我国金融发展对贫困减缓的影响：理论与实证
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摘要
金融发展和贫困减缓一直是学者和政策制定者关注的问题。改革开放以来,我国的金融发展经历了从单一到多元的发展历程,无论是规模还是效率都有着显著的提高。以经典的M2/GDP计算,我国的金融发展规模由1978年31.8%上升到2011年的185%,远远超过了实际经济增长速度。从金融资产来看,总量稳定增长,由1978年的3257.4亿元增加到2010年的171.4万亿元,并由单一结构转变成由中央银行(中国人民银行)、政策性银行、国有独资商业银行、其他商业银行、非银行金融机构、股票市场和债券市场等构成多元的金融体系,大大的增加了金融服务获得的可能性。
另外,不可忽视的实际情况是我国的贫困与贫困减缓问题。作为世界上最大的发展中国家,贫困仍是我国面临的重要问题之一,因此,我国一直致力于贫困减缓工作,并取得了突出的成就。根据我国官方统计标准,我国绝对贫困人口从1978年的2.5亿下降至2010年的2688万人,贫困发生率从1978年的30.7%下降到2010年的2.8%,年平均约下降0.845%。减贫效果的取得得益于我国的减贫措施,其中金融发展减贫的作用不可忽视,从早期的信贷扶贫到现阶段的小额信贷、保险、微型金融等,在贫困减缓中起到了不可替代的作用,但由于如经济发展水平、初始收入水平、自然条件、地理位置、教育水平、代际相传、个人素质等对贫困不同程度的影响,金融发展对贫困减缓作用的发挥受到限制。因此,正确认识金融发展对贫困减缓的作用,有利于促进我国通过金融改革减少直至消除贫困,并为相关政策的制定提供重要的参考依据,促进金融发展有效发挥减缓贫困的作用。
从理论角度,金融发展与经济增长关系一直是研究的焦点,此外,金融在推动创新、降低交易成本、创造流动性、促进资本积累、改善资源配置、分散风险及提高公司治理水平等方面的作用也颇受关注；在减缓贫困方面,研究主要集中于公共产品提供、收入分配制度、行业垄断、制度因素(财政税收制度)、非法收入、财政与援助等。直到20世纪90年代金融发展减缓贫困作用才受到普遍的关注,相关研究则主要集中于金融发展如何以经济增长方式减缓贫困,少有专门研究金融发展对贫困减缓的作用机制。因此,从金融发展角度,深入分析金融发展对贫困减缓的作用机制,有助于扩展金融发展与贫困减缓关系的研究理论,并丰富相关的研究成果。
基于以上对现实和现有理论的认识与思考,本文以“我国金融发展对贫困减缓的影响：理论与实证”为题,在金融发展理论与贫困减缓理论的基础上,构建金融发展对贫困减缓作用机制的分析框架,运用系统GMM估计、ARDL模型以及OLS方法,结合我国实际情况,对二者的关系进行实证分析,从而为以金融发展实施贫困减缓政策的制定与应用提供理论和实践的支持。
从研究方法上,本文充分运用金融学、经济学、统计学、管理学等学科方法,遵循理论指导实践、实证验证理论的思路,以现有理论为基础,运用规范分析的方法,对相关研究成果进行归纳和演绎,以客观构建金融发展影响贫困减缓的作用机制。并在这一框架下,结合我国实际,采用系统GMM估计、ARDL模型、OLS估计等定量方法,以动态面板数据、时间序列数据和横截面数据对我国金融发展与贫困减缓的问题进行论证,运用系统分析法对相关结论进行总结,提出政策启示和对策建议,从而保证研究的科学性与可信性,力求反映中国实际。
在研究内容上,本文在金融发展理论与贫困减缓理论的基础上,对国内外文献进行了综述,借鉴相关研究成果构建了金融发展影响贫困减缓的作用机制,并分别采用我国省际动态面板数据、全国数据,运用系统GMM估计和ARDL模型进行了实证分析,认为金融发展对贫困减缓具有积极作用。由于金融服务获得对贫困减缓直接作用的特殊性,本文专门针对金融发展直接减缓贫困机制,以时间序列数据和横截面数据为样本,采用OLS方法对二者的长期关系进行了检验。最后得出金融发展减缓贫困的政策启示,并提出发挥金融减缓贫困作用的对策建议。全文分为7章,具体如下：
第1章绪论。本章首先阐述了选题的背景和研究意义,鉴于我国金融发展与贫困减缓显著成就以及金融减贫政策对贫困减缓作用的典型事实,本文提出关于金融发展与贫困减缓的相关命题,主要目的是明确我国金融发展对贫困减缓的影响机制以及二者的关系。为清楚的研究二者的关系,本文对涉及的相关概念进行了界定,提出研究的目标、主要内容、研究思路与研究方法。最后,指出本文可能的创新之处以及存在的不足。
第2章金融发展与贫困减缓的文献综述。本章首先对金融发展理论、贫困与贫困减缓理论进行简要的回顾,在厘清相关理论的基础上,对金融发展与贫困减缓的国内外研究进行综述。通过对相关理论和文献的回顾,可以看出,从金融发展的角度研究贫困减缓问题,有利于丰富相关的理论与实证成果。
第3章金融发展影响贫困减缓的作用机制。本章在相关理论的基础上,构建了金融发展影响贫困减缓的分析框架,逐一对经济增长机制、收入分配机制、金融自由化机制以及金融服务作用机制进行分析,并对每一机制影响贫困减缓的方式进行了探讨,明确金融发展对贫困减缓的影响路径。
第4章我国金融发展与贫困现状分析。本章首先阐述了我国金融发展的历史背景与特点,在对金融发展指标回顾的基础上,说明了本文选取金融发展指标的原因,并对我国金融发展的整体情况进行评价。然后选取常用的贫困指标对我国贫困现状与特点进行了阐述,分析贫困问题产生的原因。最后,对我国现有的金融减缓贫困的政策进行了阐述与评价。
第5章金融发展影响贫困减缓的实证分析。本章根据第3章的分析框架构建模型,并结合相关理论与我国实际情况对变量进行界定,分别采用GMM估计、ARDL模型和OLS法进行实证分析。首先,采用系统GMM估计方法,以我国省际动态面板数据为样本,检验金融发展对贫困减缓作用,从而明确金融发展影响贫困减缓的机制。其次,借助较新的ARDL模型对金融发展与贫困减缓的协整关系进行检验,并对二者的因果关系进行分析。鉴于金融服务发展对贫困减缓的直接作用,本章最后采用OLS法分别以时间序列数据和横截面数据对金融发展影响贫困的直接作用机制进行检验,从而验证金融服务获得对贫困减缓的直接效应。
第6章金融发展减缓贫困的政策启示与对策建议。根据前述分析,本章提出了金融发展减缓贫困的政策启示与对策建议。政策启示包括：正确看待金融发展减缓贫困的作用；有效识别金融发展减缓贫困的目标群体；政府适当的引导与支持；充分发挥宏观机制的作用,扩大金融服务的覆盖面。对策建议包括：规范信贷投向,促进贫困地区经济发展；健全小微企业融资渠道,扩展贫困群体收入来源；创新金融产品,改善对贫困群体的金融服务水平；构建普惠的金融服务体系,完善贫困群体的信用体系；加强金融监管,降低对贫困群体的消极影响；促进金融发展环境建设,避免对贫困群体的服务歧视。
第7章主要结论与未来研究展望。本章主要是对全文理论分析与实证检验结果的总结,并对未来研究方向进行展望。
本文得到以下主要结论：
首先,金融发展具有资源配置、公司治理、风险管理、金融服务(储蓄、贷款、保险、培训等)等功能,它可以通过经济增长、收入分配、金融波动风险以及金融服务获得作用于贫困减缓。
第二,我国的金融发展有利于贫困减缓,但会受到金融波动的影响。系统GMM估计结果表明,金融发展减缓贫困除直接作用外,还有经济增长、收入分配的积极作用,以及金融波动的消极影响。由于金融服务成本承担能力的制约,金融发展初期可能对穷人不利,但越过这一拐点后,金融发展有利于穷人收入水平的提高,即金融发展减缓贫困存在先恶化后改善效应。ARDL模型估计结果表明,金融发展有利于贫困减缓关系是长期稳定的,并存在金融发展与贫困减缓的长期双向因果关系,而短期因果关系与金融发展指标选取有关。OLS的验证结果表明,金融服务有利于贫困减缓,这一效应具有长期性。
第三,应正确看待金融发展减缓贫困的作用,规范引导金融信贷投向,加大金融产品创新,健全融资渠道,构建普惠的金融服务体系,扩大金融服务群体,同时规避金融风险,促进金融发展环境建设,实现金融的和谐发展,从而有效发挥金融发展减缓贫困的作用。
论文主要的创新之处在于：首先,以国内外研究成果为基础,构建了金融发展影响贫困减缓的经济增长、收入分配、金融风险、金融服务获得作用机制的分析框架,丰富了金融发展的相关研究成果。
第二,采用系统GMM估计实证分析了金融发展影响贫困减缓的经济增长、收入分配、金融风险以及金融服务获得的作用机制,并验证了金融发展对贫困减缓的G-J效应。这一方法克服了固定效应分析等方法的不足。在协整关系分析中,采用了ARDL模型,避免了对数据平稳性、协整关系以及样本大小的要求。
第三,构建了以宏观数据为基础的分析模型,并对金融服务发展对贫困减缓的作用机制进行检验,从而弥补了相关研究的空白。
The issues of financial development and poverty alleviation are always concerned by scholars and policy-makers. Since the reform and opening up, financial development in China has experienced from single to diversity process. The financial development scale and efficiency have been improved significantly. If calculated with classic index of M2/GDP, financial development scale of China has been increased from31.8%in1978to185%in2011, which has been more than the actual economic growth rate. From financial assets, the total volume has grown from325.74billion yuan in1978to171.4trillion yuan in2010steadily. The financial structure has also transformed from the single one to the diversified financial system, which is composed of the central bank (People's Bank of China), policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, other commercial banks, non-bank financial institutions, two stock markets and one bond market. All those improved the impossibility of financial services access greatly.
