中国大豆压榨企业空间格局及其演变机制
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摘要
随着中国居民生活水平的不断提高,国内肉蛋奶的消费需求逐年增长,致使作为主要饲料蛋白原料的豆粕需求也不断增加。而豆粕是大豆压榨行业的主要产品,因此,大豆生产、大豆压榨、饲料生产和畜禽养殖组成了一个密切关联的产业系统,大豆原料生产与供给区分布、饲料生产和畜禽养殖业布局又会对大豆压榨行业空间格局的形成产生重要影响。以大豆压榨企业为研究对象,通过产业链视角,运用平均最近邻分析、核密度分析方法,研究了1996-2016年间中国大豆压榨企业的空间格局演变规律与集聚特征,然后构建了条件Logit模型探讨影响中国大豆压榨企业区位选择的主要因素。结果表明:中国大豆压榨企业空间集聚程度较高,自1996年以来,经历了从大豆主产区向沿海港口城市集聚再沿长江、哈大铁路、陇海铁路等交通运输线路扩散的演化特点。各地原料资源禀赋、运费成本、市场规模与潜力、集聚经济以及政府政策都会不同程度地影响中国大豆压榨企业的空间格局,并且不同时期影响大豆压榨企业空间格局的因素显著性及强度都会有所变化。2000-2005年原料资源禀赋、运输成本、豆粕市场规模以及集聚经济发挥着较大作用;2006-2010年间集聚经济和政府政策共同主导了大豆压榨企业的区位决策;2010年以后市场潜力与集聚不经济则表现出更强的作用。
With the improvement of the living standards of Chinese residents, the domestic demand for meat, eggs and milk has increased year by year. As the main food protein, soybean meal is the main product of the soybean processing industry. As an important part of the soybean industry chain, the soybean processing industry has influence on the distribution of soybean production, feed, and animal husbandry. This paper chooses the soybean processing plants from 1996 to 2016 as the study object. We explore the spatial pattern of China's soybean processing plants by using the average nearest neighbor analysis and nuclear density analysis method. Then we analyze the factors that influence the layout of soybean processing plants in different periods using the conditional Logit regression model. The results show that since1996, the layout areas of China's processing plants have shifted from the main soybean producing areas to the coastal ports to soybean market area. Up to now, a belt-like pattern has formed, which takes the coastal port cities as the core, and the Yangtze River, Harbin-Dalian Railway and Longhai Railway as diffusion paths. Raw material supply, transportation cost,market size and potential, agglomeration and policy are all important factors which affect the spatial pattern of soybean processing plants and the main factors are different in different periods.Raw material supply, transportation cost, market size and agglomeration have the most important influence on the layout decisions of soybean processing plants from 2000 to 2015. But the agglomeration and policy were the dominant factors from 2006 to 2010 and it turned into market potential after 2010. The change of distribution of raw materials and soybean meal market lead to the change of transportation cost. The cost and expansion of soybean meal market attracted plants agglomeration from domestic soybean producing areas to the coastal port areas. With the agglomeration in the coastal ports, the increased competition among enterprises promoted the diffusion of enterprises from coastal port areas to soybean meal consumption areas.
