基于金融视角的中美经济关系问题研究
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摘要
1990年代以来,中美两国以不同的方式积极参与和推动了经济、金融全球化进程,并对国际分工和全球贸易格局产生了重大影响。然而,在这一过程中,中美经济关系日益失衡。中美经济关系失衡不仅体现在数量和结构上,而且还体现为相互依存关系的非对称性。中美经济关系失衡的本质为中美两国之间的商品—资本双循环。从中美经济关系失衡的成因来看,美元本位制所导致的“金融国家”与“贸易国家”这一格局决定了中美两国的经济和金融发展模式,并导致中美经济关系失衡。此外,中美两国的金融发展差异与中美金融之间的联系也都在一定程度上导致了两国经济关系的失衡。中美经济关系失衡的格局在短期内可以持续,但在长期内必须进行调整。全球金融危机的爆发对中美经济关系失衡产生了重大影响。在后危机时代,美联储的宽松货币政策及退出时机等一系列因素都将对中美经济关系失衡的调整产生影响。无论从贸易层面、投资层面还是从金融层面来看,中美经济关系失衡都对中国经济产生了重大影响。为此,中国应当积极转变和调整经济金融发展战略,以实现可持续发展。
Global economy changes rapidly since 1990s. China and the U.S., which is the fastest-growth developing country and the richest developed country in the world, has been the engine of world economic growth. However, the economic relation between the two countries has been more and more imbalanced. The imbalanced economic relation has also been the impetus and a vivid example of global imbalance, and it becomes much more complicated after the global financial crisis. As a matter of fact, the economic relation between the two countries has transformed from general bilateral relation of trade and investment into the relation between“Financial Country”and“Trade Country”. The factors and changes in the two countries’financial sector, which lead to the transformation, can explain the imbalanced economic relation to a great extent. So the research on the imbalance of economic relation between China and the U.S. has both theoretical and practical significance.
The dissertation contains seven chapters. The first chapter is introduction. In this chapter, background of the topic and theoretical and practical significance is elaborated, related literature is reviewed, the structure arrangement and research method is clarified, and the innovation and shortness is given.
The second chapter is the development and imbalance of the economic relation between China and the U.S. Since 1990s, the economic and financial globalization changes fast and has great impacts on global economy. The two countries involved in the process of globalization in different ways, which affected the international trade division significantly. The way China involved in the globalization can be concluded as: first, China has attracted more and more FDIs; second, China has become the famous“World Factory”which mainly produces manufactory products with low-added value; third, China has been a large economy which export a lot; fourth, China’s foreign reserves increases fast which makes China invest abroad. The way that the U.S. involved in the globalization can be concluded as: first, the upgrade of domestic industrial structure promote the global industry transfer and adjustment, and alter the global trade relations; second, the U.S. is one of the world's most important sources of FDI; third, the U.S. is the biggest importer in the world; finally, the U.S. enjoys the world's largest portfolio investment inflows due to dollar's key currency status and highly developed financial markets. In the process of participating in economic globalization, the Sino-U.S. bilateral trade and investment relations have become increasingly close. At the same time, the imbalance of Sino-U.S. economic relations has also been more and more severe. The imbalance of trade relations can be concluded as: the U.S. has accumulated large trade deficit with China, while China has accumulated huge trade surplus with the U.S. Further more, the interdependence of trade between the two countries is non-symmetry, which means that China highly relies on the export market of the U.S. while the latter doesn’t rely on China’s export heavily. The imbalance of investment between the two countries is mainly structural imbalance. On the one hand, the U.S. makes direct investments to China a lot, while China has a large number of U.S. securities investments. On the other hand, the U.S. securities investment of China concentrates in low-risk bonds and other financial assets, while the portfolio investment that the U.S. makes in China are mainly high-risk financial assets such as stock. The imbalance continues to strengthen China as the largest creditor nation to the U.S. and the U.S.’s position as the world's largest debtor. Moreover, the dependence between the two countries is non-symmetric. The nature of Sino-U.S. economic relation is the“capital-commodity”dual cycle.