On the other hand, the actual problem that is not ignored in China is the poverty and poverty alleviation. As one of most developing nation, the poverty is still one of most important problems in China, so that China has devoted the efforts in poverty alleviation and obtained the great achievements. According to Chinese official statistical standards, the absolute poor has decreased from250million in1978to26.88million in2010, the poverty incidence has also fallen from30.7%in1978to2.8%in2010. It is about0.845%declining rate per year. Those effects are benefited from our poverty alleviation policies, in which financial development plays a very important role including the earlier help-poverty credits and small credit, insurance, microfinance and etc in the present stage. However, there are a lot of factors such as economic development, initial income, natural conditions, geographical position, education, intergenerational transmission and personal quality etc resulted in different degree poverty, so the effect of financial development on poor is limited. Therefore, a correct understanding of financial development effect on poverty alleviation is beneficial for China to reduce and eliminate poverty with financial reform, and it also give important references for related policies making, then improves the effect on poverty alleviation.
With the aspect of theory, it is focused on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. In addition, it is also concerned on the role of financial development on innovation, reducing transaction costs, creating liquidity, promoting capital accumulation, improving resources allocation, diversifying risk and improving corporate governance. In the poverty fields, the researches mainly focus on providing public products, income distribution system, industry monopoly, institutional factors (financial tax system), illegal income, finance and aid etc. It is1990s that the effect of financial development on poverty alleviation was begun, which is mainly on how financial development reduces poverty by economic growth. There are few studies on other mechanism of financial development on poverty alleviation. Therefore, it is good for expanding research theory and enriching relevant research results of financial development and poverty alleviation when analyzing deeply the mechanism of poverty alleviation with aspect of financial development.
Based on understanding and thinking about reality and theory above, the thesis chooses the topic of "The Effect of Financial Development on Poverty Alleviation:Theory and Empirical Test" to built up mechanism analysis framework of financial development on poverty alleviation with related theory, and combine with the actual situation in our country to utilize the method of system GMM, ARDL model and OLS to test empirically their relationship, then the conclusion can give reference for policy formulation and application of reducing poverty with financial development.
With respect of research methods, the thesis makes full use of multidisciplinary approach of finance, economics, statistics and management etc, follows the thoughts that theory instructs practice and positive analysis verifies the theory, and utilizes normative method to induct and deduct the related research based on the existing theory, so as to establish objectively analysis mechanism of financial development influencing on poverty alleviation. And with that framework, the empirical analysis on financial development and poverty alleviation in China are done with actual conditions of our country using the quantitative method of system GMM, ARDL model, OLS estimation with dynamic panel data, time series data and cross-section data. The conclusion is given with method of systematic analysis, and then policy implications and countermeasures are put forward. So that the research is proved to be science and credibility, and strive to reflect the reality of China.
