房地产资产、经济扰动和宏观经济波动
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摘要
自1998年我国实施住房制度改革开始以来，我国的房地产业取得了飞速发展，房地产业不仅供给了大量的房屋，改善了我国居民的住宿条件，而且吸纳了大量劳动力，并与钢铁、水泥、装饰装潢等上下游产业紧密结合，业已成为影响我国经济最重要的一个产业。然而伴随着房地产业的不断发展、房地产价格的持续走高以及房地产业与金融、银行信贷等金融业关联度加强，致使房地产波动对金融、经济的冲击影响亦越来越大。主要表现在：一是房地产信贷增长过快。即使在政策控制严格的2011年，全国商业性房地产贷款余额达10.73万亿元，同比增长高达13.9%；二是房地产商自有资金比重低。在我国的房地产的开发建设中，开发商多数欠缺资金，据统计，我国80%左右的土地购置和房地产开发资金，是直接或者间接地来自银行贷款，而个人通过按揭贷款买房的人，占全部购房总数的比例高达90％1，这意味着我国的房地产金融面临着非常高的金融风险；三是商业银行过度竞争，致使房地产贷款质量下降。我国的房地产贷款，尤其是个人住房贷款是各银行的优质资产，为了争取更多的市场份额，部分商业银行基层行采取变通、变相或违规做法，降低贷款标准，减少审查步骤，放松真实性审核，严重影响银行资产安全，成为经济中的重大隐患。随着我国房地产业与金融的日趋紧密联系，我国的房地产业对金融和经济影响的深层次问题也突显出来：房价上涨快速，泡沫化程度较高，而我国的房地产对金融的依赖程度又很高，远远超出发达国家对金融的依赖程度，积累的大量金融风险，直接威胁着我国金融的稳定和安全，一旦房地产泡沫破裂，房地产市场会出现严重的衰退，与房地产业紧密联系的金融业也会出现问题，对整个国家的经济都会产生重大影响。
鉴于此，本文试图将房地产、金融结合在一起，从动态一般均衡的角度，建立一个包括房地产、企业、家户、金融机构、政府等多个主体的DSGE(dynamicstochastic general equilibrium)模型，分析我国房地产、金融的关系以及房地产在经济波动中的影响和作用。本研究的内容与方法主要包括以下四个方面：
1)信贷约束、房地产与宏观经济的模拟。我们把房地产的信贷约束引入到经济中，我们假设企业和家户都会面临资金不足的状况，企业需要向银行抵押自己的房地产来获取信贷资金，普通家户通过首付贷款购买住房，而在这一过程中，无论是企业还是家户，都由于突破了资金的限制而扩大了其投资和消费的能力，使得房地产通过金融参与到经济中来，信贷约束放大了经济的波动。
2)金融加速器机制下的房地产与宏观经济模拟。经济中的企业和家户都是不一样的，企业是异质性的，家户也是异质性的，当他们向银行借贷的时候，由于个体的不同所面临的风险也不同，银行对其借贷给予不同的利率，就导致了其经济在面临外界变动时会发生不同的反应，这一房地产借贷过程通过金融加速器机制反应出来。
3)房地产银行信贷对宏观经济冲击的模拟。在我国，近几年来，房地产信贷份额占银行总的借贷量比例越来越大，房地产的投资、购买、销售波动通过信贷传导，对经济的冲击日益明显，我们将分析银行信贷和借贷利率波动如何影响包括房地产在内的整个宏观经济。
4)央行货币冲击、房地产与宏观经济互动的模拟。我国资本市场尚未完全市场化，作为政府货币政策执行者的中央银行具有非常重要的地位和作用，央行制定货币规则，控制货币发行，对经济中的信贷总量进行掌握，商业银行的贷款发行以及贷款利率的制定也受央行的影响，央行角色的引入，使我们可以更加全面的分析我国经济波动成因，寻找房地产和整个货币政策的相互关系。
模拟结果表明：房地产刚性需求的突然增加对经济是个不利的冲击，冲击推高了房价，吸引了大量资源流向房地产，导致了经济中的借贷资源从生产领域转向普通家户，大量信贷资金流入到非生产性领域，打击了经济。技术冲击对于房地产价格是有推动作用的，同时技术冲击对于经济有一个持久的推动作用，通胀率在冲击下表现出一个较低的水平。通胀冲击对于经济有很大的危害，产出、投资、房地产消费量等变量受通胀上升冲击影响明显下降，持续时间较长。财政支出增加对于投资、资本存量、产出有明显的刺激作用，实现了增长过程，但是周期不是很长。对于整个经济解释能力最强的两个因素是央行的存款准备金率和通胀冲击，成为了整个模型方差分解的最主要解释原因。
论文的创新点主要有三个：一是房地产引入宏观经济模型。房地产具有多重属性，它是消费品、投资品，也是金融中的抵押品和媒介资产，房地产对整个经济的各个层面都有不同的作用，将其多重属性的特点引入到宏观经济中从多个角度来完整刻画、分析房地产在经济中的作用，这是本文的一个创新。二是突出房地产和金融在宏观经济中的关系，房地产和金融之间的越加紧密的联系，使得经济波动通过金融对整个经济产生放大的传播作用。三是DSGE方法在中国的应用。动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)是一种包含微观基础的宏观经济模型，可以观察到整个经济系统在外界冲击后的变量所发生的各种变化，还能对经济主体的福利进行分析，这一方法在国内应用较少，而且同房地产的结合也不是很多，本文在这一方面是一种探索。
Since the beginning of China's housing system reform in1998, the real estate ofour country is developing rapidly, the real estate industry not only constructed a largenumber of housing, improve our living conditions, but also absorbed a large amountof labor. Industy of the iron and steel, cement, decoration is closeed to industry ofthe industry of the real estate, and the industry of the real estate become one of themost important industries in our country economy. However, house price go high, realestate finance, and bank credit influence the economic and financial