经济高速增长背景下我国电力消费特征的计量研究
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摘要
电能的广泛使用是当代工业文明的主要标志，电力是社会生产的重要投入品和人民生活的日用必需品。电力产业作为十分重要的基础设施产业，对国民经济发展和人民生活水平提高都起到不可或缺的重要作用。然而在电力产业的发展过程中，我国长期处于电力供应紧张状况，电力短缺不仅直接造成巨大的经济损失，也给人民生活带来诸多不便。我国也曾出现短期的电力产能过剩，导致大量固定资产闲置，给电力企业带来沉重的负担。因此，揭示我国经济高速增长下电力消费特征，把握电力消费变化的基本规律，对电力需求做出科学准确的预测，使电力供应同经济发展相适应，不仅具有重要的理论意义也具有十分重大的现实意义。
本文借鉴国内外经济学者的研究成果和符合中国实际的研究思路，依据中国电力消费的宏观和微观数据，应用经济计量方法，对中国电力消费与经济增长的关系、电力消费趋势、周期特征和工业结构升级对电力消费的影响进行了系统的分析和研究。本文主要工作和经过实证分析得出结论如下。
首先，我们用国内生产总值（GDP）增长序列代表经济增长，用全社会用电量代表电力消费，取1990年至2007年期间数据进行研究。为了消除原始数据的异方差性，我们对数据进行了取对数处理。对GDP和全社会用电量的对数序列进行了单位根检验和Johansen协整检验。为了分析电力消费与GDP之间是否存在短期格兰杰因果关系，应用误差修正模型并进行了格兰杰检验。对检验结果进行了方差分解分析验证，并通过电力消费增长与支出法GDP三项因素的格兰杰关系进一步验证了得到的结论。研究发现样本期间电力消费与GDP间存在协整关系，长期弹性系数为0.882。存在着从电力消费到GDP的短期单向格兰杰关系。即，短期内电力消费的增长会造成收入水平的提高。不存在从GDP到电力消费的短期格兰杰因果关系。这就表明，经济总量的短期增长不会造成电力消费的快速增加。从检验结果来看，1990年至2007年间，中国电力消费与经济发展之间存在协整关系，存在着较强的从电力消费到GDP的单向格兰杰因果关系。
另外，在对三次产业电力消费和经济增长对数数据进行平稳性检验后，对三次产业电力消费和经济增长对数数据进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。由于工业在国民经济中的重要地位以及工业电力消费占电力消费总量的绝对比重，本文选取了10类主要工业为代表，对工业用电对经济的影响做进一步的分析。从研究结果看出：第二和第三产业电力消费与第二和三产业经济增长都存在从产业电力消费到产业经济增长的单方向格兰杰因果关系。第二和第三产业电力消费增长与其产业GDP增长具有协整关系。从长期来看，第二产业电力消费每增长1％，产业GDP增长1.5％；第三产业电力消费每增加1％，产业GDP增长0.8％。第一产业经济增长与第一产业电力消费没有明显的格兰杰因果关系。从1990年至2007年的电力消费结构来看，第二产业电力消费比重一直在70％以上，为我国第二产业经济的快速增长起到了强有力的推动作用。由于我国人均资源短缺，应加强对第二产业电力消费效率的管理，进一步优化产业结构，提高技术水平，降低工业单位产值电耗。
高耗能工业电力消费与经济增长关系最为紧密。建材及其他非金属矿物制品业存在从电力消费到经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系，同时黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、有色金属冶炼及压延加工业与经济增长之间具有从经济增长到电力消费的单向格兰杰因果关系。非高耗能机械与电气、电子设备制造业与经济增长间存在从经济增长到电力消费的单向格兰杰因果关系。为促进经济增长，同时做好能源节约，国家应促进工业结构调整，降低黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业等高耗能产业的比例和加强工业电力消费的控制。
第三，根据国民收入总量，选取了具有代表性的上海市、广东省、陕西省、甘肃省作为研究对象，开展对典型地区的电力消费与经济增长关系以及对三次产业电力消费与经济增长的关系做较深入的比较研究。研究发现，经济发达地区电力消费与经济增长之间的关系更为密切，表现为电力增长对经济的拉动作用更为明显。经济不发达地区，电力消费同经济增长的关系无论是从总量还是从产业来看都不显著。总的来看，电力消费与经济增长关系的密切程度与产业结构和经济发展水平具有直接关系，在经济发达地区电力工业对经济增长起到了较强的促进作用，在第二和第三产业的作用更为明显。
第四，提出电力消费周期界定、特征和测度指标。进而，根据时间序列分解方法对我国电力消费数据进行了H-P滤波分解。通过分解对我国电力消费趋势特征、周期总体特征和阶段性特征进行了分析。电力消费整体特征为：从1998年开始到2007年，电力消费的增长趋势十分稳定，一直保持稳定的快速增长态势。整体呈现增长型波动，没有出现绝对值得下降；周期长度基本上为5至10年的中周期；整体波动较为剧烈，周期成分处于不稳定状态，说明电力消费增长很不稳定，波动峰位逐渐升高说明电力消费增长的稳定性继续下降；波动的扩张期小于收缩期，总体呈现短扩张型波动。掌握我国电力消费波动的上述特征，有利于运用我国电力消费的波动规律来预测电力消费增长，指导电力规划和电力建设。