In the main contents, the thesis gives a literatures overview and establishes mechanism of financial development affecting poverty alleviation with reference of relative researches based on the theory of financial development and poverty alleviation. And then empirical tests are done with inter-provincial dynamic panel data and national data by estimation of system GMM and ARDL, the conclusion is that the financial development has played an active role in poverty alleviation. On the other hand, considering the particular effect of financial services access on the poor, the empirical test of financial services on the poor is especially done by OLS approach with combination of national time series data and cross section data. At last, financial development policy implications are given for poverty alleviation, and countermeasures and suggestions of financial development reducing the poverty are put forward. There are seven chapters followed:
Chapter1:Introduction. This chapter expounds the background and the research significance. In view of remarkable achievements of financial development and poverty alleviation and typical facts of financial development reducing poverty policy, the topic of financial development and poverty alleviation are put forward to make clear of mechanism of financial development affecting poverty alleviation and their relationships. In order to analyze clearly, the relevant terms are explained, and then study object, main content, research thought and method are given. Finally, the innovation and possible shortage are pointed out.
Chapter2:Literature Overview of Financial Development and Poverty Alleviation. It gives firstly a brief theories review of financial development, poverty and poverty alleviation. And national and abroad researches are overviewed based on clear related theories. With the overview, it is beneficial to enrich relevant theory and empirical results with researches on financial development and poverty alleviation
Chapter3:The Mechanism of Financial Development Affecting Poverty Alleviation. In this Chapter it builds up the theory analysis framework, and then analyzes the mechanism of economic growth, income distribution and financial liberalization respectively on the basis of related theory. And further it explores the explicit influence path of every mechanism affecting poverty alleviation.
Chapter4:The Situation of Financial Development and Poverty Alleviation and Comments. It uses related indicators to evaluate financial development in China when after stating financial development history and characters. Based on overview the financial development indicators, the reasons for choosing financial development indicators are explained. And then it utilizes poverty indicators to appraise the current poverty situation and characteristics in China and the causes of poverty are explained followed. At last financial help poverty policies are expounded and evaluated.
Chapter5:Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Financial Development and Poverty Alleviation. According to analysis framework in Chapter3, it establishes empirical test model and defines the variables with related theory and reality in China to analyze the relationship between financial development and poverty alleviation using the estimation method of GMM, ARDL and OLS. Firstly, it uses system GMM estimation method to test their relationship with the inter-provincial dynamic panel sample data in order to verify the effect of financial development affecting poverty alleviation. Secondly, it tests further their long-term relationship with help of a new ARDL model, and their causal relations are also analyzes. Because the financial service development will affect poverty alleviation directly, it is used OLS to test the relationship between them with time series data and cross-section data in order to verify the direct effect of financial services on poverty alleviation.
Chapter6:Policy Implications and Suggestions of Financial Development Helping Poverty. According to the above, it puts forward policy implications and suggestions. Policy implications are followed:correct view on the role of financial development on poverty alleviation; Effective identification the poor target groups for financial development reducing the poverty; the proper government guidance and support; developing macro mechanism to the full to expand the financial services coverage. Suggestions include:regulating the credit to improve economy development of depressed area, broadening the financing channels of small and micro enterprises to enlarge the poor income, innovating financial products to better financial services to the poor, constructing general beneficial financial service system to perfect the poor credit system, strengthening financial supervision to reduce the negative influence of financial risks to the poor, promoting financial environment construction to avoid financial service discrimination to the poor.
Chapter7:Main Conclusion and Future Research Direction. This chapter mainly summarizes the theory and empirical studies. And the future research direction was given.
The main conclusions are following:
Firstly, the functions of financial development are resources allocation, corporate governance, risk management, financial services (savings, loans, insurance, training, and etc.), and others, which can affect poverty alleviation by economic growth, income distribution, financial risk and financial services access.
Secondly, financial development in China is good to poverty alleviation. However, finical instability will neutralize this effect. System GMM estimation results shows that financial development help the poor. At the same time, the mechanism of financial development affecting the poor is tested, in which there are both positive effect of economic growth and income distribution and negative influence of financial volatility including the direct effect. Because of the limit financial services cost boring ability, financial development in initial period may be not good to the poor, however, when over the inflection point, financial development is beneficial for improving the poor income, that is, financial development will improved poverty alleviation after deterioration first. ARDL estimation results show that there is long run and stable relationship that financial development is good to help the poor, and there is bidirectional causal relationship between financial development and poverty alleviation in the long run, but in the short run it depends on the choice of financial development indicator. OLS method results show that financial services access is benefit for the poor, which is the long run relationship.
Thirdly, there should be a correct attitude on the effect of financial development on poverty alleviation, and regulate and guide financial credit, improve financial product innovation, broaden financing sources, establish general benefit financial service system, expand financial services group, avoid financial risks, promote financial environment and realize harmonious financial development so as to develop effectively the effect of financial development on poverty alleviation to the full.
The main innovations of the thesis are:firstly, it establishes analysis framework of economic growth, income distribution, financial risk and financial services access mechanism of financial development affecting the poverty alleviation, which enriches the relevant research achievements of financial development.
Secondly, the empirical tests are done on economic growth, income distribution, financial risk and financial services access mechanism of financial development affecting the poverty alleviation with system GMM estimation, and it also verifies the G-J effect between financial development and poverty alleviation. This method overcomes the disadvantages of fixed effect analysis. And in the co-integration test, ARDL model is used to avoid the traditional requirements of data smoothness, co-integration relationship and sample size.
Thirdly, analysis model is built up on the basis of macro data to test the direct effect of financial services development to the poor, which makes up for the related research blank.
