中国柑橘鲜果价格形成及影响因素研究
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摘要
中国是世界上的柑橘生产及消费大国,截止2011年,我国柑橘的种植面积已达到2288.3千公顷,产量已达到2944万吨,均居于世界首位。柑橘产业的快速发展,为满足国内消费者的需求、增加果农收入及扭转贸易逆差做出了重要的贡献。然而,柑橘产业在发展过程中也存在着一些问题,比如单产水平还比较低、出口比例有待提高、小生产与大市场的矛盾突出等,特别是受市场经济的影响,柑橘价格忽上忽下波动,经常会发生“柑橘卖难”的情况,使柑橘生产者遭受较大的经济损失,挫伤生产者的积极性。因此,在市场经济条件下,掌握柑橘价格的波动规律及形成机制,找出价格的主要影响因素有着非常重要的意义。
本文以柑橘价格为研究主线,运用经济学原理较为系统全面地研究了市场经济条件下,我国柑橘的价格波动规律及形成机制。首先,对建国以来柑橘价格体制改革的历程进行了回顾,对历年柑橘价格的波动特征及波动周期进行了分析。随后,分别对柑橘的生产者价格、消费者价格与主要影响因素的关系进行了理论与实证研究,得出了各主要影响因素对价格的影响程度。紧接着,构建了柑橘价格形成的理论均衡模型。该模型引入了中间商市场,从而架起了生产者市场与消费者市场之间的桥梁。在理论模型中代入柑橘市场的参数数据进行实证分析,不仅可以得到外生冲击对柑橘价格及产量的影响程度,还可以得到价格在不同市场中传导的方向及大小。最后,对柑橘鲜果的价格进行了预测。
本文主要的创新之处有以下三点：
第一,首次将我国柑橘价格分为生产者价格与消费者价格分别进行理论与实证研究。运用通径分析方法研究了生产者价格与主要影响因素之间的关系,得出生产成本、受灾面积及总产量对柑橘的生产者价格影响较大；通过VAR模型研究了消费者价格与主要影响因素之间的关系,得出居民可支配收入、CPI及替代品价格对柑橘的消费者价格影响较大。
第二,首次构建了柑橘价格形成的理论模型,将生产者价格与消费者价格纳入了柑橘价格形成体系之中,具有一定的创新性。该模型将柑橘经由生产者市场、中间商市场、消费者市场达到均衡价格的过程进行了数理推导。对理论模型的实证研究,可以测算出柑橘生产者价格、消费者价格、供给量、需求量等内生变量在外生冲击下的反映程度。
第三,本文对柑橘价格传导的研究在方法上具有创新性。在研究柑橘生产者价格及消费者价格的双向传导过程中,不仅考虑了中间商市场的衔接作用,还同时兼顾三个市场的均衡,比目前学术界在价格传导问题上的研究更为深入。结果显示：柑橘在生产者市场和消费者市场之间的价格传导是极不对称的。柑橘由生产者市场的外生冲击引起的生产者价格每上涨1%时,只有约0.7254%可以传导到消费者价格中去；而由柑橘消费者市场的外生冲击引起的消费者价格每上涨1%时,约有1.5926%可以传导到生产者价格中去。
通过本文的研究,主要得出以下几点结论：
第一,1949年至今,我国柑橘价格体制改革的过程相当复杂,国家对柑橘的价格管理权限出现了反复的回收与下放。市场开放后,柑橘产业迅猛发展,种植面积不断扩大、产量剧增、种植户收入提高,但也存在一定的问题如价格波动频繁,质量良莠不齐、管理难度大等。纵观我国柑橘价格体制变迁的历程可知,柑橘价格由市场来决定成效是显著的,然而市场这只看不见的手也有失灵的时候。因此,在适当的时候,政府可以从宏观上加强指导和协调,才能兼顾生产者、中间商及消费者三者的利益,稳定地促进柑橘产业的发展。
第二,对我国柑橘鲜果1950-2011年的名义生产者价格及实际生产者价格波动规律进行分析,发现名义生产者价格波动非常剧烈且上涨趋势明显,而剔除通货膨胀因素后的实际生产者价格在60多年里波动非常平缓且不存在明显的上升趋势。
第三,利用HP滤波法对我国柑橘的实际生产者价格进行去势分析,发现我国柑橘价格波动具有明显的周期性特征。通过“波峰-波峰”判别法,柑橘鲜果的价格波动可以分为6个完整的周期,即第一周期为1978-1988年,第二周期为1989-1994年,第三周期为1995-1996年,第四周期为1997-2002年,第五周期为2003-2005年,第六周期为2006-2010年。分析可知,柑橘价格的平均波动周期为5.7年,波动周期具有不可重复性和非对称性。
第四,从供给角度研究柑橘价格实际上是研究柑橘的生产者价格。首先通过理论分析找出了影响柑橘生产者价格的因素,然后利用通径分析法对生产者价格及影响因素的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示：柑橘生产者价格受到生产成本、总产量、自然灾害情况、净出口量、出口价格等因素的影响。生产成本、受灾面积及总产量对生产者价格的总影响较大,此外还得出了各影响因素对柑橘生产者价格的直接作用及间接作用程度。