influence. Evenin2011, national real estate loans amounted to10.73yuan, an increase of13.9%. Thereal estate developers is in low own fond proportion. China's real estate developmentand construction, investment the majority of the lack of funds, according to statistics,about80%of China's real estate development funds is directly or indirectly was givenby the bank, and amounts to90%individuals buy a house people through mortgageloan. This means that the real estate market is in the most risk on financial institutions,making China's real estate finance facing higher financial risk; the three is theCommercial Bank of excessive competition. The individual housing loan is still theasset quality of banks. In order to gain more market share, some commercial banktake alternative, disguised or illegal practices, reduce loan standards, reduceexamination steps, relax the authenticity verification, affect the safety of bank assets.With China's real estate and financial becoming closely linked, some problemsemerged: the price of real estate rise rapidly, bubble degree is higher, the real estate ofour country depended financial highly, the accumulation of a large number offinancial risk. China's financial stability and security is threated.Once the real estatebubble burst, China's real estate market will be a serious recession, and the financialindustry will appear problem, our entire financial stability will be destroyed,threatening the security of national economy.
From the point of view of dynamic general equilibrium, this article attempts totake the real estate、finance together, the model included a real estate, enterprise, household, financial institutions, government, analysis of China's real estate andfinancial relations and economic fluctuations on the impact of real estate. Throughreal estate mortgage loans, housing purchase housing Shoufu loan credit constraints,financial credit to real estate and macroscopical economy, the financial acceleratoreffect on real estate lending rate determine, central bank credit supply and currencyissuing to simulate the real estate and china’s ecomony. The research contents andmethods mainly include the following four aspects:
1) Credit constraint, real estate and macroscopical economic simulation.We carrythe real estate credit constraint to the economy, we assume that the enterprises andhouseholds will be faced to capital shortage situation, enterprises need mortgage theirreal estate to obtain credit funds, through Shoufu housing loans ordinary household topurchase, in this a process, whether business or household, both break through thelimitations of funds and expanded its investment and consumption ability, making thereal estate through financial participation into the economy, credit constraint enlargedthe economic fluctuations.
