云南电网物理脆弱性分析与地质灾害风险研究
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摘要
电力系统大多直接暴露在自然条件下,受环境因素影响较大。我国地质灾害频发,各类地质灾害的发生直接影响着电力系统的安全运行,严重的会导致电网崩溃和大面积停电事故,更有甚者将威胁到人民的生命财产和社会的稳定。加强地质灾害的监测预警,减轻和防止其灾变影响,对电力系统的安全、稳定运行起着积极的作用,有利于降低地质灾害对国家、集体、个人造成的经济和物质损失。因此,对于地质灾害监测预警及其防控体系的研究,具有重要意义。
地质灾害监测预警研究是当前国内外灾害研究领域的热点课题。在电力系统领域,地质灾害监测预警系统研究引起了广泛的重视,并已取得了较多成果。但由于自然灾害的发生及其对电网系统的致灾过程复杂,目前人们对于致灾过程机理、耦合灾变作用和灾变动力演化规律等,还需深入而系统地研究。
云南是典型的山地环境,全省斜坡高陡、河谷深切、地形起伏、高差悬殊,特殊的地理环境使得滑坡、泥石流和地震灾害频发。相对于其他地域,研究云南电网的物理脆弱性、安全风险评估、预警应急管理控制体系能达到特殊性和一般性的统一。选取常见的滑坡、泥石流、地震等地质灾害为研究的环境,针对电网系统承灾体的承灾力、灾变耦合动力演化规律,区域内地质灾害的致灾特性、易灾性分布规律、风险评价模型及风险区划、预警模型等方面,建立完善的监测预警系统,提供风险管理控制措施,探讨电力系统应对地质灾害的安全科学原理与防灾减灾科学理论。主要做了如下4个方面的研究：
(1)云南电网面临的主要地质灾害特点以及致灾机理。分析了云南电网系统面临的主要地质灾害种类,统计分析各类地质灾害的分布特点和造成电网损失的情况；结合致灾机理、灾变动力演化及统计资料,发现区域灾害发生及其程度的时间分布和空间分布规律,确定区域易灾性分布规律。
(2)地质灾害致灾行为动态演化规律。基于灾害能量场作用下,探究灾害的动态演化规律、灾害与电网承灾体之间耦合连锁反应规律、多级效应的动态演化规律；研究灾变动力模型,建立滑坡、泥石流和地震等致灾行为的动态演化模型及仿真分析,从而提供预报预警依据；根据典型的电网承灾体破损规律,建立数学模型及仿真分析；划分电网承灾体承灾能力等级,构建承灾能力模型,评估区域不同尺度、不同承灾体对象的综合承灾能力,确定区域电力系统的承灾体易损性特征及耐地质灾害冲击特性。
(3)云南电网地质灾害风险评估。根据地质灾害和电力系统特性,以及监测数据,结合区域的易灾性与区域承灾体易损性的关系而构成区域电力系统的灾变风险,研究易灾性与易损性耦合关系模型,构建灾变风险评估模型；讨论区域电网系统灾变风险分级标准,预测预报电网遭受自然灾害破坏的风险大小和电网系统中长尺度灾变风险分布,分析诱发因子引起的灾变风险量级分布变化规律；基于云南电网现有的监测预警系统,重点研究了云南电网地质灾害风险评估。本部分的创新点之一,提出了地质灾害计权点密度的概念,并建立了矩阵计算模型,结合云南各地市州的具体情况给出了计算实例。本部分的创新点之二,在单条输电线路灾害间接经济损失的计算中,提出考虑经济密度的比例系数和人口密度的比例系数,克服了惯用的根据间接损失与直接损失的比值来笼统定义灾害间接经济损失那种粗糙化与简单化的处理方案。
(4)电网地质灾害监测预警系统和电网地质灾害灾变风险管理控制研究。建立灾变风险管理策略模型设计原则与方法、模型,根据监测及动态灾变风险评估结果,提供灾变风险应对辅助决策支持及相应的防范措施,构建了区域电网风险管理控制体系,建立超前预报预警和应急响应机制,形成反馈控制系统。本部分的创新点在于将RPD决策模型和信息熵评价决策模型引入到电网的应急指挥决策领域,并以此为依据形成电网系统应急决策体系。
Most of electric power system is seriously influenced by environmental factors for its directly exposure in natural conditions. There are lots of natural disasters in China. The incidence of various types of natural disasters is directly threatening the safe operation of grid system, which will cause serious destructions and many blackouts troubles, what's more, it even affects the normal production, life and social stability. And it has positive effects on safe and stable operation of grid system while enhancing the monitoring and warning system in order to reduce the influence of natural disasters. It is also conductive to reduce the economic and material losses both of collectives and individuals. Therefore, it has a very important theoretical significance to research on monitoring and warning of natural disasters, which can generate significant economic benefits.
