我国电信产业评价及规制策略研究
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摘要
2008年的电信重组在资源配置方面调整了市场格局,但由于电信重组政策实施效果的滞后性和电信市场的复杂性,实现有效竞争和公平竞争的目标并没有在短期内实现,相反,在分业领域市场结构失衡的局面变得更加严重,使得市场机制不能有效的发挥配置资源的作用,主导运营商如果制定垄断价格或者滥用市场优势进行恶性竞争,会存在扰乱市场竞争秩序和社会福利减少的风险,从而影响产业的长期效益和整体竞争力。因此我们有必要对电信产业绩效进行科学评价并且针对市场结构失衡的现状进行政府规制。
我国电信产业发展已有几十年的历史,对以往电信产业的市场结构和绩效、效率及电信规制效果的评价是我们制定符合我国国情的电信规制政策的基础。在对我国电信产业绩效、效率以及以往规制政策进行科学评价的基础上,针对我国电信市场的实际和三网融合进程的推进,对我国三网融合背景下的规制政策和市场准入规制、以及电信资费规制进行了研究。
(1)本文从电信产业市场结构、业务发展、投资效益、通信能力等几个维度对电信产业的市场机构和绩效进行了研究和分析,发现电信重组虽然使得电信产业的发展水平逐年提高,服务水平快速提高,资费水平继续下降,但由于重组效果的滞后性和移动业务对固定业务的替代作用,使得市场结构失衡的状况变得更加严重,中国电信和中国联通的实力和中国移动相差甚远,难以与中国移动展开有效竞争。
(2)利用数据包络分析方法对我国电信产业的技术效率、规模效率、纯技术效率、动态效率、静态效率等从时间和地域两个维度进行了系统的实证研究和定量评估。研究结果表明我国电信产业效率存在地区差异,以往电信重组和规制政策的实施对电信产业的效率存在影响。利用基于评价得出的电信产业的效率变化曲线,分析了历次电信重组和规制政策对我国电信产业效率的影响,例如我国电信产业的实施政企分开、放松资费规制、中国电信集团拆分、技术的进步等促进了电信产业的技术效率或者规模效率的提高。
(3)我们在借鉴经济合作与发展组织(OECD)电信规制指标体系的基础上,结合对电信专家的访谈以及文献研究的结果,建立了我国电信产业规制效果评价指标体系,利用层次分析法对我国电信产业近期规制政策的实施效果进行了科学的评估。根据评估结果得出国家规制政策应重点关注市场结构失衡的调整和加大对TD产业的扶持力度,为电信规制政策的制定提供决策支撑。
(4)在三网融合方面,通过对国内外三网融合规制的研究和分析,提出国家首先应该完善和健全三网融合法律体系,并建立独立的三网融合规制机构。在市场准入规制方面,通过建立博弈论模型从产业和企业层面对广电产业和电信产业的市场交叉进入情况进行了研究,得出在三网融合背景下必须要严格限制进入电信运营领域的广电企业数量,否则既会使得互联互通难度增大,又会严重影响在位的电信运营企业的产量和利润,阻碍电信产业的持续健康发展。
(5)在电信资费规制方面,认为互联互通资费规制和资费规制是快速解决市场结构失衡的有效规制手段。在借鉴国外互联互通资费规制成功经验的基础上,提出了有效解决我国电信市场结构失衡的互联互通资费规制建议。利用Malmquist生产率指数-DEA模型对我国电信资费上限规制模型中的X参数进行了测算,并建立了资费调整依据数学模型得出了我国电信产业最优价格调整规律,在给定初始价格和终期价格的情况下,确定实现利润最大化的价格调整的时间点。从市场竞争的视角基于古诺模型进行电信资费博弈分析,得出了电信产业的市场集中度、产业平均边际成本、价格需求弹性和市场价格之间的关系。接着根据研究结果提出了我国电信产业规制的政策建议,为电信规制部门制定规制政策提供理论依据和决策支撑。
The reorganization of telecommunication enterprises in 2008 had adjusted the market structure at the aspect of resource allocation. But because the hysteresis of the reorganization policy and the complexity of telecommunication market, the objectives of realizing fair competition and effective competition are unlikely to get the nod in a short time. On the contrary, the imbalanced situation of market structure in some special service fields has become more seriously. In such cases market mechanism cannot play a role in allocating resources effectively. If the telecom operators with the significant market power set the monopoly price for the services and devote to the unfair competition by abuse of the market advantages, the fair competitive market order will be disturbed and the social welfare will be reduced, this situation will affect the long-term benefits and general competitiveness of the telecommunication industry. Therefore, it is necessary to make a scientific performance evaluation of the telecom industry and take some governmental regulations to the imbalanced situation of the market structure.
