20年来广东省土地利用碳排放强度与效率空间分异研究
|
摘要
广东省是中国国家级低碳试点省份之一,碳减排是广东省推动社会又好又快发展的迫切需要,也是积极承担经济大省控制温室气体排放责任的战略行动。区域碳排放与土地利用变化密切相关,对土地利用碳排放机理进行深入研究,有利于明确今后省级低碳试点建设工作的方向和重点。为此,以广东省为研究区,采用土地利用地类排放系数法和K-mean聚类法,对广东省1996-2015年土地利用碳排放强度和效率时空变化规律进行研究,结果表明:(1)广东省净碳排放量持续增加,年均增幅6.04%,建设用地是主要碳源,林地是主要碳汇;(2)广东省各区域净碳排放量、耕地与建设用地碳排放量的变化幅度为粤北<粤东和粤西<珠江三角洲,林地碳吸收量变化幅度为粤东和粤西<珠江三角洲<粤北;(3)20 a来随着人均GDP增加,广东省单位GDP碳排放持续下降,土地利用碳排放效益明显提升;(4)以人均碳排放为排放量指标,以单位GDP碳排放为排放效率指标,广东省21个地级市可以分为4类:高排放-中效率(HE-ME)、高排放-低效率(HE-LE)、中排放-低效率(ME-LE)和低排放-高效率(LE-HE)。目前,广东碳减排工作取得一定成效,但碳减排形势仍然严峻,未来应该继续对碳排放强度和效率进行调控,加快转变经济发展方式,着力推进低碳示范省建设。
Guangdong is one of the national trial provinces pursuing low-carbon emission in China. As a major economic province,developing low-carbon economy is an urgent need for Guangdong to promote its socioeconomic quality and shoulder the responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emission. At regional scale, carbon emission is closely related to land use changes. To to deep into understanding the mechanisms of carbon emission due to land use changes is crucial for developing correct strategy for reducing carbon emission in future. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of carbon emission in Guangdong province from 1996 to 2015 based on land use emission coefficient and the K-mean clustering method. The results showed that Guangdong's net carbon discharge had been rising by on average an annual rate of 6.04%. In terms of the effects of land use on carbon emission, the construction land was the main carbon source whereas forest land was the main carbon sink. Besides, regarding carbon discharge in the past two decades, the northern Guangdong had the least net carbon emission that were mainly from farmland and construction land while the Pearl River Delta had the largest net carbon emission that were mainly from farmland and construction land. As per capita GDP increasing in the past two decades, carbon emission per unit GDP in Guangdong had been declining, indicating that the emission efficiency of land use had significantly been improved. Moreover, the carbon uptake by forest land in eastern and western Guangdong had the least change while the largest change took place in the northern Guangdong. By treating carbon emission per capita as the emission indicator and carbon emission per unit GDP as the efficiency indicator, the 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong could be classified into four categories: the high emission-medium efficiency, the high emission-low efficiency, the medium emission-low efficiency, and the low emission-high efficiency group. Although some achievements have been made at present, the situation of carbon emission reduction in Guangdong is still severe. In future, we should continue to regulate the intensity and efficiency of carbon emission, accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development, and focus on promoting the construction of low-carbon demonstration provinces.