It is a hot topic to research on monitoring and warning of natural disasters in domestic and international disaster in current research field. In the field of grid system, it attracts more and more domestic scholars' attentions to research on monitoring and warning system of natural disasters, which has produced lots of achievements. However, for the occurrence of natural disasters and the hazard process of grid system are complicated, there are more researches on the mechanism of hazard process, cataclysm dynamic evolution and coupling catastrophic effect.
In complex terrain of Yunnan province, there are a lot of geological disasters, such as freezing rain and snow, landslide, earthquake, wildfire. All of these disasters have prominent damage on grid system. Compared with other regions, it can achieve the unity of particularity and generality by researching on physical vulnerability, safety risk assessment, early warning and emergency management and control system in Yunnan Gird. The landslides, mudslides, earthquakes and other geological disasters have been selected as research environments. It was studied that includes the hazard characteristics of the geological disasters, distribution law of disaster vulnerability, disaster bearing force of grid system, cataclysm coupled dynamic evolution, risk assessment model and risk zoning and warning model and so on. The perfect monitoring and warning system has been established and the risk and control measure has been proposed to investigate scientific theory of grid system dealing with geological disasters. The following four aspects are mainly included in the paper:
(1) Research on characteristics of geological disasters and disaster-causing mechanism of Yunnan Grid. It analyzes the main types of geological disasters, the distribution characteristics and the losses of various geological disasters in Yunnan Grid. It also finds the time and space distribution of the occurrences and the degree of regional disaster. Then, combined with the formation mechanism, catastrophic dynamical evolution and statistics, it determines the distribution law of disaster vulnerability in regions.
(2) Research on dynamic evolution of hazard behavior in geological disasters. It is studied that includes the dynamic evolution, coupling knock-on effect law of disasters and grid hazard bearing body and dynamic evolution of the multi-level effects based on disaster energy field. According to catastrophic dynamic model, it establishes dynamic evolution model and simulation analysis technology of landslides, mudslides and earthquakes and other hazard behaviors. It considers the law of destruction or damage of the typical grid hazard bearing body. After establishing mathematical model and simulation analysis, it divides the disaster bearing capacity of grid hazard bearing body into many grades and establishes the disaster bearing capacity model to assess integrated disaster bearing capacity of different scales and different hazard bearing bodies. It also determines characteristics of vulnerability and resistance to impact of geological disasters of disaster bearing body of regional power grid.
(3) Research on risk assessment of grid geological disasters. It establishes catastrophe risk of regional grid system and studies coupling relationship model of disaster vulnerability and hazard vulnerability and establishes the catastrophe risk assessment model according to characteristics of disasters and grid system, monitoring data and the relationship between disaster vulnerability and hazard vulnerability of disaster bearing body. It discusses catastrophe risk classification standard of regional grid system and forecasts risk and the long-scale catastrophe risk distribution in grid system attracted by natural disasters. It also analyzes the magnitude distribution change law of catastrophic risks resulted from precipitating factors. It mainly studies risk assessment of grid geological disasters according to the monitoring and warning system of Yunnan Grid. The first innovation of this part lies in that it puts forward the concept of weighted point density in geological disasters, establishes the matrix calculation model, and gives the calculation examples combined with the specific circumstances in Yunnan. The other innovation lies in that it considers the coefficient of proportionality and population density and economic density in the calculation of indirect economic loss of a single transmission line in a disaster, which overcomes the simplistic and rough solution to define indirect economic loss in a disaster according to the ratio of indirect loss and direct loss.
(4) Research on monitoring and warning system and catastrophe risk management control of grid geological disasters. It establishes the rules, methods and models of catastrophic emergency decision-making analysis. And it proposes the auxiliary decision support of catastrophe risk according to the result of monitoring and dynamic catastrophe risk assessment to guide the appropriate precautions of staff timely. It also establishes risk management and control system of regional grid. Then it establishes advanced forecasting and warning and emergency response mechanism and forms feedback control system. The innovation of the this part lies in that Recognition-primed Decision Model (RPD) and the evaluation decision model of information entropy are introduced into the field of emergency command decision-making in power grid. And based on above, emergency decision-making system is formed for power system.
