美元锚的退出与人民币国际化
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摘要
人民币国际化的目标是指在私人领域它将部分成为国际贸易的交易货币和结算货币、金融机构的价值储藏手段以及国际债券的发行货币；在官方领域它将部分成为干预和储备货币以及国家主权债券的延期支付标准,并最终成为境外广泛接受与使用的货币,以及全球主要央行的储备、干预与盯住货币。然而目前来看,无论是官方还是私人领域,美元仍然是主导性的国际货币,欧元和日元只是典型的同类竞争者货币,人民币尚处于周边化的初步阶段。
理论上,一国货币能否实现国际化关键取决于：庞大的经济与贸易规模、开放和发达的金融市场、货币价值内外稳定的信心以及网络外部性。实证研究表明,货币的国际化使用程度与一国的经济实力严格正相关。历史上,美元取代英镑的背景使美国成为世界第一经济体和净债权国；欧元成为仅次于美元的全球第二大国际货币可归因于欧元区的经济和贸易规模以及独立的欧洲央行将稳定币值作为最重要的目标,从而为一个强势而稳定的欧元提供支持。日元国际化始于1970年代,当时日本经过20年平均10%左右的经济增长,成为世界第二大经体。然而由于担心日元国际化对国内金融市场的潜在负面冲击,日本决策者直到亚洲金融危机和欧元诞生后才积极推进日元国际化进程。然而,事后来看,日元国际使用的范围十分有限。这反映了日本官方最初对日元国际化的消极态度、日本国内金融市场开放程度较低、以及日元汇率大幅波动削弱了日元在全球贸易与投资中的使用。
2009年以来,人民币国际化已经在跨境贸易结算、跨境投融资方面取得显著进展,然而从使用范围上看,目前人民币国际化尚处于周边化的起步阶段。从国际货币职能看,目前人民币难以作为价值储藏货币,也不能作为一国央行的外汇市场干预货币以及锚货币。虽然人民币在周边国边已经部分发挥贸易结算和计价货币,跨境贸易人民币结算比例仍然非常微小,作用范围十分有限。
人民币国际化的程度与空间一定程度上受制于资本项目不完全开放、利率不完全市场化、金融市场不发达及汇率不稳定。然而经验分析表明,人民币国际化的最大限制性因素来自于美元锚的不稳定：(1)在人民币很大程度仍然盯住或者参考美元的条件下,美元的趋势性贬值压力最终转换成人民币的单边升值预期,并引发国际资本的流入,从而形成被动的货币投放和通货膨胀压力,影响人民币内外价值稳定,从而削弱人民币作为国际货币的吸引力；(2)美元锚的不稳定及人民币升值预期减弱了中国央行的货币政策独立性,从而数量型工具而非价格型工具成为常态,这种政策组合难以使中国的利率结构达到最优化,从而导致中国内部的经济增长结构失衡,使得投资过度集中在无效率的生产部门,而且由投资所形成的过剩产能被销售到国外,最终形成贸易顺差,并进一步形成国内货币政策的制约,由此所产生的中国经济内外不平衡才是制约人民币国际化未来潜在空间与可持续性的根本问题；(3)对美元锚的过度依赖还通过影响中国金融业发展的广度与深度从而对人民币国际化产生冲击效应。
基于理论与实证的分析,人民币国际化的现实选择是有序退出美元锚,以一篮子货币为参照系,这对于人民币国际化的路径选择而言,有以下几重含义：(1)通过人民币有效汇率的动态调节,实现国际收支的总量平衡,意味着与中国经常项目存在逆差的国家,将成为人民币境外结算与流通的潜在区域,而这些区域则主要是中国国际收支逆差的主要来源方即东亚新兴市场；(2)选择香港作为中国的离岸金融中心,从而为中国资本项目自由化、利率市场化改革提供试验场,同时为国际投资者提供了人民币计价的金融工具,从而对冲投资者在参与人民币贸易结算和投资收益中的外汇风险,这是实现人民币国际的过渡性战略。(3)如果人民币能够实现价值稳定,则有可能加入并逐步扩大其在SDR中的份额,这将是人民币成为国际储备货币的关键一步。
在人民币汇率参考一篮子货币的预设情景下,人民币实现国际化的路线图可被概括为“两个三步走计划”：(1)从人民币使用的区域范围来讲,地域层面的人民币“三步走”路线图应该是起步于周边化、延伸于东亚新兴市场国家,并最终覆盖于全球主要国家。(2)从人民币履行国际货币的职能视角看,货币职能层面的“三步走”路线图应该起步于跨境贸易结算货币功能,延伸于全球主要投资货币之一,并最终发展成为具有竞争性的、可部分替代美元的国际储备货币。作为实施“两个三步走”计划的中间战略,香港应该逐步成为人民币离岸中心,从而为中国资本项目自由化、利率市场化改革提供试验场,同时为国际投资者提供了人民币计价的金融工具,从而对冲投资者在参与人民币贸易结算和投资收益中的外汇风险。
The goals of RMB internationalization are elaborated in two aspects. In private field, RMB will become the medium and settlement currency of international trade, the means of value store of financial institutions and the issuance currency of international bond. In public field, it will become intervention currency and reserve currency, the standard of deferred compensation of Sovereign Bond of countries and, eventually, the reserve currency and intervention currency of main global central banks with being widely accepted and used overseas. But so far, public and private fields, the dollar is still the dominant international currency, and RMB is still in progress.