Guangdong is one of the national trial provinces pursuing low-carbon emission in China. As a major economic province,developing low-carbon economy is an urgent need for Guangdong to promote its socioeconomic quality and shoulder the responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emission. At regional scale, carbon emission is closely related to land use changes. To to deep into understanding the mechanisms of carbon emission due to land use changes is crucial for developing correct strategy for reducing carbon emission in future. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of carbon emission in Guangdong province from 1996 to 2015 based on land use emission coefficient and the K-mean clustering method. The results showed that Guangdong's net carbon discharge had been rising by on average an annual rate of 6.04%. In terms of the effects of land use on carbon emission, the construction land was the main carbon source whereas forest land was the main carbon sink. Besides, regarding carbon discharge in the past two decades, the northern Guangdong had the least net carbon emission that were mainly from farmland and construction land while the Pearl River Delta had the largest net carbon emission that were mainly from farmland and construction land. As per capita GDP increasing in the past two decades, carbon emission per unit GDP in Guangdong had been declining, indicating that the emission efficiency of land use had significantly been improved. Moreover, the carbon uptake by forest land in eastern and western Guangdong had the least change while the largest change took place in the northern Guangdong. By treating carbon emission per capita as the emission indicator and carbon emission per unit GDP as the efficiency indicator, the 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong could be classified into four categories: the high emission-medium efficiency, the high emission-low efficiency, the medium emission-low efficiency, and the low emission-high efficiency group. Although some achievements have been made at present, the situation of carbon emission reduction in Guangdong is still severe. In future, we should continue to regulate the intensity and efficiency of carbon emission, accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development, and focus on promoting the construction of low-carbon demonstration provinces.
引文
DONG F,LONG R,CHEN H,et al.,2013.Factors Affecting Regional Per-Capita Carbon Emissions in China Based on an LMDI Factor Decomposition Model[J].Plos One,8(12):644-659.
GAO L,WEN X,GUO Y T,et al.,2014.Spatiotemporal Variability of Carbon Flux from Different Land Use and Land Cover Changes:ACase Study in Hubei Province,China[J].Energies,7(4):2298-2316.
LI P,HUANG Z L,REN H,et al.,2010.The Evolution of Environmental Management Philosophy Under Rapid Economic Development in China[J].Ambio,40(1):88-92.
LIU Z,GUAN D B,WEI W,et al.,2015.Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China[J].Nature,524(7565):335-338.
REN H,CHEN H,LI L J,et al.,2013.Spatial and temporal patterns of carbon storage from 1992 to 2002 in forest ecosystems in Guangdong,Southern China[J].Plant and Soil,363(1-2):123-138.
SITCH S,FRIEDLINGSTEIN P,GRUBER N,et al.,2015.Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide[J].Biogeosciences,12(3):653-679.
STUIVER M,1978.Atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon reservoir changes[J].Science(New York,NY),199(4326):253-258.
XU Q,DONG Y X,YANG R,2018.Urbanization impact on carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta region:Kuznets curve relationships[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,180:514-523.
陈江龙,李平星,高金龙,2016.1990-2014年泛长三角地区能源利用碳排放时空格局及影响因素[J].地理科学进展,35(12):1472-1482.CHEN J L,LI P X,GAO J L,2016.Spatio-temporal patterns and influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region,1990?2014[J].Progress in Geography,35(12):1472-1482.
董聪,董秀成,蒋庆哲,等,2018.《巴黎协定》背景下中国碳排放情景预测:基于BP神经网络模型[J].生态经济,34(2):18-23.DONG C,DONG X,JIANG Q,et al.,2018.Scenarios prediction of the carbon dioxide emissions in China under the background of the Paris Agreement based on BP neural network[J].Ecological Economy,34(2):18-23.
冯梅,杨桑,郑紫夫,2018.碳排放影响因素的VAR模型分析:基于北京市数据[J].科学管理研究,36(5):78-81.FENG M,YANG S,ZHENG Z F,2018.Study on influencing factors of carbon emission in Beijing based on VAR mode[J].Scientific Management Research,36(5):78-81.
葛全胜,戴君虎,何凡能,等,2008.过去300年中国土地利用、土地覆被变化与碳循环研究[J].中国科学:地球科学,38(2):197-210.GE Q S,DAI J H,HE F N,et al.,2008.The research of land use/cover change and carbon cycle of China in the past 300 years[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,38(2):197-210.
广东国土资源年鉴编委会,2016.广东国土资源年鉴[M].广东:广东省地图出版社.Guangdong Land and Resources Yearbook Editorial Committee,2016.Guangdong Land and Resources Yearbook[M].Guangdong:Guangdong Map Publishing House.
