中国旅游城市生态安全系统作用机理研究——基于PLS与SD的组合
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摘要
针对目前旅游生态安全研究重视系统要素间的比较与综合,而忽视系统内部作用路径与动态机理分析的现状,以DPSIR的概念模型作为旅游生态安全系统的基础框架,将该系统作用机理分解为7条作用路径,并以中国30个主要旅游城市为研究对象,采用偏最小二乘法模型(PLS)描述系统静态作用机理,结合系统动力学模型(SD)对系统动态作用机理进行动态仿真。研究结果表明:①采用PLS模型对DPSIR模型中的7条作用路径进行检验与测度,发现"响应-压力"的负向与"影响-响应"的正向作用不显著,造成系统反馈链条出现断裂,难以形成有效的循环反馈机制。据此,将中国旅游城市生态安全系统的静态作用机理解析为两个部分,"驱动力-压力-状态-影响"的单方向的链式作用路径,反映了旅游城市的生产、生活行为对生态环境系统的依存关系及影响;"响应-驱动力/压力"的发散式作用路径,综合汇总了旅游城市对生态安全系统管理能力。②依据修正的DPSIR模型,构建中国旅游城市生态系统的动力学模型进行仿真模拟,揭示旅游生态安全系统的演变路径与发展趋势,并结合旅游产业发展与生态文明建设的战略规划设定政策情景模拟方案,探究在政策干预下我国旅游生态安全系统的状况,并评测政府管理策略的实施绩效,识别旅游产业的策略诉求。依据系统发展现状仿真模拟结果表明,生态安全系统状态呈现持续恶化的态势,游客数量遇到增长拐点而急剧减少,旅游产业协调度呈现曲线下降的态势;依据情景模拟结果表明,设定的"战略导向"与"协调导向"的两种情景模拟方案,均能够有效地改善旅游生态安全系统的现行状况。而"协调导向"通过更加严格的控制游客数量的增长速率,降低产业发展速度,增强环保与基建投入等措施,能够有效地实现游客数量的持续增长,生态系统状况的良性改善,旅游协调度也呈现出优良稳定的态势。
Aimed to the deficiency that the research on tourist ecological security attaches importance to the comparison and synthesis of system elements,and ignores to analyze the internal system paths and dynamic mechanism,this paper employs the DPSIR conceptual model as the basic framework of tourist ecological security system,and the action mechanism of the system is analyzed into 7 effect paths,and takes 30 major tourist cities in China as the research objects. The static mechanism of the system is described by partial least squares model( PLS),and the dynamic mechanism of the system is simulated by system dynamics model( SD). The results show that: ① The PLS model is employed to test and measure the 7 paths within the system,and it is found that the negative effects of‘Response-Pressure'and the positive effect of ‘Impact-Response'are not significant,resulting in the failure of the feedback mechanism of the ecological security system. Therefore,the static mechanism of the ecological security system of tourist cities is divided into two parts: The one-way chain path is the‘Driver-Pressure-State-Impact',which reflects the dependence and influence of the production and living behavior of tourist urban ecological environment system. The other way chain path is the divergent action path of ‘Response-Driver/Pressure',which is a comprehensive summary of the ability to manage the ecological security system. ② Based on the modified DPSIR model,the dynamic model is constructed and simulated to reveal the evolution path and development trend of tourism ecological security system. Combined with the strategies of tourism industry development and eco-civilization,the scenario model is set up to simulate and explore the performance of tourist urban ecological security system under the policy intervention,which could evaluate the performance of government management strategies and identify the strategic demands of tourism industry. The results show that according to the simulation of the development status of the system,it is found that the state of ecological security system presents a trend of continuous deterioration,the number of tourists meets the inflection point of growth and will decrease sharply,and the coordination degree of tourist industry will present a curve decline. Second,based on the result of the scenario simulation research,it sets out two scenario simulation programs,named ‘strategic orientation'and ‘coordination orientation'. Both kinds of simulation programs could effectively improve the current situation of ecological security system. The scenario of ‘coordination orientation'can effectively realize the continuous increase in the number of tourists,the improvement of ecosystem condition,and the tendency of excellent stability of the tourist coordination degree,by more strictly controlling the number of tourists' growth rate,reducing the speed of industrial development,and enhancing environmental protection and infrastructure investment and other measures.