另外,不可忽视的实际情况是我国的贫困与贫困减缓问题。作为世界上最大的发展中国家,贫困仍是我国面临的重要问题之一,因此,我国一直致力于贫困减缓工作,并取得了突出的成就。根据我国官方统计标准,我国绝对贫困人口从1978年的2.5亿下降至2010年的2688万人,贫困发生率从1978年的30.7%下降到2010年的2.8%,年平均约下降0.845%。减贫效果的取得得益于我国的减贫措施,其中金融发展减贫的作用不可忽视,从早期的信贷扶贫到现阶段的小额信贷、保险、微型金融等,在贫困减缓中起到了不可替代的作用,但由于如经济发展水平、初始收入水平、自然条件、地理位置、教育水平、代际相传、个人素质等对贫困不同程度的影响,金融发展对贫困减缓作用的发挥受到限制。因此,正确认识金融发展对贫困减缓的作用,有利于促进我国通过金融改革减少直至消除贫困,并为相关政策的制定提供重要的参考依据,促进金融发展有效发挥减缓贫困的作用。
从理论角度,金融发展与经济增长关系一直是研究的焦点,此外,金融在推动创新、降低交易成本、创造流动性、促进资本积累、改善资源配置、分散风险及提高公司治理水平等方面的作用也颇受关注；在减缓贫困方面,研究主要集中于公共产品提供、收入分配制度、行业垄断、制度因素(财政税收制度)、非法收入、财政与援助等。直到20世纪90年代金融发展减缓贫困作用才受到普遍的关注,相关研究则主要集中于金融发展如何以经济增长方式减缓贫困,少有专门研究金融发展对贫困减缓的作用机制。因此,从金融发展角度,深入分析金融发展对贫困减缓的作用机制,有助于扩展金融发展与贫困减缓关系的研究理论,并丰富相关的研究成果。
基于以上对现实和现有理论的认识与思考,本文以“我国金融发展对贫困减缓的影响：理论与实证”为题,在金融发展理论与贫困减缓理论的基础上,构建金融发展对贫困减缓作用机制的分析框架,运用系统GMM估计、ARDL模型以及OLS方法,结合我国实际情况,对二者的关系进行实证分析,从而为以金融发展实施贫困减缓政策的制定与应用提供理论和实践的支持。
从研究方法上,本文充分运用金融学、经济学、统计学、管理学等学科方法,遵循理论指导实践、实证验证理论的思路,以现有理论为基础,运用规范分析的方法,对相关研究成果进行归纳和演绎,以客观构建金融发展影响贫困减缓的作用机制。并在这一框架下,结合我国实际,采用系统GMM估计、ARDL模型、OLS估计等定量方法,以动态面板数据、时间序列数据和横截面数据对我国金融发展与贫困减缓的问题进行论证,运用系统分析法对相关结论进行总结,提出政策启示和对策建议,从而保证研究的科学性与可信性,力求反映中国实际。
在研究内容上,本文在金融发展理论与贫困减缓理论的基础上,对国内外文献进行了综述,借鉴相关研究成果构建了金融发展影响贫困减缓的作用机制,并分别采用我国省际动态面板数据、全国数据,运用系统GMM估计和ARDL模型进行了实证分析,认为金融发展对贫困减缓具有积极作用。由于金融服务获得对贫困减缓直接作用的特殊性,本文专门针对金融发展直接减缓贫困机制,以时间序列数据和横截面数据为样本,采用OLS方法对二者的长期关系进行了检验。最后得出金融发展减缓贫困的政策启示,并提出发挥金融减缓贫困作用的对策建议。全文分为7章,具体如下：
第1章绪论。本章首先阐述了选题的背景和研究意义,鉴于我国金融发展与贫困减缓显著成就以及金融减贫政策对贫困减缓作用的典型事实,本文提出关于金融发展与贫困减缓的相关命题,主要目的是明确我国金融发展对贫困减缓的影响机制以及二者的关系。为清楚的研究二者的关系,本文对涉及的相关概念进行了界定,提出研究的目标、主要内容、研究思路与研究方法。最后,指出本文可能的创新之处以及存在的不足。
第2章金融发展与贫困减缓的文献综述。本章首先对金融发展理论、贫困与贫困减缓理论进行简要的回顾,在厘清相关理论的基础上,对金融发展与贫困减缓的国内外研究进行综述。通过对相关理论和文献的回顾,可以看出,从金融发展的角度研究贫困减缓问题,有利于丰富相关的理论与实证成果。
第3章金融发展影响贫困减缓的作用机制。本章在相关理论的基础上,构建了金融发展影响贫困减缓的分析框架,逐一对经济增长机制、收入分配机制、金融自由化机制以及金融服务作用机制进行分析,并对每一机制影响贫困减缓的方式进行了探讨,明确金融发展对贫困减缓的影响路径。
第4章我国金融发展与贫困现状分析。本章首先阐述了我国金融发展的历史背景与特点,在对金融发展指标回顾的基础上,说明了本文选取金融发展指标的原因,并对我国金融发展的整体情况进行评价。然后选取常用的贫困指标对我国贫困现状与特点进行了阐述,分析贫困问题产生的原因。最后,对我国现有的金融减缓贫困的政策进行了阐述与评价。
第5章金融发展影响贫困减缓的实证分析。本章根据第3章的分析框架构建模型,并结合相关理论与我国实际情况对变量进行界定,分别采用GMM估计、ARDL模型和OLS法进行实证分析。首先,采用系统GMM估计方法,以我国省际动态面板数据为样本,检验金融发展对贫困减缓作用,从而明确金融发展影响贫困减缓的机制。其次,借助较新的ARDL模型对金融发展与贫困减缓的协整关系进行检验,并对二者的因果关系进行分析。鉴于金融服务发展对贫困减缓的直接作用,本章最后采用OLS法分别以时间序列数据和横截面数据对金融发展影响贫困的直接作用机制进行检验,从而验证金融服务获得对贫困减缓的直接效应。
第6章金融发展减缓贫困的政策启示与对策建议。根据前述分析,本章提出了金融发展减缓贫困的政策启示与对策建议。政策启示包括：正确看待金融发展减缓贫困的作用；有效识别金融发展减缓贫困的目标群体；政府适当的引导与支持；充分发挥宏观机制的作用,扩大金融服务的覆盖面。对策建议包括：规范信贷投向,促进贫困地区经济发展；健全小微企业融资渠道,扩展贫困群体收入来源；创新金融产品,改善对贫困群体的金融服务水平；构建普惠的金融服务体系,完善贫困群体的信用体系；加强金融监管,降低对贫困群体的消极影响；促进金融发展环境建设,避免对贫困群体的服务歧视。
第7章主要结论与未来研究展望。本章主要是对全文理论分析与实证检验结果的总结,并对未来研究方向进行展望。
本文得到以下主要结论：
首先,金融发展具有资源配置、公司治理、风险管理、金融服务(储蓄、贷款、保险、培训等)等功能,它可以通过经济增长、收入分配、金融波动风险以及金融服务获得作用于贫困减缓。
第二,我国的金融发展有利于贫困减缓,但会受到金融波动的影响。系统GMM估计结果表明,金融发展减缓贫困除直接作用外,还有经济增长、收入分配的积极作用,以及金融波动的消极影响。由于金融服务成本承担能力的制约,金融发展初期可能对穷人不利,但越过这一拐点后,金融发展有利于穷人收入水平的提高,即金融发展减缓贫困存在先恶化后改善效应。ARDL模型估计结果表明,金融发展有利于贫困减缓关系是长期稳定的,并存在金融发展与贫困减缓的长期双向因果关系,而短期因果关系与金融发展指标选取有关。OLS的验证结果表明,金融服务有利于贫困减缓,这一效应具有长期性。
第三,应正确看待金融发展减缓贫困的作用,规范引导金融信贷投向,加大金融产品创新,健全融资渠道,构建普惠的金融服务体系,扩大金融服务群体,同时规避金融风险,促进金融发展环境建设,实现金融的和谐发展,从而有效发挥金融发展减缓贫困的作用。
论文主要的创新之处在于：首先,以国内外研究成果为基础,构建了金融发展影响贫困减缓的经济增长、收入分配、金融风险、金融服务获得作用机制的分析框架,丰富了金融发展的相关研究成果。
第二,采用系统GMM估计实证分析了金融发展影响贫困减缓的经济增长、收入分配、金融风险以及金融服务获得的作用机制,并验证了金融发展对贫困减缓的G-J效应。这一方法克服了固定效应分析等方法的不足。在协整关系分析中,采用了ARDL模型,避免了对数据平稳性、协整关系以及样本大小的要求。
第三,构建了以宏观数据为基础的分析模型,并对金融服务发展对贫困减缓的作用机制进行检验,从而弥补了相关研究的空白。
The issues of financial development and poverty alleviation are always concerned by scholars and policy-makers. Since the reform and opening up, financial development in China has experienced from single to diversity process. The financial development scale and efficiency have been improved significantly. If calculated with classic index of M2/GDP, financial development scale of China has been increased from31.8%in1978to185%in2011, which has been more than the actual economic growth rate. From financial assets, the total volume has grown from325.74billion yuan in1978to171.4trillion yuan in2010steadily. The financial structure has also transformed from the single one to the diversified financial system, which is composed of the central bank (People's Bank of China), policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, other commercial banks, non-bank financial institutions, two stock markets and one bond market. All those improved the impossibility of financial services access greatly.
