摘要
欧元区主权债务危机似乎成了欧元研究的分水岭。危机爆发之前,学者们将欧元区作为最优货币区理论的最佳实践结果,通过其运行数据来说明单一货币对货币区的促进作用。然而,危机爆发后,对欧元区的悲观态度几乎立即取代了之前的乐观态度。认为欧元的实验已宣告失败,欧元区成员国间难以弥合的经济差距会使欧元区最终走向解体,认为欧盟已衰落的观点比比皆是。
实际上,主权债务危机并没有能够阻止欧元区的扩大进程,爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚分别在危机中和危机平息后加入欧元区,立陶宛则计划于2015年加入。可见,欧元区的吸引力并没有因债务危机而明显下降。
那么,应该如何客观的理解欧元区主权债务危机对欧元区的影响,欧元区在今后的运行中又如何维持平稳运行,欧元区的发展前景如何,本文将围绕这些问题展开研究。本文认为,应将欧元区主权债务危机置于欧洲一体化的进程中考虑,而债务危机的本质应从最优货币区理论的深度去探索。
本文首先通过对最优货币区理论的梳理,和欧元同最优货币区理论关系的分析,得出单一货币区收益大于成本的条件,即货币区稳定运行的条件,是要么成员国间经济对称以减少不对称冲击,要么建立缓冲机制以完成必要的宏观经济调整进而应对不对称冲击。在此基础上,本文对欧元区主权债务危机进行回顾,指出债务危机的本质是主权国家组成的单一货币区没有满足上述成本大于收益的条件,经济趋同性不足导致欧元区遭受不对称冲击,劳动力流动有限和缺乏财政转移使其无法完成宏观调整,导致债务危机不断蔓延和升级。接下来的实证检验从内生性趋同效应的角度验证了趋同性不足的判断。作为趋同性不足的后果,本文随后分析了不对称冲击对欧元区运行的影响,并运用VAR模型对金融危机给欧元区造成的不对称冲击进行了实证检验,分析了外部冲击下成员国不对称反应导致货币区运行成本放大并陷入危机的机理。最后,通过对财政一体化和银行业联盟的分析,本文指出欧盟进行的政策调整有利于欧元区的平稳运行,在改革驱动和内生趋同的共同作用下,随着欧元区不断靠近最优货币区的目标,其运行成本会下降。
The research on euro seems to be divided by the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis. Before the crisis, eurozone was the best practice of the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory in most researches, and the economic data of eurozone are often used to prove the promotion of single currency to the development of a currency area. However, after the breakout of the crisis, the previous optimism was almost immediately replaced by the opposite. The arguments that the experiment of euro has failed, that the eurozone is doomed to break up with the everlasting economic gaps between its member countries, and that the EU has declined as a power in the world, can be found everywhere.
In fact, eurozone's enlargement was not stopped by the sovereign debt crisis. Estonia has entered into eurozone within the crisis, Latvia did so after the crisis was eased, and Lithuania plans to enter in2015. So, the crisis has failed to cause apparent decline of eurozone's attraction.
So, the questions of how to understand objectively the impact of the sovereign debt crisis to eurozone, how to maintain smooth running of eurozone after the crisis, and what is the future of eurozone, will be focused in the research of this paper., which insist that we should consider the sovereign debt crisis while placing it into the process of European integration, and explore the essence of the crisis from the depth of the OCA theory.
With the re-classifying of the OCA theory, and analyzing the relationship between euro and the OCA theory, the paper holds that if a single currency area wants to have its benefits exceed its costs, i.e., running smoothly, it needs to meet the following conditions, either its members have symmetric economics to reduce asymmetric shocks, or the absorbing mechanism is established to cope with asymmetric shocks. On this basis, the paper reviewed the process of the sovereign debt crisis, pointing out that the essence of the crisis is that the single currency area of eurozone consisting of sovereign countries failed to meet the above-mentioned conditions. In eurozone, the insufficient economic convergence leading to asymmetric shocks, together with the limited labor mobility and the lack of fiscal transfer resulting in the failure of macro adjustments, has given rise to the contagion and upgrading of the crisis. The following empirical test verified the judgment of insufficient economic convergence from the endogenous convergence effect. As its consequence, the paper then analyzed the impact of asymmetric shocks to eurozone, using VAR models to test the asymmetric shocks to eurozone brought about by the international financial crisis, and analyzing the mechanism that under the outside shocks, the asymmetric response of member countries caused tremendous cost increasing and finally had eurozone trapped into crisis. Finally, with analysis of fiscal integration and banking union, the paper holds that the policy adjustments in EU are helpful to the smooth running of eurozone. Driven by reforms and endogenous convergence effect, the eurozone will keep approaching the target of optimum currency area, and its running cost will get down gradually.
引文
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1 本章主要内容已整理发表,详见姜云飞.债务危机背景下欧盟财政一体化的进展与挑战[J].世界经济研究.2013(4).
1 缪晓娟.欧盟财政预算的来源和分配[EB\OL].新华网,2013/10/24.http://news.xinhuanet.com/worid/2012-11/22/c_123989967.htm.
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1 姚蒙等.“倒台病毒”缠绕欧洲政权,频繁换届留下政治残局.环球时报,2012-5-9,第7版。
1 欧洲稳定机制是欧元区永久救助机制,旨在向融资困难、需要帮助的欧元区国家和银行提供资金支持。该机制由欧元区各国按比例出资,总计7000亿欧元,放贷能力为5000亿欧元。德国需提供1900亿欧元担保,其中220亿欧元以现金方式支付。欧洲稳定机制开始运转后,将取代计划运行到2013年中期的欧元区临时救助机制——欧洲金融稳定工具(EFSF)。
2 张正富,饶博：25个欧盟成员国正式签署“财政契约”,新华网,2012-3-2.http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2012-03/02/c_111596530.htm
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1 姜岩.巴罗佐呼吁欧盟各界支持“连接欧洲”计划[EB\OL].新华网,2012-10-3,http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2012-10/03/c_113275401.htm
2 张亮,刘歌.欧盟推出金融交易税.人民日报,2013-2-17,第3版.
1 严婷.欧元区考虑建立中央预算,财政联盟任重道远.第一财经日报,2012-9-27.
2 Martin Feldstein. Europ's empty fiscal compact. Project Syndicate,2012-2-27. http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-s-empty-fiscal-compact
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