Theoretically, the performance of the internationalization of a country's currency depends on factors followed:the enormous scale of economy and trade, financial market which is open and developed, confidence in stability of the value of currency and network externalities. It is showed in some empirical studies that the internationalization of currency correlates positively with the economic strength of a country. In history, dollar took the place of pound, which happened when American became the largest economy and creditor nation worldly. Euro become the second-largest international money next to dollar globally, which is attributable to the scale of economy and trade in euro area and the support for stable strong euro, as the independent European Central Bank set the stability of the value of currency as the primary goal. The internationalization of Yen began in the 1970s when Japan became the second-largest economy in the world with an average annual economic growth rate of 10 percent continuously for 20 years. Taking some potential negative impacts on domestic financial market into consideration, however, decision makers of Japan didn't pushing forward the process of internationalization of Yen positively until the eruption of Asia financial crisis and the birth of Euro. In retrospect, however, the international application scope of Yen was narrow, fairly. This reflects the fact that the negative attitudes towards the internationalization of Yen of Japanese officials, domestic financial market without opening up and the large-scope fluctuation of Yen exchange rate weakened the application in global investment and trade of Yen.
Obviously, tremendous progresses have been made on cross-border trading settlement and financing and investment since 2009, however, RMB internationalization is, in the scope of the world, still in its beginning stage, presently. From the aspects of international monetary functions, RMB is neither functioning properly on value storage, nor intervention currency and reserve currency which is officially used. Although RMB has became the carrier and priced currency of trade and finance transactions, its use sphere is fairly narrow。
Empirically, the degree and scope of the internationalization of RMB, to a certain extent, are bound to factors followed:capital programs which are not open comprehensively, interest rate which does not marketly decided completely, underdeveloped financial market and unstable exchange rates. However, our experience analysis shows that the main restrictive factor was the instability of Dollars anchor. (1) RMB, to a great extent, still under the condition of referring to dollars, the final result of depreciation pressure of dollar convert to the unilateral appreciation prospects of RMB, and caused international capital inflows, thus, formed passive money supply and inflation pressure, and influenced the value stability of RMB, consequently weaken the attraction of RMB as the international currency. (2) The instability of dollars anchor and the appreciation of RMB were weakening the monetary policy independence of Chinese central bank. Therefore, quantitative tools and non-price type tools becomes the norm use, which, however, can hardly make the interest rates structure of China to reach the optimization. Thus cause the internal economic growth of China in unbalanced structure, make the investment gathered excessively in inefficient production department, and the production of the excess investment has been sold to foreign countries. Finally trade surplus were formed, and further domestic monetary policy restriction was formed. Thereby bought out the internal and external imbalance of China economy was the root cause of restricting the potential future space of RMB internationalization and sustainability. (3) For the excessive dependence on dollar anchor through impact the breadth and depth of China's financial industry development, and then exert knock-on effects on RMB internationalization.
