摘要
近几十年来,在自然条件变化和人类社会活动的共同影响下,全球气候正在经历一场以变暖为主要特征的显著变化。气候变化问题直接涉及到人类社会经济发展的方式以及全球能源利用的结构和数量,已经成为影响21世纪全球发展的一个重大国际问题。全球气候变暖对世界和中国的自然生态系统和社会经济已经产生并将继续产生重大的影响。
农业是人类社会赖以生存的基本生活资料的来源,直接关系到人类社会的生存和发展。气候变化的影响是全方位、多层次、多尺度的,有正面影响,也有负面影响,其中负面影响更大。气候变化对中国的不利影响较为严重,《中国应对气候变化国家方案》(2008)中指出,气候变化对中国国民经济主要产生负面影响,中国未来粮食生产在气候变化下将面临三个突出问题：一是粮食生产会变得不稳定,粮食产量波动变大,如果不采取相应的适应性措施,水稻、小麦、玉米三大粮食作物均将以减产为主；二是粮食生产结构和布局会发生变动,作物种植制度可能产生较大变化；三是农业生产条件会发生改变,农业生产成本因为气候变化会大幅度增加。因此,加强对气候变化相关领域的科学研究,探讨气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响,分析减缓和适应气候变化的应对策略,对于保障中国粮食安全、提高农民收入、维护社会稳定,具有十分重要的意义。
气候变化影响评估已成为国际学术界最为关注的研究领域之一,而分析气候变化对粮食生产的影响及应对气候变化的适应性对策正成为当前迫切需要解决的问题。目前关于气候变化影响的研究主要局限在自然科学领域,一般不涉及社会经济因素。粮食生产不仅受气候因素等自然条件的影响,还受各种社会经济因素的影响,气候变化对粮食生产的影响也需要作为气象学与经济学的交叉学科来加以研究。在目前中国的气候变化研究中,自然科学领域还尚未引入经济学的理论和方法,而通过经济学方法研究气候变化又缺乏气象学的支撑,这一交叉领域的研究进展缓慢。
本文对全球气候变化问题进行了概述,分析了全国及各地区温度、降水量和农业气象灾害的变化情况,并从有利和不利两个方面总结气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响。在实证分析中,以水稻为例,通过在C-D生产函数中加入气候因子,构建了经济-气候新模型,实证分析气候变化对中国各地区水稻产量的影响大小和地区差异,并计算分析了全国及各地区农业气象灾害造成的粮食损失；利用IPCC AR4数据对B2排放情景下2020年中国各省区的气温和降水变化情况进行了计算模拟,分别构建了气候变化影响模拟方案和气候变化适应性方案两大类模拟方案,并通过中国农业政策分析模型对两类方案五种不同情景下的各地区粮食生产情况进行了模拟研究,分析不同情景下各地区粮食播种面积和产量变化以及粮食种植结构变化情况,并分析不同情景方案对未来粮食安全的影响。在以上结论的基础上,从适应性方面提出了粮食生产应对气候变化的应对策略。全文主要结论如下：
(1)近50年来,全国以及华北、东北、华东、中南地区的年平均温度都呈现出不断升高的趋势,90年代后的温度增幅最为明显,而西南地区的温度变化不明显,没有表现出温度升高的趋势。从降水的变化趋势看,全国以及东北、华东、中南、西南地区的年平均降水变化都不明显,而华北地区的年平均降水量从60到80年代呈现出一定的下降趋势,但80年代后又趋于稳定。近30年来,全国的旱灾情况未发生明显变化,水灾表现出显著的恶化趋势；华北地区的旱灾和水灾情况都较为稳定；东北地区的旱灾表现出显著的恶化趋势,而水灾则呈现出明显的好转趋势；华东、中南和西南地区的情况相似,都是旱灾呈现出较为明显的好转趋势,而水灾则表现出严重的恶化趋势；西北地区则是旱灾和水灾都表现出明显的恶化趋势。
(2)温度升高对中国东北以外地区的水稻产量都有显著的负影响。温度升高对水稻产量的影响存在显著的地区差异,温度升高对西北地区水稻生产的影响最大,其次是中南地区,再次是华东和华北地区,对西南地区的影响最小。降水量对中国水稻产量的影响不显著,这和各地区的年均降水量变化情况有着直接关系,各地降水量在一个较长时期内基本保持稳定,和温度的显著变化趋势有着很大差异；水稻播种面积、农业劳动力、化肥施用量对水稻产量有正的影响,其中水稻播种面积的影响最大,中国的水稻产量在很大的程度上都要依赖于耕地资源；农业机械投入对大部分地区的水稻产量有正的影响；技术进步对中国水稻产量有显著的正影响,加快技术进步是减缓气候变化不利影响的主要措施。
(3)农业气象灾害每年都要造成巨大的粮食减产,全国的年平均粮食灾损为2062.8万吨,年均粮食减产百分比为4.7%。华北、东北和西北地区的粮食减产情况都较为严重。农业气象灾害造成的粮食损失情况表现出显著的恶化趋势,各地区粮食灾损的增长速度都超过了粮食产量的增长速度,因灾造成的粮食减产百分比不断升高,粮食产量的增长有相当一部分被农业气象灾害造成的粮食损失所抵消,西北地区的粮食减产恶化趋势最为严重。