The third chapter is the analysis of the reasons of Sino-U.S. economic relationship imbalance from the perspective of finance. The evolution of international monetary system contains Gold Standard, the Bretton Woods System and the Jamaica System or Dollar Standard. There is“center and periphery”pattern in each period. Under dollar standard, the U.S. is“Financial Country”who has financial hegemony. As a peripheral country, China has become the“Trade Country”. The Sino-U.S. economic relation have transformed from general bilateral trade and investment relation to the relation between a“Trade Country”and a“Financial Country”. This pattern is caused by dollar standard, and it determines the mode of Sino-US economic and financial development and result in the imbalance. More importantly, there is a self-reinforcing mechanism in the imbalance under dollar standard and it deactivates the traditional foreign exchange policy instrument. The financial development in China and the U.S. varies a lot. China is left behind in financial openness, financial structure and financial efficiency. The variance in financial development leads to saving-investment imbalance in the two countries, determines the positions in international industry division, and finally causes the Sino-U.S. trade imbalance. The variance in financial development affects the capital movement and causes the Sino-U.S. investment imbalance. Besides, the Sino-U.S. financial linkage leads to the imbalance too. The result of empirical research shows that the variance in financial development is positive linked with the Sino-U.S. economic imbalance, which means that the bigger the variance is, the severer the imbalance is.
The fourth chapter is the sustainability of Sino-U.S. economic imbalance. Dollar standard is the root of the imbalance, so the sustainability of dollar standard determines whether the imbalance can persist or not. Actually, dollar standard is the root of global liquidity glut and global financial turbulence. The liquidity caused by dollar standard has contagion effects on“Trade Countries”. The over innovation of financial market in the U.S. is also an important reason for global liquidity glut. Besides, dollar standard increase the global financial risks by aggravating global interest fluctuation and accelerating global capital flows. As a result, dollar standard also affect global economy negatively. In long term, the reform of international monetary system is an inexorable trend, which determines the unsustainability of dollar standard. But in short term, dollar standard can still persist. So the sustainability of Sino-U.S. economic imbalance can be concluded as: persist in short term but vanish in long term. The financial development mode of the U.S. in 1990s is typical self-reinforcing, and it determines that the financial development is unsustainable. After the global financial crisis, the U.S. will attach great importance to the development of real economic sector and shrink financial sector. Since 2005, the financial reform in China develops fast in the perspective of openness, structure, and efficiency. The trend will persist in future. So looking forward, the variance of financial development between the two countries is getting smaller and smaller, and this will rebalance the Sino-U.S. economic relation.
The fifth chapter is Sino-U.S. economic relation under the global financial crisis. The U.S. sub-prime crisis contains the following stages: outbreak, shortage of liquidity, credit crunch, and hit real economy. In September 2008, the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis evolved into the global financial crisis. U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy mistakes, and the resulting global economic imbalances caused by excess global liquidity, and the United States over the absence of financial innovation and financial supervision is the main reason for causing the crisis. In essence, the current round of global financial crisis is the result of excessive growth of virtual economies. The crises had a significant impact on the imbalance, and promote its change. First, the U.S. real economy recession led to an overall decline in import demand, leading to scale down its imports to China; Second, the U.S. government began to adjust and continue to use trade policy to restrict imports, China became the largest U.S. trade protectionism victim; it is also an opportunity to adjust China's investment structure; Finally, China's large dollar reserve assets is risking due to increased volatility in dollar exchange rate, and the Chinese monetary authority is bound to take active measures. In the post-crisis era, Sino-U.S. economic relation is affected by a number of factors and constraints: First, the Fed's loose monetary policy and the withdrawal time. Second, Sino-U.S. economic restructuring policy. On the one hand, China's policy of expanding domestic demand would be helpful to reduce the current account surplus; on the other hand, the level of U.S. consumer savings rate continued to decline and will continue to increase to some extent, reduce its current account deficit and reduce the dependence on foreign capital. Third, the current international monetary system reform. The United States will have to reform the international monetary system and other major issues, and listen more to developing countries; Finally, the accelerated process of internationalization of RMB. RMB internationalization process of accelerating the formation of the impact on the dollar standard system, and help alleviate the imbalance of Sino-US economic relations. However, it will be a long process.
