绿色背景下广东省旅游业发展的经济效应和生态效应研究

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英文篇名：Study on the Economic and Ecological Effects of Tourism Development in Guangdong Province under the Green Background 作者：万媛媛 ; 苏海洋 ; 刘娟 英文作者：WAN Yuanyuan;SU Haiyang;LIU Juan;Xinhua College of Sun-Yat University;Guangdong University of Finance & Economics; 关键词：旅游业 ; 脱钩理论 ; 生态效应 ; 经济效应 ; 误差修正模型 英文关键词：tourism industry;;decoupling theory;;ecological effects;;economic effects;;error correction model 中文刊名：生态经济 英文刊名：Ecological Economy 机构：中山大学新华学院;广东财经大学; 出版日期：2019-03-01 出版单位：生态经济 年：2019 期：03 基金：广东省高校重点平台青年创新项目“城市能源与环境污染的大数据分析”(2016WQNCX189);; 广东省特色重点学科建设《公共管理》(F2017STSZD01) 语种：中文; 页：138-143+197 页数：7 CN：53-1193/F ISSN：1671-4407 分类号：F592.7

摘要

采用1998—2016年的统计数据,首先运用脱钩理论研究了广东省旅游收入与废气排放量的耦合关系;其次运用单位根检验、协整分析、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验以及方差分解,分析了广东省旅游收入与经济效应和生态效应之间的协整关系,从长期均衡关系和短期均衡关系分别求出经济效应和生态效应对广东省旅游收入的弹性系数。实证研究结果表明:(1)广东省旅游产业在"十二五"期间对经济的贡献率提升明显,后期潜力巨大,广东省国内旅游收入与废气排放量在未脱钩和相对脱钩之间交替循环;(2)广东省工业废水排放量和广东省GDP是广东省旅游收入的格兰杰原因。方差分解显示,生态效应和经济效应的冲击对旅游收入的波动贡献率能够达到55%左右。基于上述理论,生态和经济共同影响着广东省旅游业的发展,结合绿色发展背景提出相关建议,提倡绿色旅游。
        Using statistical data in 1998-2016, the coupling relationship of Guangdong's tourism income and emissions has been studied by using decoupling theory firstly. Then using unit root test, cointegration analysis, error correction model,Granger causality test and variance decomposition, the Guangdong Province's tourism income and the cointegration relationship has been identified and analyzed between the economic effect and ecological effect, from the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term equilibrium relationship. The economic effect and ecological effect tourism income elasticity coefficient of empirical research results show that:(1) The tourism industry in Guangdong province during the"Twelfth Tive-year" economic contribution rate increase significantly, and the late potential is tremendous. The domestic tourism income and emission in Guangdong Province alternate between undecoupling and relative decoupling, and a strong decoupling state appeared in 2006 and 2012.(2) Industrial wastewater emissions of Guangdong province, and GDP is the granger reason of Guangdong tourism revenues. Variance decomposition shows that the impact of the ecological effect and economic effect of tourism revenue fluctuations contribution rate can reach 55%. Based on the above theory, ecological and economic effects jointly affect the development of tourism in Guangdong province, the paper put forward relevant suggestions in combination with the background of green development to advocate green tourism.

引文

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