第五，将电力消费的研究从总量研究深入到更微观的层次，对电力消费增长的构成进行深入研究，探究工业结构升级对电力消费增长产生的影响，从而得出我国工业化过程中工业结构升级与电力消费增长之间的数量关系。本文首次把Laspeyres分解方法运用于工业电力消费分解，探究经济增长、工业化发展和工业经济结构变化同工业电力消费之间的动态定量关系。把工业电力消费分解为产出效应、结构效应和密度效应。研究发现，在我国工业化过程中，工业电力消费增长不仅仅取决于产出效应，由于结构效应和密度效应的存在，使得工业电力需求增速远小于产出的增长。随着我国工业化的进一步发展，结构效应和密度效应将继续发挥作用，直接影响电力弹性系数和工业电力消费增长。国家可以通过调整工业内部结构和采取节能降耗技术、措施，大大减少由经济总量增长带来的电力消费增长，从而达到降低电力消费增速的目的，进而减轻电力工业对资源和环境造成的巨大压力。
第六，在对工业电力消费指标分解的基础上，本文进一步对细分行业进行了电力消费趋势的研究，得出了22个细分行业的电力消费结构效应和密度效应，发现在黑色金属冶炼及压延、电力工业等高能耗行业电力消费下降是十分明显的。根据发展经济学对工业化过程中代表产业的分类，本文对我国工业进行了相应的归类。并对三类工业的电力消费结构效应和密度效应进行了逐年分解分析。根据我国工业化所处的阶段，以及三类工业电力消费的结构效应和密度效应趋势，本文给出了在工业化过程中三类工业结构效应和密度效应对于电力消费增长所产生影响的定性判断。从趋势来看，只有第三类工业的结构效应会造成电力消费的增长。
最后，本文在对三次产业用电单耗指标分解分析后发现，第二产业在工业电力消费中不仅具有的举足轻重的作用，而且同全行业电力单耗具有高度的相关性。为了进一步准确刻画第二产业用电单耗，在对第二产业用电单耗影响因素全面分析基础上，建立了第二产业用电单耗自回归分布滞后模型，并对模型参数进行了估计。估计结果比较准确的刻画了第二产业用电单耗与各影响因素之间的数量关系。
本文比较系统全面地研究了我国电力消费总量特征、趋势和周期特征和工业结构特征。从整体上把握了我国电力消费同经济增长之间的关系，揭示了三次产业和主要工业部门电力消费与产业或部门经济增长的相互关系，比较分析了不同经济发展水平地区电力消费与经济增长之间的差异，研究了电力消费的波动特征和工业结构升级对电力消费造成的影响，建立并估计了第二产业用电单耗自回归分布滞后模型。从微观层面把握工业电力消费增长的本质，揭示电力消费增长同工业结构变化、经济总量增长以及采取节能降耗措施等因素之间的数量关系。
本文研究成果为全面把握经济高速增长下我国电力消费的特征和规律，从而为电力消费增长的预测、为电力工业进行科学规划以及对电力消费弹性系数做出合理的解释，同时对于工业化过程中政府如何实现节能降耗以及对新增投资节能效果评价，对促进电力工业与国民经济协调发展都提供了有力的经验证据和理论依据。
Electricity is the main symbol of contemporary industrial civilization， is one ofthe important inputs into social production and People's Daily necessities of life.Electric power industry as an important infrastructure industry plays an indispensablerole in the process of development of national economy and improve people's livingstandard. However in the process of the development of electric power industry， thepower supply is shortage for a long time in our country， power shortage is not onlydirectly cause huge economic losses， also bring so much inconvenience to people'slife. Too much electricity in short-term resulting in a large number of idle fixedassets， bring heavy burden to electric enterprises. Therefore， reveals the electricityconsumption characteristics with China's rapid economic growth， grasp the basicregularities of the variation of the electric power consumption， make a scientific andaccurate prediction of demand for electricity， making the power supply adapt toeconomic development， that not only has important theoretical significance and hasvery important practical significance.
