我国工业产能过剩的测度、预警及对经济影响的实证研究
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摘要
产能大于需求是市场经济条件下的正常现象,是经济周期性波动中市场供求关系的特殊表现,但是当产能超过有效需求达到一定程度时,便会形成产能过剩,从而给社会经济生活带来很多负面效应。产能过剩现象的出现不仅会造成资源和能源的大量浪费以及非有效配置,而且产品供过于求会造成企业之间恶性竞争,市场经济秩序混乱,产品价格大幅回落、库存增加、企业经济效益下降甚至亏损倒闭,大批员工失业,银行坏账增多以及信贷风险增加,贸易摩擦加大,经济结构性矛盾突出等等问题,最终将会影响到整个国家经济的持续健康发展。
20世纪90年代中期以来,随着我国分配体制的变化,消费品行业出现全面产能过剩现象。进入21世纪,我国经济开始新一轮增长,产能过剩迅速从消费品生产领域蔓延到投资品生产领域,在住宅和汽车等消费带动下,部分生产资料领域出现短缺,从而引发了投资热潮。由于市场有效需求不足,在投资周期结束、巨大产能开始集中释放时,产能过剩矛盾突出,严重影响了我国工业行业和企业的健康发展。因此,如何运用科学有效的方法测度我国工业行业的产能利用水平,建立行业安全监测预警系统,分析产能过剩的成因以及产能过剩对宏观经济所造成的影响,对于企业和政府决策部门了解我国产能过剩行业的波动特征、监测行业的经济运行动态和产能利用状况以及有效缓解我国产能过剩问题具有重要意义。
本文基于大量与产能过剩研究相关的国内外文献,利用定性描述和定量分析相结合的方法,从我国行业产能过剩的测度着手,在此基础上考察了产能过剩与固定资产投资、金融以及产业结构之间的关系,并建立了我国行业产能过剩安全监测预警系统来动态关注行业发展态势和产能利用状况。最后,针对如何缓解我国的产能过剩问题提出了相应的政策建议。本文的主要创新如下：
一、本文在微观经济学生产、成本、均衡理论基础上,借鉴Berndt和Morrison(1981)提出的成本函数法,利用面板数据模型的广义矩估计方法(GMM)测度了我国重工业和轻工业28个行业1999～2008年的产能利用水平,分析了我国制造业行业发展的波动特征。测度结果表明：我国制造业28个行业中有黑色金属、有色金属、石化炼焦、化学原料、非金属矿物制品、造纸业、化学纤维七个产能过剩行业；我国大部分行业产能利用率的变动呈现出与经济周期波动的一致性；国家采取多项宏观调控政策治理产能过剩,但收效甚微；对于一些对外依存度较高的传统劳动密集型行业和低端技术密集型行业,容易出现生产能力超负荷,产能利用率偏高现象。
在此基础上,针对七个产能过剩行业,本文建立了变系数面板数据模型,实证分析了产能过剩形成的直接原因,并针对我国宏观调控政策对抑制固定资产投资收效甚微这一现象,指出经济增长方式不合理、生产要素定价机制不合理、经济体制转轨过程中的体制缺陷、利益驱使以及思想认识偏差、储蓄率过高等是目前我国产能过剩形成的深层次原因。
二、本文在Lucas与Prescott提出的不确定条件下的投资需求理论以及国外学者对过剩产能和固定资产投资之间关系进行研究的理论模型基础上,利用动态面板数据模型(Dynamic Panel Data Model)建立了我国产能过剩行业的固定资产投资方程,然后分别从自筹资金和国内贷款两个角度建立了产能过剩行业的固定资产投资方程,重点对已形成的过剩产能对固定资产投资的影响进行分析。主要结论如下：已存在的过剩产能并未对产能过剩行业的固定资产投资总量起到抑制作用,这主要是因为我国经济体制不完善和产业信息制度不健全导致了政府和企业在产能已经过剩的情况下仍然出现投资膨胀现象。已存在的过剩产能也并未对自筹资金固定资产投资起到抑制作用,这主要归因于资本的逐利性。产能过剩行业最初大多是盈利性较高的行业,企业为了实现利润最大化,会将在较高经济效益下实现的自我积累进行再投资。已存在的过剩产能对国内贷款固定资产投资具有显著的抑制作用,这主要归因于商业银行出于信贷风险管理考虑,对产能过剩行业采取惜贷措施。
三、本文利用生产函数法测度了我国28个地区的工业产能利用率,作为各地区工业产能过剩程度的度量指标。进一步地,利用面板数据模型考察了全国以及不同区域内部工业产能过剩对银行资金流动性过剩的影响关系。结论表明：我国工业产能过剩与银行资金流动性过剩之间呈现出同方向变化。产能过剩降低了企业的贷款需求、增强了职工储蓄意愿、通过出口换取了大量外汇收入,这些都导致大量资金沉淀在银行系统内部,出现流动性过剩。我国东部地区产能过剩对银行资金流动性过剩的影响程度要低于中西部地区。主要是因为东部地区相对于中西部地区投融资渠道较广,从产能过剩行业退出来的资金可以相对容易地找到适当的投资渠道。
四、本文在市场结构理论基础上,对我国钢铁、水泥和电解铝行业市场结构与产能过剩的关系进行了分析。通过计算我国钢铁行业的集中度CRn、赫芬达尔指数HI以及熵指数EI,结果表明：我国钢铁行业的市场集中度整体水平偏低并且呈现出U型变动趋势。较低的市场集中度形成原因有很多,直接原因在于市场规模的不断扩大,深层次原因主要在于我国钢铁企业区域集中度较低；大型钢铁企业发展缓慢,而中小型钢铁企业发展迅速；地方政府利用各种优惠政策降低行业进入壁垒导致大量民营企业纷纷涌入钢铁市场；我国产能过剩行业兼并重组工作障碍重重,进展缓慢等。同样,我国水泥和电解铝行业的市场集中度整体水平也都很低。
钢铁、水泥和电解铝行业的产品差异化程度均较小,因此,行业内产品同质化竞争激烈,企业之间形成过度竞争,通过扩大生产规模降低成本展开价格战。另外,我国产能过剩行业多表现出“易进难出”,缺乏严格的市场准入标准和有效的进入壁垒；同时,由于落后产能退出涉及问题较多,大量落后产能在地方政府的保护下也很难从市场中退出,稀释了市场集中程度,都导致这些行业低水平重复建设现象严重。
