摘要
海岸带以其丰富的自然资源和独特的地理位置成为人类活动的中心地带。但随着经济的高速发展和人口的迅速增长,海岸带生态系统受到的压力日益增大,资源衰竭、生态退化和环境污染等问题日益严重。传统的海岸带管理模式已不能有效解决当前海岸带面临的突出问题。生态系统方法作为当今国内外海岸带管理的前沿与热点,为海岸带综合管理提供了一种新方法和新思路。因此本文选择基于生态系统的海岸带综合管理为研究对象,系统地开展了理论、方法和实践应用研究,旨在为海岸带综合管理提供技术支撑,实现海岸带地区的可持续发展。
本文研究了基于生态系统的海岸带综合管理的理论基础,构建了海岸带生态系统综合管理模式,并以胶州湾为例进行了案例研究,取得如下主要成果:
1.在梳理国内外海岸带综合管理发展的基础上,总结了基于生态系统的海岸带综合管理的产生、发展及存在问题,融汇研究得出基于生态系统的海岸带综合管理的相关理论基础,包括海岸带复合生态系统理论、可持续发展理论、生态系统方法理论、政策科学理论和流域分析方法理论,提出了基于生态系统的海岸带综合管理遵循的基本原则。
2.根据研究目的和理论基础,构建了基于生态系统的海岸带综合管理的研究方法体系,由管理问题分析、管理目标确定、管理模型建立以及管理措施实施四部分组成,具体操作步骤为:研究范围界定、生态问题诊断、管理目标确定、生态系统综合评价、生态系统动力学模拟、管理策略优化和适应性管理机制。
3.将海洋环境数值模型、灰色预测、层次分析和优化方法相结合,构建了海岸带生态系统综合管理模型,由海岸带生态系统综合评价模型、海岸带生态系统动力学模型和海岸带综合管理策略优化模型三个子模型组成。这些模型通过管理目标和参数相互关联,共同服务于海岸带生态系统适应性管理机制的实施。
4.根据胶州湾生态系统的特征,利用Arcgis软件合理划定了胶州湾海岸带综合管理的范围,由流域-河口-海湾三部分组成。在变边界ECOM模型基础上,添加拉格朗日质点追踪模型,研究胶州湾的水交换特征,得出填海造地活动明显削弱胶州湾的水交换能力。通过胶州湾海岸带水交换特征、环境质量状况、陆域生态系统的初步诊断分析,确定了胶州湾海岸带综合管理的目标。
5.从陆域生态系统、海域生态系统、社会经济系统和管理调控系统四个方面建立了胶州湾海岸带生态系统综合评价指标体系,共包括25个指标。采用层次分析法对1988年、1995年、2001年、2003年、2005年和2007年胶州湾海岸带的生态系统状况进行了评价。结果表明1988-2007年胶州湾海岸带生态系统质量一直处于下降趋势,随着人类社会的不断进步,管理调控能力的增强,下降趋势逐渐变缓,但总的生态状况不容乐观。
6.根据建立的海岸带生态系统动力学模型,以2015年为规划管理年,预测了胶州湾的入海污染负荷,模拟了胶州湾的营养盐和浮游植物分布情况。结果表明,2015年胶州湾海域污染比2007年更加严重,湾中部以上区域的无机氮超过四类海水水质标准。胶州湾东北部和大沽河附近的无机氮和活性磷酸盐污染均比较严重,需要对其进行污染物削减和总量控制措施。
7.根据生态系统综合评价和生态系统动力学模拟结果,提出了包括水污染总量控制、生态恢复与保护以及渔业生态系统管理在内的胶州湾海岸带综合管理策略。针对胶州湾东北部无机氮污染较为严重的现状,建立了以方案总投资最少为目标,以环境容量和水质达标为约束条件的方案优化模型,得出在李村河和娄山河流域建立二级污水处理厂,墨水河流域实施中水回用的方案可以有效改善东北部的环境污染问题且总投资费用最小。
8.针对胶州湾海岸带的生态环境问题和综合管理现状,提出了建立胶州湾海岸带综合管理机构和生态补偿的海岸带综合管理机制,监督和保障海岸带综合管理措施的实施。并对胶州湾生态系统管理的不确定性因素进行了分析,提出了胶州湾海岸带的生态监测计划,建立了监测、评估、反馈调整的适应性管理机制。
Costal zones, as a heartland of human activties around the world, are characterized by multiple and plentiful natural resources, and special geographical locations. With the rapid growth of population and economy in coastal zones, the coastal ecosystem is brought to increasing pressures.The issues of resources exhaustion, ecological deterioration and environmental pollution have been getting worse. It is need to improve the existing coastal zone management and introduce a new management approach to solve these problems. As the frontier research issue, the ecosystem approach provides a new approach for the integrated coastal zone management (ICM). Therefore, it is very important theoretically and practically for ICM and sustainable development in coastal zone to study the integrated coastal zone management based ecosystem approach (EBICM), which can effectively improve the ability of the pollution treatment and management.
