摘要
煤炭是我国国民经济运行中的重要能源,在我国的能源消费中,煤炭的消费量居首位。我国是煤炭的生产大国和消费大国,煤炭资源分布、生产的地域性特点与消费区域分布特点,决定了我国“西煤东运,北煤南运”的运输格局。我国煤炭运输的方式是典型的铁海联运的集疏运方式。受铁路运输能力的限制,大量南下的煤炭不得不采用水陆联运的运输方案。即通过铁路把煤炭运送到北方港口,再装船南运,进而形成了一个煤炭集疏运网络系统。随着中国经济的持续发展,我国煤炭运输量呈不断上升态势,而港口装卸能力则受港口建设规模的限制,从而使港口成为煤炭集疏运网络系统中的瓶颈。因此,在集疏运环境下如何科学合理的预测煤炭港口吞吐量的变化；如何优化煤炭海上运输与陆地运输的网络链接枢纽；如何对煤炭港口的中转、转装和散装场所等资源进行优化,以提高港口转运的效率,适应煤炭运输量持续增长的要求；同时在港口资源紧张时,如何选择对港口目前、未来的收益和发展产生较大影响的服务对象,以上这些都成为集疏运环境下煤炭港口网络优化和运营策略研究的关键问题。
根据上述分析,本文对煤炭港口吞吐量预测模型、煤炭海上运输与陆地运输的网络链接枢纽的优化模型、煤炭港口内部传输工艺路径的选择问题以及对港口运营影响重大的大客户识别指标体系等展开研究,具体研究内容包括以下几个方面：
(1)合理可靠的煤炭港口吞吐量的预测结果是煤炭港口集疏运网络优化方案的前提与关键。本文提出了基于自适应粒子群算法对LSSVM的参数优化选择的最小二乘支持向量机的煤炭港口吞吐量预测模型。并通过对我国煤炭港口吞吐量的实例分析检验APSO-LSSVM模型的科学性和合理性。
(2)根据煤炭的整个物流过程,即从煤炭原产地经由港口最终到达目的地整个运输过程中,通过对该过程中各节点间的运输距离、节点处的最大通过能力以及未来港口的煤炭需求量进行研究,建立了基于CPM的煤炭集疏运网络下的经由港口的最短路径运输模型。
(3)分析煤炭在港口内部传输过程中存在的问题。通过分析发现各作业之间存在着各种最小,甚至最大时间约束关系,从而采用了包含以上各种时间约束关系的GPRs网络进行分析。在GPRs网络理论的基础上,建立了煤炭在港传输路径选择模型,为煤炭在港传输路径的选择提供了理论依据,并达到优化煤炭在港口内部的传输路径,提高煤炭在港周转率和设备利用率,以及提高了港口综合竞争力的效果。
(4)对集疏运环境下的现代煤炭港口的运营特点入手,通过引入客户关系管理的相关理论,进而建立集疏运环境下的煤炭港口客户价值评价体系,最后得出基于集疏运环境下煤炭港口大客户识别指标体系。
对上述研究内容的深入探讨,主要实现通过各种集疏运方式合理的完成港口煤炭的集结和疏散,有利于缓解港口城市的交通压力,同时也对综合运输系统的完善和可持续发展研究具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
Coal is vitally important energy to China's economy. And China is the most coal dependent major country in the world. Due to China's energy structure and coal resources distribution, in order to accomplish coal transportation annual supply task, most of coal was transported from western coal mine shipping to the east electricity plant and northern coal shipping to the south through port:"western coal shipped east, north south" transportation pattern. China's coal transportation mode is a typical rail-sea transportation. Due to the limitation of railway transport capacity, a large number of south coal need to adopt the amphibious transportation scheme. The coal shipped to the port in the north, through the railway and then shipped south, thus formed a coal transportation network system. With the increase of the port throughput, people gradually have realized that the port internal logistics operation efficiency is an important factor for port development. Especially the goods internal efficient transmission in port, directly affect the port yard inventory and ship waiting, etc., so as to influence the overall port operation efficiency.
According to the above analysis, in this paper, the coal port throughput prediction model, the coal port transmission path choice and provide theoretical basis for the port transmission path optimization in the internal port, so as to achieve the purpose of improving port turnover. The specific research contents include the following aspects:
(1) Reasonable and reliable coal port throughput prediction result is the premise and the key in coal port transportation network optimization scheme. In this paper, based on adaptive particle swarm algorithm to optimize the parameters of LSSVM choice of least squares support vector machine (SVM) coal port throughput prediction model.
(2) According to the process of coal logistics, that is, from coal via the port of origin to destination throughout the transportation process, in the process of the transportation distance between each node, the node's biggest port through capacity and future demand for coal, based on CPM coal transportation network is proposed through the ports of the shortest path transportation model.
(3) Analysis of coal internal problems that exist in the transmission process in the coal port. Through the analysis found that the work between the various minimum, even the largest time constraint relations, thus using the above contains various time constraint relation of GPRs network is analyzed. On the basis of the theory of GPRs network, the establishment of the coal transport route choice model, in port for coal provides theoretical evidence for the selection of transmission path in port, and to optimize the coal at the port within the transmission path, improve the utilization rate of coal turnover in port and equipment as well as the effect of improving the comprehensive competitiveness of the port.
(4) Based on the operational characteristics of modern coal port transportation environment, through the theory of customer relationship management (CRM), and then establish the transportation environment of coal port of customer value evaluation system, finally it is concluded that coal port big customer recognition based on transportation environment index system.
For the further research of the above content, the main implementation of coal transport, in order to alleviate the pressure of the traffic in the port city. And this research has important theory value and practical significance.
引文
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