摘要
水库汛限水位动态控制是实现洪水资源化的一条重要途径,本论文结合安康水库系统研究了汛限水位动态控制的理论与方法。首先分析了安康水库入库洪水规律、水雨情预报信息精度及水库蓄泄能力,在此基础上结合水库的工程特性,提出基于预报径流深的防洪预报调度模式；其次采用两种不同方法对水库汛期进行划分并对其结果进行评定比较,通过对不同分期的洪水调洪计算,得到不同分期内的水库汛限水位动态控制域；最后,对防洪预报调度下的预报信息误差风险进行计算,通过建立不同汛限水位下的调洪最高水位与频率相关关系,推求出其对应的风险率与效益。论文的主要研究成果如下：
(1)采用黄金分割法划分洪水量级,对安康水库实测入库洪水进行概率分析,确定各量级洪水的分布规律和年可能发生次数及相应概率,并对峰型特点和径流年型与洪水关系进行分析；为水库汛期分期及汛限水位动态控制提供依据；
(2)论证了安康水库实施汛限水位动态控制的可行性,着重分析了水库的水雨情预报精度及其可用性,建立了安康水库洪水预报误差的P-Ⅲ型分布；对降雨预报作了“三率”精度分析,对安康水库降雨情况进行马尔可夫概率预测,延长了降雨预报信息的预见期；最后分析了安康水库的蓄泄能力；
(3)根据防洪预报调度的机理,推求了安康水库1983年典型洪水的设计洪水过程及净雨过程,并结合安康水库工程实例,综合水库调节能力和流域汇流时间等因素,确定以6h径流深作为调洪指标,采用逐级调节法制定了防洪预报调度规则,并选取实测洪水进行验证；
(4)采用两种不同的汛期分期理论：分形理论与模糊集理论,分别对安康水库汛期进行划分,并首次提出基于不同权重因子的均方差评判指标进行汛期分期结果的判定,对于安康水库,采用分形理论的分期更合理；在选定的分期内,进行分期设计洪水演算,并推求分期段的汛限水位,做为汛限水位动态控制的上限,采用现行汛限水位作为下限,得到基于汛期分期的汛限水位动态控制域,并在此基础上,提出考虑降雨预报等级的汛限水位分期动态控制方式；
(5)对预报信息下的防洪预报调度模式和基于分期汛限水位动态控制下的风险率进行了推求；通过建立汛限水位-调洪高水位-频率复相关的方法,得到汛限水位动态控制下的风险率,以及不同汛限水位下的风险-效益对比结果,这恰好也辅证了分期汛限水位选择的合理性。
The dynamic control of limited water level for reservoir is a significant way to realize flood water utilization.The theory and method of dynamic control of limited water level is studied systematacially in this paper. Combined with actual situation of Ankang reservoir, the mode of flood prevention forecast operation is put forward firstly based on the analysis of flood law, precision forecast of flood and rain and that reliability, and then the flood season are divided by two ways, the result is evaluated, the region of limited water level in different stage is get by operation of the stage design flood. The risk of forecast information inaccuracy is checked for flood prevention forecast operation, and the risk and benefits are calculated by establishing the relation between frequency and operation water level in different limited water level finally. Then main contributions are as follows:
(1) The probability statistic of inflow flood is analyzed, after the flood distribution law of different flood magnitude is compartmentalized by the golden-section algorithm, times of annual probable are computed, and then the characteristic of peak model and the relation between floods to different annual runoff are analyzed. All the results provided certain theoretical basis for the flood seasons division and dynamic control of limited water level.
(2) The feasibility of dynamic control of limited water level for Ankang reservoir is lucubrated, the usability of precision forecast of flood and rain is analyzed majorly:the distribution type P-III for forecast information inaccuracy is established, and the rainfall forecast is analyzed, taking the Molmogorov-predict for prolonging the leading time of rainfall, at last the storage and discharge capacity of Ankang reservoir is analyzed.
(3) According to mechanism of flood prevention forecast operation, the design flood and net rain hydrograph are got by the typical flood 1983, combining with actual situation of Ankang reservoir, considering the capability of reservoir and conflux time etc. the six-hour inflow forecast deep is taken as the operation index. The flood prevention forecast operation rules is made by operating gradually, and then put actual flood as verification.
(4) The flood seasonal phases are divided respectively by the two different flood season division theory:fractal and fuzzy set. The division of flood seasonal phases for reservoir and the evaluation method based on MSE index which considering power factor is put forward firstly, while the result is more reasonable for Ankang reservoir under theory fractal; the stage design flood and the limited water level by stage are calculated in the divided phases, which is taken as the upper limit for limited water level, and the now-using limited water level as the lower limit, while the region of limited water level by season division is got, and the way of dynamic control of limited water level by stage considering the grading of rainfall is put forward,based on all that.
(5) The risk of the mode of flood prevention forecast operation based on forecast information and of the limited water level by stage are counted; the risk of dynamic control of limited water level is got by the way that establishing the relation among the different limited water level, maximum operation level and frequency, and then the comparison between risk and benefit is taken, all the results put proof to the rationality of the limited water level by stage.
引文
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