全球科技创新对碳生产率的影响与对策研究
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摘要
科技创新对改善投入产出的要素规模、结构与配置,提高生产要素的投入产出边际效率具有重要意义,在区域经济发展模式转型中的重要作用得到广泛认同。研究以全球118个国家为分析样本,运用基尼系数、泰尔指数、空间自相关、面板数据模型等方法探索全球国家科技创新水平、碳生产率时空演变与空间集聚特征,并分析科技创新对碳生产率的影响,得出以下结论:①全球科技创新指数大致呈波动上升趋势,从2009年的32. 15上升至2016年的37. 59,基尼系数由0. 143上升至0. 175,区域差异呈逐渐扩大趋势,Moran’s I指数由0. 228上升至0. 270,科技创新集聚态势较为明显且有所增强。②全球碳生产率呈上升或者波动上升趋势,基尼系数介于0. 278～0. 301之间,区域差异呈缩小趋势,但区域差异依然较大,Moran’s I指数由0. 047上升至0. 077,碳生产率的集聚态势较弱但趋势有所增强。③从整体样本估计、分类型样本估计来看,科技创新对碳生产率具有重要促进作用,主要通过思想理念渗透与普及、技术融合与工艺优化、产业和产品创新等路径促进投入产出结构优化,降低能源消耗总量、提高能源利用效率。人均GDP、信息化指数对碳生产率具有正向推动作用,工业增加值占GDP比重、城市化率与碳生产率呈显著负相关,FDI与碳生产率关系具有不确定性。④从构建区域创新系统、完善绿色科技创新体系、建立绿色科技创新制度等方面提出对策建议,进一步提升科技创新对碳生产率的影响度。研究对提升全球科技创新竞争力、提高碳生产率和减缓气候变化等具有一定参考价值。
Scientific and technological innovation plays an important role in improving the scale,structure and allocation of input and output factors,and improving the marginal efficiency of input and output of production factors. The research took 118 countries as analysis samples and used Gini coefficient,Thiel index,spatial autocorrelation,panel data model and other methods to study the level of scientific and technological innovation,spatial evolution and spatial agglomeration characteristics of carbon productivity of global countries,and the impact of scientific and technological innovation on carbon productivity. The following conclusions were drawn: ①The global scientific and technological innovation index generally showed an upward trend of fluctuation,from 32. 15 in 2009 to 37. 59 in 2016,and Gini coefficient increased from 0. 143 to 0. 175. The regional differences of global scientific and technological innovation levels gradually expanded,with Moran's I index rising from 0. 228 to 0. 270. The trend of scientific and technological innovation agglomeration was obvious and strengthened to some extent. ② The global carbon productivity was rising or fluctuating. The Gini coefficient of carbon productivity was between 0. 278 and 0. 301,and the regional difference of carbon productivity was narrowing,but the regional differences were still large. Moran's I index increased from 0. 047 to 0. 077. The concentration of carbon productivity was weak but increased. ③From the perspective of overall sample estimation and taxonomic sample estimation,scientific and technological innovation played an important role in promoting carbon productivity. It mainly promoted the optimization of input-output structures through ideological penetration and popularization,technological integration and process optimization,and industrial and product innovation. It will increase efficiency in the use of resources and the environment. The per capita GDP and informatization index had a positive effect on carbon productivity. Proportion of the added value of the secondary industry in GDP,urbanization rate,and carbon productivity were significantly negatively related,and the relationship between FDI and carbon productivity was uncertain. ④ The research put forward countermeasures from the aspects of constructing regional innovation system,including perfecting green science and technology innovation system,and establishing green science and technology innovation system,so as to further enhance the influence of scientific and technological innovation on carbon productivity. The research has reference value for enhancing global competitiveness in scientific and technological innovation,increasing carbon productivity and mitigating climate change.
Scientific and technological innovation plays an important role in improving the scale,structure and allocation of input and output factors,and improving the marginal efficiency of input and output of production factors. The research took 118 countries as analysis samples and used Gini coefficient,Thiel index,spatial autocorrelation,panel data model and other methods to study the level of scientific and technological innovation,spatial evolution and spatial agglomeration characteristics of carbon productivity of global countries,and the impact of scientific and technological innovation on carbon productivity. The following conclusions were drawn: ①The global scientific and technological innovation index generally showed an upward trend of fluctuation,from 32. 15 in 2009 to 37. 59 in 2016,and Gini coefficient increased from 0. 143 to 0. 175. The regional differences of global scientific and technological innovation levels gradually expanded,with Moran's I index rising from 0. 228 to 0. 270. The trend of scientific and technological innovation agglomeration was obvious and strengthened to some extent. ② The global carbon productivity was rising or fluctuating. The Gini coefficient of carbon productivity was between 0. 278 and 0. 301,and the regional difference of carbon productivity was narrowing,but the regional differences were still large. Moran's I index increased from 0. 047 to 0. 077. The concentration of carbon productivity was weak but increased. ③From the perspective of overall sample estimation and taxonomic sample estimation,scientific and technological innovation played an important role in promoting carbon productivity. It mainly promoted the optimization of input-output structures through ideological penetration and popularization,technological integration and process optimization,and industrial and product innovation. It will increase efficiency in the use of resources and the environment. The per capita GDP and informatization index had a positive effect on carbon productivity. Proportion of the added value of the secondary industry in GDP,urbanization rate,and carbon productivity were significantly negatively related,and the relationship between FDI and carbon productivity was uncertain. ④ The research put forward countermeasures from the aspects of constructing regional innovation system,including perfecting green science and technology innovation system,and establishing green science and technology innovation system,so as to further enhance the influence of scientific and technological innovation on carbon productivity. The research has reference value for enhancing global competitiveness in scientific and technological innovation,increasing carbon productivity and mitigating climate change.