Chapter six is the imbalance of Sino-U.S. economic relation and China’s transformation of economic and financial development policies. The imbalance affects China a lot. First, it delays China’s industry structure upgrading and aggravates trade frictions; Second, it strengthen the contradiction of real economy and virtual economy; Third, it disables China’s monetary policy and foreign reserve management policy, and leads to the politization of RMB’s exchange rate reform. This will enhance China’s economic structure adjustment. As a result, China should take active measures to transform economic and financial development strategies. From the perspective of economic development strategy changes: first, the government should change the current investment and export-led economic growth in the manner and speed up the social security system and steadily increase disposable income. Second, the change in the current low value-added processing and export mainly manufactured goods trade strategy, develop high-end manufacturing and services. Finally, positive adjustment and changes in the existing strategy of attracting investment and gradually expanding foreign direct investment. From the perspective of financial development changes: first, by improving the legal and regulatory systems and other measures to promote the development of capital markets. Second, speed up the RMB exchange rate reform, and accelerate the pace of domestic economic restructuring. At the same time, strengthen the U.S. strategic dialogue and cooperation, to reduce external pressure to reform, as the domestic economic restructuring for more time. Finally, develop currency exchange cooperation actively with neighboring countries, and promote the reform of domestic related fields to participate in East Asian monetary cooperation and the reform of the international monetary system and the construction of an offshore RMB market, etc.
Chapter seven is conclusion.
Global economy changes rapidly since 1990s. China and the U.S., which is the fastest-growth developing country and the richest developed country in the world, has been the engine of world economic growth. However, the economic relation between the two countries has been more and more imbalanced. The imbalanced economic relation has also been the impetus and a vivid example of global imbalance, and it becomes much more complicated after the global financial crisis. As a matter of fact, the economic relation between the two countries has transformed from general bilateral relation of trade and investment into the relation between“Financial Country”and“Trade Country”. The factors and changes in the two countries’financial sector, which lead to the transformation, can explain the imbalanced economic relation to a great extent. So the research on the imbalance of economic relation between China and the U.S. has both theoretical and practical significance.
The dissertation contains seven chapters. The first chapter is introduction. In this chapter, background of the topic and theoretical and practical significance is elaborated, related literature is reviewed, the structure arrangement and research method is clarified, and the innovation and shortness is given.
The second chapter is the development and imbalance of the economic relation between China and the U.S. Since 1990s, the economic and financial globalization changes fast and has great impacts on global economy. The two countries involved in the process of globalization in different ways, which affected the international trade division significantly. The way China involved in the globalization can be concluded as: first, China has attracted more and more FDIs; second, China has become the famous“World Factory”which mainly produces manufactory products with low-added value; third, China has been a large economy which export a lot; fourth, China’s foreign reserves increases fast which makes China invest abroad. The way that the U.S. involved in the globalization can be concluded as: first, the upgrade of domestic industrial structure promote the global industry transfer and adjustment, and alter the global trade relations; second, the U.S. is one of the world's most important sources of FDI; third, the U.S. is the biggest importer in the world; finally, the U.S. enjoys the world's largest portfolio investment inflows due to dollar's key currency status and highly developed financial markets. In the process of participating in economic globalization, the Sino-U.S. bilateral trade and investment relations have become increasingly close. At the same time, the imbalance of Sino-U.S. economic relations has also been more and more severe. The imbalance of trade relations can be concluded as: the U.S. has accumulated large trade deficit with China, while China has accumulated huge trade surplus with the U.S. Further more, the interdependence of trade between the two countries is non-symmetry, which means that China highly relies on the export market of the U.S. while the latter doesn’t rely on China’s export heavily. The imbalance of investment between the two countries is mainly structural imbalance. On the one hand, the U.S. makes direct investments to China a lot, while China has a large number of U.S. securities investments. On the other hand, the U.S. securities investment of China concentrates in low-risk bonds and other financial assets, while the portfolio investment that the U.S. makes in China are mainly high-risk financial assets such as stock. The imbalance continues to strengthen China as the largest creditor nation to the U.S. and the U.S.’s position as the world's largest debtor. Moreover, the dependence between the two countries is non-symmetric. The nature of Sino-U.S. economic relation is the“capital-commodity”dual cycle.
