摘要
土地资源是经济发展的基础,城市的土地利用更与经济发展密切关联。长期以来我国粗放式的经济增长方式造成了土地资源使用的高消耗、低产出,浪费巨大,城市土地资源供应的刚性约束,促使我们想方设法提高土地利用率,科学合理、节约和集约用地,走可持续发展的道路。由此,全面深刻地刻划城市土地利用与经济发展之间的关系,就成为理论和现实都迫切需要解决的问题。
目前,关于城市土地利用与经济发展关系的研究,大多是单因素的单向研究,不能从整体上很好地反映城市土地利用与经济发展之间的关系,可能会导致土地利用规划方案不能适应和推动经济发展,甚至加大经济发展中土地的“木桶效应”和瓶颈作用。但事实上,城市土地利用与经济发展之间的关系,是多因素综合影响下的双向关系。而这正是本文的研究空间。
本文综合运用土地经济学、资源经济学、城市经济学、计量经济学、产业经济学和系统论等学科的有关理论,采用系统分析、定性分析与定量分析相结合、理论研究与实证研究相结合等方法,研究城市土地利用与经济发展各维度之间的互动关系和互动机制。在分析城市土地利用与经济发展相关理论研究的基础上,运用系统论的思想,将“土地利用—经济发展”作为一个系统整体考虑,提出城市土地利用与经济发展双向互动作用的要素和理论分析框架,运用灰色典型相关分析和联立方程模型理论对城市土地利用与经济发展互动作用机制进行定量研究,从理论、模型和实证方面全面刻划城市土地动态变化对经济发展的影响和经济发展对城市建设用地规模和结构的影响。
本文主要研究结论包括：(1)城市建设用地面积对经济增长有着稳定的贡献,并随着科技进步,其集约化利用程度逐渐提高；同时城市建设用地与第二产业及第三产业产值占GDP的比重、工业化率以及城市化率都存在高度正相关,城市建设用地总面积同经济增长、产业结构、工业化和城市化之间关系密切。(2)运用灰色典型相关分析城市土地利用结构与经济发展各维度之间的内在关系,研究表明：工业化率、人均GDP以及第三产业占GDP的比重与公共设施用地占城市建设用地的比重和工业用地占城市建设用地的比重之间的相关程度高。城市土地利用结构与经济发展的相关性主要是通过工业化率、人均GDP,第三产业产值占GDP的比重和公共设施用地比重和工业用地比重之间的相关性来体现,因此,在进行产业结构调整或土地利用规划的时候,应重点处理好它们之间的关系。(3)通过构建城市土地利用与经济发展联立方程模型,用全国数据进行研究,结果发现：城市建设用地面积与经济增长、产业结构、工业化、城市化之间存在着互动关系。而经济增长、产业结构、工业化、城市化等经济发展的各个方面,城市建设用地面积均有着显著的影响。(4)通过构建基于面板数据的城市土地利用与经济发展联立方程模型,采用我国东部、中部、西部地区的局部数据,研究各局部城市土地利用与经济发展联立性的差异,研究发现：东部、中部、西部地区的城市土地利用均与经济增长、产业结构、工业化、城市化之间存在着互动关系；而对于经济发展的各个维度来说,城市建设用地面积也均影响显著,这为城市土地利用和区域经济发展的决策提供参考。
在理论价值方面,本研究综合考虑城市土地和经济发展各个维度之间的互动关系,并建立相关理论模型,为提高我国新土地政策背景下城市土地利用和经济发展规划提供科学的理论基础；在实践价值方面,本研究为提高土地利用率,科学合理、节约和集约用地,为加强城市土地利用和经济发展规划,走经济可持续发展道路提供决策参考。
本文可能的创新点包括：(1)区别于现有文献分析城市土地利用与经济发展的单向关系,本文将土地与经济置于同一个系统中,研究分析城市土地利用与经济发展的双向关系；(2)与以往研究城市土地利用与经济发展的简单相关关系不同,本文运用灰色典型相关方法,分析各种城市土地与经济发展各维度间的关系,即居住用地、公共设施用地、工业用地、仓储用地、对外交通用地、道路广场用地、市政公用设施用地、绿地以及特殊用地九类城市建设用地与经济增长、产业结构、工业化以及城市化之间的关系；(3)与以往建立城市土地利用与经济发展单向回归方程不同,本文运用联立方程模型,在考虑城市土地利用与经济发展联立性的条件下,一方面,建立联立方程组模型,对我国城市土地利用与经济发展的互动作用进行实证研究,另一方面,采用同时包括截面数据(各省份)和时序数据的面板数据(Panel Data),通过构建基于面板数据的联立方程模型分析我国东部、中部、西部地区城市土地利用与经济发展联立性的差异。
Land resources are the basis for economic development, urban land utilization is more closely associated with the economic development. For a long time China's extensive mode of economic growth resulted in the use of land resources, high-consumption, low output, a waste of huge resources. The rigidity constraint of the supply of urban land resource prompted us to find ways to improve land utilization, scientific and rational, economical and intensive land use, constructing a sustainable development path. As a result, comprehensively and profoundly depicts urban land use and economic development in the relationship between theory and reality have become an urgent need to address the problem.