地质灾害监测预警研究是当前国内外灾害研究领域的热点课题。在电力系统领域,地质灾害监测预警系统研究引起了广泛的重视,并已取得了较多成果。但由于自然灾害的发生及其对电网系统的致灾过程复杂,目前人们对于致灾过程机理、耦合灾变作用和灾变动力演化规律等,还需深入而系统地研究。
云南是典型的山地环境,全省斜坡高陡、河谷深切、地形起伏、高差悬殊,特殊的地理环境使得滑坡、泥石流和地震灾害频发。相对于其他地域,研究云南电网的物理脆弱性、安全风险评估、预警应急管理控制体系能达到特殊性和一般性的统一。选取常见的滑坡、泥石流、地震等地质灾害为研究的环境,针对电网系统承灾体的承灾力、灾变耦合动力演化规律,区域内地质灾害的致灾特性、易灾性分布规律、风险评价模型及风险区划、预警模型等方面,建立完善的监测预警系统,提供风险管理控制措施,探讨电力系统应对地质灾害的安全科学原理与防灾减灾科学理论。主要做了如下4个方面的研究：
(1)云南电网面临的主要地质灾害特点以及致灾机理。分析了云南电网系统面临的主要地质灾害种类,统计分析各类地质灾害的分布特点和造成电网损失的情况；结合致灾机理、灾变动力演化及统计资料,发现区域灾害发生及其程度的时间分布和空间分布规律,确定区域易灾性分布规律。
(2)地质灾害致灾行为动态演化规律。基于灾害能量场作用下,探究灾害的动态演化规律、灾害与电网承灾体之间耦合连锁反应规律、多级效应的动态演化规律；研究灾变动力模型,建立滑坡、泥石流和地震等致灾行为的动态演化模型及仿真分析,从而提供预报预警依据；根据典型的电网承灾体破损规律,建立数学模型及仿真分析；划分电网承灾体承灾能力等级,构建承灾能力模型,评估区域不同尺度、不同承灾体对象的综合承灾能力,确定区域电力系统的承灾体易损性特征及耐地质灾害冲击特性。
(3)云南电网地质灾害风险评估。根据地质灾害和电力系统特性,以及监测数据,结合区域的易灾性与区域承灾体易损性的关系而构成区域电力系统的灾变风险,研究易灾性与易损性耦合关系模型,构建灾变风险评估模型；讨论区域电网系统灾变风险分级标准,预测预报电网遭受自然灾害破坏的风险大小和电网系统中长尺度灾变风险分布,分析诱发因子引起的灾变风险量级分布变化规律；基于云南电网现有的监测预警系统,重点研究了云南电网地质灾害风险评估。本部分的创新点之一,提出了地质灾害计权点密度的概念,并建立了矩阵计算模型,结合云南各地市州的具体情况给出了计算实例。本部分的创新点之二,在单条输电线路灾害间接经济损失的计算中,提出考虑经济密度的比例系数和人口密度的比例系数,克服了惯用的根据间接损失与直接损失的比值来笼统定义灾害间接经济损失那种粗糙化与简单化的处理方案。
(4)电网地质灾害监测预警系统和电网地质灾害灾变风险管理控制研究。建立灾变风险管理策略模型设计原则与方法、模型,根据监测及动态灾变风险评估结果,提供灾变风险应对辅助决策支持及相应的防范措施,构建了区域电网风险管理控制体系,建立超前预报预警和应急响应机制,形成反馈控制系统。本部分的创新点在于将RPD决策模型和信息熵评价决策模型引入到电网的应急指挥决策领域,并以此为依据形成电网系统应急决策体系。
Most of electric power system is seriously influenced by environmental factors for its directly exposure in natural conditions. There are lots of natural disasters in China. The incidence of various types of natural disasters is directly threatening the safe operation of grid system, which will cause serious destructions and many blackouts troubles, what's more, it even affects the normal production, life and social stability. And it has positive effects on safe and stable operation of grid system while enhancing the monitoring and warning system in order to reduce the influence of natural disasters. It is also conductive to reduce the economic and material losses both of collectives and individuals. Therefore, it has a very important theoretical significance to research on monitoring and warning of natural disasters, which can generate significant economic benefits.