The third chapter is the analysis of the reasons of Sino-U.S. economic relationship imbalance from the perspective of finance. The evolution of international monetary system contains Gold Standard, the Bretton Woods System and the Jamaica System or Dollar Standard. There is“center and periphery”pattern in each period. Under dollar standard, the U.S. is“Financial Country”who has financial hegemony. As a peripheral country, China has become the“Trade Country”. The Sino-U.S. economic relation have transformed from general bilateral trade and investment relation to the relation between a“Trade Country”and a“Financial Country”. This pattern is caused by dollar standard, and it determines the mode of Sino-US economic and financial development and result in the imbalance. More importantly, there is a self-reinforcing mechanism in the imbalance under dollar standard and it deactivates the traditional foreign exchange policy instrument. The financial development in China and the U.S. varies a lot. China is left behind in financial openness, financial structure and financial efficiency. The variance in financial development leads to saving-investment imbalance in the two countries, determines the positions in international industry division, and finally causes the Sino-U.S. trade imbalance. The variance in financial development affects the capital movement and causes the Sino-U.S. investment imbalance. Besides, the Sino-U.S. financial linkage leads to the imbalance too. The result of empirical research shows that the variance in financial development is positive linked with the Sino-U.S. economic imbalance, which means that the bigger the variance is, the severer the imbalance is.
The fourth chapter is the sustainability of Sino-U.S. economic imbalance. Dollar standard is the root of the imbalance, so the sustainability of dollar standard determines whether the imbalance can persist or not. Actually, dollar standard is the root of global liquidity glut and global financial turbulence. The liquidity caused by dollar standard has contagion effects on“Trade Countries”. The over innovation of financial market in the U.S. is also an important reason for global liquidity glut. Besides, dollar standard increase the global financial risks by aggravating global interest fluctuation and accelerating global capital flows. As a result, dollar standard also affect global economy negatively. In long term, the reform of international monetary system is an inexorable trend, which determines the unsustainability of dollar standard. But in short term, dollar standard can still persist. So the sustainability of Sino-U.S. economic imbalance can be concluded as: persist in short term but vanish in long term. The financial development mode of the U.S. in 1990s is typical self-reinforcing, and it determines that the financial development is unsustainable. After the global financial crisis, the U.S. will attach great importance to the development of real economic sector and shrink financial sector. Since 2005, the financial reform in China develops fast in the perspective of openness, structure, and efficiency. The trend will persist in future. So looking forward, the variance of financial development between the two countries is getting smaller and smaller, and this will rebalance the Sino-U.S. economic relation.
The fifth chapter is Sino-U.S. economic relation under the global financial crisis. The U.S. sub-prime crisis contains the following stages: outbreak, shortage of liquidity, credit crunch, and hit real economy. In September 2008, the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis evolved into the global financial crisis. U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy mistakes, and the resulting global economic imbalances caused by excess global liquidity, and the United States over the absence of financial innovation and financial supervision is the main reason for causing the crisis. In essence, the current round of global financial crisis is the result of excessive growth of virtual economies. The crises had a significant impact on the imbalance, and promote its change. First, the U.S. real economy recession led to an overall decline in import demand, leading to scale down its imports to China; Second, the U.S. government began to adjust and continue to use trade policy to restrict imports, China became the largest U.S. trade protectionism victim; it is also an opportunity to adjust China's investment structure; Finally, China's large dollar reserve assets is risking due to increased volatility in dollar exchange rate, and the Chinese monetary authority is bound to take active measures. In the post-crisis era, Sino-U.S. economic relation is affected by a number of factors and constraints: First, the Fed's loose monetary policy and the withdrawal time. Second, Sino-U.S. economic restructuring policy. On the one hand, China's policy of expanding domestic demand would be helpful to reduce the current account surplus; on the other hand, the level of U.S. consumer savings rate continued to decline and will continue to increase to some extent, reduce its current account deficit and reduce the dependence on foreign capital. Third, the current international monetary system reform. The United States will have to reform the international monetary system and other major issues, and listen more to developing countries; Finally, the accelerated process of internationalization of RMB. RMB internationalization process of accelerating the formation of the impact on the dollar standard system, and help alleviate the imbalance of Sino-US economic relations. However, it will be a long process.
