碳排放与我国经济发展关系研究
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摘要
随着经济的快速发展,我国碳排放量的迅速增加成为经济发展过程中的一大问题,解决的途径之一在于运用相关的经济理论制定适当的碳减排工具来减少碳排放。因此在认识我国碳排放的现状,借鉴国外发达国家以及发展中国家的经验的基础上,对碳排放与我国经济发展关系的影响因素进行实证分析,探讨适合我国碳减排的政策体系,并运用碳排放的CGE模型模拟碳排放税政策对我国经济发展的影响,具有理论意义和实践意义。
本篇论文为了解决上述问题运用了环境经济学理论分析、计量经济学的实证分析和一般均衡理论的分析方法,借助于计量模型,利用我国1980年以来的经济数据,对影响我国碳排放的经济因素进行分析,对近30年来影响我国碳排放的经济因素进行评价,为当前以及将来我国的碳减排政策提供决策的基础。
研究碳排放与我国经济发展的关系需要解决以下几个问题：首先是明确认识我国的碳排放的历史与现状,其次碳排放与我国经济发展有关的各个经济变量之间的关系以及为我国的碳减排提供可能的政策建议。
为什么要研究碳排放与我国经济发展关系呢?在论文的第一章首先概括了研究这一问题的意义,对碳排放与经济发展关系的文献进行了梳理,首要的问题是经济发展引起的过量碳排放对气候产生的影响,这是研究碳排放与经济发展关系的根本原因,由问题引出对解决问题的措施----一系列的碳减排政策措施的进行评述,然后对当前有关碳排放与经济发展关系研究的文献进行总结,以及研究存在的缺陷和对这一问题解决的可能办法,对碳减排的政策模型进行综述；提出了本论文的研究方法,以及论文的主要创新点、不足以及未来可能的研究方向。
在第二章我国碳排放的历史与现状以及国际比较一章中,解决的主要问题是：我国目前的碳排放究竟处于什么水平?我国和其他国家的碳排放水平的差别在哪里?碳排放随着经济的发展是不是有自身的规律可以遵循?解决上述问题的基础性的工作是从我国近30年来的化石能源消费数据以及国际权威的碳排放计量标准估算出我国的碳排放量,从时间纵向角度对我国的碳排放的历史和现状进行了描述；从我国与其他国家比较的横向角度对我国碳排放所处的阶段进行了描述,说明我国在经济发展的过程中处理碳排放这一问题的必要性和重要性。
我国的碳减排在理论研究和政策实践上需要借鉴其他国家的经验,第三章对经济发达国家和发展中国家的碳减排路径进行分析,对其他国家在碳排放税的征收、碳排放的交易制度以及促进可再生能源发展方面进行深入分析,其目的是为我国的碳减排政策提供有益的借鉴。
影响我国碳排放的与经济发展有关因素主要有哪些?其内在的原因是什么?在论文第四章为了寻找我国经济对碳排放的影响,对碳排放与我国经济发展的关系进行了深入的实证分析。模型利用1980-2009年间我国的人均国内生产总值、城市化水平和工业化水平时间序列数据,计量结果发现存在以人均二氧化碳排放量为被解释变量,以人均国内生产总值、重工业化、城市化和上一期的人均国内生产总值为解释变量的关系,上一期二氧化碳排放对本期的的二氧化碳排放非常显著,因为很多和二氧化碳排放有关的经济变量具有滞后性,说明了在当前采用二氧化碳减排政策措施的必要性；计量结果没有显示我国的二氧化碳排放和经济增长两者之间存在环境库兹涅兹曲线,这说明我国采取经济的手段和各种政策措施进行二氧化碳的减排是必须的；对我国二氧化碳排放影响最大的因素是城市化,随着我国经济的发展,城市化水平在未来的城市化发展过程需要大量的能源投入来进行必要的基础设施建设,而城市化过程是不可逆转的,也是我国经济社会进一步发展的必然结果,这一实证结果也表明我国在现阶段和未来实施碳减排政策需要充分考虑到我国城市化发展这一实际情况,如果过度地实施碳减排政策,势必会影响到我国的城市化发展进程。
碳减排政策工具对宏观经济的影响在第六章得到模拟分析。碳排放税CGE模拟结果显示,征收碳税对国内生产总值的影响是负面的,其原因是碳排放税的征收提高了化石能源的相对价格,在没有其他转移支付的条件下,生产者的成本上升,使得产出下降,这也是一个广泛意义上的结论,即税收会减少生产,这是征收碳税时首要考虑的因素。征收碳税对劳动收入和资本收入的影响分析,碳排放税的征收对资本收入的影响远远大于对劳动收入的影响。其中可能的原因是碳税的征收提高了化石能源的价格,生产者倾向于运用更多的非能源投入来代替能源投入,但是劳动和资本具有不完全的替代性,资本投入受到的影响更大一些。化石能源部门征收碳排放税,使得生产价格上升,对总产出的影响是总产出的下降,总产出下降后,经济中对资本和劳动的需求减少,平均工资率和平均资本回报率的下降说明经济的劳动报酬和资本报酬的下降。
With the rapid development of our economy, the fast increase carbon emission is becoming a major problem in the process of economic development in our country. One of the ways to solve this problem is to apply economic theory to the development of appropriate carbon reduction tools to reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, It has important theoretical and practical significance in understanding the status quo of China's carbon emissions, drawing on the experience of developed countries and developing countries and empirical analysis to explore the influencing factors of the relationship of carbon emissions and economic development policy system suited to carbon emissions and using CGE model simulation of a carbon tax policy impact on economic development policy simulation of China.