Aimed to the deficiency that the research on tourist ecological security attaches importance to the comparison and synthesis of system elements,and ignores to analyze the internal system paths and dynamic mechanism,this paper employs the DPSIR conceptual model as the basic framework of tourist ecological security system,and the action mechanism of the system is analyzed into 7 effect paths,and takes 30 major tourist cities in China as the research objects. The static mechanism of the system is described by partial least squares model( PLS),and the dynamic mechanism of the system is simulated by system dynamics model( SD). The results show that: ① The PLS model is employed to test and measure the 7 paths within the system,and it is found that the negative effects of‘Response-Pressure'and the positive effect of ‘Impact-Response'are not significant,resulting in the failure of the feedback mechanism of the ecological security system. Therefore,the static mechanism of the ecological security system of tourist cities is divided into two parts: The one-way chain path is the‘Driver-Pressure-State-Impact',which reflects the dependence and influence of the production and living behavior of tourist urban ecological environment system. The other way chain path is the divergent action path of ‘Response-Driver/Pressure',which is a comprehensive summary of the ability to manage the ecological security system. ② Based on the modified DPSIR model,the dynamic model is constructed and simulated to reveal the evolution path and development trend of tourism ecological security system. Combined with the strategies of tourism industry development and eco-civilization,the scenario model is set up to simulate and explore the performance of tourist urban ecological security system under the policy intervention,which could evaluate the performance of government management strategies and identify the strategic demands of tourism industry. The results show that according to the simulation of the development status of the system,it is found that the state of ecological security system presents a trend of continuous deterioration,the number of tourists meets the inflection point of growth and will decrease sharply,and the coordination degree of tourist industry will present a curve decline. Second,based on the result of the scenario simulation research,it sets out two scenario simulation programs,named ‘strategic orientation'and ‘coordination orientation'. Both kinds of simulation programs could effectively improve the current situation of ecological security system. The scenario of ‘coordination orientation'can effectively realize the continuous increase in the number of tourists,the improvement of ecosystem condition,and the tendency of excellent stability of the tourist coordination degree,by more strictly controlling the number of tourists' growth rate,reducing the speed of industrial development,and enhancing environmental protection and infrastructure investment and other measures.
引文
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[20]梁明珠,王婧雯,刘志宏,等.湿地景区游憩冲击感知与环境态度关系研究——以广州南沙湿地公园为例[J].旅游科学,2015,29(6):34-49.
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[23]徐美,刘春腊.张家界市旅游生态安全评价及障碍因子分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(3):605-614.
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[27]OMANN I,STOCKER A,JAGER J. Climate change as a threat to biodiversity:an application of the DPSIR approach[J]. Ecological economics,2014,69(1):24-31.
[28]CHANG M, HSU H, YEN H. Factors affecting knowledge management success:the fit perspective[J]. Journal of knowledge management,2012,16(6):847-861.
[29]卢洪友,刘啟明,祁毓.中国环境保护税的污染减排效应再研究——基于排污费征收标准变化的视角[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2018,18(5):67-82.
[30]唐弘久,保继刚.我国主要入境客源地游客的时空特征及影响因素[J].经济地理,2018,38(9):222-230,239.
[31]赵传松,任建兰,陈延斌,等.全域旅游背景下中国省域旅游产业与区域发展时空耦合及驱动力[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(3):149-159.
[32]汪宇明,赵中华.基于上海案例的大都市旅游容量及承载力研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,31(5):118-122.
[33]刘少湃.城市旅游景区的游客构成及空间分流[J].城市问题,2012,23(3):54-57,67.
[2]王兆峰,霍菲菲,徐赛.湘鄂渝黔旅游产业与旅游环境耦合协调度变化[J].经济地理,2018,38(8):204-213.
[3]HUNTER C,SHAW J. The ecological footprint as a key indicator of sustainable tourism[J]. Tourism manage,2007,28(1):46-57.
[4]JOHNSTON J,TYRRELL J. A dynamic model of sustainable tourism[J]. Journal of travel research,2005,44(2):124-134.
[5]FONS S,FIERRO M,PATNIO Y. Rural tourism:a sustainable alternative[J]. Apply energy,2011,88(2):551-557.
[6]GHERMANDI A,OBURA D,PALD N,et al. Marine ecosystem services in the Northern Mozambique Channel:a geospatial and socioeconomic analysis for policy support[J]. Ecosystem services,2019,35(2):1-12.
[7]ZHAO Z,LI P. Study on the ecological health evaluation of a geopark based on DPSIR concepetual model-illustrated by the Qian Jiang Xiao Nan Hai National Geopark of China[J]. Applied ecology and environmental research,2018,16(4):3839-3859.