2) The financial accelerator mechanism of real estate and macroscopicaleconomic simulation. The enterprises and households are heterogeneous in Economy,due to individual faces different risks, when they borrow from a bank, bank lendingon different rates, led to its economy in the face of external changes will occurdifferent reaction, the real estate lending process through the financial acceleratorresponse.
3) The real estate bank credit on the macroeconomic impact simulation. In ourcountry, the real estate credit share in bank lending volume proportion is bigger, thereal estate investment, purchase, sales fluctuations through the credit transmission,the impact on the economy is increasingly apparent, bank credit and loan interest ratefluctuation to influence including real estate and macroscopical economy, this is usthe main problems.
4) The central bank monetary shocks, real estate and macroscopical economy interactive simulation. China is a country with governmental dominant economy, thecentral bank has an important role on the government's monetary policy, the centralbank controls the issuance of currency and the amount of credit in the economy,commercial bank’s loan interest rate conctrolled by the central bank, The role of thecentral bank introducing, we can analysis our country economy fluctuant cause offormation, find out the real estate and the monetary policy of the relation.
We find that: the real estate rigid with the sudden increase in demand on theeconomy is an adverse impact, impact pushed up housing prices, attracted a largenumber of resources to real estate, caused economy borrowing resources from theproduction areas to the ordinary household, large credit funds into the unproductiveareas, blow to the economy. Technology shocks to the real estate price is the impetus,and impact of technology on economic has a lasting impetus, the inflation rate in caseof a shock exhibited a lower level. Inflation has great harm to economy, output,investment, real estate consumption variables such as affected by rising inflationimpact significantly decreased, longer duration. Increased spending for investment,capital stock, outputs are obvious stimulation effect, achieve the growth process, butthe cycle is very long. The economic explanation for most of the two factors is thecentral bank deposit reserve rate and inflation, becomes the entire model variancedecomposition of the main explanation.
The paper's innovation mainly has three: Firstly, real estate is introduced tomacroeconomic model. Real estate has multiple attributes, it make the real estate havea different role in the whole economy, analysis the action of real estate in the ineconomy. Secondly, analyse real estate and financial relationships in the macroscopiceconomy, credit restraint mechanism amplify the real estate investment andconsumption, the financial accelerator influence the real estate lending rate,commercial bank credit impact the real estate investment and economic fluctuation,the Central Bank’s interest rate and credit amount control economy influence. Fromthis four aspects, the relation of the real estate and macroscopical economic isanalysised. Thirdly, the DSGE method is applied in china. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) is one of the microeconomic foundation ofmacroeconomic models, can be observed throughout the economic system in theexternal shock variables after the changes, but also to the welfare analysis, thismethod is rarely used in China, but the combination of real estate are not many, thisarticle in this respect is a kind of exploration.