五、本文选取了十个既能够反映行业产能过剩特征、又能够反映产能利用状况的经济预警指标,分别构建了我国钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品业三个行业的产能过剩安全监测预警系统。结果表明：在东南亚金融危机、美国经济泡沫破灭以及“9·11”事件的影响下,2001年,我国钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品行业产能利用状况综合指数较2000年均发生了不同程度的下降。随后,我国经济高速发展拉动了基础原材料行业的市场需求,钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品的行业产能利用状况综合指数大幅上升。然而,2005年,经济高速增长所带来的固定资产投资大多建成投产,产能集中释放,导致钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品行业的供给已经远远大于需求,产能利用状况综合指数出现了大幅下降,并且钢铁和非金属矿物制品行业进入了产能显著过剩的预警区间。2006年以后,随着国内外经济形势发展愈加良好,我国钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品行业的产能利用状况综合指数出现大幅回升。直至2008年,全球金融危机导致国内外经济低迷,需求萎缩,我国钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品行业的产能利用状况综合指数发生大幅下降,并且钢铁行业和有色金属行业进入了产能显著过剩的预警区间,产能过剩问题更加突出。
本文借鉴国际上先进的产能过剩理论和研究方法,从多个角度对我国工业产能过剩问题进行研究。本文对产能利用水平的测度、波动特征、产能过剩成因以及监测预警系统的建立等问题的研究有助于深入探讨我国经济体制转轨时期产能过剩行业的运行状况及变动趋势,而且对于工业企业进行理性投资、工业行业健康发展、政府决策部门制定宏观调控措施缓解产能过剩进而对于国民经济持续快速发展等具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
That the production capacity is gteater than the demand is a normal phenomenon in the conditions of market economy and the special performance of the relationship between supply and demand in the cyclical economic fluctuations. However, if the production capacity exceeds the effective demand to some extent, the excess capacity emerges, it will bring many negative effects to the social and economic life. The emergence of excess capacity not only results in a large waste and non-effective allocation of resources and energy, but also oversupply of products will result in vicious competition between enterprises, market disorder, product prices fall significantly, inventories increase, economic benefits of enterprises decrease or even loss and close down, a great number of workers unemployed, the bad debts of banks increase and the credit risk increase, trade friction increase and economic structural contradiction becomes prominent and so on, it will eventually affect the sustained and healthy development of the national economy as a whole.
Since the1990s, as China's distribution system changes, the production capacity of the consumer goods industry was generally excessive. Since the beginning of the21st century, accompanied by China's new round of economic growth, the prolem of the excess production capacity has spread from the production sector of consumer goods to the production sector of investment goods. Driven by the consumption of the housing and automobile and so on, the shortage of part of the production areas appears, which gives rise to the investment boom. Due to lack of effective demand in the market, when the investment cycle ended and the huge production capacity began to release concentratedly, the production capacity was excessive obviously, which seriously affected the healthy development of China's industries and businesses.