[8]TSOUKALA A,SPILANIS I,BANOS-GONZALEZ I,et al. An exercise in decision support modelling for islands:a case study for a‘typical’Mediterranean island[J]. Island studies journal,2018,13(2):185-202.
[9]WU Y,WANG H,HO Y. Urban ecotourism:defining and assessing dimensions using fuzzy number construction[J]. Tourism management,2010,31(6):739-743.
[10]MILLER G, RATHOUSE K, SCARLES C, et al. Public understanding of sustainable tourism[J]. Annual tourism research,2010,37(3):627-645.
[11]TSAUR H,LIN Y,LIN J. Evaluating ecotourism sustainability from the integrated perspective of resource,community and tourism[J].Tourism management,2006,27(4):640-653.
[12]BLANCAS J, CABALLERO R, GONZALEZ M, et al. Goal programming synthetic indicators:an application for sustainable tourism in Andalusian coastal counties[J]. Ecological economics,2010,69(11):2158-2172.
[13]SEMEOSHENKOVA V, NEWTON A, ROJAS M, et al. A combined DPSIR and SAF approach for the adaptive management of beach erosion in Monte Hermoso and Pehuen Co(Argentina)[J].Ocean&coastal management,2017,143(3):63-73.
[14]李细归,吴清,周勇.中国省域旅游生态安全时空格局与空间效应[J].经济地理,2017,37(3):210-217.
[15]汤傅佳,黄震方,徐冬,等.水库型旅游地生态安全时空分异及其关键影响因子分析——以溧阳市天目湖为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(5):1114-1123.
[16]周秋文,方海川,苏维词.基于GIS和神经网络的川西高原生态旅游适宜度评价[J].资源科学,2010,32(12):2384-2390.
[17]徐秀美,郑言.基于旅游生态足迹的拉萨乡村旅游地生态补偿标准—以次角林村为例[J].经济地理,2017,37(4):218-224.
[18]辛毅,田旸,吴燕红.生态足迹理论在我国民族地区可持续发展研究中的应用[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(S3):144-148.
[19]黄静波,范香花,黄卉洁.生态旅游地游客环境友好行为的形成机制——以莽山国家级自然保护区为例[J].地理研究,2017,36(12):2343-2354.
[20]梁明珠,王婧雯,刘志宏,等.湿地景区游憩冲击感知与环境态度关系研究——以广州南沙湿地公园为例[J].旅游科学,2015,29(6):34-49.
[21]DEJONGE N, PINTO R, TURNER K. Integrating ecological,economic and social aspects to generate useful management information under the EU Directives’‘ecosystem approach’[J].Ocean&coastal management,2012,68(2):169-188.
[22]秦晓楠,卢小丽.沿海城市生态安全作用机理及系统仿真研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(2):60-68.
[23]徐美,刘春腊.张家界市旅游生态安全评价及障碍因子分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(3):605-614.
[24]European Environment Agency. Halting the loss of biodiversity by2010:proposal for a first set of indicators to monitor progress in Europe[R]. 2005.
[25]RAPPORT J,MAFFI L. Eco-cultural health,global health,and sustainability[J]. Ecological research,2011,26(6):1039-1049.
[26]陈诗一,王建民.中国城市雾霾治理评价与政策路径研究:以长三角为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(10):71-80.
[27]OMANN I,STOCKER A,JAGER J. Climate change as a threat to biodiversity:an application of the DPSIR approach[J]. Ecological economics,2014,69(1):24-31.
[28]CHANG M, HSU H, YEN H. Factors affecting knowledge management success:the fit perspective[J]. Journal of knowledge management,2012,16(6):847-861.
[29]卢洪友,刘啟明,祁毓.中国环境保护税的污染减排效应再研究——基于排污费征收标准变化的视角[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2018,18(5):67-82.
[30]唐弘久,保继刚.我国主要入境客源地游客的时空特征及影响因素[J].经济地理,2018,38(9):222-230,239.
[31]赵传松,任建兰,陈延斌,等.全域旅游背景下中国省域旅游产业与区域发展时空耦合及驱动力[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(3):149-159.
[32]汪宇明,赵中华.基于上海案例的大都市旅游容量及承载力研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,31(5):118-122.
[33]刘少湃.城市旅游景区的游客构成及空间分流[J].城市问题,2012,23(3):54-57,67.