摘要
能源、环境和经济是人类社会发展的三要素,他们互相影响,彼此制约共同构成了人类经济社会发展的大系统。能源是推动经济社会发展必不可少的源动力,方面,经济的增长离不开能源的支持,即能源促进了经济的增长,另一方面,能源的可持续发展必须以经济增长为前提条件。而人类在经济发展的过程中,往往忽视了它们之间协调发展的关系,总是顾此失彼。今天的中国,经济实现了持续30多年的快速增长,虽然不断为人们提供了丰富的物质和精神文化产品,但环境污染、生态破坏、资源匮乏等问题日益严重。一些地方政府将经济发展简单地理解为GDP增长,单纯地依靠投入大规模生产要素以获取经济的高速增长,造成资源浪费严重,环境污染惊人。但是,根据发达国家的经验,实现经济社会可持续发展事关我国的生存与发展。因此,我国于1992年正式向联合国环境与发展大会提交了《中华人民共和国环境与发展报告》,明确提出了实现可持续发展的观点,此后,我国在部署各项工作时都把可持续发展作为开展工作的重要指导方针和战略目标。为了分析我国能源消费与环境减排之间的具体关系,提出能源结构与电源结构优化的具体方法和途径,本文主要开展了以下几方面的研究：
(1)分析了北京市能源消费现状、污染物排放现状及两者之间的相互关系,结合国内外关于能源替代交易研究成果,提出了能源替代优化途径,既大力开展电能替代一次能源交易、用户参与电能替代交易和清洁能源参与火电替代交易和区域间电能替代交易。
(2)为了把握能源消费与环境减排间的相关关系,构建了北京市能源消费与环境减排系统动力学分析模型,分析了能源消费与污染物排放之间间的因果关系,构建了流量存量图,应用往年历史数据检验所提模型的真实性和有效性,对北京市环境减排目标下能源消费与环境减排的关系进行系统仿真,并设定了不同的发展情景对所得结果进行敏感性分析。
(3)引入峰谷分时电价,构建了基于峰谷分时电价下的风火电节能调度优化抹模型；然后,构建了风电、抽水蓄能电站联合运行替代火电交易二阶段优化模型,并应用二进制粒子群算法进行模型求解；最后,提出了分布式能源发电替代传统火电交易优化模型并进行了相应的算例分析。
(4)在区域间电能替代交易基本理论的基础上,提出了基于改进粗糙集法的区域发电效益评价模型,对比分析了不同区域的发电效益,并引入CVaR方法,分析了不同风险态度和环境减排压力对区域间电能替代交易的影响和比较了核心法和Shapley值法在电能替代交易利润分配方面的适用性。
Energy, environment and economy are the three elements of social development. They constitute a huge system of economic and social development by influencing and restricting each other. Energy is the source power and it is essential to promote economic and social development. On the one hand, the economic growth need the support from energy, scilicet, energy promote the growth of the economic. On the other hand, the prerequisite of sustainable energy development must be the economic growth. In the process of economic development, people tend to ignore the harmonious development relationship between them, always lose one of them. Now, China's economy has sustained rapid growth in30years. Though provide people with thriving material and spiritual cultural products continuously, some questions more and more serious, for instance, environmental pollution, ecological damage, lack of resources. Some local governments understand the growth of economic just is the development of GDP. They get rapid economic growth simply rely on putting in mass production factors, it causes waste of resources and environment pollution seriously. However, based on the experience of developed countries, to achieve sustainable economic and social development is related to the survival and development of our country. Therefore, China formally submitted a "People's Republic of China on Environment and Development report" to the UN Conference on Environment and Development in1992. The report clearly put forward the view to achieve sustainable development. Hence, sustainable development will be an important guiding principles and strategic objectives of the work when our country disposes every work. In order to analyze the specific relationship between China's energy consumption and environmental emissions and propose specific methods and approaches to optimize the energy structure and the power structure, the paper carried out the research of the following aspects:
(l)Analyze Beijing's status of energy consumption and emissions and the relationship between them. Propose optimization ways of alternative energy by combined with domestic and international research on alternative energy trading. Our country should launch alternative energy in primary energy trading, users participating in alternative energy trading; clean Energy to participate in the thermal power alternative trading and inter-regional energy alternative trading.
(2)In order to grasp the relationship between energy consumption and environmental emissions, we construct system dynamics model of Beijing energy consumption and environmental emissions, and we analyze the causal relationship between energy consumption and pollutant emissions. We also construct flow stock diagram. We apply the authenticity and validity of the proposed model in previous years of historical data inspection. We carry out the system simulation to the relationship between energy consumption and environmental emissions under emission reduction targets of Beijing. We also carry out sensitivity analysis to the results of different development scenarios.
(3)We construct wind power and thermal power energy-efficient scheduling optimization model based on time-of-use price by introducing time-of-use price. Then, we construct two-stage optimization model of alternative thermal power trading by joint operation between wind power and pumped storage power station and we solve the model by applying binary particle swarm optimization. Finally, we propose distributed energy generation alternative to traditional thermal power trading optimization model and carry out the corresponding analysis of examples.
(4)We propose regional power generation efficiency evaluation model based on improved rough set on the basis of inter-regional energy alternative trading basic theory. We compare analysis of power generation efficiency in different regions and analyze the impact of different venture attitudes and environmental emissions pressure on the regional energy alternative transaction and compare the applicability of core method and Shapley value method.in the aspect of alternative energy trading profit distribution.
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