摘要
水库预报调度作为水库控制运用重要的非工程措施之一,在确保防洪安全,提高洪水资源利用率,充分发挥水库防洪与兴利综合效益等方面起着重要的作用。随着计算机技术的迅速发展和预报优化理论研究的深入,水利科学工作者几乎尝试应用了各种算法来解决水文预报和水库优化调度问题,并且取得了丰富的研究成果和一定的实践效果,但由于在水文中长期预报方面缺乏机理上的认知突破,在水库优化调度方面一些新方法仍存在理论与应用上的问题,所以尚有大量的基础工作、理论研究、模型与方法改进等课题需要进一步的研究和解决。本文以雅砻江流域下游河段二滩水电站水库为研究工程背景,在详细分析其入库径流特性和水库运行特性的前提下,重点研究二滩水电站中长期径流预报及隐随机优化调度模型,具体研究成果和结论概括如下:
(1)分析二滩水电站入库径流特性,包括年入库径流、月入库径流的变化规律及年内汛期和非汛期的变化规律等几个方面,从而对径流变化的内在规律有了深入的了解,为中长期径流预报提供了参考依据;同时根据1958～2006年48年径流系列资料,进行水库调节计算,对流量、水库水位、水头、出力等多年运行特性也进行了统计分析,这些分析结果为预测二滩水电站的径流变化过程提供了重要参考,为二滩水电站的科学管理和优化运行提供了科学依据。
(2)针对二滩水电站的实际径流特性,分别建立了月径流、汛期分段以及年径流预报模型,通过对二滩水电站1958～2006年入库径流的预报研究,发现月径流、非汛期和年径流定量预报结果精度较高,合格率均在80%以上,可在实际运行中使用;同时由于汛期入库径流受降雨因素影响较大,单纯依靠径流资料建模以期提高定量预报精度的难度较大,所以本文采用的Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ三级预报方法并使汛期预报结果达到了可利用的程度。
(3)根据二滩水电站预报调度规律,采用隐随机优化调度方法,建立二滩隐随机优化调度模型,以回归分析为基本手段,研究了最优调度函数,包括是否考虑径流预报以及汛期函数分段的优化调度函数形式,指明了汛期和非汛期由于具有不同的径流特性和运行方式,导致调度函数也有所不同。最后在充分分析回归因子在实际调度中的可获得性且考虑预报误差影响的情况下,根据所求的优化调度函数,绘制了水库优化调度图,制定了水库优化调度函数的实用化规则,以此指导水库的长期运行。
As an important non-engineering measure, forecast and control operation of reservoirs play an important role on guaranteeing safety of flood prevention,increasing efficiency of flood resources utilization and exerting comprehensive benefits of reservoirs. With the development of the technology of computer and the theory of optimization and forecasting, researchers of hydraulic engineering have utilized many different algorithms to solve the problems of hydrological forecasting and optimal operation of reservoirs system. A large amount of results have been made and come into effect. However, there are still a lot of problems by using these new methods duo to lack of reorganization of the mechanics of hydrological forecasting. Therefore, large numbers of subjects in basic work, theory study and improvement of models should be studied and solved further. This dissertation focuses on Ertan hydropower station of Yalong River basin downstream reach. On the premise of analysis the characteristics of the inflow runoff and operation, focusing on Medium and Long Term Runoff Forecasting and Implicit Stochastic Optimal Operation Model for Ertan hydropower station, the contents and results of this paper are listed, as follows.
(1) Analysis of the characteristics of inflow runoff of Ertan Hydropower Station, including the change law of annual runoff, monthly runoff, flood season, non-flood season and so on, and deeply understand the inherent law of runoff variation, the results provide reference for medium and long term runoff forecasting; At the same time, regulating calculation of reservoir in series of annual runoff data measured of 48 years from 1958 to 2006 is performed, statistics analysis of operation characteristics of flow, reservoir water level, water head and output for mang years, the results provide important reference for forcasting the variation process of runoff, and provide scientific basis for scientific management and optimal operation of Ertan hydropower station.
(2) This paper aims at the characteristics of the real runoff, sets up monthly runoff, division of the flood season and annual runoff forcast models respectively. Through forcasting research of the inflow into Ertan hydropower station from 1958 to 2006, the results show that monthly runoff, non-flood season and annual runoff reach a good precision, the qualification rates are all above 80%, which would be applied in practical operation. Meanwhile, because of inflow of flood season deeply influenced by rainfall, it is difficult to set up model only depending on runoff date, so this paper usesⅠ、Ⅱ、Ⅲstage forecast which makes the results can be used.
(3) Implicit Stochastic Optimal Operation Model is set up by taking Implicit Stochastic Optimal Operation method, on the basis of forecast and operation rules, by the way of regression analysis, researched optimal operation functions, including whether runoff forcast and division of operation functions of flood reason should be considerd, to show clearly the different runoff characteristics and operation mode of reservoir in flood reason and in non-flood reason lead to different operation functions. In the end, on the basic of intensive analysis, the procurability of regression factor in practical application, according to optimal operation functions, drawed reservoir optimal operation chart and established practical rules of reservoir optimal operation functions, in order to provide a giding in long-term operation of Ertan hydropower station.
引文
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