引文
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[2]毛汉英.人地系统优化调控的理论方法研究[J].地理学报,2018,73(4):608-619.
[3]张翠菊,张宗益.能源禀赋与技术进步对中国碳排放强度的空间效应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(9):37-43.
[4]黄娟.科技创新与绿色发展的关系———兼论中国特色绿色科技创新之路[J].新疆师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017,38(2):33-41.
[5]肖雁飞,廖双红,王湘韵.技术创新对中国区域碳减排影响差异及对策研究[J].环境科学与技术,2017,40(11):191-197.
[6]雷宏,李智.技术进步对二氧化碳排放的影响效应研究———基于省级面板门限模型[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2017,45(3):58-65.
[7]黄鲜华,边娜,石欣.能源禀赋与产业技术进步对碳排放强度的影响效应研究———来自长江经济带的实证[J].科技进步与对策,2018,35(19):59-64.
[8]樊杰,刘汉初.“十三五”时期科技创新驱动对我国区域发展格局变化的影响与适应[J].经济地理,2016,36(1):1-9.
[9]尚勇敏,曾刚.科技创新推动区域经济发展模式转型:作用和机制[J].地理研究,2017,36(12):2279-2290.
[10]鄢哲明,杨志明,杜克锐.低碳技术创新的测算及其对碳强度影响研究[J].财贸经济,2017,38(8):112-128.
[11]SHI A. The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions,1975-1996:evidence from pooled cross-country data[J]. Ecological economics,2003,44(1):29-42.
[12]林善浪,张作雄,刘国平.技术创新、空间集聚与区域碳生产率[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(5):36-45.
[13]BOSETTI V,CARRARO C,GALEOTTI M,et al. Witch a world induced technical change hybrid model[J]. Hybrid modeling,2006,27(2):13-38.
[14]GERLAGH R. Measuring the value of induced technological change[J]. Energy policy,2007,35(11):5287-5297.
[15]涂正革.中国的碳减排路径与战略选择:基于八大行业部门碳排放量的指数分解分析[J].中国社会科学,2014,35(3):78-94.
[16]金培振,张亚斌,彭星.技术进步在二氧化碳减排中的双刃效应———基于中国工业35个行业的经验证据[J].科学学研究,2014,32(5):706-716.
[17]FISHER V K,WING I S. Accounting for quality:issues with modeling the impact of R&D on economic growth and carbon emissions in developing economies[J]. Energy economics,2008,30(6):2771-2784.
[18]王峰,贺兰姿.技术进步能否降低中国出口贸易隐含碳排放?———基于27个制造业行业的实证分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2014,29(12):50-56.
[19]NORDHAUS W D. To slow or not to slow:the economics of the greenhouse effect[J]. Economic journal,1991,407:920-937.
[20]ANGELOPOUOS K,ECONOMIDES G,PHILIPPOUIOS A. What is the best environmental policy? taxes,permits and rules under economic and environmental uncertainty[R]. CESifo,2010.
[21]JAFFE A B,NEWELL R G,STAVINS R N. Environmental policy and technological change[J]. Environmental and resource economics,2002,22(2):41-70.
[22]EHRLICH P R,HOLDREN J P. Impact of population growth[J].Science,1971(171):1212-1217.
[23]郭莉.技术进步对我国西北五省区碳排放量的影响[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(9):256-266.
[24]YORK R,ROSA E A,DIETZ T. Footprints on the Earth:the environmental consequences of modernity[J]. American sociological review,2003,68(2):279-300.
[25]LIDDLE B. Urban density and climate change:a stirpat analysis using city-level data[J]. Journal of transport geography,2013,28(4):22-29.
[26]何小刚,张耀辉.中国工业碳排放影响因素与CKC重组效应———基于STIRPAT模型的分行业动态面板数据实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2012,30(1):26-35.
[27]张鸿武,王珂英,殳蕴钰.中国工业碳减排中的技术效应:1998—2013———基于直接测算法与指数分解法的比较分析[J].宏观经济研究,2016,37(12):38-49.
[28]申苹.中国二氧化碳排放、经济增长、能源消费的联动关系及其影响因素分析[D].大连:东北财经大学,2012:10-15.
[29]GOULDER L H,SCHNEIDER S H. Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2abatement policies[J]. Resource and energy economics,1999,21(3):211-253.
[30]邓细林.云南省能源CGE模型的节能政策研究[D].昆明:云南财经大学,2012:20-25.
[31]姚云飞,梁巧梅,魏一鸣.国际能源价格波动对中国边际减排成本的影响:基于CEEPA模型的分析[J].中国软科学,2012,33(2):156-165.
[32]周银香,吕徐莹.中国碳减排的经济规模、结构及技术效应———基于33个国家GVAR模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易探索,2017,33(8):96-107.
[33]王为东,卢娜,张财经.空间溢出效应视角下低碳技术创新对气候变化的响应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(8):22-30.
[34]李小平,王树柏,郝路露.环境规制、科技创新与中国省际碳生产率变动[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2016,16(1):44-54.
[35]马歆,薛天天,WAQAS ALI.环境规制约束下区域创新对碳压力水平的影响研究[J].管理学报,2019,16(1):85-98.
[36]辛大楞.金融自由化、金融发展与收入不平等———基于新兴市场经济体国家的研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2018:30-32.
[37]来逢波,耿聪,王海萍.交通基础设施投资对区域产业发展作用强度的差异性研究[J].东岳论丛,2018,39(10):54-61.
[38]龚梦琪,刘海云,姜旭.中国低碳试点政策对外商直接投资的影响研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2019,29(6):50-57.
[39]张腾飞,杨俊,盛鹏飞.城镇化对中国碳排放的影响及作用渠道[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(2):47-57.
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