Chapter six is the imbalance of Sino-U.S. economic relation and China’s transformation of economic and financial development policies. The imbalance affects China a lot. First, it delays China’s industry structure upgrading and aggravates trade frictions; Second, it strengthen the contradiction of real economy and virtual economy; Third, it disables China’s monetary policy and foreign reserve management policy, and leads to the politization of RMB’s exchange rate reform. This will enhance China’s economic structure adjustment. As a result, China should take active measures to transform economic and financial development strategies. From the perspective of economic development strategy changes: first, the government should change the current investment and export-led economic growth in the manner and speed up the social security system and steadily increase disposable income. Second, the change in the current low value-added processing and export mainly manufactured goods trade strategy, develop high-end manufacturing and services. Finally, positive adjustment and changes in the existing strategy of attracting investment and gradually expanding foreign direct investment. From the perspective of financial development changes: first, by improving the legal and regulatory systems and other measures to promote the development of capital markets. Second, speed up the RMB exchange rate reform, and accelerate the pace of domestic economic restructuring. At the same time, strengthen the U.S. strategic dialogue and cooperation, to reduce external pressure to reform, as the domestic economic restructuring for more time. Finally, develop currency exchange cooperation actively with neighboring countries, and promote the reform of domestic related fields to participate in East Asian monetary cooperation and the reform of the international monetary system and the construction of an offshore RMB market, etc.
Chapter seven is conclusion.
引文
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[2] Morici, Peter.中国为何不愿重估人民币[N/OL].华尔街日报(中文网络版), http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20070628/opn102629.asp?source=email, 2007年6月28日.
[3] Ferguson, Niall and Moritz Schularick.“中美经济共生体”再认识[N].华尔街日报(中文版), http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080206/, 2007年2月6日.
[4] Slater, Joanna.美元继续享有特殊地位[N/OL].华尔街日报(中文网络版), http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081117/hrd104921.asp?source=NewSearch, 2008年11月17日.
①陈继勇,胡艺.知识经济时代与世界经济失衡问题的再认识[J].世界经济, 2007, 7.
②参见胡鞍钢.中美贸易和汇率问题的分析与建议[J].国际经济评论, 2005, 4.
①参见李若谷.双赢的中美经贸关系缘何被扭曲[J].世界经济, 2007, 9.
①Rajan, R. Global Current Account Imbalances: Hard Landing or Soft Landing [C]. The Credit Suisse First Boston Conference, Hong Kong, March 15, 2005.
①引自华民.世界经济失衡:概念、成因与中国的选择[J].吉林大学社会科学学报, 2007, 1.
②数据来源:联合国贸易和发展会议的相关数据库(http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=1584&lang=1.)。
①王国兴.中美战略经济对话:国际经济协调新框架[J].世界经济研究, 2007, 3.
①参见宋玉华,王玉华.中美战略经济对话机制:性质定位和作用[J].国际经济评论, 2007, 1.
①参见陈继勇,刘威.美中贸易的“外资引致逆差”问题研究[J].世界经济, 2006, 9.
①参见张明,覃东海.国际货币体系演进的资源流动分析[J].世界经济与政治, 2005, 12.
①Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts Landau, and Peter Garber. An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System [R]. NBER Working Paper, No. 9971, September 2003.
②参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.中美金融关系的动态演进[J].当代亚太, 2007, 11.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
②张明.为何中国央行仍在增持美国国债[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文No. 08076, 2008.
