1994；赖德胜,2000等),且教育投资收益率农村低于城市,呈现出要素报酬递增的趋势。
经验研究对传统假定提出了质疑和挑战,当现实的经验研究与传统的理论假定相违背时,我们不禁要问,到底是现实的经验研究方法和结论有问题,还是传统的理论假定有误。这不是一个孰是孰非的问题,很难简单地回答谁对谁错。本文使用动态面板数据和分位数回归分析方法,对国际和国内的人力资本投资收益率变动趋势进行全面分析,本文研究发现,人力资本投资收益率无论是从国际还是国内的数据来看,都呈现递减的趋势。部分实证研究之所以会得出收益率递增的结论,主要是没有考虑到人力资本投资的门槛效应,我们认为不论是物质资本还是人力资本投资,都存在一个最小投资规模,低于最小投资规模的投资都是无效的。正是因为存在最小投资规模,导致一些投资不足和资本稀缺的地区或国家的要素收益率低,而一些资本充足的国家和地区的要素收益率反而要更高,呈现出表面的报酬递增的趋势。本文研究表明,尽管存在部分落后国家教育投资收益率低的情况,但就全世界范围而言,人力资本的边际报酬和收益率,无论是从时间上还是空间上,都呈现递减的趋势。本文对中国的经验分析也表明,尽管短期内收入差距有扩大的趋势,但就长期而言,收入差距必定会缩小,现有的研究只是考虑到人力资本投资对工资水平的影响,而忽略了人力资本投资在人口流动和推进城镇化中的作用,而人口流动和城镇化又会对收入差距产生重要的影响,本文研究发现人口流动和城镇化对收入差距的影响呈现出倒U型关系,人口流动和城镇化扩张的初期会加剧收入不平等,但随着城镇化水平的提高,达到一定水平之后,又会减缓收入差距的扩大。因此简单地用收入差距扩大来否定边际报酬递减可能是错误的。本文的结论是,人力资本投资的回报整体而言呈递减的趋势,后进国家在人力资本投资方面仍然是具有潜在优势的,但是投资必须达到一定的规模,这种潜在的优势才能发挥出来,否则投资就是无效的,后进国家将因为投资的低回报而陷入贫困陷阱。
Late-development advantage means that the poorer countries have important advantage that the first pioneers along the path of industrilization did not, which means that relative backwardness itself may aid development. This paper do research in late-development advantage in human capital, which we reckon that it is the foundation of the national wealth. Late-development advantage of human capital means that relative backwardness itself may creat learning opportunities for less developed countries. We will prove that human capital returns are decreasing just like physical capital, along with the increase of human capital, human capital returns will decrease. Hence, the returns of human capital in late-development countries are higher than in developed countries. Psacharopoulos (1994) shows that the social returns of education in low income countries, middle-low income countries and high income countries are 0.152,0.134 and 0.103 respectively, and the private returns are 0.193,0.187 and 0.128 respectively, the returns of education are decreasing along with income. Although, in recent years, some researcher start to doubt this conclusion that human capital returns are decreasing, they argue that it may be increase instead(See e.g., Zhang 2006, Li and Li 1994, Nai 2000, et al).
There is a inconformity between the empirical analysis and the traditional assumption, and we want to kown that whether is the empitical anaysis is wrong or the traditional assumption, this question is very difficlut to answer, because the relationship between them and the reasons are complicated. This paper give a prove that there is a minimum investment scale in both human capital and physical capial, any investment below this scale is noneffective. It is because of this minimum investment scale, the poor countries do not have enough capital to invest and cann't borrow enough money, so the investment on education in poor countries are noneffective, this misleading the researchers and make them give a wrong conclusion that the human capital returns are increasing. Insteadly, this paper try to give a system analysis about the returns of human capital, our positive analysis shows that the human capital returns are decreasing wehther through the international data analysis or the chinese data analysis, thus the late-development advantage of human capital do exist. The empirical analysis, which argue that the human capital returns are increasing, ignored the influence of education on population migration, which will affect the income distribution and the regional economic difference, and finally let them make a wrong conclusion.