第五,从需求角度研究柑橘价格实际上是研究柑橘的消费者价格。首先通过理论分析找出了影响柑橘消费者价格的因素,然后利用VAR模型对消费者价格及影响因素的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示：柑橘消费者价格受到苹果价格、香蕉价格、CPI、GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、总人口及城市化水平等因素的影响。城镇居民人均可支配收入、CPI及苹果的价格对柑橘消费者价格的影响较大,而城市化进程、香蕉的价格对柑橘消费者价格的影响较小。
第六,对本文构建的柑橘价格形成理论模型进行实证分析,得到以下结论：
(1)通过测算,得到外生变量柑橘生产中劳动力的价格、生产中资本的价格、投入品劳动力的价格、投入品资本的价格、替代品价格以及居民消费支出每变动1%,将会影响柑橘生产者价格的变化分别为1.0242%、0.3081%、-0.0013%、-0.0015%、0.1098%及0.2830%。同样的六个外生变量每变动1%,将会影响柑橘消费者价格的变化分别为0.7432%、0.2235%、0.1375%、0.1650%、0.0689%以及0.1777%。值得一提的是,外生冲击对生产者价格的影响要普遍大于对消费者价格的影响。此外,投入品劳动力的价格和投入品资本的价格对柑橘生产者价格的冲击是负向的,而对柑橘消费者价格的冲击是正向的。
(2)柑橘价格在生产者市场和消费者市场间的传导是极不对称的。实证结果表明,因生产者市场上的外生冲击所导致的生产者价格向消费者价格传导的弹性为0.7256,即柑橘生产者市场上的价格波动只有约七成左右被传递到消费者市场；而因消费者市场的外生冲击所导致的消费者价格向生产者价格传导的弹性为1.5926,说明柑橘消费者市场上的价格波动会加倍传导到生产者市场,两个市场之间的价格传导是极不对称的。
(3)实证结果表明,柑橘生产者市场和消费者市场上都存在着价格缩小效应,即在外生冲击的影响下,生产者市场和消费者市场上柑橘价格变化的幅度都小于产量变化的幅度。柑橘市场的这个结论与之前学者对农产品市场的推测相反。
第七,对柑橘生产者价格进行预测,希望能够为包括生产者、中间商及消费者等参与主体的经济决策提供一些参考依据。未来九年里(2012-2020年)柑橘的生产者价格预测结果为108.0071、110.5691、113.1311、115.6931、118.2550、120.8170、123.3790、125.9410以及128.5029元/50千克。
最后,本文提出要想稳定柑橘市场价格,促进柑橘产业的健康发展,必须从以下几个方面努力：从柑橘生产者入手,提高柑橘生产者的组织化程度；规范柑橘流通中的中间商市场,缩短柑橘流通的时间；减少柑橘流通中的行政干预,减免流通环节费用；建立完善的信息发布平台,加强柑橘生产者、中间商及消费者间的联系；加强柑橘产业的标准化建设；设计合理的柑橘主体利益分享机制。
China is a large citrus producing and consuming country in the world. At the end of2011, the acreage and production of citrus are more than any other country in the world. And acreage has reached2288.3thousand hectares, while production has reached29.44million tons. The rapid development of the citrus industry has made an important contribution to meet the demand of domestic consumers, increase the income of farmers and reverse the trade deficit. However, there are some problems in the development process of citrus fruits industry. For instance, yield level and the proportion of exports are still relatively low. Also, the contradiction between small production and big market is prominent. Especially in a market economy, the price of citrus usually fluctuates, and it is difficult to grasp the price variation. Citrus producers often suffer large economic losses from the market. So it is important for us to identify the main affecting factors and grasp price fluctuations and formation mechanism.