Therefore, how to measure China's industrial capacity utilization level and establish safety monitoring and early warning system of industries with scientific and effective methods, analyze the causes of the excess production capacity and the effects of the excess production capacity on the macroeconomy has important significance for understanding China's industry volatility features and monitoring the industry economic running dynamics and the situation of excess capacity and effectively alleviate China's problem of excess production capacity for the enterprises and government decision-making departments.
On the basis of a large number of literature home and abroad which are related to excess capacity, using the methods of qualitative description and quantitative analysis combined, this paper makes the measurement of the industry excess production capacity as a beginning, and then investigates the relationships between the excess capacity and the investment in fixed assets, finance and industrial organization structure, establishes the security monitoring early warning system of the industries with excess capacity in our country to dynamically focus on the industry development trend and the conditions of capacity utilization. In the end, this paper makes the corresponding policy recommendations on how to alleviate China's excess capacity effectively. The main innovations are as follows:
Firstly, based on production, cost and equilibrium theory in Microeconomics, this paper makes use of cost function method proposed by Berndt and Morrison(1981) and the Generalized Method of Moments of Panel model to measure the capacity utilization rate level of twenty-eight heavy industries and light industries of China from1999to2008respectively and analyzes the volatility features of China's manufacturing industry development. The results show that there are seven industries which belong to industries with excess capacity among twenty-eight manufacturing industries in our country, including ferrous metal, nonferrous metal, petrochemical and coking, chemical raw materials, non-metallic mineral products, paper industry, chemical fiber. The changes of capacity utilization level of China's most industries show the consistency with economic cycle fluctuations. The government has taken many macro-control policies to alleviate the excess capacity, but with little success. Some traditional labor-intensive and low-end technology-intensive industries which have higher dependence on foreign countries are prone to the production capacity overloading and higher capacity utilization level.
And then establishes the Panel Data Model with variable coefficients, which makes use of empirical analysis to prove that the investment in fixed assets is the direct cause of the excess production capacity for the seven industries with excess production capacity. In response to the phenomenon of the macro-control policies have little effect on curbing investment in fixed assets, this paper elaborates that the unreasonable mode of economic growth, the irrational pricing mechanism of the production factors, the institutional weaknesses in the process of economic system transition, driven by interests and understanding bias, the high saving rate and so on are the underlying causes of current excess production capacity in our country.
Secondly, based on the theory of investment demand under uncertain conditions which is proposed by Lucas and Prescott and the theoretical models of the relationship between excess capacity and investment in fixed assets studied by foreign scholars, this paper makes use of Dynamic Panel Data Model to construct the equation of the investment in fixed assets of China's industries with excess capacity, and then to construct the equation of the investment in fixed assets of China's industries with excess capacity from two aspects of self-financing and domestic loans, focusing on the effects of the existed excess capacity on investment in fixed assets, the main conclusions are as follows:the existed excess capacity does not play an inhibitory effect on the total investment of industries with excess capacity, This is mainly because China's economic institution is unsound and the industry information system is not perfect, which makes the government and the businesses still have the expansion phenomenon of investment in the condition of excess production capacity. The existed excess capacity does not play an inhibitory effect on self-financing investment in fixed assets, which is mainly due to the profit-driven nature of the capital. The industries with excess capacity were originally industries with high profitability, in order to pursue the profit maximization, the enterprises reinvestment with self-accumulation achieved in higher economic efficiency.The existed excess capacity has a significant inhibitory effect on domestic loans investment in fixed assets, which is mainly attributed to the credit risk management and the credit crunch measures of the commercial banks.
Thirdly, this paper measures the industrial capacity utilization level of China's twenty-eight areas with the production function method as the indicator of the degree of industrial excess capacity. Further, this paper makes use of the panel data model to study the effects of industrial excess capacity on the excess liquidity in banks of the entire country and different regions, the conclusions indicate that the liquidity in China's banks changes the same direction with the industrial capacity utilization level. Excess capacity reduces the demand for loans of enterprises, enhances the workers' willingness to save, exchanges for a large number of foreign exchange earnings through exports, which all have make a large number of money deposited in the bank system and show the excess liqudity. The capacity utilization level in eastern China has lower effects on liquidity in the banks than the central and western regions, which is mainly because that compared to the central and western regions, the eastern part has wider investment and financing channels, the funds which exit from the industries with excess capacity can relatively easily find the appropriate investment channels.