鉴于此，本文试图将房地产、金融结合在一起，从动态一般均衡的角度，建立一个包括房地产、企业、家户、金融机构、政府等多个主体的DSGE(dynamicstochastic general equilibrium)模型，分析我国房地产、金融的关系以及房地产在经济波动中的影响和作用。本研究的内容与方法主要包括以下四个方面：
1)信贷约束、房地产与宏观经济的模拟。我们把房地产的信贷约束引入到经济中，我们假设企业和家户都会面临资金不足的状况，企业需要向银行抵押自己的房地产来获取信贷资金，普通家户通过首付贷款购买住房，而在这一过程中，无论是企业还是家户，都由于突破了资金的限制而扩大了其投资和消费的能力，使得房地产通过金融参与到经济中来，信贷约束放大了经济的波动。
2)金融加速器机制下的房地产与宏观经济模拟。经济中的企业和家户都是不一样的，企业是异质性的，家户也是异质性的，当他们向银行借贷的时候，由于个体的不同所面临的风险也不同，银行对其借贷给予不同的利率，就导致了其经济在面临外界变动时会发生不同的反应，这一房地产借贷过程通过金融加速器机制反应出来。
3)房地产银行信贷对宏观经济冲击的模拟。在我国，近几年来，房地产信贷份额占银行总的借贷量比例越来越大，房地产的投资、购买、销售波动通过信贷传导，对经济的冲击日益明显，我们将分析银行信贷和借贷利率波动如何影响包括房地产在内的整个宏观经济。
4)央行货币冲击、房地产与宏观经济互动的模拟。我国资本市场尚未完全市场化，作为政府货币政策执行者的中央银行具有非常重要的地位和作用，央行制定货币规则，控制货币发行，对经济中的信贷总量进行掌握，商业银行的贷款发行以及贷款利率的制定也受央行的影响，央行角色的引入，使我们可以更加全面的分析我国经济波动成因，寻找房地产和整个货币政策的相互关系。
模拟结果表明：房地产刚性需求的突然增加对经济是个不利的冲击，冲击推高了房价，吸引了大量资源流向房地产，导致了经济中的借贷资源从生产领域转向普通家户，大量信贷资金流入到非生产性领域，打击了经济。技术冲击对于房地产价格是有推动作用的，同时技术冲击对于经济有一个持久的推动作用，通胀率在冲击下表现出一个较低的水平。通胀冲击对于经济有很大的危害，产出、投资、房地产消费量等变量受通胀上升冲击影响明显下降，持续时间较长。财政支出增加对于投资、资本存量、产出有明显的刺激作用，实现了增长过程，但是周期不是很长。对于整个经济解释能力最强的两个因素是央行的存款准备金率和通胀冲击，成为了整个模型方差分解的最主要解释原因。
论文的创新点主要有三个：一是房地产引入宏观经济模型。房地产具有多重属性，它是消费品、投资品，也是金融中的抵押品和媒介资产，房地产对整个经济的各个层面都有不同的作用，将其多重属性的特点引入到宏观经济中从多个角度来完整刻画、分析房地产在经济中的作用，这是本文的一个创新。二是突出房地产和金融在宏观经济中的关系，房地产和金融之间的越加紧密的联系，使得经济波动通过金融对整个经济产生放大的传播作用。三是DSGE方法在中国的应用。动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)是一种包含微观基础的宏观经济模型，可以观察到整个经济系统在外界冲击后的变量所发生的各种变化，还能对经济主体的福利进行分析，这一方法在国内应用较少，而且同房地产的结合也不是很多，本文在这一方面是一种探索。
Since the beginning of China's housing system reform in1998, the real estate ofour country is developing rapidly, the real estate industry not only constructed a largenumber of housing, improve our living conditions, but also absorbed a large amountof labor. Industy of the iron and steel, cement, decoration is closeed to industry ofthe industry of the real estate, and the industry of the real estate become one of themost important industries in our country economy. However, house price go high, realestate finance, and bank credit influence the economic and financial influence. Evenin2011, national real estate loans amounted to10.73yuan, an increase of13.9%. Thereal estate developers is in low own fond proportion. China's real estate developmentand construction, investment the majority of the lack of funds, according to statistics,about80%of China's real estate development funds is directly or indirectly was givenby the bank, and amounts to90%individuals buy a house people through mortgageloan. This means that the real estate market is in the most risk on financial institutions,making China's real estate finance facing higher financial risk; the three is theCommercial Bank of excessive competition. The individual housing loan is still theasset quality of banks. In order to gain more market share, some commercial banktake alternative, disguised or illegal practices, reduce loan standards, reduceexamination steps, relax the authenticity verification, affect the safety of bank assets.With China's real estate and financial becoming closely linked, some problemsemerged: the price of real estate rise rapidly, bubble degree is higher, the real estate ofour country depended financial highly, the accumulation of a large number offinancial risk. China's financial stability and security is threated.Once the real estatebubble burst, China's real estate market will be a serious recession, and the financialindustry will appear problem, our entire financial stability will be destroyed,threatening the security of national economy.
