1988—2017年河北省干旱时空变化特征分析
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摘要
为研究河北省多年来的干旱发生情况,利用1988—2017年30年间河北省20个地市的逐月降水资料,以降水距平百分率作为干旱等级的评价指标,研究河北省降水的年际、季节变化特征以及年尺度、季尺度、空间尺度上的干旱特征。结果表明:①河北省降水年际变化呈现上升趋势,春季、秋季、冬季的降水均呈增加趋势,夏季降水呈减少趋势;②秋季降水呈显著增加趋势;③1988—2017年间有7 a发生不同程度的干旱,发生干旱的平均频率为23%;④冬季发生干旱的频率最高,发生重大干旱的可能性也最大;⑤20个地市中,青龙地区最易发生干旱。该研究结果可为河北省的干旱监测、干旱评估、干旱预警和抗旱减灾提供理论依据。
In order to study the drought occurrence in Hebei Province over the years, based on the monthly precipitation data of 20 cities in Hebei Province from 1988 to 2017, taking the percentage of precipitation anomaly as the evaluation index of drought grade, the interannual and seasonal variation characteristics of precipitation and the drought characteristics on the annual, seasonal and spatial scales in Hebei Province were studied. The results showed: ① the interannual variation of precipitation in Hebei Province showed an upward trend, with an increasing trend in spring, autumn and winter, and a decreasing trend in summer; ② the precipitation in autumn showed a significant increase trend; ③ there were different degrees of drought in 7 years from 1988 to 2017, and the average frequency of drought occurred was 23%; ④ the frequency of drought occurred in winter and the possibility of major drought was the highest; ⑤ among the 20 cities, the Qinglong area was the most prone to drought. The research results can provide scientific theoretical basis for drought monitoring, assessment, early warning and drought relief in Hebei Province.
In order to study the drought occurrence in Hebei Province over the years, based on the monthly precipitation data of 20 cities in Hebei Province from 1988 to 2017, taking the percentage of precipitation anomaly as the evaluation index of drought grade, the interannual and seasonal variation characteristics of precipitation and the drought characteristics on the annual, seasonal and spatial scales in Hebei Province were studied. The results showed: ① the interannual variation of precipitation in Hebei Province showed an upward trend, with an increasing trend in spring, autumn and winter, and a decreasing trend in summer; ② the precipitation in autumn showed a significant increase trend; ③ there were different degrees of drought in 7 years from 1988 to 2017, and the average frequency of drought occurred was 23%; ④ the frequency of drought occurred in winter and the possibility of major drought was the highest; ⑤ among the 20 cities, the Qinglong area was the most prone to drought. The research results can provide scientific theoretical basis for drought monitoring, assessment, early warning and drought relief in Hebei Province.
引文
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[13] 王晓利,张春艳,侯西勇.1961—2017年环渤海地区气象干旱时空特征及致灾危险性评估[J].生态学报,2019(13):1-13.
[14] 王富强,李玉娟.基于AWTP的河南省干旱演变特征分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(2):22-27.
[15] 李雪纯,赵君,徐进超.基于降水距平百分率的安徽省近50年干旱时空分布特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2018(9):133-136,143.
[16] 王富强,王雷.基于降水距平百分率的河南省干旱特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(12):84-88.
[17] 韩宇平,马海娇,严登华.典型干旱指标在海河流域的适用性评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(1):6-14.
[18] 孟宪群.河北省旱灾情况及成因[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(33):18922-18924.
[2] 周丹.1961—2013年华北地区气象干旱时空变化及其成因分析[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2015.
[3] 金菊良,杨齐祺,周玉良.干旱分析技术的研究进展[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(2):1-15.
[4] 丹东.基于SPI指数的四川省甘孜州干旱演变规律分析[J].水利规划与设计,2018(10):75-77,154.
[5] 冯怡,薛联青,张洛晨.三种气象干旱指数在塔里木河流域应用的对比分析[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(9):23-26,142.
[6] 陈少勇,郭俊瑞,吴超.基于降水量距平百分率的中国西南和华南地区的冬旱特征[J].自然灾害学报,2015(1):23-31.
[7] 卫捷,马柱国.Palmer干旱指数、地表湿润指数与降水距平的比较[J].地理学报,2003,58(增刊1):117-124.
[8] 蒋桂芹.干旱驱动机制与评估方法研究[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2013.
[9] 罗党,张曼曼.灰信息下干旱灾害风险影响因素的灰色关联分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(5):82-87.
[10] 曹永强,路璐,张兰霞,等.基于Z指数的辽宁省气象干旱时空特性分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(8):1518-1525.
[11] 蔡新玲,叶殿秀,李茜,等.基于CI指数的陕西干旱时空变化特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2013,31(5):1-8.
[12] 王东,张勃,安美玲,等.基于SPEI的西南地区近53年干旱时空特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(6):1003-1016.
[13] 王晓利,张春艳,侯西勇.1961—2017年环渤海地区气象干旱时空特征及致灾危险性评估[J].生态学报,2019(13):1-13.
[14] 王富强,李玉娟.基于AWTP的河南省干旱演变特征分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(2):22-27.
[15] 李雪纯,赵君,徐进超.基于降水距平百分率的安徽省近50年干旱时空分布特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2018(9):133-136,143.
[16] 王富强,王雷.基于降水距平百分率的河南省干旱特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(12):84-88.
[17] 韩宇平,马海娇,严登华.典型干旱指标在海河流域的适用性评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(1):6-14.
[18] 孟宪群.河北省旱灾情况及成因[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(33):18922-18924.
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