③参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
④据美国商务部报告,2008年9月美国对华贸易逆差从8月份的253.3亿美元扩大至277.7亿美元。引自《华尔街日报》(中文网络版),http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081113/BUS007985.asp?source=NewSearch,2008年11月13日。
①雷蒙德·戈德史密斯.金融结构与经济发展[M].上海:上海三联书店, 1994.
①受美国金融危机的影响,2008年美国银行总资产占GDP的比重上升至96.9%,而股票市值占GDP的比重则大幅下降至81.3%,债券总值占GDP的比重较为稳定,为212.3%。
②参见黄海洲.美元和人民币:何去何从? [J].国际经济评论, 2010, 2.
③参见Guariglia and Poncet (2006)。
④据IMF的数据统计,2002年中国银行业不良贷款占全部贷款的比重高达26%。随着国有商业银行逐步剥离不良贷款,2007年这一比重下降为6.2%,但仍高于美国银行业不良贷款占全部贷款的比重(1.4%)。
②朱民.全球经济失衡的调整及对中国的影响[J].国际经济评论, 2005, 1.
③项卫星,刘晓鑫.美国的借贷型经济增长模式及其对中国的影响[J].当代亚太, 2006, 2.
①引自雷达,赵勇.中美经济失衡的性质及调整:基于金融发展的视角[J].世界经济, 2009, 1.
①IMF. Assessing Global Financial Risks in Global Financial Stability Report [R]. September, 2006.
②参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
③Wolf, Martin. The New Capitalism [J]. Financial Times, 2007, 7.
④参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①IMF. Global Financial Stability Report: Containing Systemic Risks and Restoring Financial Soundness [R/OL]. http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2008/01/index.htm, April, 2008.
②张明,徐以升.全口径测算中国当前的热钱规模[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文No.0814, 2008.
③参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
②国际货币体系的历史演进证明,单一的主权国家货币充当主要的国际储备货币时,该主权货币本位制存续的条件主要包括:第一,国际储备货币的供给充足;第二,该主权国家的货币价值稳定;第三,该货币的发行国应维持与主要国际储备货币地位相称的经济、金融实力。参见项卫星、刘晓鑫(2009)。
③李晓,丁一兵.亚洲的超越:构建东亚区域货币体系与“人民币亚洲化”[M].当代中国出版社, 2006,第7页.
②参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①王达.中东欧转轨国家国有商业银行公司治理结构改革研究[D].长春:吉林大学经济学院, 2009.
资料来源:朱民.改变未来的金融危机[M].北京:中国金融出版社, 2009: 7.
①引自余永定.国际货币体系改革和中国外汇储备资产保值[J].国际经济评论, 2009, 3.
①如未来的世界中央银行的权利基础是什么?未来的货币体系能否完全独立于政治体制之外?参见黄益平.国际货币体系变迁与人民币国际化[J].国际经济评论, 2009, 3.
①何帆.人民币国际化完成了2% [R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文, Policy Brief No. 09046, 2009, 7.
②张明.厘清人民币国际化的成本[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文, Policy Brief No. 09081, 2009, 11.
①张宇燕.人民币国际化:赞同还是反对? [J].国际经济评论, 2010, 1.
②高海红,余永定.人民币国际化的含义与条件[J].国际经济评论, 2010, 1.
③“美国模式”是指在全球范围内寻求独自主导作用的货币国际化模式;而“德国模式”则是以放弃主权货币为妥协,以区域高度一体化为依托,在全球金融秩序中以货币联盟的形式获得一席之地的国际化模式。详情参见高海红,余永定.人民币国际化的含义与条件[J].国际经济评论, 2010, 1.
④如在第一次世界大战爆发前,美国的GDP便已超过英国,但直到第二次世界大战结束后,美元才正式取代英镑成为世界货币;欧元的诞生也建立在欧洲经济一体化这一漫长过程的基础之上。
①参见朱民.全球经济失衡的调整及对中国的影响[J].国际经济评论, 2005, 1.
