摘要
多种因素均会导致地面沉降现象,地面沉降变形已成为制约社会可持续发展的
一个重要因素。地面沉降变形研究的焦点在于地面沉降变形预计模型与监测技术的
研究。
本文在分析引起地面沉降原因的基础上,针对引起地面沉降变形的主要因素
——地下水疏降和固体矿物开采,分析、研究了其引起地面沉降变形的内在机理和
发展过程,推导出地下水疏降和地下固体矿物开采引起的地面沉降变形计算的随机
介质模型,给出了具体的计算方法和计算步骤,并将固体矿物开采和岩土体疏水等
导致地表沉降视为相互独立的事件,解决了固体矿物开采和地下水疏降共同作用下
的地面沉降变形的线性叠加计算问题。利用现代控制理论和系统论的观点,把岩体
作为一个系统来研究,利用系统辩识的方法,结合位移反分析方法,提出了“等效
模型”和“等价参数”的概念,建立了地面沉降变形的模型识别和参数识别的理论
和方法,为解决地面沉降变形计算模型的选取、模型结构的优化和计算参数的确定
问题提供了新途径。从模型误差与参数误差、测量误差、岩体结构及识别误差等方
面,研究了地面沉降变形参数识别的稳定性问题。总结、分析了地面沉降变形预计
过程,研制了基于GIS的地面沉降变形预计系统,实现了地面沉降变形预计一体化。
分析、研究了地面沉降变形的各种监测方法,着重就应用合成孔径雷达干涉测量
(INSAR)技术进行地面沉降变形监测问题的探讨研究,发展和完善了地面沉降变
形监测方法。
Land subsidence and deformation can be caused by many factors. It is a more important factor to restrict the society sustainable development. The key point of land subsidence study is to study on the prediction modeling and monitoring technology of land subsidence.Based on the analysis of the factors caused land subsidence, the internal mechanism and development process of land subsidence caused by two mainly factors of dewatering and underground mining have been studyed in this thesis. The random medium model and methods have been established to calculate the land subsidence and deformation caused by dewatering or underground minging and both of them. The prediction problem of land subsidence and deformation caused by single factor and many factors has been solved. Based on the viewpoint of model control theory and systematology, and combined the method of system identification and displacement anti-analysis, the concepts of equivalent model and parameters have been introduced. The theories and methods of model and parameters identification of land subsidence have been established. A new approach has been provided to solve the problems of model selection, model structure optimization and calculation parameters determining for land subsidence and deformation prediction. The stability study of parameters identification of land subsidence and deformation has been discussed from aspects of model and parameters errors, surveying errors, rock strata structure and parameters identification errors. The prediction system of land subsidence and deformation has been developed on GIS. The land subsidence monitoring methods have been sumed up. The use of InSAR technology to monitoring the land subsidence has been mainly discussed. The methods of monitoring the land subsidence have been soundly developed.
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