Fourthly, based on the theory of market structure, this paper analyzes the relationship between the market structure and the excess production capacity of China's steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum industry, through the calculation of the degree of concentration CRn, Herfindahl Index(HI) and Entropy Index(EI), showing that the market degree of concentration of China's steel industry is overall on the low level and showing a U-shaped changing trend. There are many reasons of the formation of low degree of market concentration, the direct reason lies to the expanding size of market, and the underlying reasons mainly lie to that China's steel enterprises have low regional degree of concentration, large steel enterprises develop slow, and the small and medium-sized steel enterprises have developed rapidly, the local government reduces industry barriers with all kinds of favorable policies to allow a large number of private enterprises to pour into the steel market, moreover, there are many obstacles for the industries with excess capacity to merge and reorganize and the progress is slow. Similarly, the overall level of the market concentration of China's cement and electrolytic aluminum industry are also low.
The degree of product differentiation of the steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum industry are all small, therefore, the industry product homogeneity is high competitive, there are excessive competition between enterprises, which launch a price war by expanding the production scale to reduce costs. In addition, China's industries with excess capacity always show that easily into and hard out, lack of the strict market access standards and effective barriers to enter, at the same time, the exit of the backward production capacity involves many problems, it is difficult for the large backward production capacity to exit from the market under the protection of the local government, diluting the degree of market concentration and resulting in the serious low-level redundant construction of all of these industries.
Fifthly, this paper chooses ten economic early warning indicators which not only can reflect the features of industry excess capacity, but also reflect the capacity utilization situation, and then constructs the excess capacity safety monitoring and early warning system of three industries which are steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products. The results show that under the influence of financial crisis in Southeast Asia, the U.S. economic bubble burst and the9·11, in the year of2001, China's industry capacity utilization situation composite index of steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products have decreased in varying degrees compared with that in2000. Subsequently, China's rapid economic development has spurred the demand for basic raw materials industry, the industry capacity utilization situation composite index of steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products increased substantially. However, in the year of2005, the investment in fixed assets brought about by the rapid economic growth are mostly completed and put into operation, then the productioin capacity released concentratedly, leading to the supply of the three industries which are steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products have been far greater than the demand, the capacity utilization situation composite index dropped sharply, and the industries of steel and non-metallic mineral products had entered into the warning interval of obviously excessive capacity. After the year of2006, with the increasingly good economic situation at home and abroad, the capacity utilization situation composite index of the three industries which are steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products rebounded sharply. Until the year of2008, the global financial crisis led to the economic downturn at home and abroad, the capacity utilization situation composite index of the three industries which are steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products dropped significantly, and the industries of steel and non-ferrous metals had entered into the warning interval of obviously excessive capacity, the problem of excess capacity is more prominent.