①从经济总量上看,2009年,中国已成为仅次于美国和日本的世界第三大经济体;但中国的金融发展水平却远未达到这一程度。因此,中国既是经济大国,也是金融弱国。
②罗纳德·麦金农.美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难[M].中国金融出版社,王信等译,2005.
③中国人民银行的数据显示,1993年人民银行外汇资产占资产总额的比重仅为10.5%,而到2001年已增加到44.31%。尽管这一比重在2002年有所下降,但仍高达43%以上。2003年以后外汇资产所占比重继续逐年增加,到2005年已达到59.9%;到2009年12月,该比重已升至77%。数据引自中国人民银行网站(http://www.pbc.gov.cn/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/)以及中国国家外汇管理局国际收支分析小组. 2006年中国国际收支报告[R]. May 10th, 2007.
①张明.美国国债迷思[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文No. 2010.012, 2010. 3.
①余永定.美国经济再平衡与贸易保护主义[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文, Policy Brief No. 09082, 2009.
①张明.刺激经济不能老调重弹[J].国际经济评论, 2009, 1.
②参见华民.世界经济失衡:概念、成因与中国的选择[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2007, 1.
①参见魏浩.国际金融危机与我国代工企业的转型发展[J].国际贸易,2009, 6.
①其主要缺陷在于短期内可能会对出口、贸易品部门的投资和经济增长带来冲击,并伴随少量的摩擦性失业。参见张斌.人民币汇率改革:折衷的方案[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文No. 0918, 2009.
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①引自华民.世界经济失衡:概念、成因与中国的选择[J].吉林大学社会科学学报, 2007, 1.
②数据来源:联合国贸易和发展会议的相关数据库(http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=1584&lang=1.)。
①王国兴.中美战略经济对话:国际经济协调新框架[J].世界经济研究, 2007, 3.
①参见宋玉华,王玉华.中美战略经济对话机制:性质定位和作用[J].国际经济评论, 2007, 1.
①参见陈继勇,刘威.美中贸易的“外资引致逆差”问题研究[J].世界经济, 2006, 9.
①参见张明,覃东海.国际货币体系演进的资源流动分析[J].世界经济与政治, 2005, 12.
①Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts Landau, and Peter Garber. An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System [R]. NBER Working Paper, No. 9971, September 2003.
②参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.中美金融关系的动态演进[J].当代亚太, 2007, 11.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
②张明.为何中国央行仍在增持美国国债[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文No. 08076, 2008.
③参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
④据美国商务部报告,2008年9月美国对华贸易逆差从8月份的253.3亿美元扩大至277.7亿美元。引自《华尔街日报》(中文网络版),http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081113/BUS007985.asp?source=NewSearch,2008年11月13日。
①雷蒙德·戈德史密斯.金融结构与经济发展[M].上海:上海三联书店, 1994.
①受美国金融危机的影响,2008年美国银行总资产占GDP的比重上升至96.9%,而股票市值占GDP的比重则大幅下降至81.3%,债券总值占GDP的比重较为稳定,为212.3%。
②参见黄海洲.美元和人民币:何去何从? [J].国际经济评论, 2010, 2.
③参见Guariglia and Poncet (2006)。
④据IMF的数据统计,2002年中国银行业不良贷款占全部贷款的比重高达26%。随着国有商业银行逐步剥离不良贷款,2007年这一比重下降为6.2%,但仍高于美国银行业不良贷款占全部贷款的比重(1.4%)。
②朱民.全球经济失衡的调整及对中国的影响[J].国际经济评论, 2005, 1.
③项卫星,刘晓鑫.美国的借贷型经济增长模式及其对中国的影响[J].当代亚太, 2006, 2.
①引自雷达,赵勇.中美经济失衡的性质及调整:基于金融发展的视角[J].世界经济, 2009, 1.
①IMF. Assessing Global Financial Risks in Global Financial Stability Report [R]. September, 2006.
②参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
③Wolf, Martin. The New Capitalism [J]. Financial Times, 2007, 7.
④参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①IMF. Global Financial Stability Report: Containing Systemic Risks and Restoring Financial Soundness [R/OL]. http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2008/01/index.htm, April, 2008.