On the reasch of the relationship between carbon emissions and China's economic development need to address several major issues:The first is a clear understanding of the history and present situation of China's carbon emissions, Followed by the carbon emissions related to the relationship between various economic variables, as well as an effective economic policy for carbon reduction in China and China's economic development.
In order to solve this problem we use the theory of environmental economics analysis as so as econometric empirical analysis and general equilibrium theory analysis method in this thesis. With the help of econometric models, the use of economic data in China since1980, and economic factors to analyze the impact of carbon emissions in China. We evaluate the economic factors of the impact of carbon emissions in the past30years, current and future carbon reduction policies provide the basis for decision-making of China.
Why study the carbon emissions and the development of China's economic relations? The first chapter of the paper outlines the significance of this problem, has combed the literature on carbon emissions and economic development in the relationship, Then summarize the current carbon emissions and economic development literature, carbon reduction policy model are reviewed either; In this research, as well as the main innovation of the paper, the lack of possible future research directions.
In the second chapter history and present situation as well as international compare, the main problem is our current carbon emissions exactly at what level? Where are the differences in levels of carbon emissions in China and other countries? Carbon emissionshas has its own rules? Fundamental works to address these problems is to estimate fossil data of energy consumption in China for nearly30years as well as the international authority of carbon emissions measurement standards carbon emissions amount of our country, carbon emissions from the history and current situation, conduct the description; Stage of China's carbon emissions from China and other countries lateral angle describes the necessity and importance of China in the process of economic development appropriate to deal with carbon emissions.
China's carbon emission reduction in the theoretical research and policy practice needs to draw on the experience of other countries. In order to provide useful lessons of carbon emission reduction policies, we analysis developed and developing economy carbon reduction path help to understand the characteristics of China's carbon dioxide emissions and analysis how to levy a carbon tax, carbon emissions trading system and to promote renewable energy development.
What are the main factors which determine the relationgship between carbon emissions and economic development in China? What is the inner reason? In order to find how our economy impact on carbon emissions, in the fourth chapter of the thesis we empirical analysis on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in China. The model uses per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of China between1980-2009, the level of urbanization and industrialization level time-series data, the measurement results exist to carbon dioxide emissions per capita as explanatory variables, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), heavy industrialization, urbanization and on a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for the relationship between the explanatory variables, and a carbon dioxide emission current of carbon dioxide emissions is very significant, because many economic variables related to carbon dioxide emissions with a lag, indicating that the carbon dioxide reduction in the current row of the necessity of policy measures; measurement results did not show China's carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth between the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which shows that China has taken the economic means and the various policies and measures to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide must be; The biggest factor which affects carbon dioxide emissions is urbanization, economic development and urbanization requires a lot of energy input into the development process of urbanization in the future to carry out the necessary infrastructure construction, the process of urbanization is irreversible, the inevitable result of China's economic community to further develop this empirical results also show that the implementation of carbon reduction policies take full account of the actual situation of China's urbanization development in China at this stage and in the future, if excessive carbon reduction policies, is bound to affect the development process urbanization of China.
The macroeconomic impact of carbon abatement policy instruments will be Simulated and Analysis in Chapter VI. Simulation results show that the impact of a carbon tax on the gross domestic product (GDP) is negative, because the carbon tax levy to improve the relative price of fossil energy, in the absence of other conditions of transfer payments, producers of rising costs, making The decline in output, which is also a broad sense, the conclusion that the tax will reduce the production, folding is the primary consideration of a carbon tax. The impact of a carbon tax on labor income and capital income analysis, the carbon tax levied on capital income is much larger than the impact of labor income. The likely reason is that carbon tax levy to improve the fossil energy prices, producers tend to use more non-energy inputs instead of the energy inputs, labor and capital has not exactly alternative, the impact of capital investment some. The fossil energy sector, carbon taxes, producer prices increased, the total output impact of the decline in total output, total output fell, the economy reduced demand for capital and labor, the average wage rate and the average return on capital the decline explain the decline in the economy of labor remuneration and capital remuneration.
