摘要
近些年随着我国经济的快速发展,对水电、交通、电信以及其他基础设施项目的投资需求急剧增长。PPP模式作为一种有效吸引私人资金和技术的创新性融资模式也于近十几年开始在我国迅速发展起来。但是,PPP项目唯一性、长期性和不完备契约性的特点使其面临着比以往更多的风险,而参与方利益目标的差异性又使得项目的风险分担变得异常复杂。因此,如何实现风险在项目参与方之间的合理分担,实现PPP项目物有所值的目标,确保PPP模式的成功实施变得尤其重要,也成为了PPP领域内的研究热点和难点。本文以交通PPP项目为对象,针对风险分担的一系列问题展开研究。
首先,从PPP模式的可行性和效用性入手,通过对大量文献地分析,回顾了PPP风险分担相关问题的国内外研究现状;进一步梳理了PPP的内涵、特征以及应用进展,为深入了解PPP模式并进一步研究有效风险分担奠定了理论基础。其次,基于扎根理论研究方法,归纳出了我国交通PPP项目所面临的46条风险因素;基于谈判协商的思想设计了三阶段风险分担流程,并充分考虑国内外PPP发展程度和交通工程项目的特征,归纳总结出了基于多方共赢的风险分担的框架,为今后我国交通PPP项目的风险分担提供基准参考。
再次,从PPP项目中参与方的合作性和风险因素的不确定性出发,构建了基于随机合作博弈理论的共担风险的最优分担比例决策模型。该模型用风险偏好系数反映参与方对风险的承担意愿,将传统合作博弈中的Shapley值的权重设定为决策变量,不但实现了项目收益最大的目标,而且通过风险从规避方向较不规避方的转移,满足了分担方的参与目标。经过案例分析表明,该模型确定的最优风险分担比例使项目的总风险明显降低。
最后,从风险分担的角度,研究了PPP项目中的政府担保、调价机制和特许期调整这三个主要决策问题。基于实物期权理论构建了考虑政府担保、交通量上限和政府支出上限策略的项目现金流模型,通过蒙特卡洛随机模拟确定了不同担保水平和政府承担风险比例的对应关系;基于调整幅度和调整时间间隔构建了价格调整模型,通过数值模拟确定了不同调整参数对应的政府承担风险比例;基于私人方和政府方的利益目标构建了特许期的调整模型,通过对特许期的调整实现双方对风险的合理分担。对这三个问题的研究可以为政府选择合适的风险承担方式,确定合理的风险补偿水平提供决策支持。
In recent years, with the fast development of Chinese economy, the demand for power, roads, telecommunications and other infrastructure has risen sharply. As an innovative financing mode, Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) can attract capital and technology of private agency effetely, and which is developed at a very rapid rate in the recent decade. However, the characters of PPP project such as uniqueness, long-term and the incompleteness of the contract make it facing more risks than ever before, furthermore, the process of risk allocation becomes even more complex for the reason of the difference of objection among each participant. Therefore, how to allocate the risks rationally among the participant, how to achieve the objection of Value for Money of PPP model and make the PPP implemented successfully have become especially important, which has also become the difficult and hot spots in PPP fields. This paper takes the PPP project as research object and focus on a series of problems about risk allocation.
Firstly, starting with the feasibility and utility of PPP model, the paper reviewed the research situation of risk allocation of PPP model at home and abroad in terms of analyses of many references; then further combed the connotation, characteristic and application development of PPP, which lay the theoretic foundation for an in-depth insight into PPP model and the further research of risk allocation.
Secondly, based on the grounded theory research method, the paper summed up 46 risk factors in china traffic PPP project; a three stage allocate proceeding was designed based on the thought of negotiation, and then a risk allocation framework is summarized on the base of win-win relationship. The framework both considerate the development level of PPP at home and abroad and the features of traffic project, which can provide an standard and reference for future risk allocation in PPP traffic projects.
Thirdly, starting with the cooperative of participant and the uncertainty of the risk factors, the paper constructed an optimal allocation proportion decision model based on the stochastic cooperative game theory. The model takes the risk preference coefficient as the reflection of the willingness of the participant, makes the weight of Shapley value in standard cooperation game as the decision variable. It can not only achieve the objection to maximize the project revenue, but also satisfied the objection of participant by the way of transfer the risk to the less risk avoidance part. The analysis of numerical case showed that the optimal allocation proportion decided by this model has declined the total risk of project.
At last, form the subject of risk allocation, the paper studied the three major topics in PPP project, which are government guarantee, tariff adjustment and concession adjustment. An project inflow model is constructed based on government traffic guarantee strategy, traffic volume ceiling strategy and government subside cap strategy, and then the corresponding relation between government guarantee and risk allocation proportion is established by the way of Monte-Carlo random simulation; an tariff adjustment model is constructed based on adjustment level and adjustment interval, and then the correspondence of different parameter and the proportion assumed by government is identified through numerical simulation; a concession adjustment model is constructed based on the beneficial objection of private and public and the rationally risk allocation is achieved by the adjustment of concession. The research of these three topics can provide a decision support for the government to choose suitable risk assume method and decide the rationale risk compensation level.
引文
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