中国人口城镇化滞后对碳排放的影响
|
摘要
关于城镇化同碳排放之间的关系,多数研究只关注人口城镇化或土地城镇化,但这并不全面,中国目前在城镇化方面突出表现为人口城镇化滞后于土地城镇化。本文使用空间面板杜宾模型,研究了人口城镇化滞后对碳排放的影响,分析其空间溢出效应,研究发现:人口城镇化滞后不仅提高了本地碳排放水平,还通过空间溢出效应提高了周边地区的碳排放水平。人口城镇化滞后度同城镇化率的交叉项为负,当城镇化率大于某个程度时,随着城镇化率的提高,人口城镇化滞后度对人均碳排放的边际负效用将会增大;反之,人口城镇化滞后度对人均碳排放的边际正效应在降低。对于中西部地区来说,人口城镇化滞后度对人均碳排放的边际效应为正,人口城镇化滞后度的上升会增加人均碳排放;对于东部部分地区来说,人口城镇化滞后度对人均碳排放的边际效应为负,人口城镇化滞后度的上升会降低人均碳排放。本文建议,在东部部分城镇化率高的地区配置更多的城镇建设用地,而在中西部地区城镇化率低的地区则适当控制城镇建设用地规模。
As for the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions, most studies only focus on population urbanization or land urbanization, but this is not comprehensive. Currently, China's urbanization is highlighted by the fact that population urbanization lags behind land urbanization. The spatial panel dubin model was used to study the impact of population urbanization lag on carbon emissions, and the spatial spillover effect was analyzed. It was found that : The lagging degree of population urbanization not only increases the local carbon emission level, but also increases the carbon emission level of surrounding areas through spatial spillover effect. The cross term between the lagging degree of population urbanization and the urbanization rate is negative. When the urbanization rate is greater than a certain degree, with the improvement of urbanization rate, the marginal negative utility of population urbanization lagging degree on per capita carbon emissions will increase. Otherwise,the marginal positive effect of population urbanization lag on per capita carbon emissions is decreasing. For the central and western regions, the marginal effect of population urbanization lag on per capita carbon emissions is positive. The increase of population urbanization lag will increase per capita carbon emissions. For some eastern regions, the marginal effect of population urbanization lag on per capita carbon emissions is negative. The increase of population urbanization lag will reduce per capita carbon emissions. It is suggested to allocate more land for urban construction in some areas with high urbanization rate in the east, while appropriately control the scale of land for urban construction in areas with low urbanization rate in the central and western regions.
As for the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions, most studies only focus on population urbanization or land urbanization, but this is not comprehensive. Currently, China's urbanization is highlighted by the fact that population urbanization lags behind land urbanization. The spatial panel dubin model was used to study the impact of population urbanization lag on carbon emissions, and the spatial spillover effect was analyzed. It was found that : The lagging degree of population urbanization not only increases the local carbon emission level, but also increases the carbon emission level of surrounding areas through spatial spillover effect. The cross term between the lagging degree of population urbanization and the urbanization rate is negative. When the urbanization rate is greater than a certain degree, with the improvement of urbanization rate, the marginal negative utility of population urbanization lagging degree on per capita carbon emissions will increase. Otherwise,the marginal positive effect of population urbanization lag on per capita carbon emissions is decreasing. For the central and western regions, the marginal effect of population urbanization lag on per capita carbon emissions is positive. The increase of population urbanization lag will increase per capita carbon emissions. For some eastern regions, the marginal effect of population urbanization lag on per capita carbon emissions is negative. The increase of population urbanization lag will reduce per capita carbon emissions. It is suggested to allocate more land for urban construction in some areas with high urbanization rate in the east, while appropriately control the scale of land for urban construction in areas with low urbanization rate in the central and western regions.
引文
[1]范剑勇, 莫家伟. 城市化模式与经济发展方式转变——兼论城市化的方向选择[J]. 复旦学报(社会科学版), 2013, 55(3):65-73.
[2]方齐云, 曹金梅. 城市化、产业结构与人均碳排放——理论推演与实证检验[J]. 现代财经(天津财经大学学报), 2016,(5):77-88.
[3]顾阿伦, 何崇恺, 吕志强. 基于LMDI方法分析中国产业结构变动对碳排放的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(10):1861-1870.
[4]黄少安, 孙涛. 中国的“逆城市化”现象:“非转农”——基于城乡户籍相对价值变化和推拉理论的分析[J]. 江海学刊, 2012,(3):90-96.
[5]邱强, 方鑫, 左翔. 城市化对碳排放非线性脱钩效应的研究——基于Tapio脱钩模型的估计[J]. 现代经济探讨, 2017,(05):78-84.
[6]孙秀林, 周飞舟. 土地财政与分税制:一个实证解释[J]. 中国社会科学,2013,(4): 40-59.
[7]王子敏,潘丹丹. 城镇化路径、速度偏差与能耗效应——土地城镇化与人口城镇化视角[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2016, 18(5):24-32.
[8]魏后凯. 外商直接投资对中国区域经济增长的影响[J]. 经济研究, 2002,(4):19-26.
[9]吴殿廷,吴昊,姜晔. 碳排放强度及其变化——基于截面数据定量分析的初步推断[J]. 地理研究, 2011, 30(4):579-589.
[10]谢冬水. 中国的人口城镇化为什么滞后于空间城镇化——基于中国式分权的视角[J]. 广东财经大学学报, 2016, 31(6):91-101.
[11]姚亮, 刘晶茹, 王如松. 中国城乡居民消费隐含的碳排放对比分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(4):25-29.
[12]张军, 高远, 傅勇,张弘. 中国为什么拥有了良好的基础设施?[J]. 经济研究, 2007,(3):4-19.
