基于供需意愿的我国农机保险模式研究
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摘要
农机保险作为一种风险管理措施,是保证农业生产顺利进行,保障农业生产者财产安全和社会稳定的重要手段。目前,我国农机保险处于试点时期。试点地区取得的成绩,使得各级政府对农机保险在减少农户风险损失和保障安全生产方面发挥的重要作用日益重视。农业部和各地方政府都提出要积极发展农机保险,但现在面临的问题是,农机保险究竟应该采取什么模式?是全国推广一种模式还是根据各省实际情况采取多种模式?保险模式的缺失已成为制约农机保险发展的基本问题,采取何种模式发展农机保险也是各地政府部门关心的问题。因此,对农机保险模式的研究成为迫切需要。基于这一背景,本文在对农机保险参与主体供给与需求意愿进行分析的基础上,构建适合我国国情的农机保险模式。
本文首先对国内外农机保险现状和模式进行了分析和总结。其次,建立农户农机保险需求意愿Logistic回归模型分析影响农户需求意愿的因素。运用CVM方法调查农户对农机保险的支付意愿并测算农户的平均支付意愿,通过COX比例风险模型分析农户支付意愿影响因素。第三,利用DEA方法研究保险公司的经营效率,分析了保险公司供给能力,进一步测算了农机保险供给与需求之间的差距,分析了保险公司供给不足的原因。第四,从经济学和管理学的角度分析农机保险参与主体的行为,对参与主体进行博弈分析,并研究了农机保险长期稳定发展的主体合作条件,在此基础上,提出政府在农机保险中应起的作用。第五,建立政府主导下的多元化经营主体参与的农机保险模式,并从组织体系、经营主体、补贴机制三个方面对模式进行了构建。最后,提出农机保险模式保障措施。
本文的主要研究结论包括：(1)国外农机保险大多属于农业保险范畴,各国政府在农机保险发展中都发挥着积极作用,为农机保险提供法律支持、保费和经营管理费补贴。(2)我国农机保险试点地区的模式有政府主导下专业保险公司经营模式、政府扶持下商业保险公司模式和政府支持下互助保险模式,三种模式各有优缺点,从目前的发展情况来看,政府主导下专业保险公司经营模式在运行效率、运行成本和运行效果方面较好。(3)农户家庭收入、农机保险重要性、农户受教育程度、政府的保费补贴、对外作业面积是影响农户需求意愿的重要因素。农户对农机保险的支付意愿较低,影响支付意愿的因素主要是农户家庭收入、农机事故影响程度和对农机风险重要性的认知程度。(4)涉及农机保险的保险公司经营效率较低,农机保险供给与需求之间存在差距,供给不足。(5)农机保险参与主体三方合作的最优策略是：农户投保农机保险,保险公司经营农机保险,政府对农机保险进行补贴。(6)我国应采取“政府主导下的多元化经营主体参与的农机保险模式”。
Agricultural machine insurance as a risk management measures, which can ensure agricultural production run smoothly and guarantee social stability. At present, China's agricultural machinery insurance in the pilot period, the achievements of the pilot areas make the government gradually pay attention to the important role of agricultural machine insurance, which in reduce the farmer's loss and ensure production safety. Ministry of agriculture of the people's republic of china and various regions are put forward to develop agricultural machine insurance, but the problem is agricultural machine insurance should take one mode for the whole country or take a variety of modes for provinces. The lack of insurance mode has a basic problem to restrict the development of agricultural machine insurance. So, it is an urgent need to research on agricultural machine insurance mode. Just under this background, this paper constructs an agricultural machine insurance mode accord with our national condition, which is based on participant supply and willingness of demand.
Firstly, this paper summarized and analyzed agricultural machine insurance status and mode at home and abroad. Secondly, it is established Logistic regression model and analyzed influence factors of farmers'demand willingness. Using CVM to investigate the famers willingness to pay for agricultural machine insurance and calculate the average willingness to pay, and analyzed the influence factors of farmers willingness to pay by COX proportional hazard model. Thirdly, using DEA method to study the operating efficiency of the insurance companies, in addition analyzed its supply capacity, and measured the gap between supply and demand of agricultural machine insurance, at last analyzed the reasons for the shortage to supply. Fourthly, analyzed the behavior of participant from the perspective of economics and management science, and made a game analysis to participants, which to studied the participant cooperation condition of the long-term stable development of the agricultural machinery insurance. On this basis, the paper put forward the role of government in agricultural machine insurance. Fifthly, Establish a government-led diversified agricultural machine insurance mode, and from three aspects of organization system, management main body and subsidy mechanism to build it. Finally, proposed supporting measures to agricultural machine insurance mode.
The main conclusion includes:(1) Most of foreign agricultural machinery insurance belongs to agricultural insurance. Governments have played a positive role in providing legal support, management fee and premium subsidies to agricultural machinery insurance.(2)The pilot modes in China include professional insurance company management mode under the government-led, commercial insurance company management mode under the government support, and mutual insurance mode. Three modes have advantages and disadvantages, but from the current pilot development, the first mode is better in efficiency, costs and operating effect.(3)Farmers income, agricultural machinery insurance importance, farmers educational level, premium subsidies, agricultural machinery working areas are important factors affecting farmers'willingness. Farmers' willingness to pay for agricultural machinery insurance was low, in addition, family income, the impact of agricultural machinery accident and the cognition of the importance of agricultural machinery risk are main factors affected willingness to pay.(4)Insurance companies operating efficiency was low.There was a gap between supply and demand of agricultural machinery insurance, and was a shortage of supply.(5)The optimal strategy of cooperation is farmers participating in, insurance company underwrite insurance, and government support for agricultural machinery insurance.(6) China should adopt the "diversified business entities under the guidance of the government to participate in the agricultural machine insurance mode".