On the other hand, the actual problem that is not ignored in China is the poverty and poverty alleviation. As one of most developing nation, the poverty is still one of most important problems in China, so that China has devoted the efforts in poverty alleviation and obtained the great achievements. According to Chinese official statistical standards, the absolute poor has decreased from250million in1978to26.88million in2010, the poverty incidence has also fallen from30.7%in1978to2.8%in2010. It is about0.845%declining rate per year. Those effects are benefited from our poverty alleviation policies, in which financial development plays a very important role including the earlier help-poverty credits and small credit, insurance, microfinance and etc in the present stage. However, there are a lot of factors such as economic development, initial income, natural conditions, geographical position, education, intergenerational transmission and personal quality etc resulted in different degree poverty, so the effect of financial development on poor is limited. Therefore, a correct understanding of financial development effect on poverty alleviation is beneficial for China to reduce and eliminate poverty with financial reform, and it also give important references for related policies making, then improves the effect on poverty alleviation.
With the aspect of theory, it is focused on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. In addition, it is also concerned on the role of financial development on innovation, reducing transaction costs, creating liquidity, promoting capital accumulation, improving resources allocation, diversifying risk and improving corporate governance. In the poverty fields, the researches mainly focus on providing public products, income distribution system, industry monopoly, institutional factors (financial tax system), illegal income, finance and aid etc. It is1990s that the effect of financial development on poverty alleviation was begun, which is mainly on how financial development reduces poverty by economic growth. There are few studies on other mechanism of financial development on poverty alleviation. Therefore, it is good for expanding research theory and enriching relevant research results of financial development and poverty alleviation when analyzing deeply the mechanism of poverty alleviation with aspect of financial development.
Based on understanding and thinking about reality and theory above, the thesis chooses the topic of "The Effect of Financial Development on Poverty Alleviation:Theory and Empirical Test" to built up mechanism analysis framework of financial development on poverty alleviation with related theory, and combine with the actual situation in our country to utilize the method of system GMM, ARDL model and OLS to test empirically their relationship, then the conclusion can give reference for policy formulation and application of reducing poverty with financial development.
With respect of research methods, the thesis makes full use of multidisciplinary approach of finance, economics, statistics and management etc, follows the thoughts that theory instructs practice and positive analysis verifies the theory, and utilizes normative method to induct and deduct the related research based on the existing theory, so as to establish objectively analysis mechanism of financial development influencing on poverty alleviation. And with that framework, the empirical analysis on financial development and poverty alleviation in China are done with actual conditions of our country using the quantitative method of system GMM, ARDL model, OLS estimation with dynamic panel data, time series data and cross-section data. The conclusion is given with method of systematic analysis, and then policy implications and countermeasures are put forward. So that the research is proved to be science and credibility, and strive to reflect the reality of China.
In the main contents, the thesis gives a literatures overview and establishes mechanism of financial development affecting poverty alleviation with reference of relative researches based on the theory of financial development and poverty alleviation. And then empirical tests are done with inter-provincial dynamic panel data and national data by estimation of system GMM and ARDL, the conclusion is that the financial development has played an active role in poverty alleviation. On the other hand, considering the particular effect of financial services access on the poor, the empirical test of financial services on the poor is especially done by OLS approach with combination of national time series data and cross section data. At last, financial development policy implications are given for poverty alleviation, and countermeasures and suggestions of financial development reducing the poverty are put forward. There are seven chapters followed:
Chapter1:Introduction. This chapter expounds the background and the research significance. In view of remarkable achievements of financial development and poverty alleviation and typical facts of financial development reducing poverty policy, the topic of financial development and poverty alleviation are put forward to make clear of mechanism of financial development affecting poverty alleviation and their relationships. In order to analyze clearly, the relevant terms are explained, and then study object, main content, research thought and method are given. Finally, the innovation and possible shortage are pointed out.
Chapter2:Literature Overview of Financial Development and Poverty Alleviation. It gives firstly a brief theories review of financial development, poverty and poverty alleviation. And national and abroad researches are overviewed based on clear related theories. With the overview, it is beneficial to enrich relevant theory and empirical results with researches on financial development and poverty alleviation
Chapter3:The Mechanism of Financial Development Affecting Poverty Alleviation. In this Chapter it builds up the theory analysis framework, and then analyzes the mechanism of economic growth, income distribution and financial liberalization respectively on the basis of related theory. And further it explores the explicit influence path of every mechanism affecting poverty alleviation.
Chapter4:The Situation of Financial Development and Poverty Alleviation and Comments. It uses related indicators to evaluate financial development in China when after stating financial development history and characters. Based on overview the financial development indicators, the reasons for choosing financial development indicators are explained. And then it utilizes poverty indicators to appraise the current poverty situation and characteristics in China and the causes of poverty are explained followed. At last financial help poverty policies are expounded and evaluated.
Chapter5:Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Financial Development and Poverty Alleviation. According to analysis framework in Chapter3, it establishes empirical test model and defines the variables with related theory and reality in China to analyze the relationship between financial development and poverty alleviation using the estimation method of GMM, ARDL and OLS. Firstly, it uses system GMM estimation method to test their relationship with the inter-provincial dynamic panel sample data in order to verify the effect of financial development affecting poverty alleviation. Secondly, it tests further their long-term relationship with help of a new ARDL model, and their causal relations are also analyzes. Because the financial service development will affect poverty alleviation directly, it is used OLS to test the relationship between them with time series data and cross-section data in order to verify the direct effect of financial services on poverty alleviation.
