基于可靠性的城市交通网络分析
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摘要
城市交通系统是维持城市机能正常运行的重要网络系统之一，一个稳定、高效的道路交通网络对城市至关重要。然而，实际交通网络的供给和需求均存在很大的不确定性，忽视交通供需的不确定性将给出行决策及道路网络建设管理带来风险。本文围绕着如何在不确定环境下提高道路用户出行质量、获得可靠性好的城市交通网络开展研究。
在路网可靠性评价指标方面：基于概率论方法研究了交通供给和交通需求随机性的刻画；分析了容量降级路网路径出行时间分布特征；提出了路网服务水平可靠性评价指标，采用最可能状态算法建立了服务水平可靠性评估模型。
在路网可靠性评价方法方面：考虑路径流量和路段出行时间的相关性提出了对数正态分布需求路网出行时间可靠性评估方法；以OD对出行时间可靠性为约束，运用双层规划建立了考虑时间可靠性的容量可靠性评估模型；基于CornishFisher渐近展开获得给定可靠度水平下的路径出行时间预算，运用变分不等式技术建立了满足时间可靠度要求的服务水平可靠性评估方法；利用信息诱导下的混合路径选择模型分析了信息系统的市场渗透率及信息质量对可靠性的影响。
在不确定环境下的出行选择方面：以出行时间均值为路径选择准则，针对容量降级网络建立了概率用户均衡分配模型；从减小出行时间、出行费用和提高可靠度的角度定义路段广义费用，分析了ATIS影响下不同的路径选择准则对降级路网交通流分布的影响；考虑具有不同时间价值用户的风险行为，构建降级路网多用户类全局弹性需求随机分配变分不等式模型，分析了出行者风险取向及容量降级程度对全局需求的影响；将条件风险价值理论引入出行路径决策中，在组合出行决策的层次选择结构下运用离散选择理论构建了出行路径和出行方式组合决策模型，分析了路网的不确定性对方式分担率的影响。
在路网可靠性优化方面：针对容量降级路网运用风险评价理论构建了基于失效概率和失效后果的关键路段识别算法；采用复杂网络理论提出了基于级联失效的节点重要度测算方法，分析了不同的出行网络结构和不同的路径选择模型对节点重要度的影响；将交通供需的不确定性引入网络设计中，基于对数正态分布的需求和截尾正态分布的容量构建了考虑随机供求共同作用下的连续均衡网络设计双层规划模型，提出了基于蒙特卡洛仿真的遗传求解算法并开展了算例分析。
Urban traffic system is one of the most vital network systems which can maintaincity function work well. A stable and efficient traffic network is of crucial importanceto a city. However, for a real road network, traffic supply and traffic demand arealways uncertain, ignoring the uncertainties of traffic system will bring risks totravelers’trip choices and the construction and management of road networks. Thispaper aims to obtain a more reliable urban traffic network in an uncertain environment,at the same time, improve the trip quality of individual traveler. The main contents ofthe paper are described as follows.
The researches on road network reliability evaluation index: we firstly apply theprobability theory to depict the characteristics of random supplies and demands andanalyze the probability feature of route travel time in a capacity degradable roadnetwork. Based on this, we propose the level of service reliability index for stochasticroad network and establish an evaluation model for Los reliability with the mostprobable states generation algorithm.
The researches on road network reliability evaluation methods: firstly, a traveltime reliability evaluation method is proposed considering the correlative relationshipsbetween route flows and link travel times. Secondly, we establish a road networkcapacity reliability model by using bi-level programming, in which the OD pair traveltime reliability is introduced in the bi-level model as a constraint. Thirdly, we use theCornish Fisher asymptotic expansion obtain the route travel time budget with aspecified travel time reliability requirement, then set up a Los reliability calculationmodel considering travel time reliability based on the variational inequality technique.Finally, the mixed road choice model is adopted to analyze the influence of the marketpenetration and information quality of ATIS on road network reliability.
The researches on trip choices under uncertain environment: a probabilistic userequilibrium traffic assignment model for capacity degradable road network is proposedwith a route choice criterion that the mean route travel time is minimized. Then, wedefine the link generalized travel cost from the point of view of decreasing travel time,travel cost and enhancing travel reliability, and further carry out some analyses of thedifferent route choice criteria on degradable network traffic flow distribution underATIS. Moreover, a stochastic traffic assignment model with multiple user classes andglobal elastic demands is formulated as an equivalent variational inequality. In the model, the travelers are differentiated into several classes by their own value of timeand different user class has different travel time reliability requirement. By introducingthe conditional value at risk theory in the process of route decision, we study thecombined travel route and travel mode choice model based on a hierarchical structureof the combined trip decision in conjunction with the discrete choice theory, sensitivityanalyses for model parameters on mode split rate are carried out by numericalexperiments.
The researches on road network reliability optimization: a critical link recognitionalgorithm is established based on the failure probability and failure consequence byusing risk assessment theory. Then, we propose a measurement method for theimportance of network node with complex network theory, and further analyze theimpact of different travel network structure and different travel route choice model onnode importance. For uncertain road network design, we present a continuousequilibrium network design bi-level programming model considering stochastic supplyand demand simultaneously, in which the traffic demand is described as log-normaldistributed variable and the link capacity is assumed to follow a truncated normaldistribution. A Monte Carlo simulation-based genetic algorithm is provided to solvethe proposed network design model and numerical study on a small example roadnetwork is carried out with the algorithm.
