中国对“一带一路”沿线国家产业转移的区位选择
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摘要
"‘一带一路’倡议"是我国新时代全面对外开放的重要举措,对于加强对外合作共赢具有重大战略意义。研究运用产业转移评估模型、产业转移吸引力评估模型,结合变异系数、基尼系数以及空间自相关分析等方法探讨了"一带一路"沿线国家对中国产业转移承接力与吸引力的时空分异特征以及中国产业转移的区位选择,研究表明:①2012—2016年"一带一路"沿线国家对中国产业转移的承接力呈波动上升趋势,基尼系数由0.198降为0.185,表明沿线各国产业转移承接力差异有所减小但仍存在一定的区域差异,Moran's I的均值为0.367,表明产业承接力空间集聚态势明显;②2012—2016年沿线国家对中国产业转移的吸引力总体呈上升趋势,吸引力有空间正相关关系且大致符合距离衰减定律,基尼系数在0.756附近上下浮动,表明沿线各国产业转移吸引力的差异态势大致不变且区域差异仍然较大,Moran's I的均值为0.126,表明空间集聚态势较弱;③将承接力与吸引力划分为7种组合类型,并基于中国与沿线国家产业结构相似度以及中国对沿线国家投资分布,提出我国对"一带一路"沿线国家产业转移的区位选择建议。
The Belt and Road Initiative is an important promotion of China's regional development strategy, which is of great strategic significance for enhancing regional cooperation and win-win results. Study uses industry transfer assessment models and industry transfer attraction assessment models; Combined with the coefficient of variation, the Gini coefficient and the spatial autocorrelation analysis, study discusses the spatial and temporal characteristics of industrial transfer relay and attraction of countries along the Belt and Road and the location selection of industrial transfer in China. Study shows: 1) From 2012 to 2016, the suppor of countries along the Belt and Road for industrial transfer in China has fluctuated and increased, and the Gini coefficient has dropped from 0.198 to 0.185. It shows that the difference of industrial transfer capacity between countries along the route has decreased, but there are still certain regional differences. The average value of Moran's I is 0.367, indicating that the industrial relay space agglomeration situation is obvious; 2) The overall attraction of countries along the routes to China's industrial transfer in 2012-2016 is on the rise.The attraction has a positive correlation with space and roughly conforms to the law of distance attenuation. The Gini coefficient fluctuates around 0.756. It shows that the difference of industrial transfer attraction between countries along the route is generally unchanged and the regional difference is still large. The average value of Moran's I is 0.126,indicating that the spatial agglomeration is weak; 3) There are 7 types of combination of strength and attraction, based on the similarity in the industrial structure between China and countries along the route and the distribution of China's investment in countries along the route. The study puts forward some suggestions on the location of industrial transfer between China and countries along the Belt and Road.
The Belt and Road Initiative is an important promotion of China's regional development strategy, which is of great strategic significance for enhancing regional cooperation and win-win results. Study uses industry transfer assessment models and industry transfer attraction assessment models; Combined with the coefficient of variation, the Gini coefficient and the spatial autocorrelation analysis, study discusses the spatial and temporal characteristics of industrial transfer relay and attraction of countries along the Belt and Road and the location selection of industrial transfer in China. Study shows: 1) From 2012 to 2016, the suppor of countries along the Belt and Road for industrial transfer in China has fluctuated and increased, and the Gini coefficient has dropped from 0.198 to 0.185. It shows that the difference of industrial transfer capacity between countries along the route has decreased, but there are still certain regional differences. The average value of Moran's I is 0.367, indicating that the industrial relay space agglomeration situation is obvious; 2) The overall attraction of countries along the routes to China's industrial transfer in 2012-2016 is on the rise.The attraction has a positive correlation with space and roughly conforms to the law of distance attenuation. The Gini coefficient fluctuates around 0.756. It shows that the difference of industrial transfer attraction between countries along the route is generally unchanged and the regional difference is still large. The average value of Moran's I is 0.126,indicating that the spatial agglomeration is weak; 3) There are 7 types of combination of strength and attraction, based on the similarity in the industrial structure between China and countries along the route and the distribution of China's investment in countries along the route. The study puts forward some suggestions on the location of industrial transfer between China and countries along the Belt and Road.
引文
[1]陈田.我国区域发展格局的演变历程与优化建议[J].工业经济论坛，2015,2(1):106-111.
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[10]高菠阳，李俊玮，刘红光.中国电子信息产业转移特征及驱动因素——基于区域间投入产出表分析[J].经济地理，2015,35(10):103-109.
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[13]李林子，傅泽强，王艳华，等.京津冀制造业转移与环境影响实证研究[J].环境科学研究，2017,30(8):1-10.