Chapter6:Policy Implications and Suggestions of Financial Development Helping Poverty. According to the above, it puts forward policy implications and suggestions. Policy implications are followed:correct view on the role of financial development on poverty alleviation; Effective identification the poor target groups for financial development reducing the poverty; the proper government guidance and support; developing macro mechanism to the full to expand the financial services coverage. Suggestions include:regulating the credit to improve economy development of depressed area, broadening the financing channels of small and micro enterprises to enlarge the poor income, innovating financial products to better financial services to the poor, constructing general beneficial financial service system to perfect the poor credit system, strengthening financial supervision to reduce the negative influence of financial risks to the poor, promoting financial environment construction to avoid financial service discrimination to the poor.
Chapter7:Main Conclusion and Future Research Direction. This chapter mainly summarizes the theory and empirical studies. And the future research direction was given.
The main conclusions are following:
Firstly, the functions of financial development are resources allocation, corporate governance, risk management, financial services (savings, loans, insurance, training, and etc.), and others, which can affect poverty alleviation by economic growth, income distribution, financial risk and financial services access.
Secondly, financial development in China is good to poverty alleviation. However, finical instability will neutralize this effect. System GMM estimation results shows that financial development help the poor. At the same time, the mechanism of financial development affecting the poor is tested, in which there are both positive effect of economic growth and income distribution and negative influence of financial volatility including the direct effect. Because of the limit financial services cost boring ability, financial development in initial period may be not good to the poor, however, when over the inflection point, financial development is beneficial for improving the poor income, that is, financial development will improved poverty alleviation after deterioration first. ARDL estimation results show that there is long run and stable relationship that financial development is good to help the poor, and there is bidirectional causal relationship between financial development and poverty alleviation in the long run, but in the short run it depends on the choice of financial development indicator. OLS method results show that financial services access is benefit for the poor, which is the long run relationship.
Thirdly, there should be a correct attitude on the effect of financial development on poverty alleviation, and regulate and guide financial credit, improve financial product innovation, broaden financing sources, establish general benefit financial service system, expand financial services group, avoid financial risks, promote financial environment and realize harmonious financial development so as to develop effectively the effect of financial development on poverty alleviation to the full.
The main innovations of the thesis are:firstly, it establishes analysis framework of economic growth, income distribution, financial risk and financial services access mechanism of financial development affecting the poverty alleviation, which enriches the relevant research achievements of financial development.
Secondly, the empirical tests are done on economic growth, income distribution, financial risk and financial services access mechanism of financial development affecting the poverty alleviation with system GMM estimation, and it also verifies the G-J effect between financial development and poverty alleviation. This method overcomes the disadvantages of fixed effect analysis. And in the co-integration test, ARDL model is used to avoid the traditional requirements of data smoothness, co-integration relationship and sample size.
Thirdly, analysis model is built up on the basis of macro data to test the direct effect of financial services development to the poor, which makes up for the related research blank.
引文
①按照联合国有关组织规定,基尼系数低于0.2,收入绝对平均；0.2-0.3,收入比较平均；0.3-0.4,收入相对合理；0.4-0.5,收入差距较大；0.5以上,收入差距悬殊
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①Alcock P. (1993)同时认为相对贫困是一种较为主观的标准,它是建立在将穷人与其它不贫困人生活水平的比较基础上的,通常要包括对社会总体平均水平的测度。
②(英)安德鲁·韦伯斯特.发展社会学[M].北京：华夏出版社,1987.2.
③参见《中国城镇居民贫困问题研究》课题组和《中国农村贫困标准》课题组的研究报告(1990年).
①谈儒勇.金融发展理论与中国金融发展[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2000.15.
②“金融抑制”和“金融深化”理论被认为是发展经济学和货币金融理论的重大突破,标志着金融发展理论的正式形成,许多发展中国家货币金融政策的制定及货币金融改革的实践都深受这两个理论的影响。
①本部分主要参考了郑明海博士的相关总结。具体参见郑明海.开放经济下中国金融发展的生产率效应研究[D].浙江大学博士学位论文,2008,9,14-19.
②Stulz & Williamson之所以选择宗教和语言作为文化变量是基于Weber(1930)的研究。Weber(1930)认为宗教是资本主义增长的主要决定因素,而相同的语言便于信仰的交流和传播。因此,这两个变量不依赖目前的金融发展水平,从而可以避免陷入因果循环论证。
①一个国家的模型可以保证在研究的过程中制度差异保持不变。选择意大利作为样本的主要原因在于其司法、行政、监管和税收的统一以及南北社会资本水平的显著不同。
②马尔萨斯.人口论[M].郭大力(译).北京：北京大学出版社,2008,7.
①王朝明.马克思主义贫困理论的创新与发展[J].当代经济研究,2008,(2)：1-7.
②马克思恩格斯全集(第23卷)[M].北京：人民出版社,1973.692-708.
①Kakwani, Prakash & Son (2000), Ravallion (2001,2004),也认为初始收入不平等对贫困收入弹性有着重要的影响。
②由于穷人需要更多的时间才能从公共援助的政策或战略中获益,因此,短期的公共援助需要采取措施保护社会弱势群体。
③(美)戴维.罗默著,苏剑,罗涛译.高级宏观经济学[M].北京：商务印书馆,1999,9-36.
④孙力军.中国金融发展与经济增长关系的理论和实证分析[D].复旦大学,2007.10.
①参考了张立军博士的相关总结,参见张立军.金融发展影响城乡收入差距的实证研究[D].复旦大学,2007.
①陈志刚,王皖君.金融自由化对贫困影响研究动态[J].经济学动态,2008,8,99.
②这一减贫的积极作用被McKinnon (1973)称为导管效应。
①Eswar, P., Rogoff, K., Wei S. J., et al,2003, "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries:Some Empirical Evidence", IMF Board Document, Washington DC:International Monetary Fund. http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/docs/2003/031703.pdf
②金融自由化的正效应主要反应在经济增长及其所带了的方面,这里着重阐述负效应,即金融不稳定以及金融危机这一方面的影响。
①吴忠,叶辅靖,黄承伟等.金融危机与减贫：中国经济刺激政策及减贫效果分析,北京：知识产权出版社,2010.4,23.
①这一观点来自陈银娥,师文明.微型金融对贫困减少的影响研究述评[J].经济学动态,2011,(4)：130-135.
①陈银娥,师文明.微型金融对贫困减少的影响研究述评[J].经济学动态,2011,(4)：130-135.
①Foro & Ray(1997)认为,这一作用依赖于非正规信贷体系的市场结构。参见Floro, M., S., and Ray, D.,1997, "Vertical Links between Formal and Informal Financial Institutions", Review of Development Economics, Vol. 1,No.1, pp34-56.