Based on the theory and empirical analysis, the realistic choice of RMB internationalization is exit dollars anchor orderly. With reference to the basket of currencies, this comes to regarding the path choice of RMB internationalization has several meanings as following:(1) through the dynamic adjustment of the RMB effective rate to realize the amount balance of international payments, this means the country which deficit of current-account always existed with China will become the potential areas of RMB settlement and circulation. While these areas are just the emerging East Asian market which was the main source of payments deficit of China. (2) Choose Hong Kong as the offshore financial center of China, thus for the capital account liberalization and market-oriented interest rate reform of China provide testing ground. At the same time provide RMB-denominated financial instruments to international investors. Thus hedge foreign exchange risk when the investors participate in the RMB trade settlement and investment income. This is the transitional realization strategy of RMB international. (3) If the RMB realized value stability, it will be likely to join and gradually expand its share of the SDR. This will be the key step of RMB become to the international reserve currency.
The RMB exchange rate with the reference to a basket of currencies preset situations, RMB accomplish internationalized map can be summarized as "two three-step program": From the RMB areas used by extent, regional level of RMB "three steps" should be started in peripheral melt, extension in East Asian emerging market countries, eventually, to cover the major countries worldwide. (2) From the perspective of fulfill international monetary functions of RMB, monetary function levels of "three steps" should be started in cross-border trade currency function, one of the main investment outspread global currency, and eventually become the competitive, can partial replace dollar international reserve currency. As the middle of the strategy of implementation of "two three-step plan", Hong Kong should be gradually become an offshore RMB centre, therefore, for the capital account liberalization and market-oriented interest rate reform of China provide testing ground. At the same time provides RMB-denominated financial instruments to international investors, thus hedge foreign exchange risk when the investors participate in the RMB trade settlement and investment income.
理论上,一国货币能否实现国际化关键取决于：庞大的经济与贸易规模、开放和发达的金融市场、货币价值内外稳定的信心以及网络外部性。实证研究表明,货币的国际化使用程度与一国的经济实力严格正相关。历史上,美元取代英镑的背景使美国成为世界第一经济体和净债权国；欧元成为仅次于美元的全球第二大国际货币可归因于欧元区的经济和贸易规模以及独立的欧洲央行将稳定币值作为最重要的目标,从而为一个强势而稳定的欧元提供支持。日元国际化始于1970年代,当时日本经过20年平均10%左右的经济增长,成为世界第二大经体。然而由于担心日元国际化对国内金融市场的潜在负面冲击,日本决策者直到亚洲金融危机和欧元诞生后才积极推进日元国际化进程。然而,事后来看,日元国际使用的范围十分有限。这反映了日本官方最初对日元国际化的消极态度、日本国内金融市场开放程度较低、以及日元汇率大幅波动削弱了日元在全球贸易与投资中的使用。
2009年以来,人民币国际化已经在跨境贸易结算、跨境投融资方面取得显著进展,然而从使用范围上看,目前人民币国际化尚处于周边化的起步阶段。从国际货币职能看,目前人民币难以作为价值储藏货币,也不能作为一国央行的外汇市场干预货币以及锚货币。虽然人民币在周边国边已经部分发挥贸易结算和计价货币,跨境贸易人民币结算比例仍然非常微小,作用范围十分有限。
人民币国际化的程度与空间一定程度上受制于资本项目不完全开放、利率不完全市场化、金融市场不发达及汇率不稳定。然而经验分析表明,人民币国际化的最大限制性因素来自于美元锚的不稳定：(1)在人民币很大程度仍然盯住或者参考美元的条件下,美元的趋势性贬值压力最终转换成人民币的单边升值预期,并引发国际资本的流入,从而形成被动的货币投放和通货膨胀压力,影响人民币内外价值稳定,从而削弱人民币作为国际货币的吸引力；(2)美元锚的不稳定及人民币升值预期减弱了中国央行的货币政策独立性,从而数量型工具而非价格型工具成为常态,这种政策组合难以使中国的利率结构达到最优化,从而导致中国内部的经济增长结构失衡,使得投资过度集中在无效率的生产部门,而且由投资所形成的过剩产能被销售到国外,最终形成贸易顺差,并进一步形成国内货币政策的制约,由此所产生的中国经济内外不平衡才是制约人民币国际化未来潜在空间与可持续性的根本问题；(3)对美元锚的过度依赖还通过影响中国金融业发展的广度与深度从而对人民币国际化产生冲击效应。
基于理论与实证的分析,人民币国际化的现实选择是有序退出美元锚,以一篮子货币为参照系,这对于人民币国际化的路径选择而言,有以下几重含义：(1)通过人民币有效汇率的动态调节,实现国际收支的总量平衡,意味着与中国经常项目存在逆差的国家,将成为人民币境外结算与流通的潜在区域,而这些区域则主要是中国国际收支逆差的主要来源方即东亚新兴市场；(2)选择香港作为中国的离岸金融中心,从而为中国资本项目自由化、利率市场化改革提供试验场,同时为国际投资者提供了人民币计价的金融工具,从而对冲投资者在参与人民币贸易结算和投资收益中的外汇风险,这是实现人民币国际的过渡性战略。(3)如果人民币能够实现价值稳定,则有可能加入并逐步扩大其在SDR中的份额,这将是人民币成为国际储备货币的关键一步。
在人民币汇率参考一篮子货币的预设情景下,人民币实现国际化的路线图可被概括为“两个三步走计划”：(1)从人民币使用的区域范围来讲,地域层面的人民币“三步走”路线图应该是起步于周边化、延伸于东亚新兴市场国家,并最终覆盖于全球主要国家。(2)从人民币履行国际货币的职能视角看,货币职能层面的“三步走”路线图应该起步于跨境贸易结算货币功能,延伸于全球主要投资货币之一,并最终发展成为具有竞争性的、可部分替代美元的国际储备货币。作为实施“两个三步走”计划的中间战略,香港应该逐步成为人民币离岸中心,从而为中国资本项目自由化、利率市场化改革提供试验场,同时为国际投资者提供了人民币计价的金融工具,从而对冲投资者在参与人民币贸易结算和投资收益中的外汇风险。