With the improvement of the living standards of Chinese residents, the domestic demand for meat, eggs and milk has increased year by year. As the main food protein, soybean meal is the main product of the soybean processing industry. As an important part of the soybean industry chain, the soybean processing industry has influence on the distribution of soybean production, feed, and animal husbandry. This paper chooses the soybean processing plants from 1996 to 2016 as the study object. We explore the spatial pattern of China's soybean processing plants by using the average nearest neighbor analysis and nuclear density analysis method. Then we analyze the factors that influence the layout of soybean processing plants in different periods using the conditional Logit regression model. The results show that since1996, the layout areas of China's processing plants have shifted from the main soybean producing areas to the coastal ports to soybean market area. Up to now, a belt-like pattern has formed, which takes the coastal port cities as the core, and the Yangtze River, Harbin-Dalian Railway and Longhai Railway as diffusion paths. Raw material supply, transportation cost,market size and potential, agglomeration and policy are all important factors which affect the spatial pattern of soybean processing plants and the main factors are different in different periods.Raw material supply, transportation cost, market size and agglomeration have the most important influence on the layout decisions of soybean processing plants from 2000 to 2015. But the agglomeration and policy were the dominant factors from 2006 to 2010 and it turned into market potential after 2010. The change of distribution of raw materials and soybean meal market lead to the change of transportation cost. The cost and expansion of soybean meal market attracted plants agglomeration from domestic soybean producing areas to the coastal port areas. With the agglomeration in the coastal ports, the increased competition among enterprises promoted the diffusion of enterprises from coastal port areas to soybean meal consumption areas.
引文
[1]刘爱民,于潇萌,李燕玲.基于供求平衡表的大豆市场预警分析及模拟.自然资源学报, 2009, 24(3):423-430.[LIU A M, YU X M, LI Y L. The prewarning analysis and simulation of soybean market based on supply demand balance sheet.Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(3):423-430.]
[2] WEBER A.李刚剑译.工业区位论.北京:商务印书馆, 1997.[WEBER A. Trandlated by LI J G. Industrial Location Theory. Beijing:The Commercial Press, 1997.]
[3]王守礼.经济空间秩序.北京:商务印书馆, 1995.[WANG S L. Economic Spatial Order. Beijing:The Commercial Press, 1995.]
[4]王中昭,黎鹏.边境区位利益博弈与企业行为效应分析.中南财经政法大学学报, 2007,(6):129-133, 140.[WANG Z Z, LI P. Analysis on the benefit gaming of border location and the effect of corporate behavior. Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, 2007,(6):129-133, 140.]
[5]费洪平.中国企业组织空间联系模式研究.地理科学, 1996, 16(1):18-25.[FEI H P. Spatial linkages of industrial organizations in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 1996, 16(1):18-25.]
[6]金相郁. 20世纪区位理论的五个发展阶段及其评述.经济地理, 2004, 24(3):294-298.[JIN X Y. Survey and evaluation of location theory in 20 century by five development stage. Economic Geography, 2004, 24(3):294-298.]
[7] KRUGMAN P. First nature, second nature and metropolitan location. Journal of Regional Science, 1993, 133(2):129-144.
[8] NICHOLAS C, ABAY M. What explains the location of industry in Britain, 1871-1931. Journal of Economic Geography, 2005, 5:499-518.
[9] HEAD K, MAYER T. Market potential and the location of Japanese investment in the European Union. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86:959-72.
[10] HOLL A. Manufacturing location and impacts of road transport infrastructure:Empirical evidence from Spain. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1999, 29:197-218.
[11] AMITI M, JAVORCIK B S. Trade costs and location of foreign firms in China. Journal of Development Economics,2008, 85:129-49.
[12]叶素云,叶振宇.中国工业企业的区位选择:市场潜力、资源禀赋与税负水平.南开经济研究, 2012,(5):94-110.[YE S Y, YE Z Y. Location choice of industrial firms in China:Market potential, resource endowment and tax burdent level.Nankai Economic Studies, 2012,(5):94-110.]
[13]张晓平,孙磊.北京市制造业空间格局演化及影响因子分析.地理学报, 2012, 67(10):1308-1316.[ZHANG X P,SUN L. Manufacture restructuring and main determinants in Beijing metropolitan area. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012,67(10):1308-1316.]
[14]吕卫国,陈雯.制造业区位选择与南京城市空间重构.地理学报, 2009, 64(2):142-152.[LYU W G, CHEN W. Manufacturing industry enterprises location choice and the urban spatial restructuring in Nanjing. Acta Geographica Sinica,2009, 64(2):142-152.]