(4)在B2情景下,2020年全国平均气温将上升0.28℃,除西藏外的各省区平均气温都将升高,中南地区平均气温升高最为明显,西南部分省区平均气温升高也较为明显,华东和西北地区平均气温升高则较为适中,华北和东北地区平均气温升高较不明显；2020年全国平均降水量变化不明显,多数省份的平均降水量小幅增加,华东各省区的降水量增加较多,中南和西南地区的部分省份平均降水量则出现小幅降低。
(5)构建了气候变化影响模拟方案和气候变化适应性模拟方案两大类模拟方案,通过中国农业政策分析模型对两类方案五种不同情景下的各地区粮食生产情况进行了模拟研究,分析不同情景下各地区粮食播种面积和产量变化以及粮食种植结构变化情况。气候变化影响模拟方案模拟气候变化背景下由于降雨减少导致水资源短缺、或由于未来气候变化造成粮食单产下降的情景：在未来部分省区发生干旱水资源减少的情景下,粮食总产量将减少0.5%,华北、西南和西北三个地区粮食产量会出现减少,尤其是华北和西北地区的粮食减产幅度均超过10%,部分省区干旱对全国粮食总产量造成的影响较为轻微,并且各个地区将会补种改种需水量较小的旱地作物以减轻干旱对粮食生产造成的不利影响；在未来气温升高粮食单产下降的情景下,全国粮食总产量将减少10.1%,其中水稻总产量减少12.8%,小麦总产量减少10.0%,玉米总产量减少7.1%,华北、华东、中南、西南、西北五个地区的粮食产量都将出现减少,而东北地区的粮食产量则将小幅增加,气温上升将对中国未来的粮食生产带来一定程度的不利影响。
(6)气候变化适应性模拟方案模拟人类采取积极有效措施(推广双季稻、技术进步等)以应对气候变化,通过情景模拟来估计所发挥的作用：在部分省区推广双季稻的情景下,粮食总产量将增加1.5%,全国水稻总产量将增加3.7%,尤其是中南地区水稻增产达12.7%,而小麦和玉米产量则变化不明显,在部分省区推广双季稻对全国粮食产量的提高有着积极作用；在技术进步的适应性情景下,粮食总产量将增加14.9%,其中水稻总产量增加14.9%,小麦总产量增加3.5%,玉米总产量增加22.6%,华北地区将成为我国小麦的第一大产区,而东北地区粮食产量增幅较大,其粮食产量占全国粮食总产量的比重达到四分之一,通过技术进步的适应性措施可以抵消气候变化对粮食生产的不利影响,对未来全国粮食产量的提高有着重要作用。在气候变化综合适应性情景下,全国粮食总产量将增加25.4%,其中水稻总产量增加35.6%,小麦总产量增加12.6%,玉米总产量增加22.6%,除西北地区外的五个地区粮食产量都将出现增长,东北地区粮食产量尤其是玉米产量增幅明显,其玉米产量将占到全国玉米总产量的一半,同时采取推广双季稻和引种的适应性措施对粮食产量的提高程度要明显高于单独推广双季稻和单独引种和技术进步。
(7)到2020年我国粮食自给率为77.2%。在未来部分省区发生干旱的气候变化影响情景下,粮食自给率为76.8%,三大作物中仅玉米的自给率出现下降；在未来气温升高粮食单产下降的气候变化影响情景下,粮食自给率为69.4%,三大粮食作物的自给率均出现下降,尤其是水稻自给率下降达11个百分点；在未来部分省区推广双季稻的气候变化适应性情景下,粮食自给率为78.3%；在引种和技术进步的气候变化适应性情景下,粮食自给率为88.6%,水稻接近完全自给；在气候变化综合适应性情景下,粮食自给率将达到96.7%,基本达到粮食完全自给,其对于提高粮食自给率的程度要明显高于单纯推广双季稻和单纯引种和技术进步,可以抵消气候变化对粮食生产的不利影响,从而强有力的保障国家粮食安全,实现国家粮食安全战略目标。
最后,本文根据上述研究结论,从适应性的角度提出了粮食生产应对气候变化应采取的对策措施。
Recently decades, under the common influence of natural conditions change and human social activities, global climate is experiencing a significant change of climate warming as the main characteristic. The issues of Climate changing are related to the economic development of human society and the structure and quantity of global energy utilization, which was a serious issue affecting the global development in21st century. Global warming now affects and will continue affecting the natural ecological system and the social economy of the world's and China's.
