河北省县域农民收入的空间关联分析
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摘要
农民收入的差异问题是导致区域经济增长不平衡的主导因素,考察县域农民收入的演变特征对增加农民收入、缩小贫富差距具有重要意义.因此,本文采用变异函数、空间自相关、热点分析等多种方法对河北省2000—2015年间县域农民收入区域差异进行了测度,同时分析了形成该格局的原因.研究表明:1)河北省农民收入区域差异性不断降低,空间上县域农民收入呈"高高集聚,低低集聚"格局,形成了以"永清县"为核心的热点区和以"唐山-秦皇岛市"为核心的增长极,以及以"涞源-蔚县-阳原-宣化-崇礼-张北"和"清河-故城-景县-吴桥"等县为中心的农民低收入带. 2)农民收入增长率北高南低,北京周边形成"涞水-怀来-赤城-兴隆"等县的农民较高收入带,以及"阜平-行唐-藁城-辛集-故城"等的农民收入低增长率带. 3)地理差异是导致河北省南北部差异的根本因素,政策的倾斜是东部地区热点区增大的主要影响因素,但随着经济水平、城镇化工业化的提高以及农村金融的普及,县域农民收入差异性在不断降低.
The difference of farmers' income is the dominant factor leading to the imbalance of regional economic growth. It is of great significance to increase farmers' income and reduce the gap between the rich and the poor by exploring the evolution characteristics of counties farmers' income. Therefore,in this paper,the regional differences of farmers' income between 2000 and 2015 in Hebei Province are measured by the method of variogram,spatial autocorrelation,hotspot analysis. At the same time,we analyzed the reasons for this pattern. The results are as follows: 1) The regional disparity of farmers' income in Hebei Province is decreasing,and the spatial pattern of farmers' income is " high concentration,low concentration",which forms a hotspot with " Yongqing" and a growth pole with " Tangshan-Qinhuangdao",as well as the low-income belts in " Laiyuan-Yu County-Yangyuan-XuanhuaChongli-Zhangbei" and " Qinghe-Gucheng-Jing County-Wuqiao". 2) The growth rate of farmers' income is high in the north and low in the south,which forms the high-income belt of farmers' income in " Laishui-Huailai-Chicheng-Xinglong" and the low-growth belt in " Fuping-Xingtang-Gaocheng-Xinji-Gucheng". 3) Geographical difference is the fundamental factor leading to the imbalance between the north and the south of Hebei province. The tilt of policy is the main factor affecting the growth of hot spots in eastern Hebei. However,with the improvement of economic level,urbanization and industrialization,and rural financial,the difference of farmers' income is reducing.
The difference of farmers' income is the dominant factor leading to the imbalance of regional economic growth. It is of great significance to increase farmers' income and reduce the gap between the rich and the poor by exploring the evolution characteristics of counties farmers' income. Therefore,in this paper,the regional differences of farmers' income between 2000 and 2015 in Hebei Province are measured by the method of variogram,spatial autocorrelation,hotspot analysis. At the same time,we analyzed the reasons for this pattern. The results are as follows: 1) The regional disparity of farmers' income in Hebei Province is decreasing,and the spatial pattern of farmers' income is " high concentration,low concentration",which forms a hotspot with " Yongqing" and a growth pole with " Tangshan-Qinhuangdao",as well as the low-income belts in " Laiyuan-Yu County-Yangyuan-XuanhuaChongli-Zhangbei" and " Qinghe-Gucheng-Jing County-Wuqiao". 2) The growth rate of farmers' income is high in the north and low in the south,which forms the high-income belt of farmers' income in " Laishui-Huailai-Chicheng-Xinglong" and the low-growth belt in " Fuping-Xingtang-Gaocheng-Xinji-Gucheng". 3) Geographical difference is the fundamental factor leading to the imbalance between the north and the south of Hebei province. The tilt of policy is the main factor affecting the growth of hot spots in eastern Hebei. However,with the improvement of economic level,urbanization and industrialization,and rural financial,the difference of farmers' income is reducing.
引文
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[2] VEECK G,PANNELL C W. Rural economic restructuring and farm household income in Jiangsu,People's Republic of China[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2015,79(2):275-292.
[3]孟德友,陆玉麒.基于县域单元的江苏省农民收入区域格局时空演变[J].经济地理,2012,32(11):105-112.
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[7]张车伟,王德文.农民收入问题性质的根本转变:分地区对农民收入结构和增长变化的考察[J].中国农村观察,2004(1):2-13.
[8]丁建军.湖南武陵山片区农民收入增长及演变特征的县际差异[J].经济地理,2014,34(10):137-143.
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[10]郭燕枝,刘旭.基于格兰杰因果检验和典型相关的农民收入影响因素研究[J].农业技术经济,2011(10):92-97.
[11]刘玉春,修长柏.农村金融发展、农业科技进步与农民收入增长[J].农业技术经济,2013(9):92-100.
[12]朱德莉.我国农村金融发展对农民收入增长的影响研究:基于协整检验和VEC模型的实证分析[J].农村经济,2014,(11):92-97.