This paper uses the Chinese and foreign economic scholar's research results andresearch train of thought according with China's actual. According to the micro andmacro data of China's electric power consumption， with econometric method， hasstudied on the relationship between the electricity consumption and economic growthin China， electricity consumption periodic characteristics and the effect onelectricity consumption from the industrial structure upgrade. This article throughempirical analysis mainly the following conclusions:
First， we use a sequence of gross domestic product (GDP) represents theeconomic growth， The whole society power consumption represents electricityconsumption， collect data during1990to2007. In order to eliminate theheteroscedasticity of the original data， take the logarithm of the data.Testlogarithmic sequence of GDP and power consumption with unit root test andJohansen cointegration test. To analyze whether there is a short-term grangercausality between electricity consumption and GDP relationship，using the ECM andgranger test. The result is verified by using variance decomposition analysis method.Applies granger relationship test between Power consumption growth and threefactors of expenditure method of GDP verify the conclusion again.Studies have foundthat during the sample there is a cointegration relationship between electricityconsumption and GDP， long-term elasticity coefficient is0.882. There is aunidirectional granger from electricity consumption to GDP in the short termrelationship. That is， the power consumption growth in the short term can lead to theimprovement of income level. There is no short-term granger causality from GDP topower consumption， it is showed that the amount of short-term economic growthwill not result in a rapid increase of electricity consumption. From the point ofinspection results， from1990to2007， there is a cointegration relationship betweenelectricity consumption and economic development，there is a strong from electricityconsumption to one-way granger causality of GDP in China.
In addition， after the logarithmic data stationarity test on electricityconsumption of three industries and economic growth， test three industrieslogarithmic data on electricity consumption and economic growth with grangercausality test. Due to the important position of industry in the national economy andindustrial electricity consumption accounted for absolute proportion of totalelectricity consumption， we selected the10types of main industry as therepresentative，the industrial impact on the economy for further analysis. The second and third industry power consumption growth and its GDP growth haveco-integration relationship. In the long run， the second industry whenever theelectricity consumption increases by1%， the industry GDP growth of1.5%; Thethird industry every1%increase in electricity consumption， industry GDP growth of0.8%. The first industrial economic growth and the industrial electricity consumptionhad no obvious granger causality. From1990to2007， the electric powerconsumption structure， the second industry has been70%of the total powerconsumption of the above， for the second industry in our country's rapid economicgrowth has played a powerful role in promoting. Due to the shortage of resources percapita in China， should strengthen the management of the second industry powerconsumption efficiency， further optimize the industrial structure， improve thetechnical level， reduce the industrial power consumption per unit of output.
Energy-intensive industries has the most closely relationship between electricityconsumption and economic growth. There is one-way granger causality in buildingmaterials and other non-metallic mineral products from electricity consumption toeconomic growth. The high-energy mechanical and electrical， electronic equipmentmanufacturing industry and economic growth from economic growth to electricityconsumption between the one-way granger causality. In order to promote economicgrowth， at the same time， completes the energy conservation， countries should dofor industrial structure adjustment， reduce the black metal smelting and rollingprocessing industry， etc. The proportion of energy-intensive industries andstrengthen the industrial power consumption control.
Third， according to the total national income， selected the representative inShanghai， Guangdong province， Shanxi province， Gansu province as the researchobject， carry out the typical region of the relationship between electricityconsumption and economic growth， and three industry the relationship betweenelectricity consumption and economic growth of in-depth comparative study. Studieshave found that economic developed area has more closely the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth， performance for the electric powerpull function on the economic growth is more apparent. Economicallyunderdeveloped areas， electricity consumption relationship with economic growthboth in terms of the total from the industries are not significant. In general， thedegree of close relationship between electricity consumption and economic growthhas a direct relationship between the industrial structure and economic developmentlevel， electric power industry in the economic developed areas to play a strong rolein promoting economic growth， in the role of the second and the third industry ismore obvious.