It is a hot topic to research on monitoring and warning of natural disasters in domestic and international disaster in current research field. In the field of grid system, it attracts more and more domestic scholars' attentions to research on monitoring and warning system of natural disasters, which has produced lots of achievements. However, for the occurrence of natural disasters and the hazard process of grid system are complicated, there are more researches on the mechanism of hazard process, cataclysm dynamic evolution and coupling catastrophic effect.
In complex terrain of Yunnan province, there are a lot of geological disasters, such as freezing rain and snow, landslide, earthquake, wildfire. All of these disasters have prominent damage on grid system. Compared with other regions, it can achieve the unity of particularity and generality by researching on physical vulnerability, safety risk assessment, early warning and emergency management and control system in Yunnan Gird. The landslides, mudslides, earthquakes and other geological disasters have been selected as research environments. It was studied that includes the hazard characteristics of the geological disasters, distribution law of disaster vulnerability, disaster bearing force of grid system, cataclysm coupled dynamic evolution, risk assessment model and risk zoning and warning model and so on. The perfect monitoring and warning system has been established and the risk and control measure has been proposed to investigate scientific theory of grid system dealing with geological disasters. The following four aspects are mainly included in the paper:
(1) Research on characteristics of geological disasters and disaster-causing mechanism of Yunnan Grid. It analyzes the main types of geological disasters, the distribution characteristics and the losses of various geological disasters in Yunnan Grid. It also finds the time and space distribution of the occurrences and the degree of regional disaster. Then, combined with the formation mechanism, catastrophic dynamical evolution and statistics, it determines the distribution law of disaster vulnerability in regions.
(2) Research on dynamic evolution of hazard behavior in geological disasters. It is studied that includes the dynamic evolution, coupling knock-on effect law of disasters and grid hazard bearing body and dynamic evolution of the multi-level effects based on disaster energy field. According to catastrophic dynamic model, it establishes dynamic evolution model and simulation analysis technology of landslides, mudslides and earthquakes and other hazard behaviors. It considers the law of destruction or damage of the typical grid hazard bearing body. After establishing mathematical model and simulation analysis, it divides the disaster bearing capacity of grid hazard bearing body into many grades and establishes the disaster bearing capacity model to assess integrated disaster bearing capacity of different scales and different hazard bearing bodies. It also determines characteristics of vulnerability and resistance to impact of geological disasters of disaster bearing body of regional power grid.
(3) Research on risk assessment of grid geological disasters. It establishes catastrophe risk of regional grid system and studies coupling relationship model of disaster vulnerability and hazard vulnerability and establishes the catastrophe risk assessment model according to characteristics of disasters and grid system, monitoring data and the relationship between disaster vulnerability and hazard vulnerability of disaster bearing body. It discusses catastrophe risk classification standard of regional grid system and forecasts risk and the long-scale catastrophe risk distribution in grid system attracted by natural disasters. It also analyzes the magnitude distribution change law of catastrophic risks resulted from precipitating factors. It mainly studies risk assessment of grid geological disasters according to the monitoring and warning system of Yunnan Grid. The first innovation of this part lies in that it puts forward the concept of weighted point density in geological disasters, establishes the matrix calculation model, and gives the calculation examples combined with the specific circumstances in Yunnan. The other innovation lies in that it considers the coefficient of proportionality and population density and economic density in the calculation of indirect economic loss of a single transmission line in a disaster, which overcomes the simplistic and rough solution to define indirect economic loss in a disaster according to the ratio of indirect loss and direct loss.
(4) Research on monitoring and warning system and catastrophe risk management control of grid geological disasters. It establishes the rules, methods and models of catastrophic emergency decision-making analysis. And it proposes the auxiliary decision support of catastrophe risk according to the result of monitoring and dynamic catastrophe risk assessment to guide the appropriate precautions of staff timely. It also establishes risk management and control system of regional grid. Then it establishes advanced forecasting and warning and emergency response mechanism and forms feedback control system. The innovation of the this part lies in that Recognition-primed Decision Model (RPD) and the evaluation decision model of information entropy are introduced into the field of emergency command decision-making in power grid. And based on above, emergency decision-making system is formed for power system.
引文
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