本篇论文为了解决上述问题运用了环境经济学理论分析、计量经济学的实证分析和一般均衡理论的分析方法,借助于计量模型,利用我国1980年以来的经济数据,对影响我国碳排放的经济因素进行分析,对近30年来影响我国碳排放的经济因素进行评价,为当前以及将来我国的碳减排政策提供决策的基础。
研究碳排放与我国经济发展的关系需要解决以下几个问题：首先是明确认识我国的碳排放的历史与现状,其次碳排放与我国经济发展有关的各个经济变量之间的关系以及为我国的碳减排提供可能的政策建议。
为什么要研究碳排放与我国经济发展关系呢?在论文的第一章首先概括了研究这一问题的意义,对碳排放与经济发展关系的文献进行了梳理,首要的问题是经济发展引起的过量碳排放对气候产生的影响,这是研究碳排放与经济发展关系的根本原因,由问题引出对解决问题的措施----一系列的碳减排政策措施的进行评述,然后对当前有关碳排放与经济发展关系研究的文献进行总结,以及研究存在的缺陷和对这一问题解决的可能办法,对碳减排的政策模型进行综述；提出了本论文的研究方法,以及论文的主要创新点、不足以及未来可能的研究方向。
在第二章我国碳排放的历史与现状以及国际比较一章中,解决的主要问题是：我国目前的碳排放究竟处于什么水平?我国和其他国家的碳排放水平的差别在哪里?碳排放随着经济的发展是不是有自身的规律可以遵循?解决上述问题的基础性的工作是从我国近30年来的化石能源消费数据以及国际权威的碳排放计量标准估算出我国的碳排放量,从时间纵向角度对我国的碳排放的历史和现状进行了描述；从我国与其他国家比较的横向角度对我国碳排放所处的阶段进行了描述,说明我国在经济发展的过程中处理碳排放这一问题的必要性和重要性。
我国的碳减排在理论研究和政策实践上需要借鉴其他国家的经验,第三章对经济发达国家和发展中国家的碳减排路径进行分析,对其他国家在碳排放税的征收、碳排放的交易制度以及促进可再生能源发展方面进行深入分析,其目的是为我国的碳减排政策提供有益的借鉴。
影响我国碳排放的与经济发展有关因素主要有哪些?其内在的原因是什么?在论文第四章为了寻找我国经济对碳排放的影响,对碳排放与我国经济发展的关系进行了深入的实证分析。模型利用1980-2009年间我国的人均国内生产总值、城市化水平和工业化水平时间序列数据,计量结果发现存在以人均二氧化碳排放量为被解释变量,以人均国内生产总值、重工业化、城市化和上一期的人均国内生产总值为解释变量的关系,上一期二氧化碳排放对本期的的二氧化碳排放非常显著,因为很多和二氧化碳排放有关的经济变量具有滞后性,说明了在当前采用二氧化碳减排政策措施的必要性；计量结果没有显示我国的二氧化碳排放和经济增长两者之间存在环境库兹涅兹曲线,这说明我国采取经济的手段和各种政策措施进行二氧化碳的减排是必须的；对我国二氧化碳排放影响最大的因素是城市化,随着我国经济的发展,城市化水平在未来的城市化发展过程需要大量的能源投入来进行必要的基础设施建设,而城市化过程是不可逆转的,也是我国经济社会进一步发展的必然结果,这一实证结果也表明我国在现阶段和未来实施碳减排政策需要充分考虑到我国城市化发展这一实际情况,如果过度地实施碳减排政策,势必会影响到我国的城市化发展进程。
碳减排政策工具对宏观经济的影响在第六章得到模拟分析。碳排放税CGE模拟结果显示,征收碳税对国内生产总值的影响是负面的,其原因是碳排放税的征收提高了化石能源的相对价格,在没有其他转移支付的条件下,生产者的成本上升,使得产出下降,这也是一个广泛意义上的结论,即税收会减少生产,这是征收碳税时首要考虑的因素。征收碳税对劳动收入和资本收入的影响分析,碳排放税的征收对资本收入的影响远远大于对劳动收入的影响。其中可能的原因是碳税的征收提高了化石能源的价格,生产者倾向于运用更多的非能源投入来代替能源投入,但是劳动和资本具有不完全的替代性,资本投入受到的影响更大一些。化石能源部门征收碳排放税,使得生产价格上升,对总产出的影响是总产出的下降,总产出下降后,经济中对资本和劳动的需求减少,平均工资率和平均资本回报率的下降说明经济的劳动报酬和资本报酬的下降。
With the rapid development of our economy, the fast increase carbon emission is becoming a major problem in the process of economic development in our country. One of the ways to solve this problem is to apply economic theory to the development of appropriate carbon reduction tools to reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, It has important theoretical and practical significance in understanding the status quo of China's carbon emissions, drawing on the experience of developed countries and developing countries and empirical analysis to explore the influencing factors of the relationship of carbon emissions and economic development policy system suited to carbon emissions and using CGE model simulation of a carbon tax policy impact on economic development policy simulation of China.