Fourth， the definition， characteristics and electricity consumption cyclemeasure is put forward on the basis of our country electric power consumption datafor the data stationarity test. Then， according to the time series decompositionmethod to our country electric power consumption data cycle decomposition.Through the decomposition of the general characteristics of China's electricityconsumption cycle and phases are analyzed. Electricity consumption overallcharacteristics as follows: present the growth， not definitely worth decline;Basically， cycle length for5to10years in the cycle; Overall volatility is relativelysevere， periodic components is in unstable condition， electricity consumptiongrowth is not very stable， wave peak position gradually rise shows that the stabilityof the electric power consumption growth continues to fall; Volatility expansion thansystolic， expansive general fluctuations. Master the characteristics of electricityconsumption fluctuations in our country， how to use the electricity consumptionvariation rule to predict the power consumption growth situation， guide the electricpower planning and power construction.
Fifth， total electricity consumption research from research into the more microlevel， the power consumption growth in the composition of the in-depth research，to explore the effects of industrial structure upgrade for the electric power consumption growth，so in the process of industrialization in China and upgrading ofindustrial structure of power quantitative relation between consumption growth. Thispaper first apply the Laspeyres decomposition method in industrial electricityconsumption decomposition， to explore the economic growth， deepening ofindustrialization and industrial economic structure change with dynamic quantitativerelations between the industrial electricity consumption. The industrial electricityconsumption is decomposed into output effect， structure effect and the effect of thedensity. Studies have found that in the process of industrialization in our country，industrial electricity consumption growth depends not only on output effect， butbecause of the structure effect and density effect， makes industrial output growth inpower demand growth rate is far less than that. Along with the further development ofindustrialization， structure effect and density effect will continue to play a role，directly affect the electricity elasticity coefficient and industrial electricityconsumption growth. The government can through adjusting industrial structure andenergy saving technology and measures are taken， greatly reducing the powerconsumption growth， economy growth so as to achieve the aim of reducingelectricity consumption growth， and thus reduce the electric power industry thetremendous pressure on resources and environment.
Sixth， based on industrial electricity consumption index decomposition， thispaper further subdivided sectors for the electric power consumption trend of theresearch， found22subdivision industry effect and the effect of the density， powerconsumption structure found in black metal smelting and rolling， power industry，such as high energy consumption industries electricity consumption is very obvious.According to development economics for industrial process on behalf of the industryclassification， this paper classified the corresponding industry in our country. Andthe electricity consumption of three industrial structure effect and the density effectare analyzed in break down year by year. According to our country's stage of industrialization， and the three industrial structure effect and density effect trend ofelectricity consumption， we give the effect of three kinds of industrial structure inthe industrial process and the effect of the density for electricity consumption growthwill affect the qualitative judgment. Only the third industrial structure effect willcause growth in electricity consumption.
Finally， we electricity consumption index of three industry decompositionanalysis， on the basis of the second industry in the industrial electricity consumptionnot only has the important role of， with the industry power consumption and has ahigh degree of correlation. In order to further describe the second industrial electricityconsumption accurately， on the second industry power consumption influencefactors based on the comprehensive analysis， the second industry powerconsumption measurement model is established， and the parameters of the modelwere estimated. Estimate result more accurate depiction of the second industrialelectricity consumption and the relations between the number of all the factors.
In this paper， comparison of power consumption in China were studiedsystematically， cycle characteristics and the industrial structure. Overall we graspthe relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in China，reveals the three industry electricity consumption and the main industry sectors andindustries or sectors with the relationship between economic growth and thecomparative analysis of different economic development level regional distinctionbetween electricity consumption and economic growth， study the fluctuationcharacteristics of the electricity consumption and industry structure upgrade on theeffects of power consumption. From the micro-level， to grasp the essence ofindustrial electricity consumption growth， reveal the power consumption growth andindustrial structure change， economy growth and the quantity relation between thefactors such as energy saving measures.