Taking citrus prices as the main line, it is studied more systematically and comprehensively about price fluctuations and formation mechanism in the Chinese market economy. First, this paper briefly reviews the process of institutional change about price of citrus, and analyzes price volatility characteristics and cycle over the years. Then, the influencing factors which cause the changes of producer prices and consumer prices are discussed. Subsequently, reseller market which has set up a bridge between the producer and consumer markets has been introduced in the study, and a model which considers equilibrium of three markets has been established, followed by a empirical analysis. Finally, price-prediction of citrus has been made.
This paper has several innovations.(1)This is the first time to study citrus prices and its formation mechanism in deep, and the possible factors which cause price fluctuation from the production areas to the consumer area. Otherwise, the key impact factors have been determined.(2)With theoretical analysis, it is the first time to put extremely complex circulation into the price model. The EDM model reflects that how price reaches the equilibrium price through the producer market, reseller market and consumer market. The results of this model are closer to reality.(3)The research method of citrus price transmission is innovative. Because the study about citrus price's bidirectional conduction between producer market and consumer market considers the reseller market and the balance of three markets, which gives a more convincing result compared with other research.
Through this research, conclusions are drawn as following:
Firstly, the process of citrus price's institutional change is very complex and the administrative privileges of citrus price have been revoked and delegated repeatedly since1949. After market opening, citrus industry has developed rapidly with acreage, yield and farmers'income increasing. Also there are some problems as the price often goes up and down, and it is difficult to manage. Through the history of citrus price's institutional change process, price is determined by the markets, which has been proved effective. However, the market regulation does not always work properly. Government can offer guidance at the appropriate time to balance the interests of producers, resellers and consumers and promote the development of citrus industry.
Secondly, the fluctuation rule of nominal producer price and actual producer price are analysed. The result shows that the fluctuation of nominal producer price is very severe and has obvious rising trend from1950to2011, while the fluctuation of actual producer prices which excludes the influence of inflation factors gently and shows no upward trend.
Thirdly, using HP filter method to analysis the actual producer price of citrus, it appears that citrus price has strong cyclical characteristics. Citrus price can be divided into six complete cycles. And the first cycle is1978-1988, the second cycle is1989-1994, the third cycle is1995-1996, the fourth cycle is1997-2002, the fifth cycle is2003-2005and the sixth cycle is2006-2010. It is found that the average cycle of citrus price fluctuation is5.7year. Also the fluctuations cycle is unrepeatable and asymmetric.
Fourthly, through theoretical and empirical analysis, it is found that production costs, production, natural disasters, net exports, the exchange rate and export prices are influential to citrus'producer price. While production costs, natural disasters and production have strong combined effect on citrus'producer price. Besides, important influence factors which have direct and indirect impact are also considered.
Fifthly, based on the demand viewpoint to research citrus price, it is actually research the consumer price of citrus. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis, it shows that the consumer prices of citrus are affected by apples price, bananas prices, CPI, GDP, income, population and urbanization level and so on. Through the exogenous shocks of influencing factors, income, CPI and apples price has strong impact on consumer prices, while urbanization and bananas prices have lesser impacts on consumer prices.
Sixthly, we make a empirical analysis on theoretical of citrus price formation, and draw conclusions:(1) In the simplified theoretical model, the impact from the exogenous variables to citrus producer price from largest to smallest is labor price in production, capital price in production, income, price of apple, input prices of labor and input prices of capital. In addition, the impact from the exogenous variables to citrus consumer price from largest to smallest is labor price in production, capital price in production, income, input prices of capital, input prices of labor price and price of apple.(2)Price conduction between the citrus producer and consumer markets is asymmetric. The empirical results show that the transmission elasticity from the producer market passed to the consumer market is0.7256under the exogenous shocks, while that the transmission elasticity from the consumer market passed to the producer market is1.5926under the exogenous shocks.(3) The empirical results show that there exists reduction effect in the citrus producers and consumer market. That is, under the exogenous shocks, the extent of variation of production is bigger than prices. And this conclusion is contrary to previous studies.
Seventhly, in order to give producers, brokers and consumers some help, we try to forecast the producer price of citrus in the next nine years. The predictions suggest that the producer price of citrus are RMB108.0071,110.5691,113.1311,115.6931,118.2550,120.8170,123.3790,125.9410and128.5029per fifty kilograms from2012to2020.