This paper draws on the international advanced theory and research methods of excess capacity and makes a study of China's problem of excess capacity from various angles. The study on the measurement of capacity utilization level, volatility features, causes of excess capacity and construction of monitoring and early warning system and so on will help to in-depth explore the running situation and changing trends of industries with excess capacity during the economic transition period, and has important theoretical and practical significance for the industrial enterprises to carry out the rational investment, for the industrial sectors to develop healthily, for the government departments to develop macro-control measures so as to alleviate excess production capacity as well as for the national economy to have a sustained, rapid development.
20世纪90年代中期以来,随着我国分配体制的变化,消费品行业出现全面产能过剩现象。进入21世纪,我国经济开始新一轮增长,产能过剩迅速从消费品生产领域蔓延到投资品生产领域,在住宅和汽车等消费带动下,部分生产资料领域出现短缺,从而引发了投资热潮。由于市场有效需求不足,在投资周期结束、巨大产能开始集中释放时,产能过剩矛盾突出,严重影响了我国工业行业和企业的健康发展。因此,如何运用科学有效的方法测度我国工业行业的产能利用水平,建立行业安全监测预警系统,分析产能过剩的成因以及产能过剩对宏观经济所造成的影响,对于企业和政府决策部门了解我国产能过剩行业的波动特征、监测行业的经济运行动态和产能利用状况以及有效缓解我国产能过剩问题具有重要意义。
本文基于大量与产能过剩研究相关的国内外文献,利用定性描述和定量分析相结合的方法,从我国行业产能过剩的测度着手,在此基础上考察了产能过剩与固定资产投资、金融以及产业结构之间的关系,并建立了我国行业产能过剩安全监测预警系统来动态关注行业发展态势和产能利用状况。最后,针对如何缓解我国的产能过剩问题提出了相应的政策建议。本文的主要创新如下：
一、本文在微观经济学生产、成本、均衡理论基础上,借鉴Berndt和Morrison(1981)提出的成本函数法,利用面板数据模型的广义矩估计方法(GMM)测度了我国重工业和轻工业28个行业1999～2008年的产能利用水平,分析了我国制造业行业发展的波动特征。测度结果表明：我国制造业28个行业中有黑色金属、有色金属、石化炼焦、化学原料、非金属矿物制品、造纸业、化学纤维七个产能过剩行业；我国大部分行业产能利用率的变动呈现出与经济周期波动的一致性；国家采取多项宏观调控政策治理产能过剩,但收效甚微；对于一些对外依存度较高的传统劳动密集型行业和低端技术密集型行业,容易出现生产能力超负荷,产能利用率偏高现象。
在此基础上,针对七个产能过剩行业,本文建立了变系数面板数据模型,实证分析了产能过剩形成的直接原因,并针对我国宏观调控政策对抑制固定资产投资收效甚微这一现象,指出经济增长方式不合理、生产要素定价机制不合理、经济体制转轨过程中的体制缺陷、利益驱使以及思想认识偏差、储蓄率过高等是目前我国产能过剩形成的深层次原因。
二、本文在Lucas与Prescott提出的不确定条件下的投资需求理论以及国外学者对过剩产能和固定资产投资之间关系进行研究的理论模型基础上,利用动态面板数据模型(Dynamic Panel Data Model)建立了我国产能过剩行业的固定资产投资方程,然后分别从自筹资金和国内贷款两个角度建立了产能过剩行业的固定资产投资方程,重点对已形成的过剩产能对固定资产投资的影响进行分析。主要结论如下：已存在的过剩产能并未对产能过剩行业的固定资产投资总量起到抑制作用,这主要是因为我国经济体制不完善和产业信息制度不健全导致了政府和企业在产能已经过剩的情况下仍然出现投资膨胀现象。已存在的过剩产能也并未对自筹资金固定资产投资起到抑制作用,这主要归因于资本的逐利性。产能过剩行业最初大多是盈利性较高的行业,企业为了实现利润最大化,会将在较高经济效益下实现的自我积累进行再投资。已存在的过剩产能对国内贷款固定资产投资具有显著的抑制作用,这主要归因于商业银行出于信贷风险管理考虑,对产能过剩行业采取惜贷措施。
三、本文利用生产函数法测度了我国28个地区的工业产能利用率,作为各地区工业产能过剩程度的度量指标。进一步地,利用面板数据模型考察了全国以及不同区域内部工业产能过剩对银行资金流动性过剩的影响关系。结论表明：我国工业产能过剩与银行资金流动性过剩之间呈现出同方向变化。产能过剩降低了企业的贷款需求、增强了职工储蓄意愿、通过出口换取了大量外汇收入,这些都导致大量资金沉淀在银行系统内部,出现流动性过剩。我国东部地区产能过剩对银行资金流动性过剩的影响程度要低于中西部地区。主要是因为东部地区相对于中西部地区投融资渠道较广,从产能过剩行业退出来的资金可以相对容易地找到适当的投资渠道。
四、本文在市场结构理论基础上,对我国钢铁、水泥和电解铝行业市场结构与产能过剩的关系进行了分析。通过计算我国钢铁行业的集中度CRn、赫芬达尔指数HI以及熵指数EI,结果表明：我国钢铁行业的市场集中度整体水平偏低并且呈现出U型变动趋势。较低的市场集中度形成原因有很多,直接原因在于市场规模的不断扩大,深层次原因主要在于我国钢铁企业区域集中度较低；大型钢铁企业发展缓慢,而中小型钢铁企业发展迅速；地方政府利用各种优惠政策降低行业进入壁垒导致大量民营企业纷纷涌入钢铁市场；我国产能过剩行业兼并重组工作障碍重重,进展缓慢等。同样,我国水泥和电解铝行业的市场集中度整体水平也都很低。
钢铁、水泥和电解铝行业的产品差异化程度均较小,因此,行业内产品同质化竞争激烈,企业之间形成过度竞争,通过扩大生产规模降低成本展开价格战。另外,我国产能过剩行业多表现出“易进难出”,缺乏严格的市场准入标准和有效的进入壁垒；同时,由于落后产能退出涉及问题较多,大量落后产能在地方政府的保护下也很难从市场中退出,稀释了市场集中程度,都导致这些行业低水平重复建设现象严重。
五、本文选取了十个既能够反映行业产能过剩特征、又能够反映产能利用状况的经济预警指标,分别构建了我国钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品业三个行业的产能过剩安全监测预警系统。结果表明：在东南亚金融危机、美国经济泡沫破灭以及“9·11”事件的影响下,2001年,我国钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品行业产能利用状况综合指数较2000年均发生了不同程度的下降。随后,我国经济高速发展拉动了基础原材料行业的市场需求,钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品的行业产能利用状况综合指数大幅上升。然而,2005年,经济高速增长所带来的固定资产投资大多建成投产,产能集中释放,导致钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品行业的供给已经远远大于需求,产能利用状况综合指数出现了大幅下降,并且钢铁和非金属矿物制品行业进入了产能显著过剩的预警区间。2006年以后,随着国内外经济形势发展愈加良好,我国钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品行业的产能利用状况综合指数出现大幅回升。直至2008年,全球金融危机导致国内外经济低迷,需求萎缩,我国钢铁、有色金属和非金属矿物制品行业的产能利用状况综合指数发生大幅下降,并且钢铁行业和有色金属行业进入了产能显著过剩的预警区间,产能过剩问题更加突出。
本文借鉴国际上先进的产能过剩理论和研究方法,从多个角度对我国工业产能过剩问题进行研究。本文对产能利用水平的测度、波动特征、产能过剩成因以及监测预警系统的建立等问题的研究有助于深入探讨我国经济体制转轨时期产能过剩行业的运行状况及变动趋势,而且对于工业企业进行理性投资、工业行业健康发展、政府决策部门制定宏观调控措施缓解产能过剩进而对于国民经济持续快速发展等具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