在路网可靠性评价指标方面：基于概率论方法研究了交通供给和交通需求随机性的刻画；分析了容量降级路网路径出行时间分布特征；提出了路网服务水平可靠性评价指标，采用最可能状态算法建立了服务水平可靠性评估模型。
在路网可靠性评价方法方面：考虑路径流量和路段出行时间的相关性提出了对数正态分布需求路网出行时间可靠性评估方法；以OD对出行时间可靠性为约束，运用双层规划建立了考虑时间可靠性的容量可靠性评估模型；基于CornishFisher渐近展开获得给定可靠度水平下的路径出行时间预算，运用变分不等式技术建立了满足时间可靠度要求的服务水平可靠性评估方法；利用信息诱导下的混合路径选择模型分析了信息系统的市场渗透率及信息质量对可靠性的影响。
在不确定环境下的出行选择方面：以出行时间均值为路径选择准则，针对容量降级网络建立了概率用户均衡分配模型；从减小出行时间、出行费用和提高可靠度的角度定义路段广义费用，分析了ATIS影响下不同的路径选择准则对降级路网交通流分布的影响；考虑具有不同时间价值用户的风险行为，构建降级路网多用户类全局弹性需求随机分配变分不等式模型，分析了出行者风险取向及容量降级程度对全局需求的影响；将条件风险价值理论引入出行路径决策中，在组合出行决策的层次选择结构下运用离散选择理论构建了出行路径和出行方式组合决策模型，分析了路网的不确定性对方式分担率的影响。
在路网可靠性优化方面：针对容量降级路网运用风险评价理论构建了基于失效概率和失效后果的关键路段识别算法；采用复杂网络理论提出了基于级联失效的节点重要度测算方法，分析了不同的出行网络结构和不同的路径选择模型对节点重要度的影响；将交通供需的不确定性引入网络设计中，基于对数正态分布的需求和截尾正态分布的容量构建了考虑随机供求共同作用下的连续均衡网络设计双层规划模型，提出了基于蒙特卡洛仿真的遗传求解算法并开展了算例分析。
Urban traffic system is one of the most vital network systems which can maintaincity function work well. A stable and efficient traffic network is of crucial importanceto a city. However, for a real road network, traffic supply and traffic demand arealways uncertain, ignoring the uncertainties of traffic system will bring risks totravelers’trip choices and the construction and management of road networks. Thispaper aims to obtain a more reliable urban traffic network in an uncertain environment,at the same time, improve the trip quality of individual traveler. The main contents ofthe paper are described as follows.
The researches on road network reliability evaluation index: we firstly apply theprobability theory to depict the characteristics of random supplies and demands andanalyze the probability feature of route travel time in a capacity degradable roadnetwork. Based on this, we propose the level of service reliability index for stochasticroad network and establish an evaluation model for Los reliability with the mostprobable states generation algorithm.
The researches on road network reliability evaluation methods: firstly, a traveltime reliability evaluation method is proposed considering the correlative relationshipsbetween route flows and link travel times. Secondly, we establish a road networkcapacity reliability model by using bi-level programming, in which the OD pair traveltime reliability is introduced in the bi-level model as a constraint. Thirdly, we use theCornish Fisher asymptotic expansion obtain the route travel time budget with aspecified travel time reliability requirement, then set up a Los reliability calculationmodel considering travel time reliability based on the variational inequality technique.Finally, the mixed road choice model is adopted to analyze the influence of the marketpenetration and information quality of ATIS on road network reliability.
The researches on trip choices under uncertain environment: a probabilistic userequilibrium traffic assignment model for capacity degradable road network is proposedwith a route choice criterion that the mean route travel time is minimized. Then, wedefine the link generalized travel cost from the point of view of decreasing travel time,travel cost and enhancing travel reliability, and further carry out some analyses of thedifferent route choice criteria on degradable network traffic flow distribution underATIS. Moreover, a stochastic traffic assignment model with multiple user classes andglobal elastic demands is formulated as an equivalent variational inequality. In the model, the travelers are differentiated into several classes by their own value of timeand different user class has different travel time reliability requirement. By introducingthe conditional value at risk theory in the process of route decision, we study thecombined travel route and travel mode choice model based on a hierarchical structureof the combined trip decision in conjunction with the discrete choice theory, sensitivityanalyses for model parameters on mode split rate are carried out by numericalexperiments.
The researches on road network reliability optimization: a critical link recognitionalgorithm is established based on the failure probability and failure consequence byusing risk assessment theory. Then, we propose a measurement method for theimportance of network node with complex network theory, and further analyze theimpact of different travel network structure and different travel route choice model onnode importance. For uncertain road network design, we present a continuousequilibrium network design bi-level programming model considering stochastic supplyand demand simultaneously, in which the traffic demand is described as log-normaldistributed variable and the link capacity is assumed to follow a truncated normaldistribution. A Monte Carlo simulation-based genetic algorithm is provided to solvethe proposed network design model and numerical study on a small example roadnetwork is carried out with the algorithm.
引文
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