①我国一种十分古老的民间信用互助形式,普通百姓如遇结婚、生病、盖房等等,急需用款时,互相帮助且互利互惠。据考证,标会在我国起源于唐宋年间,现今广泛流行于福建、广东、浙江、台湾乃至海外华人社区。
②陈银娥,师文明.微型金融对贫困减少的影响研究述评[J].经济学动态,2011,(4)：130-135.
①“四行”即中央银行、中国银行、交通银行、中国农民银行；“二局”即中央信托局、邮政储金汇业局,“一库”即中央合作金库。当时国民党政府重要的金融垄断工具。
②戴相龙,黄达.中华金融辞库[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1998.1535-1536.
③如在瑞金成立的中华苏维埃共和国国家银行,陕甘宁边区银行和华北银行等,这些银行为人民战争的胜利和新中国的成立作出了巨大贡献。
①戴相龙.商业银行经营管理[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1998.1.
①王元主.中国金融展望[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1994.
①参考易纲(1996)、易纲,宋旺(2008)的研究,本文的金融资产以现金、存款余额、贷款余额、债券余额、股票市值以及保费收入进行计算。按照国际惯例,存款和贷款都看成为金融资产(易纲,宋旺,2008)。
①参见陈刚,李树.金融发展与增长源泉：要素积累、技术进步与效率改善[J].南方经济,2009,(5),24-35.
①杨海燕.金融中介发展论[D].四川大学,2006.109.
①我国贫困人口的统计和贫困发生率的计算都是基于绝对贫困的概念,即“尚未解决温饱问题”的人口。
②实际上我国现在的贫困问题仍主要集中在农村地区。尽管我国没有官方的城市贫困线,但是一些研究如Ravallion & Chen(2004)等通过构建与农村贫困线具有可比性的对城市贫困线,证明了城市地区贫困水平可忽略不计。参见世界银行.从贫困地区到贫困人群：中国扶贫议程的演进,2009.3,15,45.
①世界银行.从贫困地区到贫困人群：中国扶贫议程的演进[M],北京：世界银行东亚及太平洋地区扶贫与经济管理局,2009.1-2.
①杨俊,王燕,张宗益.中国金融发展与贫困减少的经验分析[J].世界经济,2008,(8),62.
①“三无”群体无生活来源、无劳动能力和无法定赡养和抚养人的特殊救济对象.
②参见：中国城镇贫困研究课题组.城镇贫困：中国发展的新挑战[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2003,49.
①这里是以城镇低保为判断依据。
②转引自魏后凯,邬晓霞.中国的反贫困政策：评价与展望[J].上海行政学院学报,2009,(3),62.
①观点引自于：叶普万.贫困经济学研究.北京：中国社会科学出版社,2004.162.
①中国发展研究基金会.中国发展报告2007——发展中消除贫困[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2007.62.
②中国发展研究基金会.中国发展报告2007——发展中消除贫困[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2007.3.
③转引自汪三贵.在发展中战胜贫困[R].中国改革30年,王梦奎主编,2009,(6)：354.
①周彬彬.对“七五”期间扶贫基本政策的反思[J].经济开发论坛,1990,(12)
②中国发展研究基金会.中国发展报告2007——展中消除贫困[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2007,127.
①张斯路.中国小额贷款公司数量破4000家,从业人员达4.4万人.国际在线专稿2012-01-10 15:41:01, http://gb.cri.cn/27824/2012/01/10/5951s3516560.htm[2012.1.17]
①本部分内容经过整理已向《金融研究》投稿,并被录用。
②相关内容参见：(美)巴蒂.H.巴尔塔基著,白伯林等译.面板数据计量经济分析[M].机械工业出版社,2010,5,128-140.
①李群峰.动态面板数据模型的GMM估计及其应用[J].统计与决策,2010,16,161-163.
①AlC:Akaike information criterion. SBC:Schwarz Bayesian criterion. HQC:Hannan-Quinn criterion.
①Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Chomsisengphet, S.,2002, "Stability of M2 Money Demand Function in industrial Countries", Applied Economics, Vol.34, pp2075-2083.
①Phillips和Perron (1988)和Schwert(1989)等通过蒙特卡洛模拟试验发现,在小样本情况下ADF检验的功效也较低。具体参见房林,邹卫星.多种单位根检验法的比较研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,(1)：151-160.
①王曙光.中国的贫困与反贫困[J].农村经济,2011,(3)：3-4
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①萨缪尔森.经济学(上册)[M].第14版.北京：北京经济学院出版社,1996.658.
②分别出自《说文》和《广雅·释沽四》
③“贫”与“富”可量度属性的解释比英国古典经济学家Adam Smith的定义要早2000多年。
④亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因研究(上卷)[M].北京：商务印书馆,1972.26.
⑤(英)彼罗·斯拉法.李嘉图著作和通信集[M].北京：商务印书馆,1962,232.
⑥Rowntree的收入贫困以及贫困线的划分方法,直到现在仍被使用。
①(美)劳埃德·雷诺兹.微观经济学[M].北京：商务印书馆,1984.430-431.
②郭熙保,罗知.论贫困概念的演进[J].江西社会科学,2005,(11)：42.
①唐钧.中国城市贫困居民线研究[M].上海：上海社会科学院出版社,1998.14。其中提及欧共体员会的《向贫困开战的共同体特别行动计划的中期报告》,转引自Atkinson, A. B.,1993, "The Institution of an Official Poverty Line and Economic Policy", Welfare State Program Paper Series Vol 98.
②吴理财.“贫困”的经济学分析及其分析的贫困[J].经济评论,2001,(4)：3-4.
①Alcock P. (1993)同时认为相对贫困是一种较为主观的标准,它是建立在将穷人与其它不贫困人生活水平的比较基础上的,通常要包括对社会总体平均水平的测度。
②(英)安德鲁·韦伯斯特.发展社会学[M].北京：华夏出版社,1987.2.
③参见《中国城镇居民贫困问题研究》课题组和《中国农村贫困标准》课题组的研究报告(1990年).
①谈儒勇.金融发展理论与中国金融发展[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2000.15.
②“金融抑制”和“金融深化”理论被认为是发展经济学和货币金融理论的重大突破,标志着金融发展理论的正式形成,许多发展中国家货币金融政策的制定及货币金融改革的实践都深受这两个理论的影响。
①本部分主要参考了郑明海博士的相关总结。具体参见郑明海.开放经济下中国金融发展的生产率效应研究[D].浙江大学博士学位论文,2008,9,14-19.
②Stulz & Williamson之所以选择宗教和语言作为文化变量是基于Weber(1930)的研究。Weber(1930)认为宗教是资本主义增长的主要决定因素,而相同的语言便于信仰的交流和传播。因此,这两个变量不依赖目前的金融发展水平,从而可以避免陷入因果循环论证。
①一个国家的模型可以保证在研究的过程中制度差异保持不变。选择意大利作为样本的主要原因在于其司法、行政、监管和税收的统一以及南北社会资本水平的显著不同。
②马尔萨斯.人口论[M].郭大力(译).北京：北京大学出版社,2008,7.