On the reasch of the relationship between carbon emissions and China's economic development need to address several major issues:The first is a clear understanding of the history and present situation of China's carbon emissions, Followed by the carbon emissions related to the relationship between various economic variables, as well as an effective economic policy for carbon reduction in China and China's economic development.
In order to solve this problem we use the theory of environmental economics analysis as so as econometric empirical analysis and general equilibrium theory analysis method in this thesis. With the help of econometric models, the use of economic data in China since1980, and economic factors to analyze the impact of carbon emissions in China. We evaluate the economic factors of the impact of carbon emissions in the past30years, current and future carbon reduction policies provide the basis for decision-making of China.
Why study the carbon emissions and the development of China's economic relations? The first chapter of the paper outlines the significance of this problem, has combed the literature on carbon emissions and economic development in the relationship, Then summarize the current carbon emissions and economic development literature, carbon reduction policy model are reviewed either; In this research, as well as the main innovation of the paper, the lack of possible future research directions.
In the second chapter history and present situation as well as international compare, the main problem is our current carbon emissions exactly at what level? Where are the differences in levels of carbon emissions in China and other countries? Carbon emissionshas has its own rules? Fundamental works to address these problems is to estimate fossil data of energy consumption in China for nearly30years as well as the international authority of carbon emissions measurement standards carbon emissions amount of our country, carbon emissions from the history and current situation, conduct the description; Stage of China's carbon emissions from China and other countries lateral angle describes the necessity and importance of China in the process of economic development appropriate to deal with carbon emissions.
China's carbon emission reduction in the theoretical research and policy practice needs to draw on the experience of other countries. In order to provide useful lessons of carbon emission reduction policies, we analysis developed and developing economy carbon reduction path help to understand the characteristics of China's carbon dioxide emissions and analysis how to levy a carbon tax, carbon emissions trading system and to promote renewable energy development.
What are the main factors which determine the relationgship between carbon emissions and economic development in China? What is the inner reason? In order to find how our economy impact on carbon emissions, in the fourth chapter of the thesis we empirical analysis on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in China. The model uses per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of China between1980-2009, the level of urbanization and industrialization level time-series data, the measurement results exist to carbon dioxide emissions per capita as explanatory variables, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), heavy industrialization, urbanization and on a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for the relationship between the explanatory variables, and a carbon dioxide emission current of carbon dioxide emissions is very significant, because many economic variables related to carbon dioxide emissions with a lag, indicating that the carbon dioxide reduction in the current row of the necessity of policy measures; measurement results did not show China's carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth between the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which shows that China has taken the economic means and the various policies and measures to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide must be; The biggest factor which affects carbon dioxide emissions is urbanization, economic development and urbanization requires a lot of energy input into the development process of urbanization in the future to carry out the necessary infrastructure construction, the process of urbanization is irreversible, the inevitable result of China's economic community to further develop this empirical results also show that the implementation of carbon reduction policies take full account of the actual situation of China's urbanization development in China at this stage and in the future, if excessive carbon reduction policies, is bound to affect the development process urbanization of China.
The macroeconomic impact of carbon abatement policy instruments will be Simulated and Analysis in Chapter VI. Simulation results show that the impact of a carbon tax on the gross domestic product (GDP) is negative, because the carbon tax levy to improve the relative price of fossil energy, in the absence of other conditions of transfer payments, producers of rising costs, making The decline in output, which is also a broad sense, the conclusion that the tax will reduce the production, folding is the primary consideration of a carbon tax. The impact of a carbon tax on labor income and capital income analysis, the carbon tax levied on capital income is much larger than the impact of labor income. The likely reason is that carbon tax levy to improve the fossil energy prices, producers tend to use more non-energy inputs instead of the energy inputs, labor and capital has not exactly alternative, the impact of capital investment some. The fossil energy sector, carbon taxes, producer prices increased, the total output impact of the decline in total output, total output fell, the economy reduced demand for capital and labor, the average wage rate and the average return on capital the decline explain the decline in the economy of labor remuneration and capital remuneration.