Under this article research achievements to comprehensively grasp the high economic growth characteristics and regularity of electric power consumption in ourcountry， thus for the prediction of power consumption growth， the scientificplanning for electric power industry and make reasonable explanation on electricityconsumption elasticity coefficient， at the same time for the government how torealize saving energy and reducing consumption in industrialized process and energysaving effect of new investment evaluation， to promote coordinated development ofpower industry and the national economy provides strong empirical evidence andtheoretical basis.
本文借鉴国内外经济学者的研究成果和符合中国实际的研究思路，依据中国电力消费的宏观和微观数据，应用经济计量方法，对中国电力消费与经济增长的关系、电力消费趋势、周期特征和工业结构升级对电力消费的影响进行了系统的分析和研究。本文主要工作和经过实证分析得出结论如下。
首先，我们用国内生产总值（GDP）增长序列代表经济增长，用全社会用电量代表电力消费，取1990年至2007年期间数据进行研究。为了消除原始数据的异方差性，我们对数据进行了取对数处理。对GDP和全社会用电量的对数序列进行了单位根检验和Johansen协整检验。为了分析电力消费与GDP之间是否存在短期格兰杰因果关系，应用误差修正模型并进行了格兰杰检验。对检验结果进行了方差分解分析验证，并通过电力消费增长与支出法GDP三项因素的格兰杰关系进一步验证了得到的结论。研究发现样本期间电力消费与GDP间存在协整关系，长期弹性系数为0.882。存在着从电力消费到GDP的短期单向格兰杰关系。即，短期内电力消费的增长会造成收入水平的提高。不存在从GDP到电力消费的短期格兰杰因果关系。这就表明，经济总量的短期增长不会造成电力消费的快速增加。从检验结果来看，1990年至2007年间，中国电力消费与经济发展之间存在协整关系，存在着较强的从电力消费到GDP的单向格兰杰因果关系。
另外，在对三次产业电力消费和经济增长对数数据进行平稳性检验后，对三次产业电力消费和经济增长对数数据进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。由于工业在国民经济中的重要地位以及工业电力消费占电力消费总量的绝对比重，本文选取了10类主要工业为代表，对工业用电对经济的影响做进一步的分析。从研究结果看出：第二和第三产业电力消费与第二和三产业经济增长都存在从产业电力消费到产业经济增长的单方向格兰杰因果关系。第二和第三产业电力消费增长与其产业GDP增长具有协整关系。从长期来看，第二产业电力消费每增长1％，产业GDP增长1.5％；第三产业电力消费每增加1％，产业GDP增长0.8％。第一产业经济增长与第一产业电力消费没有明显的格兰杰因果关系。从1990年至2007年的电力消费结构来看，第二产业电力消费比重一直在70％以上，为我国第二产业经济的快速增长起到了强有力的推动作用。由于我国人均资源短缺，应加强对第二产业电力消费效率的管理，进一步优化产业结构，提高技术水平，降低工业单位产值电耗。
高耗能工业电力消费与经济增长关系最为紧密。建材及其他非金属矿物制品业存在从电力消费到经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系，同时黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、有色金属冶炼及压延加工业与经济增长之间具有从经济增长到电力消费的单向格兰杰因果关系。非高耗能机械与电气、电子设备制造业与经济增长间存在从经济增长到电力消费的单向格兰杰因果关系。为促进经济增长，同时做好能源节约，国家应促进工业结构调整，降低黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业等高耗能产业的比例和加强工业电力消费的控制。
第三，根据国民收入总量，选取了具有代表性的上海市、广东省、陕西省、甘肃省作为研究对象，开展对典型地区的电力消费与经济增长关系以及对三次产业电力消费与经济增长的关系做较深入的比较研究。研究发现，经济发达地区电力消费与经济增长之间的关系更为密切，表现为电力增长对经济的拉动作用更为明显。经济不发达地区，电力消费同经济增长的关系无论是从总量还是从产业来看都不显著。总的来看，电力消费与经济增长关系的密切程度与产业结构和经济发展水平具有直接关系，在经济发达地区电力工业对经济增长起到了较强的促进作用，在第二和第三产业的作用更为明显。
第四，提出电力消费周期界定、特征和测度指标。进而，根据时间序列分解方法对我国电力消费数据进行了H-P滤波分解。通过分解对我国电力消费趋势特征、周期总体特征和阶段性特征进行了分析。电力消费整体特征为：从1998年开始到2007年，电力消费的增长趋势十分稳定，一直保持稳定的快速增长态势。整体呈现增长型波动，没有出现绝对值得下降；周期长度基本上为5至10年的中周期；整体波动较为剧烈，周期成分处于不稳定状态，说明电力消费增长很不稳定，波动峰位逐渐升高说明电力消费增长的稳定性继续下降；波动的扩张期小于收缩期，总体呈现短扩张型波动。掌握我国电力消费波动的上述特征，有利于运用我国电力消费的波动规律来预测电力消费增长，指导电力规划和电力建设。