[13]张可云,杨孟禹. 国外空间计量经济学研究回顾、进展与述评[J]. 产经评论,2016,(1):5-21.
[14]周葵, 戴小文. 中国城市化进程与碳排放量关系的实证研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2013, 23(4):41-48.
[15]周少甫, 蔡梦宁. 城市化、碳排放与经济增长关系的实证分析[J]. 统计与决策, 2017,(2):130-132.
[16]Baltagi, B. H. and D. Li. Series Estimation of Partially Linear Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects[J]. 2001, 3(1): 103-116.
[17]Beckmann, M. J. City Hierarchies and the Distribution of City Size[J]. Economic Development & Cultural Change, 1958, 6(3): 243-248.
[18]Blanchard, O. and A. Shleifer. Federalism with and without Political Centralization: China Versus Russia[J]. Imf Staff Papers, 2001, 48(1): 171-179.
[19]Ehrlich, P. R. and J. P. Holdren. Impact of Population Growth[J]. Science, 1971, 171(3977): 1212-1217.
[20]Lee, L. F. and J. Yu. Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2010, 154(2):165-185.
[21]LeSage, J. P. and R. K. Pace. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M]. USA: CRC Press, 2009.
[22]LeSage, J. P. and R. K. Pace. The Biggest Myth in Spatial Econometrics[J]. Econometrics, 2014, 2(4): 217-249.
[23]LeSage, J. P. What Regional Scientists Need to Know About Spatial Econometrics[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2014,44(1):13-32.
[24]Li, H. and L. A. Zhou. Political Turnover and Economic Performance: The Incentive Role of Personnel Control in China[J]. Journal of Public Economics, 2005, 89(9-10): 1743-1762.
[25]Lichtenberg, E. and C. Ding. Local Officials as Land Developers: Urban Spatial Expansion in China[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2009, 66(1): 57-64.
[26]York, R. Structural Influences on Energy Production in South and East Asia, 1971-2002[J]. Sociological Forum, 2007, 22(4): 532-554.
[2]方齐云, 曹金梅. 城市化、产业结构与人均碳排放——理论推演与实证检验[J]. 现代财经(天津财经大学学报), 2016,(5):77-88.
[3]顾阿伦, 何崇恺, 吕志强. 基于LMDI方法分析中国产业结构变动对碳排放的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(10):1861-1870.
[4]黄少安, 孙涛. 中国的“逆城市化”现象:“非转农”——基于城乡户籍相对价值变化和推拉理论的分析[J]. 江海学刊, 2012,(3):90-96.
[5]邱强, 方鑫, 左翔. 城市化对碳排放非线性脱钩效应的研究——基于Tapio脱钩模型的估计[J]. 现代经济探讨, 2017,(05):78-84.
[6]孙秀林, 周飞舟. 土地财政与分税制:一个实证解释[J]. 中国社会科学,2013,(4): 40-59.
[7]王子敏,潘丹丹. 城镇化路径、速度偏差与能耗效应——土地城镇化与人口城镇化视角[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2016, 18(5):24-32.
[8]魏后凯. 外商直接投资对中国区域经济增长的影响[J]. 经济研究, 2002,(4):19-26.
[9]吴殿廷,吴昊,姜晔. 碳排放强度及其变化——基于截面数据定量分析的初步推断[J]. 地理研究, 2011, 30(4):579-589.
[10]谢冬水. 中国的人口城镇化为什么滞后于空间城镇化——基于中国式分权的视角[J]. 广东财经大学学报, 2016, 31(6):91-101.
[11]姚亮, 刘晶茹, 王如松. 中国城乡居民消费隐含的碳排放对比分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(4):25-29.
[12]张军, 高远, 傅勇,张弘. 中国为什么拥有了良好的基础设施?[J]. 经济研究, 2007,(3):4-19.
[13]张可云,杨孟禹. 国外空间计量经济学研究回顾、进展与述评[J]. 产经评论,2016,(1):5-21.
[14]周葵, 戴小文. 中国城市化进程与碳排放量关系的实证研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2013, 23(4):41-48.
[15]周少甫, 蔡梦宁. 城市化、碳排放与经济增长关系的实证分析[J]. 统计与决策, 2017,(2):130-132.
[16]Baltagi, B. H. and D. Li. Series Estimation of Partially Linear Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects[J]. 2001, 3(1): 103-116.
[17]Beckmann, M. J. City Hierarchies and the Distribution of City Size[J]. Economic Development & Cultural Change, 1958, 6(3): 243-248.
[18]Blanchard, O. and A. Shleifer. Federalism with and without Political Centralization: China Versus Russia[J]. Imf Staff Papers, 2001, 48(1): 171-179.
[19]Ehrlich, P. R. and J. P. Holdren. Impact of Population Growth[J]. Science, 1971, 171(3977): 1212-1217.
[20]Lee, L. F. and J. Yu. Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2010, 154(2):165-185.
[21]LeSage, J. P. and R. K. Pace. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M]. USA: CRC Press, 2009.
[22]LeSage, J. P. and R. K. Pace. The Biggest Myth in Spatial Econometrics[J]. Econometrics, 2014, 2(4): 217-249.
[23]LeSage, J. P. What Regional Scientists Need to Know About Spatial Econometrics[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2014,44(1):13-32.
[24]Li, H. and L. A. Zhou. Political Turnover and Economic Performance: The Incentive Role of Personnel Control in China[J]. Journal of Public Economics, 2005, 89(9-10): 1743-1762.
[25]Lichtenberg, E. and C. Ding. Local Officials as Land Developers: Urban Spatial Expansion in China[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2009, 66(1): 57-64.
[26]York, R. Structural Influences on Energy Production in South and East Asia, 1971-2002[J]. Sociological Forum, 2007, 22(4): 532-554.