耕地利用转型对农业碳排放的影响研究
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摘要
乡村振兴战略不断驱动各地区耕地利用转型升级,耕地利用转型的碳排放效应对发展绿色农业至关重要。利用熵值法模型和中国30个省(西藏和港澳台除外)2008—2016年面板数据测度各省耕地利用转型情况,并实证分析耕地利用转型对农业碳排放的影响。研究结果表明:近9年来中国耕地利用转型发展呈逐年增加趋势且地区差异明显。耕地利用转型对农业碳排放的影响效应具有显著地区差异。从全国来看,耕地利用转型能够有效降低农业碳排放且效果显著。从地区来看,中、西部地区耕地利用转型对农业碳排放的负向作用显著,而东部地区不显著。
The strategy of rural revitalization continuously drives the transformation and upgrading of cultivated land use in various regions. The carbon emission effect of the transformation of cultivated land use was very important for the development of green agriculture. Entropy model and panel data of 30 provinces in China(except Tibet) from 2008 to 2016 were used to measure the transformation of cultivated land use in each province, and the impact of the transformation of cultivated land use on agricultural carbon emissions was empirically analyzed. The results showed that the transformation and development of cultivated land use in China had been increasing year by year with obvious regional differences in the past nine years. The impact of cultivated land use transformation on agricultural carbon emissions had significant regional differences. From a national perspective, the transformation of cultivated land could effectively reduce agricultural carbon emissions and the effect was remarkable. Regionally, the transformation of cultivated land use had a significant negative effect on agricultural carbon emissionsin the central and western regions, while in the eastern region, it was not significant.
The strategy of rural revitalization continuously drives the transformation and upgrading of cultivated land use in various regions. The carbon emission effect of the transformation of cultivated land use was very important for the development of green agriculture. Entropy model and panel data of 30 provinces in China(except Tibet) from 2008 to 2016 were used to measure the transformation of cultivated land use in each province, and the impact of the transformation of cultivated land use on agricultural carbon emissions was empirically analyzed. The results showed that the transformation and development of cultivated land use in China had been increasing year by year with obvious regional differences in the past nine years. The impact of cultivated land use transformation on agricultural carbon emissions had significant regional differences. From a national perspective, the transformation of cultivated land could effectively reduce agricultural carbon emissions and the effect was remarkable. Regionally, the transformation of cultivated land use had a significant negative effect on agricultural carbon emissionsin the central and western regions, while in the eastern region, it was not significant.
引文
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[24]陈瑶,尚杰.四大牧区畜禽业温室气体排放估算及影响因素分解[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2014,24(12):89-95.
[2]龙花楼.论土地利用转型与乡村转型发展[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(2):131-138.
[3]苏洋,马惠兰,颜璐.新疆农地利用碳排放时空差异及驱动机理研究[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(6):1162-1169.
[4]洪凯,朱子玉.珠三角农地利用中的碳排放时空特征及影响因素——基于1996—2014年数据[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,18(1):70-76.
[5]张苗,陈银蓉,程道平,等.土地利用结构和强度变化对碳排放影响分析[J].资源开发与市场,2018,34(5):624-628.
[6]李玉玲,李世平,祁静静.陕西省土地利用碳排放影响因素及脱钩效应分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(1):382-390.
[7]刘慧灵,伍世代,韦素琼,等.基于低碳经济导向的土地利用结构优化研究——以福建省福州市为例[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(6):202-208.
[8]杨皓然,吴群.碳排放视角下的江苏省土地利用转型生态效率研究——基于混合方向性距离函数[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(10):1718-1730.
[9]WANG S, FANG C, GUAN X, et al.Urbanisation, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions in China:A panel data analysis of China's provinces[J]. Applied energy, 2014, 136(C):738-749.
[10]WETTESTAD J. Interaction between EU carbon trading and the international climate regime:synergies and learning[J].International environmental agreements politics law and economics, 2009, 9(4):393-408.
[11]王琦,黎孔清,朱利群.南京都市农业农地利用碳排放测算及趋势预测[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(4):288-294.
[12]WEST T O, MARLAND G. A synthesis of carbon sequestration, carbon emissions, and net carbon flux in agriculture:comparing tillage practices in the United States[J].Agriculture ecosystems and environment, 2002, 91(1):217-232.
[13]ANJALI D, RATTAN L. Carbon footprint and sustainability of agricultural production systems in Punjab, India, and Ohio,USA[J]. Journal of crop improvement, 2009, 23(4):332-350.
[14]王刚,张华兵,薛菲,等.成都市县域土地利用碳收支与经济发展关系研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(7):1170-1182.
[15]张志高,袁征,刘雪,等.基于投入视角的农业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩效应分析——以河南省为例[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(5):272-278.
[16]高标,房骄,卢晓玲,等.区域农业碳排放与经济增长演进关系及其减排潜力研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(1):13-18.
[17]吴金凤,王秀红.不同农业经济发展水平下的碳排放对比分析——以盐池县和平度市为例[J].资源科学,2017,39(10):1909-1917.
[18]姚成胜,钱双双,李政通,等.黑龙江省农业碳排放、科技投入与经济增长关系研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(8):8-15.
[19]王太祥,王腾,吴林海.西北干旱区农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长的响应关系[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(4):170-176.
[20]向敬伟,李江风.贫困山区耕地利用转型对农业经济增长质量的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,1:71-81.
[21]戈大专,龙花楼,屠爽爽,等.黄淮海地区土地利用转型与粮食产量耦合关系研究[J].农业资源与环境学报,2017,34(4):319-327.
[22]IPCC. 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[M]. Kanagawa:institute for global environmental strategies, 2006.
[23]陈银娥,陈薇.农业机械化、产业升级与农业碳排放关系研究——基于动态面板数据模型的经验分析[J].农业技术经济,2018(5):122-133.
[24]陈瑶,尚杰.四大牧区畜禽业温室气体排放估算及影响因素分解[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2014,24(12):89-95.
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