①王朝明.马克思主义贫困理论的创新与发展[J].当代经济研究,2008,(2)：1-7.
②马克思恩格斯全集(第23卷)[M].北京：人民出版社,1973.692-708.
①Kakwani, Prakash & Son (2000), Ravallion (2001,2004),也认为初始收入不平等对贫困收入弹性有着重要的影响。
②由于穷人需要更多的时间才能从公共援助的政策或战略中获益,因此,短期的公共援助需要采取措施保护社会弱势群体。
③(美)戴维.罗默著,苏剑,罗涛译.高级宏观经济学[M].北京：商务印书馆,1999,9-36.
④孙力军.中国金融发展与经济增长关系的理论和实证分析[D].复旦大学,2007.10.
①参考了张立军博士的相关总结,参见张立军.金融发展影响城乡收入差距的实证研究[D].复旦大学,2007.
①陈志刚,王皖君.金融自由化对贫困影响研究动态[J].经济学动态,2008,8,99.
②这一减贫的积极作用被McKinnon (1973)称为导管效应。
①Eswar, P., Rogoff, K., Wei S. J., et al,2003, "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries:Some Empirical Evidence", IMF Board Document, Washington DC:International Monetary Fund. http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/docs/2003/031703.pdf
②金融自由化的正效应主要反应在经济增长及其所带了的方面,这里着重阐述负效应,即金融不稳定以及金融危机这一方面的影响。
①吴忠,叶辅靖,黄承伟等.金融危机与减贫：中国经济刺激政策及减贫效果分析,北京：知识产权出版社,2010.4,23.
①这一观点来自陈银娥,师文明.微型金融对贫困减少的影响研究述评[J].经济学动态,2011,(4)：130-135.
①陈银娥,师文明.微型金融对贫困减少的影响研究述评[J].经济学动态,2011,(4)：130-135.
①Foro & Ray(1997)认为,这一作用依赖于非正规信贷体系的市场结构。参见Floro, M., S., and Ray, D.,1997, "Vertical Links between Formal and Informal Financial Institutions", Review of Development Economics, Vol. 1,No.1, pp34-56.
①我国一种十分古老的民间信用互助形式,普通百姓如遇结婚、生病、盖房等等,急需用款时,互相帮助且互利互惠。据考证,标会在我国起源于唐宋年间,现今广泛流行于福建、广东、浙江、台湾乃至海外华人社区。
②陈银娥,师文明.微型金融对贫困减少的影响研究述评[J].经济学动态,2011,(4)：130-135.
①“四行”即中央银行、中国银行、交通银行、中国农民银行；“二局”即中央信托局、邮政储金汇业局,“一库”即中央合作金库。当时国民党政府重要的金融垄断工具。
②戴相龙,黄达.中华金融辞库[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1998.1535-1536.
③如在瑞金成立的中华苏维埃共和国国家银行,陕甘宁边区银行和华北银行等,这些银行为人民战争的胜利和新中国的成立作出了巨大贡献。
①戴相龙.商业银行经营管理[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1998.1.
①王元主.中国金融展望[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1994.
①参考易纲(1996)、易纲,宋旺(2008)的研究,本文的金融资产以现金、存款余额、贷款余额、债券余额、股票市值以及保费收入进行计算。按照国际惯例,存款和贷款都看成为金融资产(易纲,宋旺,2008)。
①参见陈刚,李树.金融发展与增长源泉：要素积累、技术进步与效率改善[J].南方经济,2009,(5),24-35.
①杨海燕.金融中介发展论[D].四川大学,2006.109.
①我国贫困人口的统计和贫困发生率的计算都是基于绝对贫困的概念,即“尚未解决温饱问题”的人口。
②实际上我国现在的贫困问题仍主要集中在农村地区。尽管我国没有官方的城市贫困线,但是一些研究如Ravallion & Chen(2004)等通过构建与农村贫困线具有可比性的对城市贫困线,证明了城市地区贫困水平可忽略不计。参见世界银行.从贫困地区到贫困人群：中国扶贫议程的演进,2009.3,15,45.
①世界银行.从贫困地区到贫困人群：中国扶贫议程的演进[M],北京：世界银行东亚及太平洋地区扶贫与经济管理局,2009.1-2.
①杨俊,王燕,张宗益.中国金融发展与贫困减少的经验分析[J].世界经济,2008,(8),62.
①“三无”群体无生活来源、无劳动能力和无法定赡养和抚养人的特殊救济对象.
②参见：中国城镇贫困研究课题组.城镇贫困：中国发展的新挑战[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2003,49.
①这里是以城镇低保为判断依据。
②转引自魏后凯,邬晓霞.中国的反贫困政策：评价与展望[J].上海行政学院学报,2009,(3),62.
①观点引自于：叶普万.贫困经济学研究.北京：中国社会科学出版社,2004.162.
①中国发展研究基金会.中国发展报告2007——发展中消除贫困[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2007.62.
②中国发展研究基金会.中国发展报告2007——发展中消除贫困[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2007.3.
③转引自汪三贵.在发展中战胜贫困[R].中国改革30年,王梦奎主编,2009,(6)：354.
①周彬彬.对“七五”期间扶贫基本政策的反思[J].经济开发论坛,1990,(12)
②中国发展研究基金会.中国发展报告2007——展中消除贫困[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2007,127.
①张斯路.中国小额贷款公司数量破4000家,从业人员达4.4万人.国际在线专稿2012-01-10 15:41:01, http://gb.cri.cn/27824/2012/01/10/5951s3516560.htm[2012.1.17]
①本部分内容经过整理已向《金融研究》投稿,并被录用。
②相关内容参见：(美)巴蒂.H.巴尔塔基著,白伯林等译.面板数据计量经济分析[M].机械工业出版社,2010,5,128-140.
①李群峰.动态面板数据模型的GMM估计及其应用[J].统计与决策,2010,16,161-163.
①AlC:Akaike information criterion. SBC:Schwarz Bayesian criterion. HQC:Hannan-Quinn criterion.
①Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Chomsisengphet, S.,2002, "Stability of M2 Money Demand Function in industrial Countries", Applied Economics, Vol.34, pp2075-2083.
①Phillips和Perron (1988)和Schwert(1989)等通过蒙特卡洛模拟试验发现,在小样本情况下ADF检验的功效也较低。具体参见房林,邹卫星.多种单位根检验法的比较研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,(1)：151-160.
①王曙光.中国的贫困与反贫困[J].农村经济,2011,(3)：3-4
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