The goals of RMB internationalization are elaborated in two aspects. In private field, RMB will become the medium and settlement currency of international trade, the means of value store of financial institutions and the issuance currency of international bond. In public field, it will become intervention currency and reserve currency, the standard of deferred compensation of Sovereign Bond of countries and, eventually, the reserve currency and intervention currency of main global central banks with being widely accepted and used overseas. But so far, public and private fields, the dollar is still the dominant international currency, and RMB is still in progress.
Theoretically, the performance of the internationalization of a country's currency depends on factors followed:the enormous scale of economy and trade, financial market which is open and developed, confidence in stability of the value of currency and network externalities. It is showed in some empirical studies that the internationalization of currency correlates positively with the economic strength of a country. In history, dollar took the place of pound, which happened when American became the largest economy and creditor nation worldly. Euro become the second-largest international money next to dollar globally, which is attributable to the scale of economy and trade in euro area and the support for stable strong euro, as the independent European Central Bank set the stability of the value of currency as the primary goal. The internationalization of Yen began in the 1970s when Japan became the second-largest economy in the world with an average annual economic growth rate of 10 percent continuously for 20 years. Taking some potential negative impacts on domestic financial market into consideration, however, decision makers of Japan didn't pushing forward the process of internationalization of Yen positively until the eruption of Asia financial crisis and the birth of Euro. In retrospect, however, the international application scope of Yen was narrow, fairly. This reflects the fact that the negative attitudes towards the internationalization of Yen of Japanese officials, domestic financial market without opening up and the large-scope fluctuation of Yen exchange rate weakened the application in global investment and trade of Yen.
Obviously, tremendous progresses have been made on cross-border trading settlement and financing and investment since 2009, however, RMB internationalization is, in the scope of the world, still in its beginning stage, presently. From the aspects of international monetary functions, RMB is neither functioning properly on value storage, nor intervention currency and reserve currency which is officially used. Although RMB has became the carrier and priced currency of trade and finance transactions, its use sphere is fairly narrow。
Empirically, the degree and scope of the internationalization of RMB, to a certain extent, are bound to factors followed:capital programs which are not open comprehensively, interest rate which does not marketly decided completely, underdeveloped financial market and unstable exchange rates. However, our experience analysis shows that the main restrictive factor was the instability of Dollars anchor. (1) RMB, to a great extent, still under the condition of referring to dollars, the final result of depreciation pressure of dollar convert to the unilateral appreciation prospects of RMB, and caused international capital inflows, thus, formed passive money supply and inflation pressure, and influenced the value stability of RMB, consequently weaken the attraction of RMB as the international currency. (2) The instability of dollars anchor and the appreciation of RMB were weakening the monetary policy independence of Chinese central bank. Therefore, quantitative tools and non-price type tools becomes the norm use, which, however, can hardly make the interest rates structure of China to reach the optimization. Thus cause the internal economic growth of China in unbalanced structure, make the investment gathered excessively in inefficient production department, and the production of the excess investment has been sold to foreign countries. Finally trade surplus were formed, and further domestic monetary policy restriction was formed. Thereby bought out the internal and external imbalance of China economy was the root cause of restricting the potential future space of RMB internationalization and sustainability. (3) For the excessive dependence on dollar anchor through impact the breadth and depth of China's financial industry development, and then exert knock-on effects on RMB internationalization.