第五，将电力消费的研究从总量研究深入到更微观的层次，对电力消费增长的构成进行深入研究，探究工业结构升级对电力消费增长产生的影响，从而得出我国工业化过程中工业结构升级与电力消费增长之间的数量关系。本文首次把Laspeyres分解方法运用于工业电力消费分解，探究经济增长、工业化发展和工业经济结构变化同工业电力消费之间的动态定量关系。把工业电力消费分解为产出效应、结构效应和密度效应。研究发现，在我国工业化过程中，工业电力消费增长不仅仅取决于产出效应，由于结构效应和密度效应的存在，使得工业电力需求增速远小于产出的增长。随着我国工业化的进一步发展，结构效应和密度效应将继续发挥作用，直接影响电力弹性系数和工业电力消费增长。国家可以通过调整工业内部结构和采取节能降耗技术、措施，大大减少由经济总量增长带来的电力消费增长，从而达到降低电力消费增速的目的，进而减轻电力工业对资源和环境造成的巨大压力。
第六，在对工业电力消费指标分解的基础上，本文进一步对细分行业进行了电力消费趋势的研究，得出了22个细分行业的电力消费结构效应和密度效应，发现在黑色金属冶炼及压延、电力工业等高能耗行业电力消费下降是十分明显的。根据发展经济学对工业化过程中代表产业的分类，本文对我国工业进行了相应的归类。并对三类工业的电力消费结构效应和密度效应进行了逐年分解分析。根据我国工业化所处的阶段，以及三类工业电力消费的结构效应和密度效应趋势，本文给出了在工业化过程中三类工业结构效应和密度效应对于电力消费增长所产生影响的定性判断。从趋势来看，只有第三类工业的结构效应会造成电力消费的增长。
最后，本文在对三次产业用电单耗指标分解分析后发现，第二产业在工业电力消费中不仅具有的举足轻重的作用，而且同全行业电力单耗具有高度的相关性。为了进一步准确刻画第二产业用电单耗，在对第二产业用电单耗影响因素全面分析基础上，建立了第二产业用电单耗自回归分布滞后模型，并对模型参数进行了估计。估计结果比较准确的刻画了第二产业用电单耗与各影响因素之间的数量关系。
本文比较系统全面地研究了我国电力消费总量特征、趋势和周期特征和工业结构特征。从整体上把握了我国电力消费同经济增长之间的关系，揭示了三次产业和主要工业部门电力消费与产业或部门经济增长的相互关系，比较分析了不同经济发展水平地区电力消费与经济增长之间的差异，研究了电力消费的波动特征和工业结构升级对电力消费造成的影响，建立并估计了第二产业用电单耗自回归分布滞后模型。从微观层面把握工业电力消费增长的本质，揭示电力消费增长同工业结构变化、经济总量增长以及采取节能降耗措施等因素之间的数量关系。
本文研究成果为全面把握经济高速增长下我国电力消费的特征和规律，从而为电力消费增长的预测、为电力工业进行科学规划以及对电力消费弹性系数做出合理的解释，同时对于工业化过程中政府如何实现节能降耗以及对新增投资节能效果评价，对促进电力工业与国民经济协调发展都提供了有力的经验证据和理论依据。
Electricity is the main symbol of contemporary industrial civilization， is one ofthe important inputs into social production and People's Daily necessities of life.Electric power industry as an important infrastructure industry plays an indispensablerole in the process of development of national economy and improve people's livingstandard. However in the process of the development of electric power industry， thepower supply is shortage for a long time in our country， power shortage is not onlydirectly cause huge economic losses， also bring so much inconvenience to people'slife. Too much electricity in short-term resulting in a large number of idle fixedassets， bring heavy burden to electric enterprises. Therefore， reveals the electricityconsumption characteristics with China's rapid economic growth， grasp the basicregularities of the variation of the electric power consumption， make a scientific andaccurate prediction of demand for electricity， making the power supply adapt toeconomic development， that not only has important theoretical significance and hasvery important practical significance.