[13]徐增海.我国农民工资性收入波动及其环境因素的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2011(6):186-192.
[14]丁悦,蔡建明,任周鹏,等.基于地理探测器的国家级经济技术开发区经济增长率空间分异及影响因素[J].地理科学展,2014,33(5):657-666.
[15]王法辉.基于GIS的数量方法与应用[M].北京:商务印书馆,2009:156-158.
[16] GALLO J L,ERTUR C. Exploratory spatial data analysis of the distribution of regional per capita GDP in Europe,1980-1995[J]. Papers in Regional Science,2003,82(2):10-12.
[17]李晓越,李同昇,龙冬平,等.西北地区农民收入差异的时空演变及影响因素:以陕甘宁县域为例[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):620-629.
[18]靳诚,陆玉麒.基于县域单元的江苏省经济空间格局演化[J].地理学报,2009,64(6):713-724.
[19] GETIS A,ORD J K. The analysis of spatial association by the use of distance statistics[J]. Geographical Analysis,1992,24(3):189-206.
[20]王静,张小雷,杜宏茹.新疆县域经济空间格局演化特征[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(4):470-478.
[21]海春兴,马礼,王学萌,等.农牧交错带典型地段土地沙化主要因素分析:以河北坝上张北县为例[J].地理研究,2002(5):543-550.
[22]樊新生,李小建.欠发达地区农户收入的地理影响分析[J].中国农村经济,2008(3):16-23.
[23]刘玉,刘彦随,郭丽英.环渤海地区农村居民纯收入空间分异研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(6):992-997.
[24]孙玉奎,周诺亚,李丕东.农村金融发展对农村居民收入的影响研究[J].统计研究,2014,31(11):90-95.
[2] VEECK G,PANNELL C W. Rural economic restructuring and farm household income in Jiangsu,People's Republic of China[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2015,79(2):275-292.
[3]孟德友,陆玉麒.基于县域单元的江苏省农民收入区域格局时空演变[J].经济地理,2012,32(11):105-112.
[4] KHANA R,RISKIN C. Income inequality in China:composition,distribution and growth of household income 1988—1995[J]. China Economic Review,1998,4(1):19-35.
[5] DE JANVRY A,SADOULET E,ZHU N. The role of non-farm incomes in reducing rural poverty and inequality in China[J]. Cudare Working Paper,2005(8),1-29.
[6]姜长云.中国农民收入增长趋势的变化[J].中国农村经济,2008(9):4-12.
[7]张车伟,王德文.农民收入问题性质的根本转变:分地区对农民收入结构和增长变化的考察[J].中国农村观察,2004(1):2-13.
[8]丁建军.湖南武陵山片区农民收入增长及演变特征的县际差异[J].经济地理,2014,34(10):137-143.
[9]万年庆,李红忠,史本林.基于偏离一份额法的我国农民收入结构演进的省际比较[J].地理研究,2012,31(4):672-686.
[10]郭燕枝,刘旭.基于格兰杰因果检验和典型相关的农民收入影响因素研究[J].农业技术经济,2011(10):92-97.
[11]刘玉春,修长柏.农村金融发展、农业科技进步与农民收入增长[J].农业技术经济,2013(9):92-100.
[12]朱德莉.我国农村金融发展对农民收入增长的影响研究:基于协整检验和VEC模型的实证分析[J].农村经济,2014,(11):92-97.
[13]徐增海.我国农民工资性收入波动及其环境因素的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2011(6):186-192.
[14]丁悦,蔡建明,任周鹏,等.基于地理探测器的国家级经济技术开发区经济增长率空间分异及影响因素[J].地理科学展,2014,33(5):657-666.
[15]王法辉.基于GIS的数量方法与应用[M].北京:商务印书馆,2009:156-158.
[16] GALLO J L,ERTUR C. Exploratory spatial data analysis of the distribution of regional per capita GDP in Europe,1980-1995[J]. Papers in Regional Science,2003,82(2):10-12.
[17]李晓越,李同昇,龙冬平,等.西北地区农民收入差异的时空演变及影响因素:以陕甘宁县域为例[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):620-629.
[18]靳诚,陆玉麒.基于县域单元的江苏省经济空间格局演化[J].地理学报,2009,64(6):713-724.
[19] GETIS A,ORD J K. The analysis of spatial association by the use of distance statistics[J]. Geographical Analysis,1992,24(3):189-206.
[20]王静,张小雷,杜宏茹.新疆县域经济空间格局演化特征[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(4):470-478.
[21]海春兴,马礼,王学萌,等.农牧交错带典型地段土地沙化主要因素分析:以河北坝上张北县为例[J].地理研究,2002(5):543-550.
[22]樊新生,李小建.欠发达地区农户收入的地理影响分析[J].中国农村经济,2008(3):16-23.
[23]刘玉,刘彦随,郭丽英.环渤海地区农村居民纯收入空间分异研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(6):992-997.
[24]孙玉奎,周诺亚,李丕东.农村金融发展对农村居民收入的影响研究[J].统计研究,2014,31(11):90-95.
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