The telecom industry has developed for decades in our country. In order to make a regulation policy which is fit for the situation of our country, we must have a scientific evaluation of the previous performance, efficiency and regulation effects of the telecom industry. We first scientific evaluated the previous performance, efficiency and regulation policy,and then we studied the regulation policy and market access regulation, and the price regulation of telecom based on the practice in Chinese telecom market and the integration of telecommunications networks, TV networks and the internet networks.
(1) The thesis studied the market structure and performance of telecoms industry from several aspects which include market structure, business development, investment, communication ability and so on.And then we found that although the restructuring of the telecommunication industry can raise the development level and the service level rapidly, and the price can decries rapidly in the same time. Because the hysteresis of the reorganization policy and the substitution trendy of the mobile service for the fixed service, market structure's imbalanced situation has become more and more seriously. China Telecom and China Unicom's enterprise strength still lag greatly behind the China Mobile, it is difficult to have effective competition with China Mobile.
(2)From the view of time and district, the paper utilized the method of Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) to study the technology efficiency, scale efficiency, pure technology efficiency, dynamic efficiency, static efficiency of the telecom industry in our country.The research results show that the efficiency of China telecom industry existing regional differences,the previous reorganization and regulation effects to the telecom with the reference to the efficiency changes of the telecom industry.We studied the effects of previous reorganization and regulation on the efficiency based on the efficiency changes curve,such as the separating government functions from enterprise management in China telecom industry, relaxing price regulation,the splitting of China telecom group and technical progress of the telecommunications industry,all these promoted the efficiency of China's telecom industry.
(3)The regulation effect evaluation index system of telecom industry is established based on the results of expert interviewing and the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) regulation targets index system. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used to evaluate the implementation effect of recent telecom regulation policy. According to the evaluation results obtained that the national regulation policies should focus on the market structure adjustment and to increase industrial support for TD.The conclusions will offer references for the formulation of the relevant regulation policies of the telecom industry in our country.
(4)At the aspect of the integration of telecommunications networks, TV networks and the internet,we first studied and evaluated the abroad regulation to the integration of telecommunications networks, TV networks and the internet,we got some advises like the nation should perfect and complete the legal system,and increate independent regulation organizations for the integration of the 3 networks.At the market access regulation aspect,we studied the cross access for telecom industry and TV and radio industry from the whole industry and sole enterprise,which is based on the game theory we have modeled.And we concluded that we must strictly restricted the number of TV and radio enterprises which can access the field of telecom,or will increase the difficulty of the inter-communication,and seriously affect the telecom operators's output and profit,and hinder the sustained and healthy development of the telecommunications industry.
(5)At the aspect of market access regulation, the paper studies the situation that the telecommunication industry and broadcast industry enter the opposite market by putting up the game theory model. At the aspect of price regulation, having learned from the interconnection and intercommunication price regulation success experiences of other countries, the paper put forward some interconnection and intercommunication price regulation suggestion. The X parameter of price cap regulation model in telecom industry has been calculated by the method of Malmquist-DEA model. Mathematical model has been putted up to deduce the optimal rule of telecom price variation. The best time point of price adjustment for achieving maximum profit has been determined based on the given price of the initial and final phase.From the view of market competition, the paper gave a game theory analysis to the telecom service price with Cournot Model. It deduced the relationship among the parameters of market concentration rate, average marginal cost, price elasticity of demand and the market price in telecom market. Then, the paper put forward some policy suggestion of telecom regulation in our country according the research achievements. The research achievements will offer references and decision support for the formulation of the relevant regulation policies of the telecom industry in our country.