Combining ecosystem approach with traditional coastal management, the thesis presents a systematic study of the theorethical foundation for EBICM, and develops the methodologies and the management mode, and then the EBICM is applied practically on the coastal zone of Jiaozhou Bay (JZB). The following achievements are included in this paper.
1.The emergence development and existing problems of previous studies on EBICM is summarized based on the evolvement of ICM, then the theoretical basis for EBICM is analysed, including the complex ecosystem theory, sustainable development, ecosystem approach, police science and the watershed approach..
2. The methodological system of EBICM is developed in the guidance of the research objective and theoretical foundations, including diagnosis of ecosystem environmental problem, determination of management goals, building of management models and implementation of management. A practical detailed process for EBICM is given in this thesis, which includes defining the range of the management, fundamental data collection and analysis of ecological issues, goal setting, integrated ecosystem assessment of coastal zone, the ecosystem dynamics modeling of coastal zone, the optimization of management scheme, and adaptive management.
3. As the core of method research, the integrated model for EBICM is developed, include integrated ecosystem assessment model, ecosystem dynamic modeling and optimization modeling for management alternatives, which integrate the methods of marine environment numerical model, grey prediction, analytic hierarchy process with optimization. The model was connected with each other by the management goals and the parameters, which complemented for the implement of the adaptive management.
4. According to the characteristics of the JZB ecosystem, the range of the integrated management was defined based on the boundary watershed, which consists of three parts: watershed-estuary-bay. The water exchange capability in JZB was studied used the Lagrangian particle model based on ECOM with moving boundary and concluded that the land reclamation weaken the water exchange capacity. The objective of the integrated management was proposed depending on the preliminary analysis of the water exchange characteristics, the environmental quality conditions and watershed ecosystem.
5. The integrated ecosystem assessment system of 25 indicators for the coastal zone is established based on the influential factors which are divided into four subunits: coastal land subsystem, coastal waters subsystem, socio-economic subsystem and management regulation subsystem.Using the analytic hierarchy process, the ecosystem quality state of JZB coastal zone in the year 1988, 1995, 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007 is evaluation. The results showed that the ecosystem quality of JZB has been in a downward trend during the years of 1988-2007. With the development of the human society and the reinforcement management, the downward trend has been slowing down, but the ecosystem quality is not optimistic.
6. The ecosystem dynamics modeling of the coastal zone is developed, which is constructed by the socio-economic forecasting model, pollution loading model and ecosystem dynamics model of JZB. Taking 2015 as a planning management years, the pollution load into the JZB is predicted, and then the nutrients and phytoplankton distribution are simulated. The result show that the inorganic nitrogen pollution at the northeast of JZB and the Dugu eatuary is relatively serious, it is necessary to reduce their pollutants and implement pollution control measures.
7. The management measures about the total water pollution control, ecological restoration and protection, and ecosystem approach for fishery are brought out. Based on the fact that the northeast JZB was seriously polluted, the optimization modeling for management alternatives is built to optimize the management projects of the Licun River, Loushan River and Moshui River watershed, aiming at minimum treatment charge and with the requirement of environmental capacity and accessibility of water quality. The pollution control of secondary waterwater treatment in Licun River and Loushan River watershed and the sewage reuse is the prioritization scheme, which can improve the environmental pollution problem of the northeast JZB and minimize the total investment cost.
8. Depending on the ecological problems and the current management strategy, the management mechanism is proposed through the establishment of JZB integrated coastal zone management committee and the ecological compensation system so that the implementation of the management measures can be insured and supervised. Based on the complexity and uncertainty of the coastal zone ecosystem, the sustainable development of coastal zone would be achieved by the application of an adaptive ecosystem management process, continuous monitoring and quality evaluation of coastal zone ecosystem, and adjusting the integrated management objectives and measures.
引文
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