广东省统计局,2016.广东统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社.Statistical Bureau of Guangdong Province,2016.Guangdong Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistical Publishing House.
广东统计信息网,2016.向全面小康奋进的五年:“十二五”时期广东经济社会发展综述[EB/OL].WWW.GDSTATS.GOV.CN,2016.Five years of striving for a well-off society in an all-round way:a summary of Guangdong's economic and social development during the 12th Five-Year Plan period[EB/OL].
韩骥,周翔,象伟宁,2016.土地利用碳排放效应及其低碳管理研究进展[J].生态学报,36(4):1152-1161.HAN J,ZHOU X,XIANG W N,2016.Progress in research on land use effects on carbon emissions and low carbon management[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,36(4):1152-1161.
韩坚,盛培宏,2014.产业结构、技术创新与碳排放实证研究:基于我国东部15个省(市)面板数据[J].上海经济研究(8):67-74.HAN J,SHENG P H,2014.An empirical study about industrial structure,technological innovation and carbon emissions:panel data based on the 15 provinces(cities)of eastern China[J].Shanghai Journal of Economics(8):67-74.
洪凯,朱子玉,2017.珠三角农地利用中的碳排放时空特征及影响因素:基于1996-2014年数据[J].湖南农业大学学报:社会科学版,18(1):70-76.HONG K,ZHU Z Y,2017.Temporal and spatial characteristics and influential factors of agricultural land use carbon emissions in Pearl River Delta:based on the data from 1996 to 2014[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University:Social Sciences,18(1):70-76.
姜春,吴志峰,程炯,等,2016.广东省土地覆盖变化对植被净初级生产力的影响分析[J].自然资源学报,31(6):961-972.JIANG C,WU Z F,CHENG J,et al.,2016.Analyzing the effects of land cover change on vegetation net primary productivity in Guangdong Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,31(6):961-972.
蓝家程,傅瓦利,袁波,等,2012.重庆市不同土地利用碳排放及碳足迹分析[J].水土保持学报,26(1):146-150,155.LAN J C,FU W L,YUAN B,et al.,2012.Analysis of land use patterns on carbon emission and carbon footprint in Chongqing City[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,26(1):146-150,155.
黎孔清,陈银蓉,2013.低碳理念下的南京市土地集约利用评价[J].中国土地科学,27(1):61-66.LI K Q,CHEN Y R,2013.Evaluation on the intensity of urban land use based on low-carbon concept:a case study of Nanjing City[J].China Land Sciences,27(1):61-66.
李春丽,唐宏,张志丹,等,2016.基于不同土地利用的吉林省碳排放时空格局分析[J].水土保持学报,30(1):250-254,284.LI C L,TANG H,ZHANG Z D,et al.,2016.Analysis of spatial-temporal pattern of carbon emission in Jilin Province based on different land use types[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,30(1):250-254,284.
李颖,黄贤金,甄峰,2008.江苏省区域不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应分析[J].农业工程学报,24(S2):102-107.LI Y,HUANG X J,ZHEN F,2008.Effects of land use patterns on carbon emission in Jiangsu Province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,24(S2):102-107.
李玉玲,李世平,祁静静,2018.陕西省土地利用碳排放影响因素及脱钩效应分析[J].水土保持研究,25(1):382-390.LI Y L,LI S P,QI J J,2018.Influencing factors on carbon emissions of land uses and analysis of their decoupling effects in Shaanxi Province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,25(1):382-390.
刘继森,颜雯晶,2010.广东省经济增长与碳排放的关系研究[J].广东外语外贸大学学报,21(2):19-21,50.LIU J S,YAN W J,2010.On the relationship between economic growth in Guangdong Province and carbon emissions[J].Journal of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,21(2):19-21,50.