②张明,徐以升.全口径测算中国当前的热钱规模[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文No.0814, 2008.
③参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
②国际货币体系的历史演进证明,单一的主权国家货币充当主要的国际储备货币时,该主权货币本位制存续的条件主要包括:第一,国际储备货币的供给充足;第二,该主权国家的货币价值稳定;第三,该货币的发行国应维持与主要国际储备货币地位相称的经济、金融实力。参见项卫星、刘晓鑫(2009)。
③李晓,丁一兵.亚洲的超越:构建东亚区域货币体系与“人民币亚洲化”[M].当代中国出版社, 2006,第7页.
②参见项卫星,刘晓鑫.美元本位制的问题及其可持续性[J].国际金融研究, 2009, 4.
①王达.中东欧转轨国家国有商业银行公司治理结构改革研究[D].长春:吉林大学经济学院, 2009.
资料来源:朱民.改变未来的金融危机[M].北京:中国金融出版社, 2009: 7.
①引自余永定.国际货币体系改革和中国外汇储备资产保值[J].国际经济评论, 2009, 3.
①如未来的世界中央银行的权利基础是什么?未来的货币体系能否完全独立于政治体制之外?参见黄益平.国际货币体系变迁与人民币国际化[J].国际经济评论, 2009, 3.
①何帆.人民币国际化完成了2% [R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文, Policy Brief No. 09046, 2009, 7.
②张明.厘清人民币国际化的成本[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文, Policy Brief No. 09081, 2009, 11.
①张宇燕.人民币国际化:赞同还是反对? [J].国际经济评论, 2010, 1.
②高海红,余永定.人民币国际化的含义与条件[J].国际经济评论, 2010, 1.
③“美国模式”是指在全球范围内寻求独自主导作用的货币国际化模式;而“德国模式”则是以放弃主权货币为妥协,以区域高度一体化为依托,在全球金融秩序中以货币联盟的形式获得一席之地的国际化模式。详情参见高海红,余永定.人民币国际化的含义与条件[J].国际经济评论, 2010, 1.
④如在第一次世界大战爆发前,美国的GDP便已超过英国,但直到第二次世界大战结束后,美元才正式取代英镑成为世界货币;欧元的诞生也建立在欧洲经济一体化这一漫长过程的基础之上。
①参见朱民.全球经济失衡的调整及对中国的影响[J].国际经济评论, 2005, 1.
①从经济总量上看,2009年,中国已成为仅次于美国和日本的世界第三大经济体;但中国的金融发展水平却远未达到这一程度。因此,中国既是经济大国,也是金融弱国。
②罗纳德·麦金农.美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难[M].中国金融出版社,王信等译,2005.
③中国人民银行的数据显示,1993年人民银行外汇资产占资产总额的比重仅为10.5%,而到2001年已增加到44.31%。尽管这一比重在2002年有所下降,但仍高达43%以上。2003年以后外汇资产所占比重继续逐年增加,到2005年已达到59.9%;到2009年12月,该比重已升至77%。数据引自中国人民银行网站(http://www.pbc.gov.cn/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/)以及中国国家外汇管理局国际收支分析小组. 2006年中国国际收支报告[R]. May 10th, 2007.
①张明.美国国债迷思[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文No. 2010.012, 2010. 3.
①余永定.美国经济再平衡与贸易保护主义[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文, Policy Brief No. 09082, 2009.
①张明.刺激经济不能老调重弹[J].国际经济评论, 2009, 1.
②参见华民.世界经济失衡:概念、成因与中国的选择[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2007, 1.
①参见魏浩.国际金融危机与我国代工企业的转型发展[J].国际贸易,2009, 6.
①其主要缺陷在于短期内可能会对出口、贸易品部门的投资和经济增长带来冲击,并伴随少量的摩擦性失业。参见张斌.人民币汇率改革:折衷的方案[R].中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作论文No. 0918, 2009.
②张宇燕,张静春.汇率的政治经济学——基于中美关于人民币汇率争论的研究[J].当代亚太, 2005, 9.
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