Finally, in order to stabilize the prices of citrus market and promote the healthy development of citrus industry, we should make the following efforts:enhancing the farmers' organization level; regulating the reseller market; reducing administrative intervention in citrus circulation; establishing an information release platform; strengthening the construction of standardization of citrus industry; designing a reasonable benefit share mechanism.
本文以柑橘价格为研究主线,运用经济学原理较为系统全面地研究了市场经济条件下,我国柑橘的价格波动规律及形成机制。首先,对建国以来柑橘价格体制改革的历程进行了回顾,对历年柑橘价格的波动特征及波动周期进行了分析。随后,分别对柑橘的生产者价格、消费者价格与主要影响因素的关系进行了理论与实证研究,得出了各主要影响因素对价格的影响程度。紧接着,构建了柑橘价格形成的理论均衡模型。该模型引入了中间商市场,从而架起了生产者市场与消费者市场之间的桥梁。在理论模型中代入柑橘市场的参数数据进行实证分析,不仅可以得到外生冲击对柑橘价格及产量的影响程度,还可以得到价格在不同市场中传导的方向及大小。最后,对柑橘鲜果的价格进行了预测。
本文主要的创新之处有以下三点：
第一,首次将我国柑橘价格分为生产者价格与消费者价格分别进行理论与实证研究。运用通径分析方法研究了生产者价格与主要影响因素之间的关系,得出生产成本、受灾面积及总产量对柑橘的生产者价格影响较大；通过VAR模型研究了消费者价格与主要影响因素之间的关系,得出居民可支配收入、CPI及替代品价格对柑橘的消费者价格影响较大。
第二,首次构建了柑橘价格形成的理论模型,将生产者价格与消费者价格纳入了柑橘价格形成体系之中,具有一定的创新性。该模型将柑橘经由生产者市场、中间商市场、消费者市场达到均衡价格的过程进行了数理推导。对理论模型的实证研究,可以测算出柑橘生产者价格、消费者价格、供给量、需求量等内生变量在外生冲击下的反映程度。
第三,本文对柑橘价格传导的研究在方法上具有创新性。在研究柑橘生产者价格及消费者价格的双向传导过程中,不仅考虑了中间商市场的衔接作用,还同时兼顾三个市场的均衡,比目前学术界在价格传导问题上的研究更为深入。结果显示：柑橘在生产者市场和消费者市场之间的价格传导是极不对称的。柑橘由生产者市场的外生冲击引起的生产者价格每上涨1%时,只有约0.7254%可以传导到消费者价格中去；而由柑橘消费者市场的外生冲击引起的消费者价格每上涨1%时,约有1.5926%可以传导到生产者价格中去。
通过本文的研究,主要得出以下几点结论：
第一,1949年至今,我国柑橘价格体制改革的过程相当复杂,国家对柑橘的价格管理权限出现了反复的回收与下放。市场开放后,柑橘产业迅猛发展,种植面积不断扩大、产量剧增、种植户收入提高,但也存在一定的问题如价格波动频繁,质量良莠不齐、管理难度大等。纵观我国柑橘价格体制变迁的历程可知,柑橘价格由市场来决定成效是显著的,然而市场这只看不见的手也有失灵的时候。因此,在适当的时候,政府可以从宏观上加强指导和协调,才能兼顾生产者、中间商及消费者三者的利益,稳定地促进柑橘产业的发展。
第二,对我国柑橘鲜果1950-2011年的名义生产者价格及实际生产者价格波动规律进行分析,发现名义生产者价格波动非常剧烈且上涨趋势明显,而剔除通货膨胀因素后的实际生产者价格在60多年里波动非常平缓且不存在明显的上升趋势。
第三,利用HP滤波法对我国柑橘的实际生产者价格进行去势分析,发现我国柑橘价格波动具有明显的周期性特征。通过“波峰-波峰”判别法,柑橘鲜果的价格波动可以分为6个完整的周期,即第一周期为1978-1988年,第二周期为1989-1994年,第三周期为1995-1996年,第四周期为1997-2002年,第五周期为2003-2005年,第六周期为2006-2010年。分析可知,柑橘价格的平均波动周期为5.7年,波动周期具有不可重复性和非对称性。
第四,从供给角度研究柑橘价格实际上是研究柑橘的生产者价格。首先通过理论分析找出了影响柑橘生产者价格的因素,然后利用通径分析法对生产者价格及影响因素的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示：柑橘生产者价格受到生产成本、总产量、自然灾害情况、净出口量、出口价格等因素的影响。生产成本、受灾面积及总产量对生产者价格的总影响较大,此外还得出了各影响因素对柑橘生产者价格的直接作用及间接作用程度。
第五,从需求角度研究柑橘价格实际上是研究柑橘的消费者价格。首先通过理论分析找出了影响柑橘消费者价格的因素,然后利用VAR模型对消费者价格及影响因素的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示：柑橘消费者价格受到苹果价格、香蕉价格、CPI、GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、总人口及城市化水平等因素的影响。城镇居民人均可支配收入、CPI及苹果的价格对柑橘消费者价格的影响较大,而城市化进程、香蕉的价格对柑橘消费者价格的影响较小。
第六,对本文构建的柑橘价格形成理论模型进行实证分析,得到以下结论：