刘洋,2017.广东省土地利用碳排放与经济增长关系及其影响因素研究[D].广州:华南理工大学.LIU Y,2017.The study on the relationship between land use carbon emissions and economic growth and effect factors in Guangdong Province[D].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology.
路昌,雷国平,周浩,等,2016.松嫩平原肇源县土地利用结构低碳优化研究[J].水土保持研究,23(5):310-315,321.LU C,LEI G P,ZHOU H,et al.,2016.Study on optimization of low carbon-based land use structure in Zhaoyuan County of Songnen Plain[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,23(5):310-315,321.
庞庆华,杨田田,李涵,2018.城市碳排放、产业结构和区域创新的空间联系:基于江苏省13个地级市的数据分析[J].华东经济管理,32(12):1-7.PANG Q H,YANG T T,LI H,2018.The spatial relationship between urban carbon emissions,industrial structure and regional innovation:an analysis based on the data from 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province[J].East China Economic Management,32(12):1-7.
曲福田,卢娜,冯淑怡,2011.土地利用变化对碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,21(10):76-83.QU F T,LU N,FENG S Y,2011.Effects of land use change on carbon emissions[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,21(10):76-83.
宋德勇,卢忠宝,2009.中国碳排放影响因素分解及其周期性波动研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,19(3):18-24.SONG D Y,LU Z B,2009.The factor decomposition and periodic fluctuations of carbon emission in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,19(3):18-24.
苏雅丽,张艳芳,2011.陕西省土地利用变化的碳排放效益研究[J].水土保持学报,25(1):152-156.SU Y L,ZHANG Y F,2011.Study on effects of carbon emission by land use patterns of Shaanxi Province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,25(1):152-156.
王喜,鲁丰先,秦耀辰,等,2016.河南省碳源碳汇的时空变化研究[J].地理科学进展,35(8):941-951.WANG X,LU F X,QIN Y C,et al.,2016.Spatial and temporal changes of carbon sources and sinks in Henan Province[J].Progress in Geography,35(8):941-951.
吴萌,2017.武汉市土地利用碳排放分析与系统动力学仿真[D].武汉:华中农业大学.WU M,2017.Analytical and system dynamics simulation of land use carbon emission in Wuhan City[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University.
徐理,2012.潜江市土地利用碳排放效应及低碳优化研究[D].武汉:华中师范大学.XU L,2012.Effects of carbon emission by land use and low carbon optimization in Qianjiang City[D].Wuhan:Central China Normal University.
许思维,2018.东北地区土地利用碳排放特征及影响因素研究[D].沈阳:沈阳师范大学.XU S W,2018.Study on the characteristics and influencing factors of land use carbon emissions in northeast China abstract[D].Shenyang:Shenyang Normal University.
杨亮洁,杨永春,2017.石羊河流域土地利用变化对区域碳排放和碳吸收的影响[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,53(6):749-756,763.YANG L J,YANG Y C,2017.Land use/cover changes and its effects on carbon emission and carbon absorption in Shiyang River Basin[J].Journal of Lanzhou University:Natural Sciences,53(6):749-756,763.
张苗,甘臣林,陈银蓉,2016.基于SBM模型的土地集约利用碳排放效率分析与低碳优化[J].中国土地科学,30(3):37-45.ZHANG M,GAN C L,CHEN Y R,2016.Carbon emission efficiency analysis and low carbon optimization for urban land intensive use based on SBM model[J].China Land Sciences,30(3):37-45.
张维阳,段学军,2012.经济增长、产业结构与碳排放相互关系研究进展[J].地理科学进展,31(4):442-450.ZHANG W Y,DUAN X J,2012.The research progress in the relationship among economic growth,industrial structure and carbon emissions[J].Progress in Geography,31(4):442-450.
