摘要
在突发事件的应急处置过程中,事先制定应急预案是一个重要的环节。目前我国各级政府和一些重点行业都已经编制形成了特定领域针对特定突发事件的应急预案,但是从应急预案的编制和完善情况来看,还存在诸多不利于提升应急管理能力的弊端：如针对单一事件制定的应急预案无法应对复杂突发事件并发或次生情形下的需求；文本型的预案包含的信息繁杂、可操作性差；对预案和工序的启动或关闭等问题缺乏指导建议；对预案的完善缺乏针对性措施等。因此,相对突发事件应急处置的复杂性、重时效和强调动态应对的显著特征,仅仅依靠人工进行编制和完善的应急预案显然无法满足应急处置的实际需求,而随着社会信息化水平的不断提升,我国政府和一些重点行业采用计算机和信息技术的条件已经逐步成熟,其在应急管理的信息采集、信息传递和信息加工等方面正逐渐做出尝试,并具备了一定的积累。本文围绕应急预案管理中的若干重要问题,在对研究问题的现实背景和理论背景进行分析的基础上,从应急预案的事前-事中-事后管理角度,提出了事前如何生成应急预案、事中如何调整预案以及事后如何完善预案的研究问题。针对第一个问题本文从不同行业和领域对应急处置中资源约束条件的考虑出发,在第三章研究了无资源约束条件下的应急处置流程重构问题,在第四章研究了有资源约束条件下的应急预案重构问题：针对第二个问题,本文在第五章分别从预案和工序两个层面构建了调整执行状态的模型和方法,从而为应对预案执行过程中的需求变化提供了依据；针对第三个问题,本文在第六章构建了基于预案执行演练信息的风险传导分析方法,为发现和完善预案中的薄弱环节提供了可行的途径。本文研究的主要问题和结论如下：
(1)由于突发事件发展演变的复杂性,应急管理面对的常常是多种突发事件短时间间隔爆发的复杂局面,传统的依靠人工编制的、针对单一灾种的应急预案已经无法满足突发事件现实应急管理的需要,在多个单灾种预案基础上通过计算机在线重构的形式快速生成应对多灾种突发事件的新应急预案成为迫切需要解决的问题。而这一问题的难点在于如何处理多个预案同时启动时可能出现的措施重复与工作逻辑关系不清晰等问题,而传统文本型的预案如何表达为便于计算机识别和运算的形式也是需要解决的问题。本文第三章在采用了基于有向图和邻接矩阵的数字化应急处置流程表达和存储方式,通过分析多类突发事件并发或次生时的应急处置流程重构的主要问题和难点,设计了应急处置流程重构算法,最后通过一个航空公司两类突发事件应急处置流程进行重构的示例对算法的实现做了说明。重构结果表明,应急处置流程重构可以为无资源约束条件下的多类突发事件并发或引发次生突发事件时提供实时、高效的应急决策辅助。
(2)从应急预案的编制和使用情况来看,目前的大多数预案仍然是通过对特定类型突发事件的应对经验进行总结得出的应急处置工作流程,这为应急管理者提供了基本的决策支持,但由于在生产领域的应急处置中,应急资源存在限制和约束的情形非常普遍,而缺乏资源约束的预案在实际操作层将面临重重障碍。由于突发事件发展演变的复杂性和不确定性,当突发事件爆发后,相对突发的、不确定的需求,应急资源在一定时间窗口内的种类和数量往往是有限的,因此,在突发事件爆发初期,需要根据事件的特点及所能获取的来自事件和资源状态的信息,在通过重构生成新的应急处置流程的基础上,进一步考虑预案重构过程中具体工序层面的资源调度和安排问题。本文第四章在第三章引入预案的网络计划表达的基础上,进一步为工序加入所用资源种类、数量以及完成时间的约束,在考虑资源总量限制的约束下,从提升应急管理的处置效率和处置效果出发,研究了多类突发事件并发或次生时,通过计算机在线重构方式生成应急预案资源调度方案的方法。在对制定应急预案资源调度方案的步骤、目标和考虑因素做出说明的基础上,针对并行和互斥两类典型的情景合并问题分别构建了模型,并设计了相应的启发式算法,通过一个航空公司的应急预案重构的示例对重构的实现过程做了阐述,为提升应急管理者的应急处置效率提供了支持。
(3)应急预案是为了满足突发事件发生时可能出现的应对需求而预先制定的应急处置方案,具有明确的处置目标和适用条件。由于突发事件的发生和发展演变具有很强的不确定性,面临实时变化的应急处置需求,处于执行过程中的整体预案或其中的部分工序可能不再适用,及时地关闭这些不再适用的预案或工序对提升整体应急处置效率具有重要意义。本文第五章从预案和工序两个层面对应急预案的执行状态优化问题分别加以研究,解决了特定时刻的预案或工序的执行状态选择问题,为根据突发事件的实时信息调整应急预案和工序的执行状态提供决策辅助。
(4)应急预案的完善除了需要从完备性、有效性等方面对预案内容进行整体评价改善之外,还需要在微观操作层面提供针对具体工序的评价改善方案。在应急预案的应急处置流程中,尤其是在资源准备阶段的工作流程中,存在大量以信息上传下达和信息加工为主要工作内容的工序,这些工序之间的信息传递质量在很大程度上决定了预案执行的最终效果,而不同工序输出特定类型错误信息的数量也在一定程度上反映了工序在流程网络中的相对薄弱程度。从风险分析的角度对预案的历史执行和演练信息加以分析,描述和比较存在密切关联的多个工序输出错误信息的水平,将对从工序层面有针对性地完善预案提供帮助。本文第六章在定义预案执行过程中的信息出错风险的基础上,构建了基于错误信息流量平衡的风险评估模型,在风险传导的定量描述和测度方面做出了新的尝试和探索。
The development of contingency plans in advance is the most important part of emergency response. Nowadays, our country and local governments, even some key industries have prepared several kinds of emergency plans for specific events, but there are still many drawbacks to impede enhancing emergency management capabilities, such as developed emergency plans for a single event cannot cope with the requirements of complex emergencies concurrent or secondary case; the text plans contained complex information but with poor operability; lack of recommendations in executing state decision of plan and processes; lack of targeted measures for improving the plans. Therefore, the traditional ways of preparing and improving emergency plans by manual works are apparently unable to meet the actual needs of the emergency response which requires quick and dynamic response. Meanwhile, as the level of informatization upgrading, computer and information technology has gradually matured in governments and key industries, and its emergency management information acquisition, information transmission and information processing are gradually made to try and have a certain amount of accumulation. This dissertation researched on several important issues in emergency plan management, based on the analysis of realistic and theoretical background, three main issues were refined from the lifecycle management of emergency plan as:how to generate the plan before emergency happened, how to adjust the plan while the emergency requirement changing, and afterwards how to improve the plan. Starting for the first issue, this dissertation studied two kinds of emergency plan reconstruction:the emergency procedures reconstruction without resource constraints in chapter3and the emergency plan reconstruction with resource constraints in chapter4; in chapter5, the second issue were discussed for executing state optimization of plans and processes, which provides a basis to respond to the changing needs of the plan implementation process; for the third issue, chapter6explored a feasible way for the discovery and improve the weak link in the plan which based on the executing and drilling data. The main issues and conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Due to the complexity of emergencies evolution, emergency management always faces the complicated situation that