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[16]孙明燕.欠发达地区承接产业转移面临的风险及应对[J].人民论坛，2015,24(17):216-218.
[17]武瑶，王春梅，肖伟华，等.哈大齐工业走廊承接产业转移水环境风险评价[J].安全与环境学报，2015,15(6):352-357.
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[19]丁晓雯.西北地区产业承接中的行业选择研究[D].兰州：兰州大学，2014.
[20]孙威，李文会，林晓娜，等.长江经济带分地市承接产业转移能力研究[J].地理科学进展，2015,34(11):1 470-1 478.
[21]吴建民，丁疆辉，王新宇.县域产业承接力的综合测评与空间格局分析——基于京津冀产业转移的视角[J].地理与地理信息科学，2017,33(2):75-80.
[22]李世杰，邱士可，杨文新，等.河南省产业转移承接能力空间差异分析[J].河南科学，2014,32(11):2 350-2 354.
[23]张理娟，张晓青，姜涵，等.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的产业转移研究[J].世界经济研究，2016,35(6):82-92,135.
[24]左小德，张力方，梁云.产业转移的引力模型及实证研究[J].产经评论，2011,28(3):47-54.
[25]陆燕. 2013—2014年世界经济形势：回顾与展望[J].国际经济合作，2014,30(1):33-38.
[2] Raymond Vernon. International investment and international trade in the product cycle[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1966,80(2):190-207.
[3] Dunning J H. The Eclectic Paradigm of International Production:A Restatement and Some Possible Extensio[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,1988,19(1):1-31.
[4] Kaname Akamatsu. A historical pattern of economic growth in developing countries[J]. The Developing Economies,1962,1(1):3-25.
[5] Kyoshi Kojima. Direct Foreign Investment:A Japanese Model of Multinational Business Operations[M]. London:Croom Helm,1978:8-9.
[6]张公嵬.我国产业集聚的变迁与产业转移的可行性研究[J].经济地理，2010,30(10):1 670-1 674,1 687.
[7]苏华，胡田田，黄麟堡.中国各区域产业承接能力的评价[J].统计与决策，2011,27(5):41-43.
[8] Miguel C. Manjón-Antolín,Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod. Locations and relocations:determinants,modeling and interrelations[J]. The Annals of Regional Science,2009(12):1-16.
[9]仇方道，蒋涛，张纯敏，等.江苏省污染密集型产业空间转移及影响因素[J].地理科学，2013,33(7):789-796.
[10]高菠阳，李俊玮，刘红光.中国电子信息产业转移特征及驱动因素——基于区域间投入产出表分析[J].经济地理，2015,35(10):103-109.
[11]刘红光，王云平，季璐.中国区域间产业转移特征、机理与模式研究[J].经济地理，2014,34(1):102-107.
[12]崔建鑫，赵海霞.长江三角洲地区污染密集型产业转移及驱动机理[J].地理研究，2015,34(3):504-512.
[13]李林子，傅泽强，王艳华，等.京津冀制造业转移与环境影响实证研究[J].环境科学研究，2017,30(8):1-10.
[14]滕堂伟，胡森林，侯路瑶.长江经济带产业转移态势与承接的空间格局[J].经济地理，2016,36(5):92-99.
[15]赵宏波，苗长虹，冯渊博，等.河南省产业转移承接力时空格局与优化路径分析[J].经济地理，2017,37(12):112-120.
[16]孙明燕.欠发达地区承接产业转移面临的风险及应对[J].人民论坛，2015,24(17):216-218.
[17]武瑶，王春梅，肖伟华，等.哈大齐工业走廊承接产业转移水环境风险评价[J].安全与环境学报，2015,15(6):352-357.
[18]黄海峰，葛林，王美昌.欠发达地区产业承接的重点行业选择[J].经济问题探索，2014,35(11):60-66.
[19]丁晓雯.西北地区产业承接中的行业选择研究[D].兰州：兰州大学，2014.
[20]孙威，李文会，林晓娜，等.长江经济带分地市承接产业转移能力研究[J].地理科学进展，2015,34(11):1 470-1 478.
[21]吴建民，丁疆辉，王新宇.县域产业承接力的综合测评与空间格局分析——基于京津冀产业转移的视角[J].地理与地理信息科学，2017,33(2):75-80.
[22]李世杰，邱士可，杨文新，等.河南省产业转移承接能力空间差异分析[J].河南科学，2014,32(11):2 350-2 354.
[23]张理娟，张晓青，姜涵，等.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的产业转移研究[J].世界经济研究，2016,35(6):82-92,135.
[24]左小德，张力方，梁云.产业转移的引力模型及实证研究[J].产经评论，2011,28(3):47-54.
[25]陆燕. 2013—2014年世界经济形势：回顾与展望[J].国际经济合作，2014,30(1):33-38.