That the production capacity is gteater than the demand is a normal phenomenon in the conditions of market economy and the special performance of the relationship between supply and demand in the cyclical economic fluctuations. However, if the production capacity exceeds the effective demand to some extent, the excess capacity emerges, it will bring many negative effects to the social and economic life. The emergence of excess capacity not only results in a large waste and non-effective allocation of resources and energy, but also oversupply of products will result in vicious competition between enterprises, market disorder, product prices fall significantly, inventories increase, economic benefits of enterprises decrease or even loss and close down, a great number of workers unemployed, the bad debts of banks increase and the credit risk increase, trade friction increase and economic structural contradiction becomes prominent and so on, it will eventually affect the sustained and healthy development of the national economy as a whole.
Since the1990s, as China's distribution system changes, the production capacity of the consumer goods industry was generally excessive. Since the beginning of the21st century, accompanied by China's new round of economic growth, the prolem of the excess production capacity has spread from the production sector of consumer goods to the production sector of investment goods. Driven by the consumption of the housing and automobile and so on, the shortage of part of the production areas appears, which gives rise to the investment boom. Due to lack of effective demand in the market, when the investment cycle ended and the huge production capacity began to release concentratedly, the production capacity was excessive obviously, which seriously affected the healthy development of China's industries and businesses.
Therefore, how to measure China's industrial capacity utilization level and establish safety monitoring and early warning system of industries with scientific and effective methods, analyze the causes of the excess production capacity and the effects of the excess production capacity on the macroeconomy has important significance for understanding China's industry volatility features and monitoring the industry economic running dynamics and the situation of excess capacity and effectively alleviate China's problem of excess production capacity for the enterprises and government decision-making departments.
On the basis of a large number of literature home and abroad which are related to excess capacity, using the methods of qualitative description and quantitative analysis combined, this paper makes the measurement of the industry excess production capacity as a beginning, and then investigates the relationships between the excess capacity and the investment in fixed assets, finance and industrial organization structure, establishes the security monitoring early warning system of the industries with excess capacity in our country to dynamically focus on the industry development trend and the conditions of capacity utilization. In the end, this paper makes the corresponding policy recommendations on how to alleviate China's excess capacity effectively. The main innovations are as follows:
Firstly, based on production, cost and equilibrium theory in Microeconomics, this paper makes use of cost function method proposed by Berndt and Morrison(1981) and the Generalized Method of Moments of Panel model to measure the capacity utilization rate level of twenty-eight heavy industries and light industries of China from1999to2008respectively and analyzes the volatility features of China's manufacturing industry development. The results show that there are seven industries which belong to industries with excess capacity among twenty-eight manufacturing industries in our country, including ferrous metal, nonferrous metal, petrochemical and coking, chemical raw materials, non-metallic mineral products, paper industry, chemical fiber. The changes of capacity utilization level of China's most industries show the consistency with economic cycle fluctuations. The government has taken many macro-control policies to alleviate the excess capacity, but with little success. Some traditional labor-intensive and low-end technology-intensive industries which have higher dependence on foreign countries are prone to the production capacity overloading and higher capacity utilization level.
