摘要
基于中国部分省区资源开发没有推动经济社会快速发展的现实(至少统计描述的结果和大部分文献的结论显示如此)以及资源诅咒理论实证研究不断出现的分歧,有必要更深入地探讨资源诅咒假设以及资源丰裕对经济发展的影响程度。本文选择资源开发和居民收入的关系作为切入点,运用理论和实证方法综合研究资源诅咒理论及中国资源开发的影响。
本文的研究目标是推导、描述、测量资源与居民收入的关系及作用机制。首先,以内生经济增长理论和荷兰病模型生产要素再分配理论为基础构建资源丰裕收入效应模型,从理论上分析资源开发对收入水平、收入增长的作用,得出“相对资源诅咒”的理论命题。其次,以省为基本分析单位、使用横截面数据和面板数据描述、测量资源丰裕对居民收入水平、收入增长、收入分布的影响,并检验结论稳健性,目的是验证“相对资源诅咒”理论在我国省级层面的适用性。同时,通过分时段和资源丰裕指标变化检验经济发展阶段和资源不同属性——资源储量、资源产出、资源出口、资源分布、资源种类、资源繁荣的收入效应。再次,分别使用横截面数据和面板数据计算资源诅咒各种传导机制的作用程度以及相对重要性；同时区分资源对收入的直接效应、间接效应和总效应。目的是找出资源诅咒的主要原因并比较所有原因的相对重要性。在此基础上,从最重要的生产要素——人力资本出发,推导和计算避免相对资源诅咒的人力资本阈值。最后,根据本文理论和实证检验的结论提出相应政策建议。
本文主要从以下方面进行了创新,并得出了相应结论：第一,理论上证明了“相对资源诅咒”的命题,并以中国省级数据证明了该理论在中国的适用性。1986年以来资源丰裕降低了居民收入增长速度,但是仍然提高了居民收入水平,并有利于降低城乡居民收入差距。不同时段、数据结构、回归方法、资源属性的稳定性检验都表明我国资源相对诅咒收入效应稳定成立。第二,在检验相对资源诅咒传导机制作用程度以及相对重要性基础上,计算了资源丰裕的直接收入效应、间接收入效应和总效应。资源直接收入效应是稳定的相对诅咒效应。资源间接收入效应的方向不稳定,但是正效应主要通过提高人力资本水平、制造业规模实现,负效应主要通过降低制度质量实现。资源丰裕的总效应在1986-2007年为“福利效应”,但1999-2007年却表现为“相对诅咒”的总收入效应。资源开发活动产生的不利影响逐渐凸现。第三,资源不同属性有不同的收入效应。首先,资源储量提高了居民收入水平,降低了收入增长率,扩大了居民收入差距,但不显著。其次,资源生产提高了居民收入水平,降低了收入增长率,这一关系具有良好的统计显著性。再次,资源出口提高了居民收入水平且加快了收入增长,其中对收入增长率的正作用显著。还有,资源分布提高了居民收入水平及其增长率,但系数非常小且不显著。最后,天然气生产具有福利效应,石油生产具有相对诅咒效应、煤炭生产具有绝对诅咒效应。这些都表明相对资源诅咒之所以发生,根本原因不在于资源本身,而在于资源对经济生产结构的影响。第四,理论上证明了人力资本对相对资源诅咒的阈值效应,实证分析表明居民平均受教育年限能够提高收入水平及其增长速度,并减小已有的居民收入差距。保持其他变量值恒定,将居民平均受教育年限提高到12.5年就能够抵消资源开发对居民收入增长率的负作用。
Abundant resource and its extraction do not promote economic growth and societal development rapidly in some provinces of China that is revealed by our simple statistical description and a majority of Chinese literatures. Furthermore, the studies on Resource Curse are constantly controversial for nearly 50 years. For these actual and theoretical reasons it is necessary to explore "Resource Curse" hypothesis in-depth and discuss influence on economic development of resource abundance in China. Therefore the relationship between resource abundance and resident income is entry point of the doctoral dissertation in order to study comprehensively Resource Curse theoretical proposition and its working performance in China.
The object of this dissertation is to derive, describe, and measure the relationship between resource abundance and resident income and their mechanism of action. Firstly, the paper consider a two sector model of growth and level effects from resource abundance based on endogenous economic growth theory and Dutch Disease model which derive both the static and the dynamic properties of an economy rich in exhaustible natural resource. The result shows that an economy like this has higher per capita income levels but lower per capita income growth rates which of theoretical propositions a called "Semi Resource Curse" (SRC). Secondly, the effects on per capita income level, per capita income growth and per capital income distribution from resource abundance are described and measured making use of both pooled cross-sectional data and panel data in which province is the basic unit of analysis with the purpose of examining the applicability in China of SRC. Afterwards plenty of works is finished for robustness test. Simultaneously, the impacts of stage of economic development and different properties of resource abundance which include resource reserves, resource output, resource export, resource distribution, resource variety and resource boom, are examined in the process of testing SRC. Thirdly, the transmission mechanisms of SRC are investigated with both pooled cross-sectional data and panel data. The effects and relative importance of different transmission channels are calculated, and then as a basis of which the direct income effect, the indirect income effect and total income effects from resource abundance are received. Then the paper deducts and calculates the threshold effect of human capital, on SRC. Finally, some policy recommendations are advised according to our theory and empirical conclusions.
The main conclusions of the dissertation are as follows. In the first place, SRC are proved theoretically and empirically. The Chinese provincial data demonstrate that resource abundance has reduced per capita income growth, while has increased per capita income level of resident and has narrowed per capita income gap between urban residents and rural people since 1986. The SRC proposition has been being existed stability proved by all robustness tests which distinguish different economic periods, different data structure, different regression methods and different properties of resource abundance. Secondly, the direct income effect, indirect income effect and total income of resource abundance has been accumulated built on examination of SRC any transmissions mechanisms and their relative importance. The direct effect of resource abundance was semi resource curse steadily while indirect effect was alterable the positive influence of which stemmed from higher human capital stock and larger manufacturing scale and the negative influence of which derived from worse institution quality. The total effect of resource abundance was welfare from 1986 to 2007, however, which changed into SRC from 1999 to 2007. The above statement shows that the disadvantages and adverse influence of resource development is emerging gradually. Thirdly, different properties of resource abundance attributed to different income effect. The resource reserves increased per capita income level, dropped per capita income growth rate and widened per capita income gap among residents all of which were not significant statistically. The resource output increased per capita income level and lowered per capita income growth rate all of which had highly statistical significance. The resource export increased per capita income level and per capita income growth rate which of positive effect on income growth rate was significant statistically. The resource distribution improved per capita income level and per capita income growth all of which coefficients were small and had no statistical significance. The natural gas production had welfare income effect, petroleum production had semi curse income effect, and coal production had absolutely curse income effect. All these conclusions show that the root of SRC may be the effects on economic structure, not be resources abundance itself.
Fourthly, the threshold effect of human capital on SRC is derivate with theory and mathematics instrument and is tested and accumulated empirically with Chinese Province data. The dissertation demonstrates that the average years of education of people could improve the per capita income level and growth rate, and narrow the existing income gap significantly. The paper shows that ceteris paribus, the negative effect from resource abundance on per capita income growth would disappear if the average years of education achieves to 12.5 years.
引文
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