many kinds of events outbreak in a short interval, the manual preparation and plan for a single event have already been unable to meet the realistic needs of emergency response, which needs a way to on-line reconstruct plans based on several single plans. This issue of the difficulty lies in how to deal with the problem of measures that may started when more than one plan need at the same time, which may lead to a repeat or fuzzy logical relationship, other more, the traditional text-based expression of emergency plan need to be transferred into the form that computer can recognize and easily compute. In Chapter3, the emergency procedures were expressed as directed graph and adjacency matrix, the main problems and difficulties in reconstructing multiple emergency procedures of concurrent or secondary emergencies were discussed. Then we presented a reconstruction algorithm to achieve on line reconstruction of concurrent or secondary emergency procedures. An example of civil airline was given to illustrate the implementing steps of this algorithm. The reconstruction results showed that the emergency procedures reconstruction can provide a real-time and efficient decision support for emergency disposal without resource constraints.
(2) From the preparation and use condition of emergency plan, currently, most emergency procedures are based on the experience of specific types of emergency, which provide basic decision support for emergency managers. However, with the limitation of resources, the operation always faces obstacles in industry field. Because of the complexity and uncertainty of emergency, the type and quantity of resources are always limited in a certain time window, in the beginning of emergency, according to the characteristics of the event and resource status information, through the reconstruction on the basis of a new emergency process, the specific process level of resource scheduling in the reconstruction process should be considered. On the basis of the expression by the introduction of the preplan's network plan in Chapter3of this dissertation, it's added to resource types, quantity, and completion time constraints in Chapter4, and study the many types of emergencies concurrent or secondary contingency plans for resource scheduling program generated by computer on-line reconstruction under the limitation of total resources by enhancing the efficiency of the disposal of emergency management and disposal effects. On the basis of the description in steps, objectives and considerations of the development in resource scheduling scheme, it constructed the models both in parallel and mutually exclusive scenarios, designed a heuristic algorithm, using the contingency plans for reconstruct on of the sample through an airline.
(3) In order to meet the needs of the occurrence that may arise in emergency, the emergency plan usually has specific disposal goal and the applicable conditions. With the indeterminacy of occurrence and the evolution of emergency, the overall plan or part of the process may no longer apply in the implementation process, so it's significant to close those plans are no longer applicable. In Chapter5, the dissertation research on optimization problems from preplan and processes, these two levels, solved the problem in choosing of the plan or process state in particular moment in time, providing decision support based on real-time information to adjust for emergency contingency plans and the implementation of the process state.
(4) Besides the overall evaluation to improve the completeness, validity and other aspects of the plan content, The improvement of emergency plans needs micro-operational level evaluation of specific processes to eliminate the weak parts of the plan. There are a lot of processes whose main work are information passing or processing in emergency plan procedures, especially in the procedures of resource preparation stage, the quality of the transmission of information between these processes decides the final efficiency of plan execution, the number of different specific types of process output errors reflects the relatively weakness of the process in the whole network. From the perspective of risk analysis to analyze the plans based on the implementation and drilling data, to describe and compare the output error level would be helpful to found and improve the weak parts of the plan. Chpter6presented a risk assessment model based on flow equilibrium of error information, which explored a quantitative description and measurement of risk conduction.
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