可持续发展新路径:环境规制和技术进步——基于门槛效应的实证检验
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摘要
"环境保护"和"创新驱动"是聚焦高质量发展总目标下推动可持续发展的应有之义。本文基于环境规制、技术进步和可持续发展间的作用机理,采用中国大陆30个省(市、自治区)2004-2016年的省级面板数据建立动态面板模型,定性定量检验三者之间的关系。研究结果表明:就全国层面而言,恰当的环境规制能够激发企业绿色技术创新活动,环境规制、技术进步以及二者的互动都能显著推动区域可持续发展,进而"波特假说"被证实;而就区域分组结果来看,环境规制、技术进步对可持续发展的推动并不是无条件的,在经济发展水平和创新能力总体落后于东中部的西部来说,环境规制通过将环境成本内部化,增加企业的私人经营成本,产生挤出效应,减少了企业的研发投入,不利于企业技术创新活动的开展,环境规制对需要跨越一定的技术创新门槛才能对可持续发展发挥积极的推动作用,从而"波特假说"被证伪。
Environmental protection and innovation-driven are the proper meanings of promoting sustainable development under the overall goal of focusing on high-quality development.This paper uses the provincial panel data of 2004-2016 provinces in 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in mainland China,bases on the interaction mechanism between environmental regulation,technological progress and sustainable development,establishes the dynamic panel model to examine the relationship between the three qualitatively and quantitatively.The results show that:at the national level,appropriate environmental regulation can stimulate enterprises' green technological innovation activities.Environmental regulation,technological progress and their interaction can significantly promote regional sustainable development,and then the "Porter hypothesis"is confirmed.From the results of regional grouping,the promotion of environmental regulation and technological progress on sustainable development is not unconditional.As far as the level of economic development and innovation ability are generally lagging behind the western part of the eastern and central regions,environmental regulation is not conducive to the development of technological innovation activities by internalizing environmental costs,increasing the private operating costs of enterprises,resulting in crowding-out effect,reducing the R&D investment of enterprises.That is to say,environmental regulation has to cross a certain threshold of technological innovation to play apositive role in promoting sustainable development,thus the"Porter Hypothesis"has been falsified.
Environmental protection and innovation-driven are the proper meanings of promoting sustainable development under the overall goal of focusing on high-quality development.This paper uses the provincial panel data of 2004-2016 provinces in 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in mainland China,bases on the interaction mechanism between environmental regulation,technological progress and sustainable development,establishes the dynamic panel model to examine the relationship between the three qualitatively and quantitatively.The results show that:at the national level,appropriate environmental regulation can stimulate enterprises' green technological innovation activities.Environmental regulation,technological progress and their interaction can significantly promote regional sustainable development,and then the "Porter hypothesis"is confirmed.From the results of regional grouping,the promotion of environmental regulation and technological progress on sustainable development is not unconditional.As far as the level of economic development and innovation ability are generally lagging behind the western part of the eastern and central regions,environmental regulation is not conducive to the development of technological innovation activities by internalizing environmental costs,increasing the private operating costs of enterprises,resulting in crowding-out effect,reducing the R&D investment of enterprises.That is to say,environmental regulation has to cross a certain threshold of technological innovation to play apositive role in promoting sustainable development,thus the"Porter Hypothesis"has been falsified.
引文
[1]金碚.关于“高质量发展”的经济学研究[J].中国工业经济,2018(4):5-18.
[2]Grossman G M,Krueger A B.Environmental Impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement[R].Cambridge:NBER Working Paper 3914,National Bureau of Economic Research,1991.
[3]Narayan P K,Narayan S.Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth:Panel Data Evidence from Developing Countries[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(1):661-666.
[4]徐盈盈.我国能源消费与经济增长动态关系研究:基于非参数逐点回归分析[J].软科学,2013(8):1-5.
[5]臧传琴,吕杰.环境库兹涅茨曲线的区域差异---基于1995-2014年中国29个省份的面板数据[J].宏观经济研究,2016(4):62-69.
[6]许慧.低碳经济发展与政府环境规制研究[J].财经问题研究,2014(1):112-117.
[7]原毅军,谢荣辉.环境规制的产业结构调整效应研究---基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验[J].中国工业经济,2014(8):57-69.
[8]傅京燕.我国对外贸易中污染产业转移的实证分析---以制造业为例[J].财贸经济,2008(5):97-102.
[9]Anderson D.Technical progress and pollution abatement:an economic view of selected technologies and practices[J].Environment and Development Economics.2001,6(3):283-311.
[10]G.Norman.Evaluating the Impacts of Human Capital Stocks and Accumulation on Economic Growth:Some New Evidence[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.1996,25(4):9-28.
[11]张自然,张平,刘霞辉.中国城市化模式、演进机制和可持续发展研究[J].经济学动态,2014(2):58-73.
[12]张同斌,李金凯,高铁梅.技术差距变动、研发资源驱动与技术进步效应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(1):131-139.
[13]Porter M E.Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(4):97-118.
[14]Jorgenson D.J,Wilcoxen P.J.Environmental Regulation and U.S Economic Growth[J].The Rand Journal of Economics,1990,21(2):313-340.
