大别山贫困区旅游地社会—生态系统脆弱性时空演变与影响机理
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摘要
旅游地社会—生态系统脆弱性主要由社会、经济、生态子系统要素和旅游发展所带来的相关变化要素构成,是社会脆弱性、经济脆弱性和生态环境脆弱性的综合体现。以大别山区9县(市)为例,基于SEE-PSR模型构建理论研究框架和综合评价体系,探讨贫困山区旅游地社会—生态系统脆弱性时空演变及影响机理。结果表明:①2009-2016年,区域系统脆弱性综合指数由0.52波动降至0.41,其中经济子系统脆弱性指数呈持续下降趋势,社会子系统与生态子系统呈稳定态势且对区域系统脆弱性综合指数贡献率达到76%,目前区域整体属于较低脆弱并朝着利好方向发展。②空间差异上,2009-2016年脆弱性综合指数低值县域随时间变化呈波动下降且变异系数较小,脆弱性综合指数高值县域于2013年开始下降逐步演变为较低脆弱等级且变异系数较大;县域间脆弱性空间差异呈现连续波动上升趋势,县域间差异有所增大。③阻碍旅游地社会—生态系统脆弱性降低的主要因素由旅游收入增长率、工业增加值占GDP比重、城乡收入差距、旅游总收入占GDP比重及耕地面积比率转变为旅游经济密度、游客密度及城镇化率,区域整体由状态主导型脆弱演化为压力主导型脆弱。
Tourism's socio-ecological vulnerability is mainly composed of social, economic,and ecological subsystems and the related changing elements from tourism development. It is an integrated manifestation of social vulnerability, economic vulnerability and ecological vulnerability. The paper, taking nine counties in the Dabie Mountain Area as case studies,proposes a socio-ecological vulnerability theoretical framework and comprehensive evaluation index combining the Social-Economic-Environment(SEE) model and the Pressure-StateResponse(PSR) model. It explores the spatio-temporal evolution and mechanism that influences vulnerability in impoverished mountainous areas. Conclusions are drawn as follows:(1) During the period 2009-2016, the regional system vulnerability composite index fluctuated,declining from 0.52 to 0.41. The index for the economic subsystem continued to decline, and the index for the social and ecological subsystem kept stable. The contribution to a composite index for a regional system reached 76%, and the regional system had a relatively low degree of vulnerability and tended toward a positive direction.(2) The value of low vulnerability counties fluctuated and declined, and the coefficient of variation is lower, while the value of high vulnerability counties in 2013 began to decrease gradually and evolved into a lower degree of vulnerability; the coefficient of variation is larger. For the entire region, the spatial differences of vulnerability in the county experienced a wave-shaped dynamic change. Finally,the differences reached the minimum in 2013, which led to an aggravation of regional differences.(3) The main factors affecting tourism socio-ecological vulnerability have already changed from the growth of tourism income, the proportion of industrial added value in GDP,the urban-rural income gap, the proportion of tourism income to GDP, and the ratio of agricultural acreage to the density of the tourism economy and tourists, and the population urbanization rate. Entire regional vulnerability has already evolved from state-dominated to pressure-dominated.