我国电信产业发展已有几十年的历史,对以往电信产业的市场结构和绩效、效率及电信规制效果的评价是我们制定符合我国国情的电信规制政策的基础。在对我国电信产业绩效、效率以及以往规制政策进行科学评价的基础上,针对我国电信市场的实际和三网融合进程的推进,对我国三网融合背景下的规制政策和市场准入规制、以及电信资费规制进行了研究。
(1)本文从电信产业市场结构、业务发展、投资效益、通信能力等几个维度对电信产业的市场机构和绩效进行了研究和分析,发现电信重组虽然使得电信产业的发展水平逐年提高,服务水平快速提高,资费水平继续下降,但由于重组效果的滞后性和移动业务对固定业务的替代作用,使得市场结构失衡的状况变得更加严重,中国电信和中国联通的实力和中国移动相差甚远,难以与中国移动展开有效竞争。
(2)利用数据包络分析方法对我国电信产业的技术效率、规模效率、纯技术效率、动态效率、静态效率等从时间和地域两个维度进行了系统的实证研究和定量评估。研究结果表明我国电信产业效率存在地区差异,以往电信重组和规制政策的实施对电信产业的效率存在影响。利用基于评价得出的电信产业的效率变化曲线,分析了历次电信重组和规制政策对我国电信产业效率的影响,例如我国电信产业的实施政企分开、放松资费规制、中国电信集团拆分、技术的进步等促进了电信产业的技术效率或者规模效率的提高。
(3)我们在借鉴经济合作与发展组织(OECD)电信规制指标体系的基础上,结合对电信专家的访谈以及文献研究的结果,建立了我国电信产业规制效果评价指标体系,利用层次分析法对我国电信产业近期规制政策的实施效果进行了科学的评估。根据评估结果得出国家规制政策应重点关注市场结构失衡的调整和加大对TD产业的扶持力度,为电信规制政策的制定提供决策支撑。
(4)在三网融合方面,通过对国内外三网融合规制的研究和分析,提出国家首先应该完善和健全三网融合法律体系,并建立独立的三网融合规制机构。在市场准入规制方面,通过建立博弈论模型从产业和企业层面对广电产业和电信产业的市场交叉进入情况进行了研究,得出在三网融合背景下必须要严格限制进入电信运营领域的广电企业数量,否则既会使得互联互通难度增大,又会严重影响在位的电信运营企业的产量和利润,阻碍电信产业的持续健康发展。
(5)在电信资费规制方面,认为互联互通资费规制和资费规制是快速解决市场结构失衡的有效规制手段。在借鉴国外互联互通资费规制成功经验的基础上,提出了有效解决我国电信市场结构失衡的互联互通资费规制建议。利用Malmquist生产率指数-DEA模型对我国电信资费上限规制模型中的X参数进行了测算,并建立了资费调整依据数学模型得出了我国电信产业最优价格调整规律,在给定初始价格和终期价格的情况下,确定实现利润最大化的价格调整的时间点。从市场竞争的视角基于古诺模型进行电信资费博弈分析,得出了电信产业的市场集中度、产业平均边际成本、价格需求弹性和市场价格之间的关系。接着根据研究结果提出了我国电信产业规制的政策建议,为电信规制部门制定规制政策提供理论依据和决策支撑。
The reorganization of telecommunication enterprises in 2008 had adjusted the market structure at the aspect of resource allocation. But because the hysteresis of the reorganization policy and the complexity of telecommunication market, the objectives of realizing fair competition and effective competition are unlikely to get the nod in a short time. On the contrary, the imbalanced situation of market structure in some special service fields has become more seriously. In such cases market mechanism cannot play a role in allocating resources effectively. If the telecom operators with the significant market power set the monopoly price for the services and devote to the unfair competition by abuse of the market advantages, the fair competitive market order will be disturbed and the social welfare will be reduced, this situation will affect the long-term benefits and general competitiveness of the telecommunication industry. Therefore, it is necessary to make a scientific performance evaluation of the telecom industry and take some governmental regulations to the imbalanced situation of the market structure.