This paper uses the Chinese and foreign economic scholar's research results andresearch train of thought according with China's actual. According to the micro andmacro data of China's electric power consumption， with econometric method， hasstudied on the relationship between the electricity consumption and economic growthin China， electricity consumption periodic characteristics and the effect onelectricity consumption from the industrial structure upgrade. This article throughempirical analysis mainly the following conclusions:
First， we use a sequence of gross domestic product (GDP) represents theeconomic growth， The whole society power consumption represents electricityconsumption， collect data during1990to2007. In order to eliminate theheteroscedasticity of the original data， take the logarithm of the data.Testlogarithmic sequence of GDP and power consumption with unit root test andJohansen cointegration test. To analyze whether there is a short-term grangercausality between electricity consumption and GDP relationship，using the ECM andgranger test. The result is verified by using variance decomposition analysis method.Applies granger relationship test between Power consumption growth and threefactors of expenditure method of GDP verify the conclusion again.Studies have foundthat during the sample there is a cointegration relationship between electricityconsumption and GDP， long-term elasticity coefficient is0.882. There is aunidirectional granger from electricity consumption to GDP in the short termrelationship. That is， the power consumption growth in the short term can lead to theimprovement of income level. There is no short-term granger causality from GDP topower consumption， it is showed that the amount of short-term economic growthwill not result in a rapid increase of electricity consumption. From the point ofinspection results， from1990to2007， there is a cointegration relationship betweenelectricity consumption and economic development，there is a strong from electricityconsumption to one-way granger causality of GDP in China.
In addition， after the logarithmic data stationarity test on electricityconsumption of three industries and economic growth， test three industrieslogarithmic data on electricity consumption and economic growth with grangercausality test. Due to the important position of industry in the national economy andindustrial electricity consumption accounted for absolute proportion of totalelectricity consumption， we selected the10types of main industry as therepresentative，the industrial impact on the economy for further analysis. The second and third industry power consumption growth and its GDP growth haveco-integration relationship. In the long run， the second industry whenever theelectricity consumption increases by1%， the industry GDP growth of1.5%; Thethird industry every1%increase in electricity consumption， industry GDP growth of0.8%. The first industrial economic growth and the industrial electricity consumptionhad no obvious granger causality. From1990to2007， the electric powerconsumption structure， the second industry has been70%of the total powerconsumption of the above， for the second industry in our country's rapid economicgrowth has played a powerful role in promoting. Due to the shortage of resources percapita in China， should strengthen the management of the second industry powerconsumption efficiency， further optimize the industrial structure， improve thetechnical level， reduce the industrial power consumption per unit of output.
Energy-intensive industries has the most closely relationship between electricityconsumption and economic growth. There is one-way granger causality in buildingmaterials and other non-metallic mineral products from electricity consumption toeconomic growth. The high-energy mechanical and electrical， electronic equipmentmanufacturing industry and economic growth from economic growth to electricityconsumption between the one-way granger causality. In order to promote economicgrowth， at the same time， completes the energy conservation， countries should dofor industrial structure adjustment， reduce the black metal smelting and rollingprocessing industry， etc. The proportion of energy-intensive industries andstrengthen the industrial power consumption control.
Third， according to the total national income， selected the representative inShanghai， Guangdong province， Shanxi province， Gansu province as the researchobject， carry out the typical region of the relationship between electricityconsumption and economic growth， and three industry the relationship betweenelectricity consumption and economic growth of in-depth comparative study. Studieshave found that economic developed area has more closely the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth， performance for the electric powerpull function on the economic growth is more apparent. Economicallyunderdeveloped areas， electricity consumption relationship with economic growthboth in terms of the total from the industries are not significant. In general， thedegree of close relationship between electricity consumption and economic growthhas a direct relationship between the industrial structure and economic developmentlevel， electric power industry in the economic developed areas to play a strong rolein promoting economic growth， in the role of the second and the third industry ismore obvious.