[15]贺灿飞,谢秀珍,潘峰华.中国制造业省区分布及其影响因素.地理研究, 2008, 27(3):623-635.[HE C F, XIE X Z,PAN F H. Location studies of Chinese manufacturing industries. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(3):623-635.]
[16]刘爱民,封志明,阎丽珍,等.基于耕地资源约束的中国大豆生产能力研究.自然资源学报, 2003, 18(4):430-436.[LIU A M, FENG Z M, YAN L Z, et al. Study on soybean throughput based on cultivated land resources restriction in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(4):430-436.]
[17]蒋慕东,王思明.二十世纪中国大豆生产及其发展动因分析.中国农史, 2006,(3):31-40.[JIANG M D, WANG S M.The anslysis of the production and motivation of the development of Chinese soybean in the 20thcentury. Agricultural History of China, 2006,(3):31-40.]
[18]高颖,田维明.基于引力模型的中国大豆贸易影响因素分析.农业技术经济, 2008,(1):27-33.[GAO Y, TIAN W M.Analysis of influential factors of soybean trade in China based on gravity model. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2008,(1):27-33.]
[19]谷强平,周静,杜吉到.基于贸易视角的中国大豆产业安全分析.大豆科学, 2015, 34(2):314-319.[GU Q P, ZHOU J,DU J D. China's soybean industry safety analysis based on the perspective of trade. Soybean Science, 2015, 34(2):314-319.]
[20]杨树果.产业链视角下的中国大豆产业经济研究.北京:中国农业大学, 2014.[YANG S G. Economics of soybean industry in China from industry chain perspective. Beijing:China Agricultural University, 2014.]
[21]赵殷钰,郑志浩.中国大豆和大豆油需求:基于SDAIDS模型的实证分析.中国农村经济, 2015,(11):15-28.[ZHAO Y H, ZHENG Z H. Demand of soybean and soybean oil in China:An empirical analysis based on SDAIDS model. Chinese Rural Economy, 2015,(11):15-28.]
[22]刘爱民.中国大豆产业格局与大豆进口政策.中国农业信息, 2003,(2):9-11.[LIU A M. China soybean industry layout and soybean import policy. China Agricultural Information, 2003,(2):9-11.]
[23]王永刚,王永强,刘志雄.中国植物油工业发展的现状与瓶颈.农产品加工:学刊, 2005,(3):35-37.[WANG Y G.WANG Y Q, LIU Z X. Present situation and problems of vegetable oil processing industry in China. Academic Periodical of Farm Products Processing, 2005,(3):35-37.]
[24]毛学峰.中国大豆进口与大豆产业.北京:中国农业出版社, 2009.[MAO X F. China's Soybean Imports and Soybean Industry. Beijing:China Agricultural Press, 2009.]
[25]钟莉莉,徐超.中国植物油加工业产业集聚现状研究.东方企业文化, 2010,(14):233-234.[ZHONG L L, XU C. A study on the status of industrial agglomeration of vegetable oil processing industry in China. Oriental Enterprise Culture, 2010,(14):233-234.]
[26]陈君子,刘大均,谢双玉.武汉市旅游景区空间结构演化.热带地理, 2013, 33(3):349-355.[CHEN J Z, LIU D J, XIE S Y. Evolution of the spatial structure of the scenic spots in Wuhan. Tropical Geography, 2013, 33(3):349-355.]
[27]王远飞,何洪林.空间数据分析方法.北京:科学出版社, 2007:58-60.[WANG Y F, HE H L. Spatial Data Analysis Method. Beijing:Science Press, 2007:58-60.]
[28]蔡雪娇,吴志峰,程炯.基于核密度估算的路网格局和景观破碎化分析.生态学杂志, 2012,(1):158-164.[CAI X J,WU Z F, CHENG J. Analysis of network pattern and landscape fragmentation based on kernel density estimation. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2012,(1):158-164.]