赵巧芝,闫庆友,赵海蕊,2018.中国省域碳排放的空间特征及影响因素[J].北京理工大学学报:社会科学版,20(1):9-16.ZHAO Q Z,YAN Q Y,ZHAO H R,2018.Research on spatial characteristics and influencing factors of provincial carbon emissions in China[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology:Social Sciences Edition,20(1):9-16.
赵荣钦,陈志刚,黄贤金,等,2012.南京大学土地利用碳排放研究进展[J].地理科学,32(12):1473-1480.ZHAO R Q,CHEN Z G,HUANG X J,et al.,2012.Research progresses of land use carbon emission in Nanjing University[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,32(12):1473-1480.
赵荣钦,黄贤金,钟太洋,等,2013.区域土地利用结构的碳效应评估及低碳优化[J].农业工程学报,29(17):220-229.ZHAO R Q,HUANG X J,ZHONG T Y,et al.,2013.Carbon effect evaluation and low-carbon optimization of regional land use[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,29(17):220-229.
赵先超,朱翔,周跃云,2013.湖南省不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应及时空格局分析[J].环境科学学报,33(3):941-949.ZHAO X C,ZHU X,ZHOU Y Y,2013.Effects of land uses on carbon emissions and their spatial-temporal patterns in Hunan Province[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,33(3):941-949.
钟超,刘宇,汪明月,等,2018.中国碳强度减排目标实现的路径及可行性研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,28(10):18-26.ZHONG C,LIU Y,WANG M Y,et al.,2018.Feasibility study on China's potential paths to intensity-based carbon reduction targets[J].China population,resources and environment,28(10):18-26.
周嘉,杨琳,董美娜,等,2015.基于土地利用的哈尔滨市2004-2012年碳排放强度变化分析[J].地理科学,35(3):322-327.ZHOU J,YANG L,DONG M N,et al.,2015.Carbon emissions intensity change analysis based on land use in Harbin City from 2004to 2012[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,35(3):322-327.
周健,肖荣波,庄长伟,等,2013.城市森林碳汇及其抵消能源碳排放效果:以广州为例[J].生态学报,33(18):5865-5873.ZHOU J,XIAO R B,ZHUANG C W,et al.,2013.The carbon sink of urban forests and efficacy on offsetting energy carbon emissions from city in Guangzhou[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,33(18):5865-5873.
朱宇恩,李丽芬,贺思思,等,2016.基于IPAT模型和情景分析法的山西省碳排放峰值年预测[J].资源科学,38(12):2316-2325.ZHU Y E,LI L F,HE S S,et al.,2016.Peak year prediction of Shanxi Province’s carbon emissions based on IPAT modeling and scenario analysis[J].Resources Science,38(12):2316-2325.
GAO L,WEN X,GUO Y T,et al.,2014.Spatiotemporal Variability of Carbon Flux from Different Land Use and Land Cover Changes:ACase Study in Hubei Province,China[J].Energies,7(4):2298-2316.
LI P,HUANG Z L,REN H,et al.,2010.The Evolution of Environmental Management Philosophy Under Rapid Economic Development in China[J].Ambio,40(1):88-92.
LIU Z,GUAN D B,WEI W,et al.,2015.Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China[J].Nature,524(7565):335-338.
REN H,CHEN H,LI L J,et al.,2013.Spatial and temporal patterns of carbon storage from 1992 to 2002 in forest ecosystems in Guangdong,Southern China[J].Plant and Soil,363(1-2):123-138.
SITCH S,FRIEDLINGSTEIN P,GRUBER N,et al.,2015.Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide[J].Biogeosciences,12(3):653-679.
STUIVER M,1978.Atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon reservoir changes[J].Science(New York,NY),199(4326):253-258.
XU Q,DONG Y X,YANG R,2018.Urbanization impact on carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta region:Kuznets curve relationships[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,180:514-523.
陈江龙,李平星,高金龙,2016.1990-2014年泛长三角地区能源利用碳排放时空格局及影响因素[J].地理科学进展,35(12):1472-1482.CHEN J L,LI P X,GAO J L,2016.Spatio-temporal patterns and influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region,1990?2014[J].Progress in Geography,35(12):1472-1482.