And then establishes the Panel Data Model with variable coefficients, which makes use of empirical analysis to prove that the investment in fixed assets is the direct cause of the excess production capacity for the seven industries with excess production capacity. In response to the phenomenon of the macro-control policies have little effect on curbing investment in fixed assets, this paper elaborates that the unreasonable mode of economic growth, the irrational pricing mechanism of the production factors, the institutional weaknesses in the process of economic system transition, driven by interests and understanding bias, the high saving rate and so on are the underlying causes of current excess production capacity in our country.
Secondly, based on the theory of investment demand under uncertain conditions which is proposed by Lucas and Prescott and the theoretical models of the relationship between excess capacity and investment in fixed assets studied by foreign scholars, this paper makes use of Dynamic Panel Data Model to construct the equation of the investment in fixed assets of China's industries with excess capacity, and then to construct the equation of the investment in fixed assets of China's industries with excess capacity from two aspects of self-financing and domestic loans, focusing on the effects of the existed excess capacity on investment in fixed assets, the main conclusions are as follows:the existed excess capacity does not play an inhibitory effect on the total investment of industries with excess capacity, This is mainly because China's economic institution is unsound and the industry information system is not perfect, which makes the government and the businesses still have the expansion phenomenon of investment in the condition of excess production capacity. The existed excess capacity does not play an inhibitory effect on self-financing investment in fixed assets, which is mainly due to the profit-driven nature of the capital. The industries with excess capacity were originally industries with high profitability, in order to pursue the profit maximization, the enterprises reinvestment with self-accumulation achieved in higher economic efficiency.The existed excess capacity has a significant inhibitory effect on domestic loans investment in fixed assets, which is mainly attributed to the credit risk management and the credit crunch measures of the commercial banks.
Thirdly, this paper measures the industrial capacity utilization level of China's twenty-eight areas with the production function method as the indicator of the degree of industrial excess capacity. Further, this paper makes use of the panel data model to study the effects of industrial excess capacity on the excess liquidity in banks of the entire country and different regions, the conclusions indicate that the liquidity in China's banks changes the same direction with the industrial capacity utilization level. Excess capacity reduces the demand for loans of enterprises, enhances the workers' willingness to save, exchanges for a large number of foreign exchange earnings through exports, which all have make a large number of money deposited in the bank system and show the excess liqudity. The capacity utilization level in eastern China has lower effects on liquidity in the banks than the central and western regions, which is mainly because that compared to the central and western regions, the eastern part has wider investment and financing channels, the funds which exit from the industries with excess capacity can relatively easily find the appropriate investment channels.
Fourthly, based on the theory of market structure, this paper analyzes the relationship between the market structure and the excess production capacity of China's steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum industry, through the calculation of the degree of concentration CRn, Herfindahl Index(HI) and Entropy Index(EI), showing that the market degree of concentration of China's steel industry is overall on the low level and showing a U-shaped changing trend. There are many reasons of the formation of low degree of market concentration, the direct reason lies to the expanding size of market, and the underlying reasons mainly lie to that China's steel enterprises have low regional degree of concentration, large steel enterprises develop slow, and the small and medium-sized steel enterprises have developed rapidly, the local government reduces industry barriers with all kinds of favorable policies to allow a large number of private enterprises to pour into the steel market, moreover, there are many obstacles for the industries with excess capacity to merge and reorganize and the progress is slow. Similarly, the overall level of the market concentration of China's cement and electrolytic aluminum industry are also low.
The degree of product differentiation of the steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum industry are all small, therefore, the industry product homogeneity is high competitive, there are excessive competition between enterprises, which launch a price war by expanding the production scale to reduce costs. In addition, China's industries with excess capacity always show that easily into and hard out, lack of the strict market access standards and effective barriers to enter, at the same time, the exit of the backward production capacity involves many problems, it is difficult for the large backward production capacity to exit from the market under the protection of the local government, diluting the degree of market concentration and resulting in the serious low-level redundant construction of all of these industries.
Fifthly, this paper chooses ten economic early warning indicators which not only can reflect the features of industry excess capacity, but also reflect the capacity utilization situation, and then constructs the excess capacity safety monitoring and early warning system of three industries which are steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products. The results show that under the influence of financial crisis in Southeast Asia, the U.S. economic bubble burst and the9·11, in the year of2001, China's industry capacity utilization situation composite index of steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products have decreased in varying degrees compared with that in2000. Subsequently, China's rapid economic development has spurred the demand for basic raw materials industry, the industry capacity utilization situation composite index of steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products increased substantially. However, in the year of2005, the investment in fixed assets brought about by the rapid economic growth are mostly completed and put into operation, then the productioin capacity released concentratedly, leading to the supply of the three industries which are steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products have been far greater than the demand, the capacity utilization situation composite index dropped sharply, and the industries of steel and non-metallic mineral products had entered into the warning interval of obviously excessive capacity. After the year of2006, with the increasingly good economic situation at home and abroad, the capacity utilization situation composite index of the three industries which are steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products rebounded sharply. Until the year of2008, the global financial crisis led to the economic downturn at home and abroad, the capacity utilization situation composite index of the three industries which are steel, nonferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products dropped significantly, and the industries of steel and non-ferrous metals had entered into the warning interval of obviously excessive capacity, the problem of excess capacity is more prominent.
