摘要
随着世界经济的快速发展，以传统矿物质为主的能源消费量日益增加，废弃物排放量急剧上升，环境问题也日益严重，这些已经成为全球经济发展和人们生活质量水平提高的一大阻碍。各国为实现经济的可持续发展，纷纷将目光转向新能源的研发和利用。在此背景下研究我国新能源消费与经济增长间的关系，对我国制定新能源政策，发展以新能源为主的低碳经济具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文的主要研究内容与结果有以下几个方面。
（1）本文对当前国内外新能源发展状况进行了概述。首先分析了国内外能源消费结构的变化，其次介绍了中国及国外新能源的发展和利用状况，最后对我国新能源消费的特征进行描述。
（2）本文将我国能源总消费量作为第三种生产要素考虑到Cobb-Douglas生产函数中，选取1978‐2010年间相关经济数据对包括新能源在内的我国能源总消费量与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。然后运用协整理论对我国能源消费为与经济增长之间关系进行了检验，结果表明我国能源消费与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系，并建立了长期均衡模型。通过运用Granger因果关系检验证明了我国能源总消费量对经济增长存在着单向因果关系。
（3）研究了以风能、水能以及核能为主的新能源消费量与经济增长之间的关系，运用协整以及修正误差模型理论证明了我国新能源消费与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系，并建立了长、短期经济增长模型。通过Granger因果关系检验证明了我国新能源消费与经济增长之间在10%的显著水平先存在着双向因果关系，得出我国新能源产业发展与国家经济的发展相互影响的重要结论。
（4）通过建立以新能源、常规能源、实际资本总积累量和劳动力投入四要素变量的超越对数生产函数，选取1978-2010年相关经济数据运用SPSS19.0统计软件进行了实证分析，求出各要素每年的产出弹性和对经济增长的实际贡献率，重点对新能源与常规能源的贡献率差异性进行了分析。
（5）最后，结合前人研究观点，对我国新能源产业建设发展提出了几点建议，并提出了新能源与经济增长之间需要进一步研究的问题。
Energy consumption which based on the traditional mineral is increasing day byday with the rapid development of world economy.It leads to the sharp rise in thevolume of waste emissions and the increasingly serious environmental problems,which have become a major obstacle for the global economic development andimprovement of life quality.In order to realize the sustainable development ofeconomy,many countries have turned to the development and utilization of newenergy.In this background,the relationship between China's new energy consumptionand economic growth has important theoretical and practical significance forformulation of new energy policy and development of new energy-based low-carboneconomy.The main research contents and results are the following.
(1)This article summarizes the development situation on the current domesticand international new energy industry.Firstly it analyzes the changes of domestic andforeign energy consumption structure,and then follows to introduce the developmentand utilization of world and China's new energy,lastly represents the characteristics ofChina's new energy consumption.
(2)This paper considerers China's total energy consumption as the third kind ofproduction factor into Cobb-Douglas production function and then studies empiricallythe relation between the China's total energy consumption and economic growth,which uses relevant economic data from1978to2010years including new energy.Then it tests the relationship between China's energy consumption and economicgrowth through the Cointegration theory.The results show that there exists long-termequilibrium relation between China's energy consumption and economic growth andestablish long-term equilibrium model.Through the use of Granger causality test itproves that China's total energy consumption has a one-way causal relationship oneconomic growth.
(3)This paper also studies the relationship between new energy consumptionmainly including wind energy,hydropower and nuclear power,and economic growth.It proves that China's new energy consumption and economic growth has long-term equilibrium relationship by using cointegration and error correction model theory,then builds long-term and short-term economic growth model.By the Grangercausality test there has two-way causal relationship between new energy consumptionand economic growth in a significant level of10%,so it draws an importantconclusion that the development of China's new energy industry and nationaleconomy influences each other.
(4)This study establishes translog production function which includes fourvariables,such as new energy,conventional energy sources,the actual total capitalaccumulation and labor input.Then this paper solves empirically the practicalcontribution rate for the output elasticity of four variables every year to economicgrowth by statistic software of SPSS19.0using relevant economic data from1978to2010years.The focus is the differences of contribution rate for new energy andconventional energy which are analyzed.
(5)Finally,this paper puts forward some useful suggestions for the developmentof China's new energy industry combined with the previous researches,and proposesthe problems which need to be further studied between new energy and economicgrowth.
引文
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