(1)通过测算,得到外生变量柑橘生产中劳动力的价格、生产中资本的价格、投入品劳动力的价格、投入品资本的价格、替代品价格以及居民消费支出每变动1%,将会影响柑橘生产者价格的变化分别为1.0242%、0.3081%、-0.0013%、-0.0015%、0.1098%及0.2830%。同样的六个外生变量每变动1%,将会影响柑橘消费者价格的变化分别为0.7432%、0.2235%、0.1375%、0.1650%、0.0689%以及0.1777%。值得一提的是,外生冲击对生产者价格的影响要普遍大于对消费者价格的影响。此外,投入品劳动力的价格和投入品资本的价格对柑橘生产者价格的冲击是负向的,而对柑橘消费者价格的冲击是正向的。
(2)柑橘价格在生产者市场和消费者市场间的传导是极不对称的。实证结果表明,因生产者市场上的外生冲击所导致的生产者价格向消费者价格传导的弹性为0.7256,即柑橘生产者市场上的价格波动只有约七成左右被传递到消费者市场；而因消费者市场的外生冲击所导致的消费者价格向生产者价格传导的弹性为1.5926,说明柑橘消费者市场上的价格波动会加倍传导到生产者市场,两个市场之间的价格传导是极不对称的。
(3)实证结果表明,柑橘生产者市场和消费者市场上都存在着价格缩小效应,即在外生冲击的影响下,生产者市场和消费者市场上柑橘价格变化的幅度都小于产量变化的幅度。柑橘市场的这个结论与之前学者对农产品市场的推测相反。
第七,对柑橘生产者价格进行预测,希望能够为包括生产者、中间商及消费者等参与主体的经济决策提供一些参考依据。未来九年里(2012-2020年)柑橘的生产者价格预测结果为108.0071、110.5691、113.1311、115.6931、118.2550、120.8170、123.3790、125.9410以及128.5029元/50千克。
最后,本文提出要想稳定柑橘市场价格,促进柑橘产业的健康发展,必须从以下几个方面努力：从柑橘生产者入手,提高柑橘生产者的组织化程度；规范柑橘流通中的中间商市场,缩短柑橘流通的时间；减少柑橘流通中的行政干预,减免流通环节费用；建立完善的信息发布平台,加强柑橘生产者、中间商及消费者间的联系；加强柑橘产业的标准化建设；设计合理的柑橘主体利益分享机制。
China is a large citrus producing and consuming country in the world. At the end of2011, the acreage and production of citrus are more than any other country in the world. And acreage has reached2288.3thousand hectares, while production has reached29.44million tons. The rapid development of the citrus industry has made an important contribution to meet the demand of domestic consumers, increase the income of farmers and reverse the trade deficit. However, there are some problems in the development process of citrus fruits industry. For instance, yield level and the proportion of exports are still relatively low. Also, the contradiction between small production and big market is prominent. Especially in a market economy, the price of citrus usually fluctuates, and it is difficult to grasp the price variation. Citrus producers often suffer large economic losses from the market. So it is important for us to identify the main affecting factors and grasp price fluctuations and formation mechanism.
Taking citrus prices as the main line, it is studied more systematically and comprehensively about price fluctuations and formation mechanism in the Chinese market economy. First, this paper briefly reviews the process of institutional change about price of citrus, and analyzes price volatility characteristics and cycle over the years. Then, the influencing factors which cause the changes of producer prices and consumer prices are discussed. Subsequently, reseller market which has set up a bridge between the producer and consumer markets has been introduced in the study, and a model which considers equilibrium of three markets has been established, followed by a empirical analysis. Finally, price-prediction of citrus has been made.