[29] CARLTON D W. Why new firms locate where they do:An econometric model. In:WHEATON W. Interregional Movements and Regional Growth. Washington D C:The Urban Institute, 1979:13-50.
[30] CHENG S, STOUGH R. Location decisions of Japanese new manufacturing plants in China:A discrete-choice analysis.Annals of Regional Science, 2006, 40:369-387.
[31]余珮,孙永平.集聚效应对跨国公司在华区位选择的影响.经济研究, 2011, 46(1):71-82.[YU P, SUN Y P. The impacts of agglomeration on MNE's location choice in China. Economic Research Journal, 2011, 46(1):71-82.]
[32]赵俊竹,孙铁山,李国平.中国汽车制造业集聚与企业区位选择.地理学报, 2014, 69(6):850-862.[ZHAO J Z, SUN T S, LI G P. Agglomeration and firm location choice of China's automobile manufacturing industry. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(6):850-862.]
[33]杨在宾,刘丽,杜明宏.我国饲料业的发展及饲料资源供求浅析.饲料工业, 2008, 29(19):45-49.[YANG Z B, LIU L,DU M H. Analysis on the development of feed industry in China and the supply and demand of feed resources. Feed industry, 2008, 29(19):45-49.]
[34]韩昕儒,陈永福,钱小平.中国目前饲料粮需求量究竟有多少.农业技术经济, 2014,(8):60-68.[HAN X R, CHEN Y F, QIAN X P. What is the current demand for feed grain in China. Agricultural Technology Economy, 2014,(8):60-68.]
[35]黄娉婷,张晓平.京津冀都市圈汽车产业空间格局演化研究.地理研究, 2014, 33(1):83-95.[HUANG P T, ZHANG X P. Spatial evolution of automobile industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region. Geographical Research,2014, 33(1):83-95.]
[36] HONG J J. Firm heterogeneity and location choices:Evidence from foreign manufacturing. Urban Studies, 2009, 46(10):2143-2157.
[37]贺灿飞,魏后凯.信息成本、集聚经济与中国外商投资区位.中国工业经济, 2001,(9):38-45.[HE C F, WEI H K. Information cost, agglomeration economy and location of foreign investment in China. China Industrial Economics, 2001,(9):38-45.]
[38]唐晓云.中国旅游发展政策的历史演进(1949-2013):一个量化研究的视角.旅游学刊, 2014, 29(8):15-27.[TANG X Y. The evolution of Chinese tourism development policies(1949-2013):A quantitative perspective. Tourism Tribune,2014, 29(8):15-27.]
[2] WEBER A.李刚剑译.工业区位论.北京:商务印书馆, 1997.[WEBER A. Trandlated by LI J G. Industrial Location Theory. Beijing:The Commercial Press, 1997.]
[3]王守礼.经济空间秩序.北京:商务印书馆, 1995.[WANG S L. Economic Spatial Order. Beijing:The Commercial Press, 1995.]
[4]王中昭,黎鹏.边境区位利益博弈与企业行为效应分析.中南财经政法大学学报, 2007,(6):129-133, 140.[WANG Z Z, LI P. Analysis on the benefit gaming of border location and the effect of corporate behavior. Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, 2007,(6):129-133, 140.]
[5]费洪平.中国企业组织空间联系模式研究.地理科学, 1996, 16(1):18-25.[FEI H P. Spatial linkages of industrial organizations in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 1996, 16(1):18-25.]
[6]金相郁. 20世纪区位理论的五个发展阶段及其评述.经济地理, 2004, 24(3):294-298.[JIN X Y. Survey and evaluation of location theory in 20 century by five development stage. Economic Geography, 2004, 24(3):294-298.]
[7] KRUGMAN P. First nature, second nature and metropolitan location. Journal of Regional Science, 1993, 133(2):129-144.
[8] NICHOLAS C, ABAY M. What explains the location of industry in Britain, 1871-1931. Journal of Economic Geography, 2005, 5:499-518.
