摘要
房地产业的增长和衰退直接影响到国民经济的增长速度,而在目前我国房地产业发展存在着结构性矛盾突出,与经济社会发展不协调等问题,因此对房地产业的效率进行分析具有重要的现实意义。本文以研究房地产业的内部和外部效率及房地产业的资源的利用状况为主要内容,首先对动态时序DEA模型的缺陷进行了分析,在此基础上提出了一种利用灰关联度和序数权重相结合来改进时序DEA模型的方法。并采用改进后的动态时序DEA模型对我国区域房地产业的内部有效性进行了实证分析;其次采用动态网络DEA模型来测算房地产业的外部有效性;最后通过引入虚拟变量的方法对复合DEA模型进行了改进。本文的创新点主要有:1)理论方面,采用灰色关联度和序数权重对时序DEA模型进行了改进,解决了时序DEA效率值评估结果过大的问题;通过引入虚拟变量对复合DEA模型进行了改进,解决了传统复合DEA模型在某些情况下分辨率较差的问题。2)实践方面,采用时序DEA模型和网络DEA模型对房地产业有效性进行了分析,得到以下结论:①经济处于加速发展阶段的地区的房地产业存在投资过热,销售额不足,房价过高的问题;②经济处于起飞阶段的地区的从业人员冗余比较严重,应适当精简冗员,并注意加强房地产业专业人才的培养;③经济处于加速发展阶段的地区内部效率高而外部效率较低,经济处于起飞阶段的地区内部效率低而外部效率高,应当加强这种不同经济发展阶段的地区的协调发展。
Growth and recession of the real estate have a direct effect on national economic growth. But there were many problems in China’s Real estate development, such as investment structural problem and lack of coordination with economic and social development. So to assess the efficiency of the real estate industry was of great realistic significance. In this paper, internal and external efficiency and resource utilization of real estate was researched on. Firstly, defects of the timing DEA model were analyzed and further were improved by grey relation and ordinal weights. These work made timing DEA model more applicable to analysis efficiency of the real estate industry. And a good result was gained through data analyses by using this improved model; in the second part, according to characteristics that interaction between real estate and its external environment was a continuous process, network DEA model was used to measure external efficiency of real estate; in the third part, virtual variables was introduced into compsosite DEA model to improve poor distinction problem of composite DEA. And improved composite DEA model was applied in analyses on the extent of the use of internal or external factors of real estate. In this paper, the main innovations include: 1)Theory, through the use of grey incidence and ordinal weight , the problem that assessment value in dynamic DEA model was too large was avoided; through the introduction of virtual variable, the composite DEA model was improved in poor distinction aspect. 2) Practice, Time series DEA and Network DEA was used to calculate internal and external efficiency of real estate, and the main conclusions include:①real estate of areas in economics accelerated development stage were in problems of over-investment, lack of sales, high prices;②real estate of areas in economics take-off stage was in more serious employees redundant, it should be to strengthen the training of professionals.③areas in economics accelerated development stage were in higher internal and lower external efficiency, and areas in economics take-off stage were in lower internal and higher external efficiency.
引文
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