Based on the theory and empirical analysis, the realistic choice of RMB internationalization is exit dollars anchor orderly. With reference to the basket of currencies, this comes to regarding the path choice of RMB internationalization has several meanings as following:(1) through the dynamic adjustment of the RMB effective rate to realize the amount balance of international payments, this means the country which deficit of current-account always existed with China will become the potential areas of RMB settlement and circulation. While these areas are just the emerging East Asian market which was the main source of payments deficit of China. (2) Choose Hong Kong as the offshore financial center of China, thus for the capital account liberalization and market-oriented interest rate reform of China provide testing ground. At the same time provide RMB-denominated financial instruments to international investors. Thus hedge foreign exchange risk when the investors participate in the RMB trade settlement and investment income. This is the transitional realization strategy of RMB international. (3) If the RMB realized value stability, it will be likely to join and gradually expand its share of the SDR. This will be the key step of RMB become to the international reserve currency.
The RMB exchange rate with the reference to a basket of currencies preset situations, RMB accomplish internationalized map can be summarized as "two three-step program": From the RMB areas used by extent, regional level of RMB "three steps" should be started in peripheral melt, extension in East Asian emerging market countries, eventually, to cover the major countries worldwide. (2) From the perspective of fulfill international monetary functions of RMB, monetary function levels of "three steps" should be started in cross-border trade currency function, one of the main investment outspread global currency, and eventually become the competitive, can partial replace dollar international reserve currency. As the middle of the strategy of implementation of "two three-step plan", Hong Kong should be gradually become an offshore RMB centre, therefore, for the capital account liberalization and market-oriented interest rate reform of China provide testing ground. At the same time provides RMB-denominated financial instruments to international investors, thus hedge foreign exchange risk when the investors participate in the RMB trade settlement and investment income.
引文
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1Kiyotaki, Wright, On money as a medium of exchange, Journal of Political Economy 97,pp927-954,1989.
1外汇市场的交易成本基本上是一种固定成本,它主要包括交易和结算系统的软件及硬件装置费用。这些固定投资在处理不同的交易量之间是无差异的,因此每多处理一项交易的边际成本是0,而平均成本下降。
2在实证方面的文献中,外汇储备份额这个指标普遍用于衡量一国货币的国际影响力,我们遵从这种做法,将它作为刻画美元国际货币主宰地位的变量。
3Barry Eichengreen (1998):The Euro as a Reserve Currency, Journal of the Japanese and International Economics 12,pp483-50.
1这里主要选择了几个对美双边贸易中存在大量贸易盈余国家的实证结果。
1殷剑峰,人民币国际化的路线图,中国金融40人论坛,2009-05-04
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1李稻葵和刘霖林.双轨制推进人民币国际化[J].中国金融.2008(10).
2钟伟.略论人民币的国际化进程.世界经济[J].2002(3)
3赵海宽.人民币可能发展成为世界货币之一[J].经济研究.2003(5)
1巴曙松.金融危机后的人民币国际化之路：从周边化起步.国研网.2010
1Kenen, Peter, "Currency Internationalization—An Overview", paper, Bok-BIS Seminar on currency internationalization:Lessons from the global financial crisis and prosects for the future in Asia and the Pacific. Seoul,19-20 March,2009
1Kiyotaki, Wright, On money as a medium of exchange, Journal of Political Economy 97,pp927-954,1989.
1外汇市场的交易成本基本上是一种固定成本,它主要包括交易和结算系统的软件及硬件装置费用。这些固定投资在处理不同的交易量之间是无差异的,因此每多处理一项交易的边际成本是0,而平均成本下降。
2在实证方面的文献中,外汇储备份额这个指标普遍用于衡量一国货币的国际影响力,我们遵从这种做法,将它作为刻画美元国际货币主宰地位的变量。
3Barry Eichengreen (1998):The Euro as a Reserve Currency, Journal of the Japanese and International Economics 12,pp483-50.
1这里主要选择了几个对美双边贸易中存在大量贸易盈余国家的实证结果。
1殷剑峰,人民币国际化的路线图,中国金融40人论坛,2009-05-04
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