Tourism's socio-ecological vulnerability is mainly composed of social, economic,and ecological subsystems and the related changing elements from tourism development. It is an integrated manifestation of social vulnerability, economic vulnerability and ecological vulnerability. The paper, taking nine counties in the Dabie Mountain Area as case studies,proposes a socio-ecological vulnerability theoretical framework and comprehensive evaluation index combining the Social-Economic-Environment(SEE) model and the Pressure-StateResponse(PSR) model. It explores the spatio-temporal evolution and mechanism that influences vulnerability in impoverished mountainous areas. Conclusions are drawn as follows:(1) During the period 2009-2016, the regional system vulnerability composite index fluctuated,declining from 0.52 to 0.41. The index for the economic subsystem continued to decline, and the index for the social and ecological subsystem kept stable. The contribution to a composite index for a regional system reached 76%, and the regional system had a relatively low degree of vulnerability and tended toward a positive direction.(2) The value of low vulnerability counties fluctuated and declined, and the coefficient of variation is lower, while the value of high vulnerability counties in 2013 began to decrease gradually and evolved into a lower degree of vulnerability; the coefficient of variation is larger. For the entire region, the spatial differences of vulnerability in the county experienced a wave-shaped dynamic change. Finally,the differences reached the minimum in 2013, which led to an aggravation of regional differences.(3) The main factors affecting tourism socio-ecological vulnerability have already changed from the growth of tourism income, the proportion of industrial added value in GDP,the urban-rural income gap, the proportion of tourism income to GDP, and the ratio of agricultural acreage to the density of the tourism economy and tourists, and the population urbanization rate. Entire regional vulnerability has already evolved from state-dominated to pressure-dominated.
引文
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[4]Aryal S,Cockfield G,Maraseni T N.Globalisation and traditional social-ecological system:Understanding impacts of tourism and labour migration to the transhumance systems in the Himalayas.Environmental Development,2018,25:73-84.
[5]Maikhuri R K,Nautiyal A,Jha N K,et al.Socio-ecological vulnerability:Assessment and coping strategy to environmental disaster in Kedarnath valley,Uttarakhand,Indian Himalayan Region.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2017,25:111-124.
[6]Biggs D.Understanding resilience in a vulnerable industry:The case of reef tourism in Australia.Ecology and Society,2011,16(1):30.
[7]Yu Zhonglei.Research on the adaptability of rural social-ecological system based tourism by farmer investigation:Acase study in Jinsixia Node of the whole Qinling tourist destination[D].Xi'an:Northwest University,2012:31-35.[喻忠磊.基于农户调查的旅游乡村社会-生态系统适应性研究:大秦岭旅游地金丝峡节点的实证分析[D].西安:西北大学,2012:31-35.]
[8]Chen Yaling.Tourism socio-ecological system vulnerability assessment and adaptive management countermeasures research in Shaanxi Qinling Mountain Region[D].Xi'an:Northwest University,2013:2-8.[陈娅玲.陕西秦岭地区旅游社会-生态系统脆弱性评价及适应性管理对策研究[D].西安:西北大学,2013:2-8.]
[9]Li He,Zhang Pingyu.Research progress and prospective applications of vulnerability approach under global change.Progress in Geography,2011,30(7):920-929.[李鹤,张平宇.全球变化背景下脆弱性研究进展与应用展望.地理科学进展,2011,30(7):920-929.]
[10]Adger W N.Vulnerability.Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):268-281.
[11]Turner II B L,Kasperson R E,Matson P A,et al.A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2003,100(14):8074-8079.
[12]Tian Yaping,Xiang Qingcheng,Wang Peng.Regional coupled human-natural systems vulnerability and its evaluation indexes.Geographical Research,2013,32(1):55-63.[田亚平,向清成,王鹏.区域人地耦合系统脆弱性及其评价指标体系.地理研究,2013,32(1):55-63.]
[13]Li He,Zhang Pingyu,Cheng Yeqing.Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability.Progress in Geography,2008,27(2):18-25.[李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法.地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.]
[14]Timmerman P.Vulnerability,resilience and the collapse of society:A review of models and possible climatic applications.Toronto:Institute for Environmental Studies,University of Toronto,1981.
[15]Cutter S L.Living with Risk:The Geography of Technological Hazards.London:Edward Arnold,1993.
[16]Adger W N,Kelly P M.Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,1999,4(3/4):253-266.
[17]Hao Zhenchun,Yu Cuisong,Wang Jiahu,et al.Study on Vulnerability and Resilience of Water Resource System in Changing Environment.Beijing:Science Press,2011:3-14.[郝振纯,于翠松,王加虎,等.变化环境下水资源系统脆弱性和恢复力研究.北京:科学出版社,2011:3-14.]