董聪,董秀成,蒋庆哲,等,2018.《巴黎协定》背景下中国碳排放情景预测:基于BP神经网络模型[J].生态经济,34(2):18-23.DONG C,DONG X,JIANG Q,et al.,2018.Scenarios prediction of the carbon dioxide emissions in China under the background of the Paris Agreement based on BP neural network[J].Ecological Economy,34(2):18-23.
冯梅,杨桑,郑紫夫,2018.碳排放影响因素的VAR模型分析:基于北京市数据[J].科学管理研究,36(5):78-81.FENG M,YANG S,ZHENG Z F,2018.Study on influencing factors of carbon emission in Beijing based on VAR mode[J].Scientific Management Research,36(5):78-81.
葛全胜,戴君虎,何凡能,等,2008.过去300年中国土地利用、土地覆被变化与碳循环研究[J].中国科学:地球科学,38(2):197-210.GE Q S,DAI J H,HE F N,et al.,2008.The research of land use/cover change and carbon cycle of China in the past 300 years[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,38(2):197-210.
广东国土资源年鉴编委会,2016.广东国土资源年鉴[M].广东:广东省地图出版社.Guangdong Land and Resources Yearbook Editorial Committee,2016.Guangdong Land and Resources Yearbook[M].Guangdong:Guangdong Map Publishing House.
广东省统计局,2016.广东统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社.Statistical Bureau of Guangdong Province,2016.Guangdong Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistical Publishing House.
广东统计信息网,2016.向全面小康奋进的五年:“十二五”时期广东经济社会发展综述[EB/OL].WWW.GDSTATS.GOV.CN,2016.Five years of striving for a well-off society in an all-round way:a summary of Guangdong's economic and social development during the 12th Five-Year Plan period[EB/OL].
韩骥,周翔,象伟宁,2016.土地利用碳排放效应及其低碳管理研究进展[J].生态学报,36(4):1152-1161.HAN J,ZHOU X,XIANG W N,2016.Progress in research on land use effects on carbon emissions and low carbon management[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,36(4):1152-1161.
韩坚,盛培宏,2014.产业结构、技术创新与碳排放实证研究:基于我国东部15个省(市)面板数据[J].上海经济研究(8):67-74.HAN J,SHENG P H,2014.An empirical study about industrial structure,technological innovation and carbon emissions:panel data based on the 15 provinces(cities)of eastern China[J].Shanghai Journal of Economics(8):67-74.
洪凯,朱子玉,2017.珠三角农地利用中的碳排放时空特征及影响因素:基于1996-2014年数据[J].湖南农业大学学报:社会科学版,18(1):70-76.HONG K,ZHU Z Y,2017.Temporal and spatial characteristics and influential factors of agricultural land use carbon emissions in Pearl River Delta:based on the data from 1996 to 2014[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University:Social Sciences,18(1):70-76.
姜春,吴志峰,程炯,等,2016.广东省土地覆盖变化对植被净初级生产力的影响分析[J].自然资源学报,31(6):961-972.JIANG C,WU Z F,CHENG J,et al.,2016.Analyzing the effects of land cover change on vegetation net primary productivity in Guangdong Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,31(6):961-972.
蓝家程,傅瓦利,袁波,等,2012.重庆市不同土地利用碳排放及碳足迹分析[J].水土保持学报,26(1):146-150,155.LAN J C,FU W L,YUAN B,et al.,2012.Analysis of land use patterns on carbon emission and carbon footprint in Chongqing City[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,26(1):146-150,155.
黎孔清,陈银蓉,2013.低碳理念下的南京市土地集约利用评价[J].中国土地科学,27(1):61-66.LI K Q,CHEN Y R,2013.Evaluation on the intensity of urban land use based on low-carbon concept:a case study of Nanjing City[J].China Land Sciences,27(1):61-66.