经验研究对传统假定提出了质疑和挑战,当现实的经验研究与传统的理论假定相违背时,我们不禁要问,到底是现实的经验研究方法和结论有问题,还是传统的理论假定有误。这不是一个孰是孰非的问题,很难简单地回答谁对谁错。本文使用动态面板数据和分位数回归分析方法,对国际和国内的人力资本投资收益率变动趋势进行全面分析,本文研究发现,人力资本投资收益率无论是从国际还是国内的数据来看,都呈现递减的趋势。部分实证研究之所以会得出收益率递增的结论,主要是没有考虑到人力资本投资的门槛效应,我们认为不论是物质资本还是人力资本投资,都存在一个最小投资规模,低于最小投资规模的投资都是无效的。正是因为存在最小投资规模,导致一些投资不足和资本稀缺的地区或国家的要素收益率低,而一些资本充足的国家和地区的要素收益率反而要更高,呈现出表面的报酬递增的趋势。本文研究表明,尽管存在部分落后国家教育投资收益率低的情况,但就全世界范围而言,人力资本的边际报酬和收益率,无论是从时间上还是空间上,都呈现递减的趋势。本文对中国的经验分析也表明,尽管短期内收入差距有扩大的趋势,但就长期而言,收入差距必定会缩小,现有的研究只是考虑到人力资本投资对工资水平的影响,而忽略了人力资本投资在人口流动和推进城镇化中的作用,而人口流动和城镇化又会对收入差距产生重要的影响,本文研究发现人口流动和城镇化对收入差距的影响呈现出倒U型关系,人口流动和城镇化扩张的初期会加剧收入不平等,但随着城镇化水平的提高,达到一定水平之后,又会减缓收入差距的扩大。因此简单地用收入差距扩大来否定边际报酬递减可能是错误的。本文的结论是,人力资本投资的回报整体而言呈递减的趋势,后进国家在人力资本投资方面仍然是具有潜在优势的,但是投资必须达到一定的规模,这种潜在的优势才能发挥出来,否则投资就是无效的,后进国家将因为投资的低回报而陷入贫困陷阱。
Late-development advantage means that the poorer countries have important advantage that the first pioneers along the path of industrilization did not, which means that relative backwardness itself may aid development. This paper do research in late-development advantage in human capital, which we reckon that it is the foundation of the national wealth. Late-development advantage of human capital means that relative backwardness itself may creat learning opportunities for less developed countries. We will prove that human capital returns are decreasing just like physical capital, along with the increase of human capital, human capital returns will decrease. Hence, the returns of human capital in late-development countries are higher than in developed countries. Psacharopoulos (1994) shows that the social returns of education in low income countries, middle-low income countries and high income countries are 0.152,0.134 and 0.103 respectively, and the private returns are 0.193,0.187 and 0.128 respectively, the returns of education are decreasing along with income. Although, in recent years, some researcher start to doubt this conclusion that human capital returns are decreasing, they argue that it may be increase instead(See e.g., Zhang 2006, Li and Li 1994, Nai 2000, et al).
There is a inconformity between the empirical analysis and the traditional assumption, and we want to kown that whether is the empitical anaysis is wrong or the traditional assumption, this question is very difficlut to answer, because the relationship between them and the reasons are complicated. This paper give a prove that there is a minimum investment scale in both human capital and physical capial, any investment below this scale is noneffective. It is because of this minimum investment scale, the poor countries do not have enough capital to invest and cann't borrow enough money, so the investment on education in poor countries are noneffective, this misleading the researchers and make them give a wrong conclusion that the human capital returns are increasing. Insteadly, this paper try to give a system analysis about the returns of human capital, our positive analysis shows that the human capital returns are decreasing wehther through the international data analysis or the chinese data analysis, thus the late-development advantage of human capital do exist. The empirical analysis, which argue that the human capital returns are increasing, ignored the influence of education on population migration, which will affect the income distribution and the regional economic difference, and finally let them make a wrong conclusion.
引文
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9 Samuel Bowles, Steven N. Durlauf, and Karla Hoff.2006. Poverty Traps. Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press. Page1-13.
10日本内阁府2011年2月14日最新公布数据,日本2010年的GDP折算成美元约为54742亿美元,比中国同期名义GDP(58786亿美元)少大约4000亿美元,自1968年以来首次让出“第二经济大国”之位。
13根据国家统计局2008年2月28日发布的《2007年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》计算所得。
14郭熙保：《农业剩余劳动及其转移问题：理论思考与中国的经验》,《世界经济》,2002年第12期。
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17陈忠斌,《人力资源后发优势研究》,博士论文,2005年。
18郭熙保、胡汉昌：《后发优势研究述评》,《山东社会科学》,2002年第3期
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