Climate change and its impact are multi-scale, all-round, multi-level, positive and negative effects, but negative impact was concerned more. Climate change adverse influence on China's relatively serious,"the China national plan to respond to climate change "(2008), noted that the influence of climate change to the of China's national economy is mainly negative affection, which will make China's food production face three outstanding problems in the future:firstly, climate change will led to the increase of instability of food output, unless taking adaptation measures, the output of wheat, rice and maize will decrease, secondly, the layout and the structure of food production will change and the cropping systems and the crop varieties will change; Finally, the agricultural conditions will change and the agriculture cost and the investment demand will increase dramatically. Therefore, it's an extremely vital significance to strengthen the climate change related field, discusses the climate change on food production in China, analyzes the mitigation and adaptation strategies of influence of climate change, guarantee the security of our country's food and increase farmers'income, maintain social stability.
Climate change impact assessment has become the most attention international academic research area, and the analysis of climate change effects on food production and agricultural climate change adaptation are becoming an urgent problem to be solved. At present, research about the effects of climate change mainly confined to natural science area, generally don't involve social and economic factors. Food production are not only affected by climate factors, but also affected by various social economic factors. Climate change impact on food production also needs to be studied as meteorology and economics interdisciplinary. During the current research of climate change, natural science was not yet introduced to the theory and method of economics and the meteorological cross area of research progress is slow through the research of economics of climate change which was lack of support.