This paper has several innovations.(1)This is the first time to study citrus prices and its formation mechanism in deep, and the possible factors which cause price fluctuation from the production areas to the consumer area. Otherwise, the key impact factors have been determined.(2)With theoretical analysis, it is the first time to put extremely complex circulation into the price model. The EDM model reflects that how price reaches the equilibrium price through the producer market, reseller market and consumer market. The results of this model are closer to reality.(3)The research method of citrus price transmission is innovative. Because the study about citrus price's bidirectional conduction between producer market and consumer market considers the reseller market and the balance of three markets, which gives a more convincing result compared with other research.
Through this research, conclusions are drawn as following:
Firstly, the process of citrus price's institutional change is very complex and the administrative privileges of citrus price have been revoked and delegated repeatedly since1949. After market opening, citrus industry has developed rapidly with acreage, yield and farmers'income increasing. Also there are some problems as the price often goes up and down, and it is difficult to manage. Through the history of citrus price's institutional change process, price is determined by the markets, which has been proved effective. However, the market regulation does not always work properly. Government can offer guidance at the appropriate time to balance the interests of producers, resellers and consumers and promote the development of citrus industry.
Secondly, the fluctuation rule of nominal producer price and actual producer price are analysed. The result shows that the fluctuation of nominal producer price is very severe and has obvious rising trend from1950to2011, while the fluctuation of actual producer prices which excludes the influence of inflation factors gently and shows no upward trend.
Thirdly, using HP filter method to analysis the actual producer price of citrus, it appears that citrus price has strong cyclical characteristics. Citrus price can be divided into six complete cycles. And the first cycle is1978-1988, the second cycle is1989-1994, the third cycle is1995-1996, the fourth cycle is1997-2002, the fifth cycle is2003-2005and the sixth cycle is2006-2010. It is found that the average cycle of citrus price fluctuation is5.7year. Also the fluctuations cycle is unrepeatable and asymmetric.
Fourthly, through theoretical and empirical analysis, it is found that production costs, production, natural disasters, net exports, the exchange rate and export prices are influential to citrus'producer price. While production costs, natural disasters and production have strong combined effect on citrus'producer price. Besides, important influence factors which have direct and indirect impact are also considered.
Fifthly, based on the demand viewpoint to research citrus price, it is actually research the consumer price of citrus. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis, it shows that the consumer prices of citrus are affected by apples price, bananas prices, CPI, GDP, income, population and urbanization level and so on. Through the exogenous shocks of influencing factors, income, CPI and apples price has strong impact on consumer prices, while urbanization and bananas prices have lesser impacts on consumer prices.
Sixthly, we make a empirical analysis on theoretical of citrus price formation, and draw conclusions:(1) In the simplified theoretical model, the impact from the exogenous variables to citrus producer price from largest to smallest is labor price in production, capital price in production, income, price of apple, input prices of labor and input prices of capital. In addition, the impact from the exogenous variables to citrus consumer price from largest to smallest is labor price in production, capital price in production, income, input prices of capital, input prices of labor price and price of apple.(2)Price conduction between the citrus producer and consumer markets is asymmetric. The empirical results show that the transmission elasticity from the producer market passed to the consumer market is0.7256under the exogenous shocks, while that the transmission elasticity from the consumer market passed to the producer market is1.5926under the exogenous shocks.(3) The empirical results show that there exists reduction effect in the citrus producers and consumer market. That is, under the exogenous shocks, the extent of variation of production is bigger than prices. And this conclusion is contrary to previous studies.
Seventhly, in order to give producers, brokers and consumers some help, we try to forecast the producer price of citrus in the next nine years. The predictions suggest that the producer price of citrus are RMB108.0071,110.5691,113.1311,115.6931,118.2550,120.8170,123.3790,125.9410and128.5029per fifty kilograms from2012to2020.
Finally, in order to stabilize the prices of citrus market and promote the healthy development of citrus industry, we should make the following efforts:enhancing the farmers' organization level; regulating the reseller market; reducing administrative intervention in citrus circulation; establishing an information release platform; strengthening the construction of standardization of citrus industry; designing a reasonable benefit share mechanism.
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