This paper draws on the international advanced theory and research methods of excess capacity and makes a study of China's problem of excess capacity from various angles. The study on the measurement of capacity utilization level, volatility features, causes of excess capacity and construction of monitoring and early warning system and so on will help to in-depth explore the running situation and changing trends of industries with excess capacity during the economic transition period, and has important theoretical and practical significance for the industrial enterprises to carry out the rational investment, for the industrial sectors to develop healthily, for the government departments to develop macro-control measures so as to alleviate excess production capacity as well as for the national economy to have a sustained, rapid development.
引文
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③梁彦,《日本淘汰过剩和落后生产能力的做法》[J],《中国经贸导刊》,2001年第15期,p44。
①http//www.shandongbusiness.gov.cn,山东省商务厅网,“日本制造业转移动向及对策研究报告”,2005-5-23。
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②http://tg.mysteel.com,我的钢铁网,“巴西钢铁业者如何解决产能过剩问题”,2003-9-10。
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②根据William(2007),生产能力是指一个作业单元满负荷生产时所能处理的最大限度。可以分为两种：设计生产能力,指可实现的最大产出,或成为理想状况下的最大可能产出；有效生产能力,指在考虑了产品组合、机器维修及质量因素等情况下的最大可能产出。
③高鸿业,2000：《西方经济学》[M],中国人民大学出版社,P229-234；保罗·萨缪尔森,威廉·诺德豪斯著,萧琛等译,1999：《微观经济学》[M],华夏出版社,P110-113。
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①李江涛,2006：《产能过剩——问题、理论及治理机制》[M],中国财政经济出版社,P87。
①曹建海,江飞涛,2010：《中国工业投资中的重复建设与产能过剩问题研究》[M],经济管理出版社,P101。
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①财政部国际司课题组,《企业储蓄率偏高的原因、影响及对策》[J],《中国财政》,2009年第8期,p59-60。
①林凤萍,《再论我国银行流动性过剩问题》[J],《财经问题研究》,2007年第12期,p53-57。
①孙辉,支大林,李宏谨,《对中国各省资本存量的估计及典型性事实：1978-2008》[J],《广东金融学院学报》,2010年第3期,p103-116。
②董积生,戴鉴雄,商业银行流动性过剩成因考察[J],财经科学,2007年第1期,p10-16。
③张雪芳,王妙如,《我国国有商业流动性过剩实证研究》[J],《财贸经济》,2007年第12期,p51-55。
①数据来源于《2007年中国区域金融运行报告》。
②林莎,《我国东中西部地区外商投资与工业化进程实证研究》[J],《调研世界》,2011年第5期,p22-27。
①王俊豪,2008,《产业经济学》[M],高等教育出版社,p45-85；王传荣,2009,《产业经济学》[M],经济科学出版社,p47-82；王述英,白雪洁,杜传忠,2006,《产业经济学》[M],经济科学出版社,p33-60；苏东水,2010,《产业经济学》[M],高等教育出版社,p97-110。
①魏后凯,《市场竞争、市场绩效与产业集中——对改革开放以来中国制造业集中的实证研究》[D],中国社会科学院研究生院博士学位论文,2001年。
①赵晶,中国钢铁产业集中度的实证研究——基于企业“合纵连横”行为,《中外企业家》,2010年第3期,p3740。
①曹建海、江飞涛,2010：《中国工业投资中的重复建设与产能过剩问题研究》,经济管理出版社,p111。
②中国有色金属工业协会,郎大展,《结果调整对中国铝工业的影响及应对措施》[J],《中国铝业》,2010年第5期,p1-5。
③根据表6-14中产量和企业个数数据计算得到。
①何维达,何昌,当前中国三大产业安全的初步估算[J],中国工业经济,2002年第2期,P25-31。
②殷克东,马景灏,中国海洋经济波动监测预警技术研究[J],统计与决策,2010年第21期,P43-46。
①陈彪如、冯文伟,《经济全球化与中国金融开放》[M],上海人民出版社,2002年,P133-134。
①高铁梅,《计量经济分析方法与建模——EViews应用及实例》[M],第13章,清华大学出版社,2009年第2版,P472。
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