This paper overview the issues of global climate change, summarizes the trends and characteristics of climate change, analyze the change conditions and development trend of national and regional temperature and precipitation and agricultural meteorological disaster, summarize climate change effects of food production in China from two aspects of the advantage and disadvantage. In the empirical analysis, take rice as an example, construct the new model of economic climate through adding climate factor into the c-d production function, and analyze empirically the influence of climate change to the rice yield in different areas in China and regional difference. Analyze and calculation the losses number of agricultural meteorological disasters; Calculate and simulate the change of temperature and precipitation of Chinese provinces in2020on B2emission scenarios using the IPCC AR4data, construct respectively two kinds of simulation program:the impact of climate change simulation program and climate change adaptation simulation program. Simulate and analyze food production in each region under five different scenarios of two kinds of simulation schemes through the Chinese agriculture policy analysis model. Analyze the grain planting area and yield changes and planting structure changes under different scenarios in each region; analyze the influence of different scenarios to food security in the future. Based on the above conclusions, put forward the counter measures from aspect of adaptation to climate change in food production. The conclusions of full text mainly are as follows:
(1) Nearly fifty years, the annual average temperature of north China, northeast China, and east China are presenting a rising trend. The temperature rises the most obviously after the1990s. However, the temperature of the southwest region changes not obviously, which shows a trend of temperature rising. From the trend of perspective, the average annual precipitation of nationwide, northeastern, eastern, southern and southwestern changes not obviously, but the average annual rainfall in north China has certain down trend from1960s to1980s, but it remained stable after the1980s. Nearly thirty years, it did not obviously change of the drought conditions in our country; however it appeared a significant deterioration of flood; droughts and floods in north China are relatively stable; drought in northeast region's appeared significant deterioration, but the flood is obviously presented a better situation; the situation of eastern, southern and southwestern are similar, drought is obviously presented a better situation, but the flood appeared significant deterioration; droughts and floods in northwest area have shown significant deterioration.
(2) Temperature rise has significantly negative influence on our regional rice yield, outside the northeast. Temperature rise influent the rice yield has significant regional differences, the maximum impact to the northwest, followed by the south, again is the east and north, southwest of China is affected the minimum. The difference between various regions to some extent, reflects regions in adapt to climate change capacity differences excepting different from regional natural environment and agricultural production conditions. The influence to China's rice yield of precipitation of the average annual rainfall is not obviously, which has a direct relationship with the change of average annual rainfall. The average annual rainfall of different areas are relatively in basic stability in a long period, it has very big difference from the significant change trend of temperature; The rice sowing area, agricultural labor and chemical fertilizer have a positive influence on food production, the rice sowing area affects it the most, China's rice production depends on the resources of cultivated land to a great extent; Most areas of agricultural machinery input on the rice yield has a positive impact on the nationwide. But the nationwide and south area will have negative influence on it, its elasticity coefficient are smaller. Technical progreЁf has significantly positive effects on China's rice output; accelerating technological progress is the main measures to mitigate the impact of climate change.
(3) Agrometeorological hazards cause tremendous reduction in grain output every year. The annual mean grain loss of the nation reaches2,062,8000tons, and the percentage of the annual mean reduction in grain output accounts for4.7%. Reduction is relatively severer in North China, Northeast, and Northwest. Grain loss caused by agrometeorological hazards is on the trend of deterioration as the growth rate of grain loss in several regions has exceeded that of grain output. The percent of the reducing of grain output caused by disaster is increasing day and day. Quite part of grain output growth has been offset by the grain loss caused by meteorological disasters. Food production of northwest China is the most serious deterioration, and the deterioration of north China is the lightest.
(4) Under the circumstance of B2, the average temperature in our country will increase by0.28℃in2020. Except for Tibet, the average temperature in all provinces will increase, among which the central south boasts the most obvious increase, some provinces and areas in the southwest have the obvious increase, the east and the northwest are modest, the north and the northeast are inconspicuous. The average precipitation in China will not change obviously in2020, with small increase in most provinces, much increase in the provinces and areas in the east, and small decrease in some provinces in the central south and the southwest.