李春丽,唐宏,张志丹,等,2016.基于不同土地利用的吉林省碳排放时空格局分析[J].水土保持学报,30(1):250-254,284.LI C L,TANG H,ZHANG Z D,et al.,2016.Analysis of spatial-temporal pattern of carbon emission in Jilin Province based on different land use types[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,30(1):250-254,284.
李颖,黄贤金,甄峰,2008.江苏省区域不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应分析[J].农业工程学报,24(S2):102-107.LI Y,HUANG X J,ZHEN F,2008.Effects of land use patterns on carbon emission in Jiangsu Province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,24(S2):102-107.
李玉玲,李世平,祁静静,2018.陕西省土地利用碳排放影响因素及脱钩效应分析[J].水土保持研究,25(1):382-390.LI Y L,LI S P,QI J J,2018.Influencing factors on carbon emissions of land uses and analysis of their decoupling effects in Shaanxi Province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,25(1):382-390.
刘继森,颜雯晶,2010.广东省经济增长与碳排放的关系研究[J].广东外语外贸大学学报,21(2):19-21,50.LIU J S,YAN W J,2010.On the relationship between economic growth in Guangdong Province and carbon emissions[J].Journal of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,21(2):19-21,50.
刘洋,2017.广东省土地利用碳排放与经济增长关系及其影响因素研究[D].广州:华南理工大学.LIU Y,2017.The study on the relationship between land use carbon emissions and economic growth and effect factors in Guangdong Province[D].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology.
路昌,雷国平,周浩,等,2016.松嫩平原肇源县土地利用结构低碳优化研究[J].水土保持研究,23(5):310-315,321.LU C,LEI G P,ZHOU H,et al.,2016.Study on optimization of low carbon-based land use structure in Zhaoyuan County of Songnen Plain[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,23(5):310-315,321.
庞庆华,杨田田,李涵,2018.城市碳排放、产业结构和区域创新的空间联系:基于江苏省13个地级市的数据分析[J].华东经济管理,32(12):1-7.PANG Q H,YANG T T,LI H,2018.The spatial relationship between urban carbon emissions,industrial structure and regional innovation:an analysis based on the data from 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province[J].East China Economic Management,32(12):1-7.
曲福田,卢娜,冯淑怡,2011.土地利用变化对碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,21(10):76-83.QU F T,LU N,FENG S Y,2011.Effects of land use change on carbon emissions[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,21(10):76-83.
宋德勇,卢忠宝,2009.中国碳排放影响因素分解及其周期性波动研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,19(3):18-24.SONG D Y,LU Z B,2009.The factor decomposition and periodic fluctuations of carbon emission in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,19(3):18-24.
苏雅丽,张艳芳,2011.陕西省土地利用变化的碳排放效益研究[J].水土保持学报,25(1):152-156.SU Y L,ZHANG Y F,2011.Study on effects of carbon emission by land use patterns of Shaanxi Province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,25(1):152-156.
王喜,鲁丰先,秦耀辰,等,2016.河南省碳源碳汇的时空变化研究[J].地理科学进展,35(8):941-951.WANG X,LU F X,QIN Y C,et al.,2016.Spatial and temporal changes of carbon sources and sinks in Henan Province[J].Progress in Geography,35(8):941-951.
吴萌,2017.武汉市土地利用碳排放分析与系统动力学仿真[D].武汉:华中农业大学.WU M,2017.Analytical and system dynamics simulation of land use carbon emission in Wuhan City[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University.
徐理,2012.潜江市土地利用碳排放效应及低碳优化研究[D].武汉:华中师范大学.XU L,2012.Effects of carbon emission by land use and low carbon optimization in Qianjiang City[D].Wuhan:Central China Normal University.