From the point of view of dynamic general equilibrium, this article attempts totake the real estate、finance together, the model included a real estate, enterprise, household, financial institutions, government, analysis of China's real estate andfinancial relations and economic fluctuations on the impact of real estate. Throughreal estate mortgage loans, housing purchase housing Shoufu loan credit constraints,financial credit to real estate and macroscopical economy, the financial acceleratoreffect on real estate lending rate determine, central bank credit supply and currencyissuing to simulate the real estate and china’s ecomony. The research contents andmethods mainly include the following four aspects:
1) Credit constraint, real estate and macroscopical economic simulation.We carrythe real estate credit constraint to the economy, we assume that the enterprises andhouseholds will be faced to capital shortage situation, enterprises need mortgage theirreal estate to obtain credit funds, through Shoufu housing loans ordinary household topurchase, in this a process, whether business or household, both break through thelimitations of funds and expanded its investment and consumption ability, making thereal estate through financial participation into the economy, credit constraint enlargedthe economic fluctuations.
2) The financial accelerator mechanism of real estate and macroscopicaleconomic simulation. The enterprises and households are heterogeneous in Economy,due to individual faces different risks, when they borrow from a bank, bank lendingon different rates, led to its economy in the face of external changes will occurdifferent reaction, the real estate lending process through the financial acceleratorresponse.
3) The real estate bank credit on the macroeconomic impact simulation. In ourcountry, the real estate credit share in bank lending volume proportion is bigger, thereal estate investment, purchase, sales fluctuations through the credit transmission,the impact on the economy is increasingly apparent, bank credit and loan interest ratefluctuation to influence including real estate and macroscopical economy, this is usthe main problems.
4) The central bank monetary shocks, real estate and macroscopical economy interactive simulation. China is a country with governmental dominant economy, thecentral bank has an important role on the government's monetary policy, the centralbank controls the issuance of currency and the amount of credit in the economy,commercial bank’s loan interest rate conctrolled by the central bank, The role of thecentral bank introducing, we can analysis our country economy fluctuant cause offormation, find out the real estate and the monetary policy of the relation.
We find that: the real estate rigid with the sudden increase in demand on theeconomy is an adverse impact, impact pushed up housing prices, attracted a largenumber of resources to real estate, caused economy borrowing resources from theproduction areas to the ordinary household, large credit funds into the unproductiveareas, blow to the economy. Technology shocks to the real estate price is the impetus,and impact of technology on economic has a lasting impetus, the inflation rate in caseof a shock exhibited a lower level. Inflation has great harm to economy, output,investment, real estate consumption variables such as affected by rising inflationimpact significantly decreased, longer duration. Increased spending for investment,capital stock, outputs are obvious stimulation effect, achieve the growth process, butthe cycle is very long. The economic explanation for most of the two factors is thecentral bank deposit reserve rate and inflation, becomes the entire model variancedecomposition of the main explanation.
The paper's innovation mainly has three: Firstly, real estate is introduced tomacroeconomic model. Real estate has multiple attributes, it make the real estate havea different role in the whole economy, analysis the action of real estate in the ineconomy. Secondly, analyse real estate and financial relationships in the macroscopiceconomy, credit restraint mechanism amplify the real estate investment andconsumption, the financial accelerator influence the real estate lending rate,commercial bank credit impact the real estate investment and economic fluctuation,the Central Bank’s interest rate and credit amount control economy influence. Fromthis four aspects, the relation of the real estate and macroscopical economic isanalysised. Thirdly, the DSGE method is applied in china. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) is one of the microeconomic foundation ofmacroeconomic models, can be observed throughout the economic system in theexternal shock variables after the changes, but also to the welfare analysis, thismethod is rarely used in China, but the combination of real estate are not many, thisarticle in this respect is a kind of exploration.
引文
2Piazzesi,Schneider and Tuzel(2007)、Iacoviello(2003)
5于健源，博士论文：中国房地产市场调控研究，上海：上海社科院，2006年
17参见《公司财务原理》，吴立范，周天芸著，机械工业出版社，2010年版。
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