1961—2016年陕西秋淋气候变化特征及其与大气环流和海温的关系
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摘要
为增强华西秋雨监测评估的客观量化,改善陕西秋淋强度的预测方法,本文利用1961—2016年陕西中南部地区国家级地面气象观测站逐日降水量、NCEP再分析资料、NOAA海温资料以及国家气候中心的海温指数,通过定义秋淋强度指数,分析了陕西秋淋变化特征及其与大气环流和海温的关系。结果表明:近56 a陕西秋淋开始日期平均是9月10日,年际波动较大,整体上无明显变化趋势,但年代际变化特征明显;结束日期平均是10月7日,变化趋势整体趋于偏早。秋淋强度呈波动减弱趋势,且年代际阶段性变化特征明显。陕西秋淋偏强年,500 hPa欧亚中高纬上空呈现"+、-、+"的异常环流特征,且西太平洋副热带高压和印缅槽偏强。陕西秋淋的强弱与ENSO事件有密切联系,前期春、夏季赤道中东太平洋冷(暖)海温发展有利于陕西秋淋偏强(弱),且Niňo3.4区海温异常是陕西秋淋强弱的年际预测信号,对陕西秋淋强度预测有较好的指示意义。
In order to strengthen the objective quantification of autumn rain monitoring and evaluation in West China and improve forecast method of autumn rain in Shaanxi, the climatic characteristics of autumn rain in Shaanxi and their relationship with atmospheric circulation and SST during 1961-2016 were analyzed by using correlation analysis and regression analysis based on the daily precipitation at 77 weather stations of Shaanxi, NCEP reanalysis data, NOAA sea surface temperature(SST), moving average SST index from the Climate Prediction Center in USA and SST index from the National Climate Center in China. The results show that the average onset date of autumn rain in Shaanxi was on September 10, the change trend of the onset date wasn't obvious in Shaanxi from 1961 to 2016 as a whole, but there were obvious interdecadal variation characteristics. The average end date of autumn rain was on October 7, and it had an earlier tendency in the past 56 years. The intensity of autumn rain decreased in Shaanxi during 1961-2016, but the trend wasn't significant, and the interdecadal variation was obvious. In the year of strong autumn rain in Shaanxi, the anomalous circulation on 500 hPa with ‘+,-, +' appeared over Eurasian mid-high latitude, and the western Pacific subtropical high and the Indian-Burma trough were stronger. The intensity of autumn rain in Shaanxi was closely related with ENSO events. The development of cooling(warming) SST in equatorial central-eastern Pacific in spring and summer was beneficial to strong(weak) autumn rain in Shaanxi, and the previous SST anomaly in Niňo3.4 area of tropical Pacific was interannual prediction signal to the intensity of autumn rain in Shaanxi, which had better indication to autumn rain intensity in Shaanxi.
In order to strengthen the objective quantification of autumn rain monitoring and evaluation in West China and improve forecast method of autumn rain in Shaanxi, the climatic characteristics of autumn rain in Shaanxi and their relationship with atmospheric circulation and SST during 1961-2016 were analyzed by using correlation analysis and regression analysis based on the daily precipitation at 77 weather stations of Shaanxi, NCEP reanalysis data, NOAA sea surface temperature(SST), moving average SST index from the Climate Prediction Center in USA and SST index from the National Climate Center in China. The results show that the average onset date of autumn rain in Shaanxi was on September 10, the change trend of the onset date wasn't obvious in Shaanxi from 1961 to 2016 as a whole, but there were obvious interdecadal variation characteristics. The average end date of autumn rain was on October 7, and it had an earlier tendency in the past 56 years. The intensity of autumn rain decreased in Shaanxi during 1961-2016, but the trend wasn't significant, and the interdecadal variation was obvious. In the year of strong autumn rain in Shaanxi, the anomalous circulation on 500 hPa with ‘+,-, +' appeared over Eurasian mid-high latitude, and the western Pacific subtropical high and the Indian-Burma trough were stronger. The intensity of autumn rain in Shaanxi was closely related with ENSO events. The development of cooling(warming) SST in equatorial central-eastern Pacific in spring and summer was beneficial to strong(weak) autumn rain in Shaanxi, and the previous SST anomaly in Niňo3.4 area of tropical Pacific was interannual prediction signal to the intensity of autumn rain in Shaanxi, which had better indication to autumn rain intensity in Shaanxi.
引文
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[15] 王素萍,王闪闪,冯建英.2017年秋季全国干旱状况及其成因[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):1084-1089.
[16] 马金龙,庞雪琪,杨建玲.中国西北东部汛期降水主模态的年代际差异及其大气环流特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):940-948.
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[2] 蔡新玲,康岚,孙娴,等.2011年渭河和汉江上游秋汛期环流特征及暴雨致洪成因[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(2):120-125.
[3] 高由禧,郭其蕴.我国的秋雨现象[J].气象学报,1958,29(4):264-273.
[4] 白虎志,董文杰.华西秋雨的气候特征及成因分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):884-889.
[5] 罗霄,李栋梁,王慧.华西秋雨演变的新特征及其对大气环流的响应[J].高原气象,2013,32(4):1019-1031.
[6] 蒋竹将,马振峰,刘佳,等.一种改进的华西秋雨指数及其气候特征[J].大气科学,2014,38(1):32-44.
[7] 柳艳菊,孙冷,孙丞虎,等.2011年秋季华西秋雨异常及成因分析[J].气象,2012,38(4):456-463.
[8] 鲍媛媛,阿布力米提,李峰,等.2001年华西秋雨时空分布特点及其成因分析[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(2):215-222.
[9] 方建刚,白爱娟,陶建玲,等.2003年陕西秋季连阴雨降水特点及环流条件分析[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(4):509-517.
[10] 陈艳,郭世昌,刘瑜,等.云南雨季开始期时空变化特征及其与ENSO的关系[J].干旱气象,2017,35(4):545-551.
[11] 刘佳,马振峰,杨淑群,等.印度洋偶极子和华西秋雨的关系[J].高原气象,2015,34(4):950-962.
[12] 韩晋平,张人禾,苏京志.中国北方秋雨与热带中太平洋海表冷却的关系[J].大气科学,2013,37(5):1059-1071.
[13] 王春学,马振峰,王佳津,等.华西秋雨准4年周期特征及其与赤道太平洋海表温度的关系[J].大气科学,2015,39(3):643-652.
[14] 李莹,李维京,艾婉秀,等.2011年华西秋雨特征及其成因分析[J].气象科技进展,2012,2(3):27-33.
[15] 王素萍,王闪闪,冯建英.2017年秋季全国干旱状况及其成因[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):1084-1089.
[16] 马金龙,庞雪琪,杨建玲.中国西北东部汛期降水主模态的年代际差异及其大气环流特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):940-948.
[17] 支蓉,陈丽娟,竺夏英.2017年秋季我国北方地区降水异常偏多成因分析[J].气象,2018,44(4):572-581.
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