(5) Construct respectively two kinds of simulation program:the impact of climate change simulation program and climate change adaptation simulation program. Simulate and analyze food production in each region under five different scenarios of two kinds of simulation schemes through the Chinese agriculture policy analysis model. Analyze the grain planting area and yield changes and planting structure changes under different scenarios in each region; analyze the influence of different scenarios to food security in the future. The impact of climate change simulation program simulate the scene of water resource shortage due to a reduction in rainfall or the scene of per unit area yield decrease due to climate change in the future. If drought happens in some provinces and areas with decreasing water resources in the future, the overall yield of grain will decrease by0.5%. Grain yield will be reduced in the north, southwest and northwest of China, especially in North and Northwest of China, the rate of reduction in grain yield will be more than10%. The drought in some provinces and areas has little impact on the overall yield of the grain in the country, and each region will replant upland crops which need small water in order to reduce the adverse effects caused by drought. In the case of the increasing temperature and declining yield of grains per unit in the future, the overall yield of grain in the country will decrease by10.1%. The overall yield of rice will decrease by12.8%, the overall yield of wheat will decrease by10.0%, and the overall yield of corn will decrease by7.1%. Grain yield will be reduced in north, east, south central, southwest, northwest of China, while the grain yield in northeast will increase slightly. To some degree, the increase of the temperature will bring negative impact on the food production of China in the future.
(6) Climate change adaptation simulation program simulate the human take positive and effective measures (extension of double cropping rice, technology progress) in order to deal with climate change and estimate the effect through the scene simulation. As the double cropping of rice spreads in some provinces and areas, the overall yield of grain will increase by1.5%. The overall yield of rice will increase by3.7%, especially the overall yield of rice in the central south will increase by12.7%, but the yield of wheat and corn did not change significantly. The generalization of the double cropping of rice in some provinces and areas plays a positive role in the food yield of the whole country. Under the circumstance of the suitability of the technological progress, the overall yield of grain will increase by14.9%. The overall yield of rice will increase by14.9%, the overall yield of wheat will increase by3.5%, and the overall yield of corn will increase by22.6%. North China will become the largest producing area of wheat in China while Northeast boasts a bigger growth rate of grain output, accounting for one fourth of the total grain output of the nation. The suitability measures of technological progress can offset the negative impact on the food production by the change of climate, which is very import in increasing the yield of grain of the whole country in the future. Under the circumstance of climate change comprehensive adaptability, the overall yield of grain will increase by25.4%. The overall yield of rice will increase by35.6%, the overall yield of wheat will increase by12.6%, and the overall yield of corn will increase by22.6%. Except for Northwest, all of five other regions will increase in grain output. In Northeast, the growth rate will be quite obvious in grain output, especially corn output, accounting for half of the total corn output of the nation. In the meantime, adaptation measures of promoting both double cropping rice and introduction will bring about increase in grain output more obviously than those of simply promoting double cropping rice, and simply promoting introduction and technological advance.
(7) By2020, China will achieve a self-sufficiency rate of77.2%in grain. In the future, under the condition of climate change of drought in some provinces and regions, the self-sufficiency rate will be76.8%, and among three main crops only corn will face decrease in the rate; under the condition of climate change that rising temperature leads to reduced per unit area yield of grain, the self-sufficiency rate will be69.4%, and all three main crops will face decrease of which rice will reduce by11%; under the adaptation condition of climate change of promoting double cropping rice in some provinces and regions, the self-sufficiency rate will be78.3%; under the adaptation condition of climate change of promoting introduction and technological advance, the self-sufficiency rate will be88.6%and rice will be close to complete self-sufficiency; under comprehensive adaptation condition of climate change, the self-sufficiency rate will reach96.7%where grain will basically reach complete self-sufficiency, which can increase the self-sufficiency rate obviously higher than simple promotion of double cropping rice and simple promotion of introduction and technological advance, and offset the adverse impact of climate change on grain output, thus ensuring strong protection of national food safety and achieving the strategic goal of national food safety.
Finally, our country should adopt some measures from adaptation aspect to deal with climate change in food production based on the above research conclusion.
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