贵州夏季降水特征及其与Wang and Fan指数的关系
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摘要
该文通过对贵州夏季降水距平百分率场EOF的分解、贵州夏季降水距平百分率与WF指数的相关性和合成分析,以及850 hPa纬向风距平场合成分析,得出如下结论:①贵州夏季降水距平百分率场EOF的分解,所得出对应的基本分布型,即东北—西南向为负值中心,整个贵州省均为同一符号,贵州夏季降水降水距平百分率场具有相当高的一致性,第一模态的空间分布的典型性变化与WF指数的变化是对应的。②标准化WF指数的线性趋势每百年以0.79的趋势减小,标准化WF指数5点平滑变化曲线呈现年代际的变化特征,周期9～10 a。③与贵州夏季降水距平百分率的相关中,通过信度(t=0.05)的区域主要集中在贵州省北部、黔东南与黔南交界。且除黔西南的西南角为正相关外,其余省大部地区都是负相关。④850 hPa纬向风距平场在WF指数在强、弱季风年合成中,在WF指数强季风年,关键区Ⅰ、Ⅱ主要盛行西风,在这种环流形势下贵州夏季降水距平百分率场是偏少;当关键区Ⅰ盛行东风,关键区Ⅱ北部是西风,南部是东风,贵州夏季降水偏多。
Based on the analysis of EOF,the correlation between WF index and the percent of the rainfall anomaly in Guizhou, synthetic analysis of the percent of the rainfall anomaly in Guizhou and 850 hPa weft wind was conducted. It is concluded that:① through the EOF of the percent of the rainfall anomaly in Guizhou,basic distribution type is northeast-southwest direction what is the negative center,the entire in Guizhou is the same symbol, and the percent of the rainfall anomaly in Guizhou has a fairly high degree of consistency. the typical change in the spatial distribution of the first mode corresponds to the change of the WF index.②The linear trend of the standardized WF index decreases with a trend of 0.79 per hundred years. The five-point smooth change curve of the standardized WF index exhibits decadal changes with a period of 9 to 10 years. ③In the correlation with the percent of the rainfall anomaly in Guizhou, the areas passing through the reliability(T=0.05) are mainly concentrated at the Northern in Guizhou,common border of Qiannan and Qianxinan. In addition to the positive correlation in the southwest of Qianxinan, it is basically negative correlation. ④In the strong and weak monsoon years of the WF index, in the 850 hPa weft wind field, When westerly wind is prevalent in both key areas, summer precipitation in Guizhou is less; When the key area Ⅰ prevails in the east wind, the North of key area Ⅱis the West wind, and the South is the east wind,summer precipitation in Guizhou is more.
Based on the analysis of EOF,the correlation between WF index and the percent of the rainfall anomaly in Guizhou, synthetic analysis of the percent of the rainfall anomaly in Guizhou and 850 hPa weft wind was conducted. It is concluded that:① through the EOF of the percent of the rainfall anomaly in Guizhou,basic distribution type is northeast-southwest direction what is the negative center,the entire in Guizhou is the same symbol, and the percent of the rainfall anomaly in Guizhou has a fairly high degree of consistency. the typical change in the spatial distribution of the first mode corresponds to the change of the WF index.②The linear trend of the standardized WF index decreases with a trend of 0.79 per hundred years. The five-point smooth change curve of the standardized WF index exhibits decadal changes with a period of 9 to 10 years. ③In the correlation with the percent of the rainfall anomaly in Guizhou, the areas passing through the reliability(T=0.05) are mainly concentrated at the Northern in Guizhou,common border of Qiannan and Qianxinan. In addition to the positive correlation in the southwest of Qianxinan, it is basically negative correlation. ④In the strong and weak monsoon years of the WF index, in the 850 hPa weft wind field, When westerly wind is prevalent in both key areas, summer precipitation in Guizhou is less; When the key area Ⅰ prevails in the east wind, the North of key area Ⅱis the West wind, and the South is the east wind,summer precipitation in Guizhou is more.
引文
[1] 伍红雨.贵州夏季降水异常的环流特征分析[A].中国气象学会.中国气象学会2006年年会“气候变化及其机理和模拟”分会场论文集[C].中国气象学会,2006:11.
[2] 许炳南.北半球两大长波槽的异常变化与贵州夏旱[J].成都气象学院学报,1999(1):29-34.
[3] 王芬,曹杰,唐浩鹏,等.前期北太平洋海温异常对贵州夏季降水的影响[J].高原气象,2014,33(4):925-936.
[4] 王芬,张娇艳,谷晓平,等.西太平洋副热带高压不同特征指数与贵州夏季降水的关系[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(4):348-356.
[5] 许可,严小冬.印度洋海温异常对贵州夏季降水的影响[J].贵州气象,2005(S1):12-14.
[6] 徐亚敏.东亚冬、夏季风的年代际振荡及其对夏季西太平洋副高和贵州降水的影响[J].贵州水力发电,1999(1):46-49.
[7] 张庆云,陶诗言,张顺利.夏季长江流域暴雨洪涝灾害的天气气候条件[J].大气科学,2003(6):1018-1030.
[8] 施能,朱乾根,吴彬贵.近40年东亚夏季风及我国夏季大尺度天气气候异常[J].大气科学,1996(5):575-583.
[9] BIN WANG,ZHIWEI WU.How to Measure the Strength of the East Asian Summer Monsoon.&Bull.Amer.Meteor .Soc.,21,4449-4463.
[10]Bin Wang and Zhen Fan.wang-Fan_Choice of South Asian Summer.Bull.Amer.Meteor .Soc.,80,629-638.
[2] 许炳南.北半球两大长波槽的异常变化与贵州夏旱[J].成都气象学院学报,1999(1):29-34.
[3] 王芬,曹杰,唐浩鹏,等.前期北太平洋海温异常对贵州夏季降水的影响[J].高原气象,2014,33(4):925-936.
[4] 王芬,张娇艳,谷晓平,等.西太平洋副热带高压不同特征指数与贵州夏季降水的关系[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(4):348-356.
[5] 许可,严小冬.印度洋海温异常对贵州夏季降水的影响[J].贵州气象,2005(S1):12-14.
[6] 徐亚敏.东亚冬、夏季风的年代际振荡及其对夏季西太平洋副高和贵州降水的影响[J].贵州水力发电,1999(1):46-49.
[7] 张庆云,陶诗言,张顺利.夏季长江流域暴雨洪涝灾害的天气气候条件[J].大气科学,2003(6):1018-1030.
[8] 施能,朱乾根,吴彬贵.近40年东亚夏季风及我国夏季大尺度天气气候异常[J].大气科学,1996(5):575-583.
[9] BIN WANG,ZHIWEI WU.How to Measure the Strength of the East Asian Summer Monsoon.&Bull.Amer.Meteor .Soc.,21,4449-4463.
[10]Bin Wang and Zhen Fan.wang-Fan_Choice of South Asian Summer.Bull.Amer.Meteor .Soc.,80,629-638.