[9] HEAD K, MAYER T. Market potential and the location of Japanese investment in the European Union. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, 86:959-72.
[10] HOLL A. Manufacturing location and impacts of road transport infrastructure:Empirical evidence from Spain. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1999, 29:197-218.
[11] AMITI M, JAVORCIK B S. Trade costs and location of foreign firms in China. Journal of Development Economics,2008, 85:129-49.
[12]叶素云,叶振宇.中国工业企业的区位选择:市场潜力、资源禀赋与税负水平.南开经济研究, 2012,(5):94-110.[YE S Y, YE Z Y. Location choice of industrial firms in China:Market potential, resource endowment and tax burdent level.Nankai Economic Studies, 2012,(5):94-110.]
[13]张晓平,孙磊.北京市制造业空间格局演化及影响因子分析.地理学报, 2012, 67(10):1308-1316.[ZHANG X P,SUN L. Manufacture restructuring and main determinants in Beijing metropolitan area. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012,67(10):1308-1316.]
[14]吕卫国,陈雯.制造业区位选择与南京城市空间重构.地理学报, 2009, 64(2):142-152.[LYU W G, CHEN W. Manufacturing industry enterprises location choice and the urban spatial restructuring in Nanjing. Acta Geographica Sinica,2009, 64(2):142-152.]
[15]贺灿飞,谢秀珍,潘峰华.中国制造业省区分布及其影响因素.地理研究, 2008, 27(3):623-635.[HE C F, XIE X Z,PAN F H. Location studies of Chinese manufacturing industries. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(3):623-635.]
[16]刘爱民,封志明,阎丽珍,等.基于耕地资源约束的中国大豆生产能力研究.自然资源学报, 2003, 18(4):430-436.[LIU A M, FENG Z M, YAN L Z, et al. Study on soybean throughput based on cultivated land resources restriction in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(4):430-436.]
[17]蒋慕东,王思明.二十世纪中国大豆生产及其发展动因分析.中国农史, 2006,(3):31-40.[JIANG M D, WANG S M.The anslysis of the production and motivation of the development of Chinese soybean in the 20thcentury. Agricultural History of China, 2006,(3):31-40.]
[18]高颖,田维明.基于引力模型的中国大豆贸易影响因素分析.农业技术经济, 2008,(1):27-33.[GAO Y, TIAN W M.Analysis of influential factors of soybean trade in China based on gravity model. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2008,(1):27-33.]
[19]谷强平,周静,杜吉到.基于贸易视角的中国大豆产业安全分析.大豆科学, 2015, 34(2):314-319.[GU Q P, ZHOU J,DU J D. China's soybean industry safety analysis based on the perspective of trade. Soybean Science, 2015, 34(2):314-319.]
[20]杨树果.产业链视角下的中国大豆产业经济研究.北京:中国农业大学, 2014.[YANG S G. Economics of soybean industry in China from industry chain perspective. Beijing:China Agricultural University, 2014.]
[21]赵殷钰,郑志浩.中国大豆和大豆油需求:基于SDAIDS模型的实证分析.中国农村经济, 2015,(11):15-28.[ZHAO Y H, ZHENG Z H. Demand of soybean and soybean oil in China:An empirical analysis based on SDAIDS model. Chinese Rural Economy, 2015,(11):15-28.]
[22]刘爱民.中国大豆产业格局与大豆进口政策.中国农业信息, 2003,(2):9-11.[LIU A M. China soybean industry layout and soybean import policy. China Agricultural Information, 2003,(2):9-11.]
[23]王永刚,王永强,刘志雄.中国植物油工业发展的现状与瓶颈.农产品加工:学刊, 2005,(3):35-37.[WANG Y G.WANG Y Q, LIU Z X. Present situation and problems of vegetable oil processing industry in China. Academic Periodical of Farm Products Processing, 2005,(3):35-37.]