The telecom industry has developed for decades in our country. In order to make a regulation policy which is fit for the situation of our country, we must have a scientific evaluation of the previous performance, efficiency and regulation effects of the telecom industry. We first scientific evaluated the previous performance, efficiency and regulation policy,and then we studied the regulation policy and market access regulation, and the price regulation of telecom based on the practice in Chinese telecom market and the integration of telecommunications networks, TV networks and the internet networks.
(1) The thesis studied the market structure and performance of telecoms industry from several aspects which include market structure, business development, investment, communication ability and so on.And then we found that although the restructuring of the telecommunication industry can raise the development level and the service level rapidly, and the price can decries rapidly in the same time. Because the hysteresis of the reorganization policy and the substitution trendy of the mobile service for the fixed service, market structure's imbalanced situation has become more and more seriously. China Telecom and China Unicom's enterprise strength still lag greatly behind the China Mobile, it is difficult to have effective competition with China Mobile.
(2)From the view of time and district, the paper utilized the method of Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) to study the technology efficiency, scale efficiency, pure technology efficiency, dynamic efficiency, static efficiency of the telecom industry in our country.The research results show that the efficiency of China telecom industry existing regional differences,the previous reorganization and regulation effects to the telecom with the reference to the efficiency changes of the telecom industry.We studied the effects of previous reorganization and regulation on the efficiency based on the efficiency changes curve,such as the separating government functions from enterprise management in China telecom industry, relaxing price regulation,the splitting of China telecom group and technical progress of the telecommunications industry,all these promoted the efficiency of China's telecom industry.
(3)The regulation effect evaluation index system of telecom industry is established based on the results of expert interviewing and the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) regulation targets index system. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used to evaluate the implementation effect of recent telecom regulation policy. According to the evaluation results obtained that the national regulation policies should focus on the market structure adjustment and to increase industrial support for TD.The conclusions will offer references for the formulation of the relevant regulation policies of the telecom industry in our country.
(4)At the aspect of the integration of telecommunications networks, TV networks and the internet,we first studied and evaluated the abroad regulation to the integration of telecommunications networks, TV networks and the internet,we got some advises like the nation should perfect and complete the legal system,and increate independent regulation organizations for the integration of the 3 networks.At the market access regulation aspect,we studied the cross access for telecom industry and TV and radio industry from the whole industry and sole enterprise,which is based on the game theory we have modeled.And we concluded that we must strictly restricted the number of TV and radio enterprises which can access the field of telecom,or will increase the difficulty of the inter-communication,and seriously affect the telecom operators's output and profit,and hinder the sustained and healthy development of the telecommunications industry.
(5)At the aspect of market access regulation, the paper studies the situation that the telecommunication industry and broadcast industry enter the opposite market by putting up the game theory model. At the aspect of price regulation, having learned from the interconnection and intercommunication price regulation success experiences of other countries, the paper put forward some interconnection and intercommunication price regulation suggestion. The X parameter of price cap regulation model in telecom industry has been calculated by the method of Malmquist-DEA model. Mathematical model has been putted up to deduce the optimal rule of telecom price variation. The best time point of price adjustment for achieving maximum profit has been determined based on the given price of the initial and final phase.From the view of market competition, the paper gave a game theory analysis to the telecom service price with Cournot Model. It deduced the relationship among the parameters of market concentration rate, average marginal cost, price elasticity of demand and the market price in telecom market. Then, the paper put forward some policy suggestion of telecom regulation in our country according the research achievements. The research achievements will offer references and decision support for the formulation of the relevant regulation policies of the telecom industry in our country.
引文
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