At present, researches on the the relationship between urban land utilization and economic development mostly are one-way single-factor studies, can not reflect well on the whole relationship between urban land utilization and economic development, and this may lead to land-use planning program can not adapt to and promote economic development, and even increase the "bucket effect" and bottlenecks of land in the economic development. But in fact, the relationship between urban land utilization and economic development is multi-factors two-way relationship. And this is the research space of this study.
This article researches the interaction relationship and interaction mechanisms between urban land utilization and the various dimensions of economic development by integrating land economics, resource economics, urban economics, econometrics, industrial economics, systems theory and other disciplines relevant theory, with methods of systems analysis, combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, combination of theoretical research and empirical research and so on. Based on the analysis of urban land use and economic development-related theoretical research, appling the idea of systems theory, this article takes "land utilization-economic development" as a whole system, proposes the elements and theoretical analysis framework of a two-way interaction between urban land utilization and economic development. Appling the theory of gray canonical correlation analysis and simultaneous equation model, having quantitative research on the interactive mechanism of urban land utilization and economic development, from the aspects of theory, models and empirical research,take a comprehensive characterization of the impact of urban land dynamic change on economic development and the impact of economic development on urban construction land size and structure.
The major research findings include:(1) Urban construction land area have a steady contribution to economic growth, and with the advances in technology, the extent of their intensive use have a gradual increase; at the same time, urban construction land area have a high degree of positive correlation with the second industry and tertiary industry output value of GDP, the proportion of the rate of industrialization and urbanization, the total area of urban construction land have close relationship with economic growth, industrial structure, industrialization and urbanization.(2) the use of gray canonical correlation analysis of urban land use structure and economic development, the intrinsic relationship between the various dimensions, studies show that:the rate of industrialization and per capita GDP and the proportion of tertiary industry GDP have a high degree of correlation with public facilities, land accounted for the proportion of urban construction land and industrial land account for the proportion of urban construction land. To reflect the correlation between urban land use structure and economic development, mainly through the industrialization of the relevance of the rate of per capita GDP, the tertiary industry output value of the proportion of GDP, and public facilities land proportion and the proportion of industrial land, therefore, when we want a industrial structure adjustment or land-use planning, we should focus on handling the relationship between them.(3) By constructing urban land use and economic development, simultaneous equation model, using national data study found that:urban construction land area have interactive relationship with economic growth, industrial structure, industrialization, urbanization. And economic growth, industrial structure, industrialization, urbanization and other aspects of economic development, urban construction land area both have a significant impact.(4) By constructing panel data-based urban land use and economic development, simultaneous equation model, using the country's eastern, central and western regions of the local data, research the local urban land use and economic development, the simultaneous nature of the differences, the study found:the eastern, central and western areas of urban land use are related to economic growth, industrial structure, industrialization, urbanization; while for the various dimensions of economic development, the urban construction land area have also significantly affected, which for urban land use and regional economic development decision-making.
The theoretical value of this study is that, considering the interactive relationship between the various dimensions of urban land utilization and economic development, establishing of the relevant theoretical model, provide a scientific theoretical foundation for improving China's urban land utilization and economic development plan on the backgroud of the new land policyn; at the same time, having a very important practical significance for decision-making reference aim to raise the utilization rate of land, promote scientific and rational, economical and intensive land utilization, in order to strengthen the urban land utilization and economic development planning, take the road of sustainable economic development.
The innovations of this article may include:(1) different from the one-way relationship analysis of urban land utilization and economic development of the existing literature, this article places land and the economic in the same system, research and analysis the two-way relationship of urban land utilization and economic development; (2) previous studies analysis the simple correlation between urban land utilization and economic development, but this article apply the theory of gray canonical correlation analysis analyzing a variety of urban land and economic development in the relationship between the various dimensions, that is the relationship between the nine categories of urban construction land such as residential land, public facilities land, industrial land, storage sites, external transport sites, roads and square land, municipal land for public facilities, green spaces and special land and economic growth, industrial structure, industrialization and urbanization; (3) previous studies establish one-way regression equation of urban land utiliazation and economic development, this article is different, under conditions of simultaneous nature of urban land utiliazation and economic development,using simultaneous equation model, on the one hand, establishes simultaneous equations model to have an empirical research on the interaction of China's urban land utiliazation and economic development, on the other hand, using the panel data that including cross-sectional data (all provinces) and time series data, by building simultaneous equation models based on panel data, analysis the simultaneous differences of urban land utilization and economic development in China's eastern, central and western regions.
引文
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