Fourth， the definition， characteristics and electricity consumption cyclemeasure is put forward on the basis of our country electric power consumption datafor the data stationarity test. Then， according to the time series decompositionmethod to our country electric power consumption data cycle decomposition.Through the decomposition of the general characteristics of China's electricityconsumption cycle and phases are analyzed. Electricity consumption overallcharacteristics as follows: present the growth， not definitely worth decline;Basically， cycle length for5to10years in the cycle; Overall volatility is relativelysevere， periodic components is in unstable condition， electricity consumptiongrowth is not very stable， wave peak position gradually rise shows that the stabilityof the electric power consumption growth continues to fall; Volatility expansion thansystolic， expansive general fluctuations. Master the characteristics of electricityconsumption fluctuations in our country， how to use the electricity consumptionvariation rule to predict the power consumption growth situation， guide the electricpower planning and power construction.
Fifth， total electricity consumption research from research into the more microlevel， the power consumption growth in the composition of the in-depth research，to explore the effects of industrial structure upgrade for the electric power consumption growth，so in the process of industrialization in China and upgrading ofindustrial structure of power quantitative relation between consumption growth. Thispaper first apply the Laspeyres decomposition method in industrial electricityconsumption decomposition， to explore the economic growth， deepening ofindustrialization and industrial economic structure change with dynamic quantitativerelations between the industrial electricity consumption. The industrial electricityconsumption is decomposed into output effect， structure effect and the effect of thedensity. Studies have found that in the process of industrialization in our country，industrial electricity consumption growth depends not only on output effect， butbecause of the structure effect and density effect， makes industrial output growth inpower demand growth rate is far less than that. Along with the further development ofindustrialization， structure effect and density effect will continue to play a role，directly affect the electricity elasticity coefficient and industrial electricityconsumption growth. The government can through adjusting industrial structure andenergy saving technology and measures are taken， greatly reducing the powerconsumption growth， economy growth so as to achieve the aim of reducingelectricity consumption growth， and thus reduce the electric power industry thetremendous pressure on resources and environment.
Sixth， based on industrial electricity consumption index decomposition， thispaper further subdivided sectors for the electric power consumption trend of theresearch， found22subdivision industry effect and the effect of the density， powerconsumption structure found in black metal smelting and rolling， power industry，such as high energy consumption industries electricity consumption is very obvious.According to development economics for industrial process on behalf of the industryclassification， this paper classified the corresponding industry in our country. Andthe electricity consumption of three industrial structure effect and the density effectare analyzed in break down year by year. According to our country's stage of industrialization， and the three industrial structure effect and density effect trend ofelectricity consumption， we give the effect of three kinds of industrial structure inthe industrial process and the effect of the density for electricity consumption growthwill affect the qualitative judgment. Only the third industrial structure effect willcause growth in electricity consumption.
Finally， we electricity consumption index of three industry decompositionanalysis， on the basis of the second industry in the industrial electricity consumptionnot only has the important role of， with the industry power consumption and has ahigh degree of correlation. In order to further describe the second industrial electricityconsumption accurately， on the second industry power consumption influencefactors based on the comprehensive analysis， the second industry powerconsumption measurement model is established， and the parameters of the modelwere estimated. Estimate result more accurate depiction of the second industrialelectricity consumption and the relations between the number of all the factors.
In this paper， comparison of power consumption in China were studiedsystematically， cycle characteristics and the industrial structure. Overall we graspthe relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in China，reveals the three industry electricity consumption and the main industry sectors andindustries or sectors with the relationship between economic growth and thecomparative analysis of different economic development level regional distinctionbetween electricity consumption and economic growth， study the fluctuationcharacteristics of the electricity consumption and industry structure upgrade on theeffects of power consumption. From the micro-level， to grasp the essence ofindustrial electricity consumption growth， reveal the power consumption growth andindustrial structure change， economy growth and the quantity relation between thefactors such as energy saving measures.
Under this article research achievements to comprehensively grasp the high economic growth characteristics and regularity of electric power consumption in ourcountry， thus for the prediction of power consumption growth， the scientificplanning for electric power industry and make reasonable explanation on electricityconsumption elasticity coefficient， at the same time for the government how torealize saving energy and reducing consumption in industrialized process and energysaving effect of new investment evaluation， to promote coordinated development ofpower industry and the national economy provides strong empirical evidence andtheoretical basis.
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