[18]Dow K.Exploring differences in our common future(s):The meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change.Geoforum,1992,23(3):417-436.
[19]Wang Qun,Lu Lin,Yang Xingzhu.Study on measurement and impact mechanism of socio-ecological system resilience in Qiandao Lake.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(5):779-795.[王群,陆林,杨兴柱.千岛湖社会-生态系统恢复力测度与影响机理.地理学报,2015,70(5):779-795.]
[20]Peng Fei,Han Zenglin,Yang Jun,et al.Time-space differentiation of the vulnerability of marine economy systems in China's coastal area based on BP neural networks.Resources Science,2015,37(12):2441-2450.[彭飞,韩增林,杨俊,等.基于BP神经网络的中国沿海地区海洋经济系统脆弱性时空分异研究.资源科学,2015,37(12):2441-2450.]
[21]Kurniawan F,Adrianto L,Bengen D G,et al.Vulnerability assessment of small islands to tourism:The case of the Marine Tourism Park of the Gili Matra Islands,Indonesia.Global Ecology and Conservation,2016,6:308-326.
[22]Yan Lei,Xu Xuegong.Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental system from the perspective of hazard,sensitivity,and resilience:A case study of Beijing,China.Environmental Earth Sciences,2010,61(6):1179-1186.
[23]Su Fei,Zhang Pingyu.Vulnerability assessment of petroleum city's economic system based on set pair analysis:A case study of Daqing city.Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(4):454-464.[苏飞,张平宇.基于集对分析的大庆市经济系统脆弱性评价.地理学报,2010,65(4):454-464.]
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[25]Liu Xiaoqian,Wang Yanglin,Peng Jian,et al.Assessing vulnerability to drought based on exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity:A case study in middle Inner Mongolia of China.Chinese Geographical Science,2013,23(1):13-25.
[26]Chen Yaling,Yang Xinjun.Tourism social-ecological systems and resilience research.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(11):205-211.[陈娅玲,杨新军.旅游社会-生态系统及其恢复力研究.干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(11):205-211.]
[27]Chen Jia,Yang Xinjun,Wang Ziqiao,et al.Vulnerability and influence mechanisms of rural tourism socio-ecological systems:A household survey in China's Qinling Mountain Area.Tourism Tribune,2015,30(3):64-75.[陈佳,杨新军,王子侨,等.乡村旅游社会-生态系统脆弱性及影响机理:基于秦岭景区农户调查数据的分析.旅游学刊,2015,30(3):64-75.]
[28]Li Jia,Chen Jia,Yang Xinjun.Research on dynamic mechanism of tourism-based social-ecological system using the minimum description model:A case study in Shangwang village of Xi'an city.Geographical Research,2015,34(5):977-990.[李佳,陈佳,杨新军.旅游社会-生态系统的运行机制:以西安市上王村为例.地理研究,2015,34(5):977-990.]
[29]Shen Suyan,Xu Jian,Zhao Jin.Scenario analysis of tourism-based socio-ecological systems from bifurcation theory perspective.Ecological Economy,2015,31(9):147-150.[沈苏彦,徐坚,赵锦.基于分岔理论的旅游地社会-生态系统的情景分析.生态经济,2015,31(9):147-150.]
[30]Yin Peng,Liu Shuguang,Duan Peili.Analysis on the vulnerability and obstacle indicators in island-type tourism destination:Take Zhoushan City for example.Economic Geography,2017,37(10):234-240.[尹鹏,刘曙光,段佩利.海岛型旅游目的地脆弱性及其障碍因子分析:以舟山市为例.经济地理,2017,37(10):234-240.]
[31]Zhou Bin,Zhong Linsheng,Chen Tian,et al.Spatio-temporal pattern and obstacle factors of ecological security of tourism destination:A case of Zhejiang Province.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(5):599-607.[周彬,钟林生,陈田,等.浙江省旅游生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子.地理科学,2015,35(5):599-607.]
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