[15]孙学敏,王杰.环境规制、引致性研发与企业全要素生产率---对“波特假说”的再检验[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2016(2):10-16.
[16]王国印,王动.波特假说、环境规制与企业技术创新---对中东部地区的比较分析[J].中国软科学,2011(1):100-112.
[17]沈能,刘凤朝.高强度的环境规制真能促进技术创新吗?---基于“波特假说”的再检验[J].中国软科学,2012(4):49-59.
[18]林勇军,陈星宇.环境规制、经济增长与可持续发展[J].湖南社会科学,2015(4):151-155.
[19]刘和旺,郑世林.环境规制对企业全要素生产率的影响机制研究[J].科研管理,2016(5):33-41.
[20]宋马林,王舒鸿.环境规制、技术进步与经济增长[J].经济研究,2013,48(3):122-134.
[21]于伯华,吕昌河.基于DPSIR概念模型的农业可持续发展宏观分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2004(5):70-74.
[22]田泽,黄萌萌.长江经济带终端能源消费碳减排效率与产业结构耦合分析[J].安徽师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2018(1):92-100.
[23]谢婷婷,郭艳芳.环境规制、技术创新与产业结构升级[J].工业技术经济,2016(9):135-145.
[24]Hansen B.E.Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels[J].Journal of Econometrics,1997,93(2):345-368.
(1)劳动力平均受教育年限计算公式:平均受教育年限=小学文化程度比例*6+初中文化程度比例*9+高中文化程度人口比例*12+大专文化程度人口比率*15+本科文化程度人口比例*16+研究生文化程度人口比例*19。
(1)双门槛模型的门槛估计值分别为-1.160和0.091,相应的置信区间分别为[-1.547,0.285],[-2.982,1.476]。
[2]Grossman G M,Krueger A B.Environmental Impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement[R].Cambridge:NBER Working Paper 3914,National Bureau of Economic Research,1991.
[3]Narayan P K,Narayan S.Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth:Panel Data Evidence from Developing Countries[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(1):661-666.
[4]徐盈盈.我国能源消费与经济增长动态关系研究:基于非参数逐点回归分析[J].软科学,2013(8):1-5.
[5]臧传琴,吕杰.环境库兹涅茨曲线的区域差异---基于1995-2014年中国29个省份的面板数据[J].宏观经济研究,2016(4):62-69.
[6]许慧.低碳经济发展与政府环境规制研究[J].财经问题研究,2014(1):112-117.
[7]原毅军,谢荣辉.环境规制的产业结构调整效应研究---基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验[J].中国工业经济,2014(8):57-69.
[8]傅京燕.我国对外贸易中污染产业转移的实证分析---以制造业为例[J].财贸经济,2008(5):97-102.
[9]Anderson D.Technical progress and pollution abatement:an economic view of selected technologies and practices[J].Environment and Development Economics.2001,6(3):283-311.
[10]G.Norman.Evaluating the Impacts of Human Capital Stocks and Accumulation on Economic Growth:Some New Evidence[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.1996,25(4):9-28.
[11]张自然,张平,刘霞辉.中国城市化模式、演进机制和可持续发展研究[J].经济学动态,2014(2):58-73.
[12]张同斌,李金凯,高铁梅.技术差距变动、研发资源驱动与技术进步效应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(1):131-139.
[13]Porter M E.Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(4):97-118.
[14]Jorgenson D.J,Wilcoxen P.J.Environmental Regulation and U.S Economic Growth[J].The Rand Journal of Economics,1990,21(2):313-340.
[15]孙学敏,王杰.环境规制、引致性研发与企业全要素生产率---对“波特假说”的再检验[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2016(2):10-16.
[16]王国印,王动.波特假说、环境规制与企业技术创新---对中东部地区的比较分析[J].中国软科学,2011(1):100-112.
[17]沈能,刘凤朝.高强度的环境规制真能促进技术创新吗?---基于“波特假说”的再检验[J].中国软科学,2012(4):49-59.
[18]林勇军,陈星宇.环境规制、经济增长与可持续发展[J].湖南社会科学,2015(4):151-155.
[19]刘和旺,郑世林.环境规制对企业全要素生产率的影响机制研究[J].科研管理,2016(5):33-41.
[20]宋马林,王舒鸿.环境规制、技术进步与经济增长[J].经济研究,2013,48(3):122-134.
[21]于伯华,吕昌河.基于DPSIR概念模型的农业可持续发展宏观分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2004(5):70-74.
[22]田泽,黄萌萌.长江经济带终端能源消费碳减排效率与产业结构耦合分析[J].安徽师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2018(1):92-100.
[23]谢婷婷,郭艳芳.环境规制、技术创新与产业结构升级[J].工业技术经济,2016(9):135-145.
[24]Hansen B.E.Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels[J].Journal of Econometrics,1997,93(2):345-368.
(1)劳动力平均受教育年限计算公式:平均受教育年限=小学文化程度比例*6+初中文化程度比例*9+高中文化程度人口比例*12+大专文化程度人口比率*15+本科文化程度人口比例*16+研究生文化程度人口比例*19。
(1)双门槛模型的门槛估计值分别为-1.160和0.091,相应的置信区间分别为[-1.547,0.285],[-2.982,1.476]。
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