[24]毛学峰.中国大豆进口与大豆产业.北京:中国农业出版社, 2009.[MAO X F. China's Soybean Imports and Soybean Industry. Beijing:China Agricultural Press, 2009.]
[25]钟莉莉,徐超.中国植物油加工业产业集聚现状研究.东方企业文化, 2010,(14):233-234.[ZHONG L L, XU C. A study on the status of industrial agglomeration of vegetable oil processing industry in China. Oriental Enterprise Culture, 2010,(14):233-234.]
[26]陈君子,刘大均,谢双玉.武汉市旅游景区空间结构演化.热带地理, 2013, 33(3):349-355.[CHEN J Z, LIU D J, XIE S Y. Evolution of the spatial structure of the scenic spots in Wuhan. Tropical Geography, 2013, 33(3):349-355.]
[27]王远飞,何洪林.空间数据分析方法.北京:科学出版社, 2007:58-60.[WANG Y F, HE H L. Spatial Data Analysis Method. Beijing:Science Press, 2007:58-60.]
[28]蔡雪娇,吴志峰,程炯.基于核密度估算的路网格局和景观破碎化分析.生态学杂志, 2012,(1):158-164.[CAI X J,WU Z F, CHENG J. Analysis of network pattern and landscape fragmentation based on kernel density estimation. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2012,(1):158-164.]
[29] CARLTON D W. Why new firms locate where they do:An econometric model. In:WHEATON W. Interregional Movements and Regional Growth. Washington D C:The Urban Institute, 1979:13-50.
[30] CHENG S, STOUGH R. Location decisions of Japanese new manufacturing plants in China:A discrete-choice analysis.Annals of Regional Science, 2006, 40:369-387.
[31]余珮,孙永平.集聚效应对跨国公司在华区位选择的影响.经济研究, 2011, 46(1):71-82.[YU P, SUN Y P. The impacts of agglomeration on MNE's location choice in China. Economic Research Journal, 2011, 46(1):71-82.]
[32]赵俊竹,孙铁山,李国平.中国汽车制造业集聚与企业区位选择.地理学报, 2014, 69(6):850-862.[ZHAO J Z, SUN T S, LI G P. Agglomeration and firm location choice of China's automobile manufacturing industry. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(6):850-862.]
[33]杨在宾,刘丽,杜明宏.我国饲料业的发展及饲料资源供求浅析.饲料工业, 2008, 29(19):45-49.[YANG Z B, LIU L,DU M H. Analysis on the development of feed industry in China and the supply and demand of feed resources. Feed industry, 2008, 29(19):45-49.]
[34]韩昕儒,陈永福,钱小平.中国目前饲料粮需求量究竟有多少.农业技术经济, 2014,(8):60-68.[HAN X R, CHEN Y F, QIAN X P. What is the current demand for feed grain in China. Agricultural Technology Economy, 2014,(8):60-68.]
[35]黄娉婷,张晓平.京津冀都市圈汽车产业空间格局演化研究.地理研究, 2014, 33(1):83-95.[HUANG P T, ZHANG X P. Spatial evolution of automobile industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region. Geographical Research,2014, 33(1):83-95.]
[36] HONG J J. Firm heterogeneity and location choices:Evidence from foreign manufacturing. Urban Studies, 2009, 46(10):2143-2157.
[37]贺灿飞,魏后凯.信息成本、集聚经济与中国外商投资区位.中国工业经济, 2001,(9):38-45.[HE C F, WEI H K. Information cost, agglomeration economy and location of foreign investment in China. China Industrial Economics, 2001,(9):38-45.]
[38]唐晓云.中国旅游发展政策的历史演进(1949-2013):一个量化研究的视角.旅游学刊, 2014, 29(8):15-27.[TANG X Y. The evolution of Chinese tourism development policies(1949-2013):A quantitative perspective. Tourism Tribune,2014, 29(8):15-27.]