本文首先对国内外农机保险现状和模式进行了分析和总结。其次,建立农户农机保险需求意愿Logistic回归模型分析影响农户需求意愿的因素。运用CVM方法调查农户对农机保险的支付意愿并测算农户的平均支付意愿,通过COX比例风险模型分析农户支付意愿影响因素。第三,利用DEA方法研究保险公司的经营效率,分析了保险公司供给能力,进一步测算了农机保险供给与需求之间的差距,分析了保险公司供给不足的原因。第四,从经济学和管理学的角度分析农机保险参与主体的行为,对参与主体进行博弈分析,并研究了农机保险长期稳定发展的主体合作条件,在此基础上,提出政府在农机保险中应起的作用。第五,建立政府主导下的多元化经营主体参与的农机保险模式,并从组织体系、经营主体、补贴机制三个方面对模式进行了构建。最后,提出农机保险模式保障措施。
本文的主要研究结论包括：(1)国外农机保险大多属于农业保险范畴,各国政府在农机保险发展中都发挥着积极作用,为农机保险提供法律支持、保费和经营管理费补贴。(2)我国农机保险试点地区的模式有政府主导下专业保险公司经营模式、政府扶持下商业保险公司模式和政府支持下互助保险模式,三种模式各有优缺点,从目前的发展情况来看,政府主导下专业保险公司经营模式在运行效率、运行成本和运行效果方面较好。(3)农户家庭收入、农机保险重要性、农户受教育程度、政府的保费补贴、对外作业面积是影响农户需求意愿的重要因素。农户对农机保险的支付意愿较低,影响支付意愿的因素主要是农户家庭收入、农机事故影响程度和对农机风险重要性的认知程度。(4)涉及农机保险的保险公司经营效率较低,农机保险供给与需求之间存在差距,供给不足。(5)农机保险参与主体三方合作的最优策略是：农户投保农机保险,保险公司经营农机保险,政府对农机保险进行补贴。(6)我国应采取“政府主导下的多元化经营主体参与的农机保险模式”。
Agricultural machine insurance as a risk management measures, which can ensure agricultural production run smoothly and guarantee social stability. At present, China's agricultural machinery insurance in the pilot period, the achievements of the pilot areas make the government gradually pay attention to the important role of agricultural machine insurance, which in reduce the farmer's loss and ensure production safety. Ministry of agriculture of the people's republic of china and various regions are put forward to develop agricultural machine insurance, but the problem is agricultural machine insurance should take one mode for the whole country or take a variety of modes for provinces. The lack of insurance mode has a basic problem to restrict the development of agricultural machine insurance. So, it is an urgent need to research on agricultural machine insurance mode. Just under this background, this paper constructs an agricultural machine insurance mode accord with our national condition, which is based on participant supply and willingness of demand.
Firstly, this paper summarized and analyzed agricultural machine insurance status and mode at home and abroad. Secondly, it is established Logistic regression model and analyzed influence factors of farmers'demand willingness. Using CVM to investigate the famers willingness to pay for agricultural machine insurance and calculate the average willingness to pay, and analyzed the influence factors of farmers willingness to pay by COX proportional hazard model. Thirdly, using DEA method to study the operating efficiency of the insurance companies, in addition analyzed its supply capacity, and measured the gap between supply and demand of agricultural machine insurance, at last analyzed the reasons for the shortage to supply. Fourthly, analyzed the behavior of participant from the perspective of economics and management science, and made a game analysis to participants, which to studied the participant cooperation condition of the long-term stable development of the agricultural machinery insurance. On this basis, the paper put forward the role of government in agricultural machine insurance. Fifthly, Establish a government-led diversified agricultural machine insurance mode, and from three aspects of organization system, management main body and subsidy mechanism to build it. Finally, proposed supporting measures to agricultural machine insurance mode.
The main conclusion includes:(1) Most of foreign agricultural machinery insurance belongs to agricultural insurance. Governments have played a positive role in providing legal support, management fee and premium subsidies to agricultural machinery insurance.(2)The pilot modes in China include professional insurance company management mode under the government-led, commercial insurance company management mode under the government support, and mutual insurance mode. Three modes have advantages and disadvantages, but from the current pilot development, the first mode is better in efficiency, costs and operating effect.(3)Farmers income, agricultural machinery insurance importance, farmers educational level, premium subsidies, agricultural machinery working areas are important factors affecting farmers'willingness. Farmers' willingness to pay for agricultural machinery insurance was low, in addition, family income, the impact of agricultural machinery accident and the cognition of the importance of agricultural machinery risk are main factors affected willingness to pay.(4)Insurance companies operating efficiency was low.There was a gap between supply and demand of agricultural machinery insurance, and was a shortage of supply.(5)The optimal strategy of cooperation is farmers participating in, insurance company underwrite insurance, and government support for agricultural machinery insurance.(6) China should adopt the "diversified business entities under the guidance of the government to participate in the agricultural machine insurance mode".
引文
1 资料来源：全国农业机械化统计年报(历年),农业部农业机械化管理司
2 资料来源：农业部办公厅关于2012年农机事故情况的通报(农办机[2013]6号)
1 数据来源于《2012年全国农业机械化统计年报》农业部农业机械化管理司
1 选择标准依据王济川、郭志刚《Logistic回归模型——方法与应用》中选用的标准。
1 数据来源于2012年《中国保险年鉴》
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2 资料来源：农业部办公厅关于2012年农机事故情况的通报(农办机[2013]6号)
1 数据来源于《2012年全国农业机械化统计年报》农业部农业机械化管理司
1 选择标准依据王济川、郭志刚《Logistic回归模型——方法与应用》中选用的标准。
1 数据来源于2012年《中国保险年鉴》
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