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[21]王铮朱永彬.我国各省区碳排放量状况及减排对策研究[J].战略与决策研究,2008.2
[22]数据来源：World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, China 1980-2006. Energy Information Administration International Energy Annual 2009.
[23]储藏污染物：自然界对这种污染物具有部分吸收能力,称之为储藏污染物。当储藏污染物大排放量超出环境的自净能力,污染物的不断积累,对当前和未来的环境产生损害。二氧化碳可以被植物和海洋吸收。工业化过程产生大量的二氧化碳超出了正常的植物的吸收能力,在大气中不断积累,使得气候发生变化,因此产生了环境问题。
[01]IPCC 2006,《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》,[M]国家温室气体清单计划编写.2006p7
[02]IPCC 2006,《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》,[M]国家温室气体清单计划编写.2006.词汇表5
[03]IPCC2006排放清单1.21
[04]碳汇是指碳的削减和储藏,是指从空气中清除二氧化碳的过程、活动、机制,碳汇主要包括森林生物、木材产品、土壤和大气等。《联合国气候变化框架公约》第九次缔约方大会,将造林、再造林等林业活动纳入碳汇项目达成了一致意见。
[05]经济发达国家的化石能源的大规模使用是大约从工业革命开始的,也就是碳排放量开始大规模的累积时期。
[06]朱江玲岳超等.1850-2008中国及世纪主要国家的碳排放—碳排放与社会发展Ⅰ[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2010(7)：497-504
[07]1PgC=10亿TC
[08]来源：IEA;CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2009 Edition) [M]. Paris.2009
[09]来源：CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2009 Edition) [M]. IEA, Paris.
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[02]图3.1.2：G8+5国家的人均国民收入和人均二氧化碳排放量散点图(2005年),资料来源：世界银行WDI数据库。
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[09]表2.3.1及G8+5国家人均二氧化碳排放量及人均国民收入的比较资料来源：世界银行WDI数据库,2005年数据整理
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[12]资料来源：1.he World Resources Institute 2005
[13]资料来源：MCT,Global Abatement Cost Curvev2.0 "Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy for Brazil."
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[08]碳排放交易许可证在企业之间的分配涉及到公平原则,环境管理者基于不同的分配目标选择分配方式。
[09]Karan Capor世界银行可持续发展部,Philippe Ambrosi世界银行气候变化组.2009年碳市场发展状况与趋势分析[M].
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[12]中国温室气体自愿减排交易管理办法将出台[DB/OL].中国证券报·中证网
[13]目前我国使用较多的国际三大自愿减排标准包括VCS、黄金标准以及SocialCarbon,这三大自愿减排标准组织都是国际NGO组织。我国也在逐步建立自己的碳减排标准,例如北京环交所开发的熊猫标准,被称作是中国第一个减排标准。
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[16]同9
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[12]里昂惕夫生产函数又称固定投入比例生产函数,在每一个产量水平上任何一对要素投入量之间的比例都是固定的生产函数。假设条件为生产过程中只使用劳动和资本两种要素。
[13]柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的假设前提为：(1)生产中只有资本和劳动两种投入。(2)资本和劳动可以相互替代,资本-劳动替代弹性是固定为1。(3)资本和劳动均存在边际收益递减。
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[17]在现实经济中,随着收入的增加,消费者在各种不同商品见得消费比例会产生变化,比如著名的恩格尔系数,恩格尔系数描述的是随着收入的增加,家庭购买食物的支出总额占消费总额的比例越低。
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[26]数据来源：2007年投入产出表--0102直接消耗系数表
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[28]在这里碳排放税的价格按照2007年价格,因为投入产出表的基准价格为2007年价格。
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[04]碳汇是指碳的削减和储藏,是指从空气中清除二氧化碳的过程、活动、机制,碳汇主要包括森林生物、木材产品、土壤和大气等。《联合国气候变化框架公约》第九次缔约方大会,将造林、再造林等林业活动纳入碳汇项目达成了一致意见。
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[25]赵永,王劲峰著.经济分析CGE模型与应用[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2008.6
[26]数据来源：2007年投入产出表--0102直接消耗系数表
[27]魏传江等编译GAMS用户指南(通用建模软件技术丛书)[M]北京：中国水利水电出版社2009.11
[28]在这里碳排放税的价格按照2007年价格,因为投入产出表的基准价格为2007年价格。
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