许思维,2018.东北地区土地利用碳排放特征及影响因素研究[D].沈阳:沈阳师范大学.XU S W,2018.Study on the characteristics and influencing factors of land use carbon emissions in northeast China abstract[D].Shenyang:Shenyang Normal University.
杨亮洁,杨永春,2017.石羊河流域土地利用变化对区域碳排放和碳吸收的影响[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,53(6):749-756,763.YANG L J,YANG Y C,2017.Land use/cover changes and its effects on carbon emission and carbon absorption in Shiyang River Basin[J].Journal of Lanzhou University:Natural Sciences,53(6):749-756,763.
张苗,甘臣林,陈银蓉,2016.基于SBM模型的土地集约利用碳排放效率分析与低碳优化[J].中国土地科学,30(3):37-45.ZHANG M,GAN C L,CHEN Y R,2016.Carbon emission efficiency analysis and low carbon optimization for urban land intensive use based on SBM model[J].China Land Sciences,30(3):37-45.
张维阳,段学军,2012.经济增长、产业结构与碳排放相互关系研究进展[J].地理科学进展,31(4):442-450.ZHANG W Y,DUAN X J,2012.The research progress in the relationship among economic growth,industrial structure and carbon emissions[J].Progress in Geography,31(4):442-450.
赵巧芝,闫庆友,赵海蕊,2018.中国省域碳排放的空间特征及影响因素[J].北京理工大学学报:社会科学版,20(1):9-16.ZHAO Q Z,YAN Q Y,ZHAO H R,2018.Research on spatial characteristics and influencing factors of provincial carbon emissions in China[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology:Social Sciences Edition,20(1):9-16.
赵荣钦,陈志刚,黄贤金,等,2012.南京大学土地利用碳排放研究进展[J].地理科学,32(12):1473-1480.ZHAO R Q,CHEN Z G,HUANG X J,et al.,2012.Research progresses of land use carbon emission in Nanjing University[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,32(12):1473-1480.
赵荣钦,黄贤金,钟太洋,等,2013.区域土地利用结构的碳效应评估及低碳优化[J].农业工程学报,29(17):220-229.ZHAO R Q,HUANG X J,ZHONG T Y,et al.,2013.Carbon effect evaluation and low-carbon optimization of regional land use[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,29(17):220-229.
赵先超,朱翔,周跃云,2013.湖南省不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应及时空格局分析[J].环境科学学报,33(3):941-949.ZHAO X C,ZHU X,ZHOU Y Y,2013.Effects of land uses on carbon emissions and their spatial-temporal patterns in Hunan Province[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,33(3):941-949.
钟超,刘宇,汪明月,等,2018.中国碳强度减排目标实现的路径及可行性研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,28(10):18-26.ZHONG C,LIU Y,WANG M Y,et al.,2018.Feasibility study on China's potential paths to intensity-based carbon reduction targets[J].China population,resources and environment,28(10):18-26.
周嘉,杨琳,董美娜,等,2015.基于土地利用的哈尔滨市2004-2012年碳排放强度变化分析[J].地理科学,35(3):322-327.ZHOU J,YANG L,DONG M N,et al.,2015.Carbon emissions intensity change analysis based on land use in Harbin City from 2004to 2012[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,35(3):322-327.
周健,肖荣波,庄长伟,等,2013.城市森林碳汇及其抵消能源碳排放效果:以广州为例[J].生态学报,33(18):5865-5873.ZHOU J,XIAO R B,ZHUANG C W,et al.,2013.The carbon sink of urban forests and efficacy on offsetting energy carbon emissions from city in Guangzhou[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,33(18):5865-5873.
朱宇恩,李丽芬,贺思思,等,2016.基于IPAT模型和情景分析法的山西省碳排放峰值年预测[J].资源科学,38(12):2316-2325.ZHU Y E,LI L F,HE S S,et al.,2016.Peak year prediction of Shanxi Province’s carbon emissions based on IPAT modeling and scenario analysis[J].Resources Science,38(12):2316-2325.