全程机械化背景下水稻生产环节劳动力与机械的替代弹性分析——基于江苏省水稻种植户调查数据
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摘要
【目的】在劳动力价格上升的背景下,测算水稻机械化生产中劳动力与农业机械的影子替代弹性,为我国农业全程机械化实现路径提供理论参考。【方法】根据诱致性技术变迁理论,基于2015—2017年江苏省水稻种植户追踪调查数据,利用超越对数成本函数模型对水稻生产中农业机械和劳动力的影子替代弹性进行实证分析,进一步比较各生产环节的替代差异并对其中原因进行探究。【结果】价格仍然是水稻生产中劳动力和机械要素需求的重要调节指标;水稻生产过程中劳动力和机械投入间存在显著的替代关系,全过程的平均替代弹性为0.331,且随着时间的推移替代强度逐渐增大;耕地、收割和播种(插秧)三大环节中劳动力和机械的平均替代弹性分别为0.384、0.358和0.315,播种(插秧)环节明显小于耕地和收割环节。进一步探究发现,在播种环节,农户选择节约劳动力的播种方式不是唯一,直播技术对机插秧有很强的替代性。【建议】合理调控农业要素价格,不断完善要素市场机制机制;应加大农业机械化的推广力度,形成对劳动力的有效替代;同时,在全程机械化过程中应特别关注各生产环节对机械的差异化需求,根据现实情况有针对性和方向性地进行推广。
【Objective】Under the background of rising labor price,the elasticity of substitution between labor and machinery in rice mechanized production was estimated in order to provide reference for implementation path of mechanization process of agriculture in China.【Method】According to the induced technology change theory,the trans-log cost function model was used to empirically measure the shadow substitution elasticity between agricultural machinery and labor in rice production,which was based on the tracking survey data of rice farmers in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2017. And the substitution differences between various production links were also compared,then the related reasons were explored.【Result】The results showed that,price was still an important regulation indicator for the demand for labor and machinery in rice production. There was a significant substitution relationship between labor and machinery in the rice production.The average elasticity of substitution of the whole process was 0.331,and it increased gradually with time. The average elasticity of substitution between labor and machinery in plow,harvest and sowing(transplanting)were 0.384,0.358 and0.315,respectively. Moreover,at the sowing(transplanting)link,the choice of saving labor was not unique due to the substitution of direct seeding technology to machine transplanting,which led to the substitution elasticity in the sowing(transplanting)link was much smaller than that of the plow and harvest.【Suggestion】Therefore,the agricultural factors prices should be reasonably regulated,and the factor market mechanism should be improved. The extension strength of agricultural mechanization should be increased to form an effective substitute for labor force. Meanwhile,in the process of promoting the mechanization of agriculture,the differentiated demand for machinery in various production links must be paid attention to,and promote it according to the actual situation.
【Objective】Under the background of rising labor price,the elasticity of substitution between labor and machinery in rice mechanized production was estimated in order to provide reference for implementation path of mechanization process of agriculture in China.【Method】According to the induced technology change theory,the trans-log cost function model was used to empirically measure the shadow substitution elasticity between agricultural machinery and labor in rice production,which was based on the tracking survey data of rice farmers in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2017. And the substitution differences between various production links were also compared,then the related reasons were explored.【Result】The results showed that,price was still an important regulation indicator for the demand for labor and machinery in rice production. There was a significant substitution relationship between labor and machinery in the rice production.The average elasticity of substitution of the whole process was 0.331,and it increased gradually with time. The average elasticity of substitution between labor and machinery in plow,harvest and sowing(transplanting)were 0.384,0.358 and0.315,respectively. Moreover,at the sowing(transplanting)link,the choice of saving labor was not unique due to the substitution of direct seeding technology to machine transplanting,which led to the substitution elasticity in the sowing(transplanting)link was much smaller than that of the plow and harvest.【Suggestion】Therefore,the agricultural factors prices should be reasonably regulated,and the factor market mechanism should be improved. The extension strength of agricultural mechanization should be increased to form an effective substitute for labor force. Meanwhile,in the process of promoting the mechanization of agriculture,the differentiated demand for machinery in various production links must be paid attention to,and promote it according to the actual situation.
引文
陈书章,宋晓春,宋宁,王济民,马恒运.2013.中国小麦生产技术进步及要素需求与替代行为[J].中国农村经济,(9):18-30.[Chen S Z,Song X C,Song N,Wang J M,Ma H Y.2013.Production technology advancement,factor demand and alternative behavior of wheat in China[J].Chinese Rural Economy,(9):18-30.]
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黄晨鸣,朱臻.2018.雇工劳动对农户粮食生产技术效率的影响研究--基于三省水稻种植户的调查[J].农业现代化研究,39(2):229-238.[Huang C M,Zhu Z.2018.The effects of contract-labors on technical efficiency of grain production:Based on a survey data of rice farms in three provinces[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,39(2):229-238.]
黄玛兰,李晓云,游良志.2018.农业机械与农业劳动力投入对粮食产出的影响及其替代弹性[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),(2):37-45.[Huang M L,Li X Y,You L Z.2018.Impact of agricultural machinery and agricultural labor investment on grain production and its elasticity of substitution[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),(2):37-45.]
李谷成,梁玲尹,朝静,冯中朝.2015.劳动力转移损害了油菜生产吗?--基于要素产出弹性和替代弹性的实证[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),(1):7-13.[Li G C,Liang L Y,Chao J,Feng Z C.2015.Did labor transfer harm production of rapeseeds in China?-Based on factor production elasticity and substitution elasticity[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),(1):7-13.]
李红.2008.农业机械替代劳动力的实证分析[J].农业与技术,28(2):111-116.[Li H.2008.Empirical analysis of the substitution relationship between agricultural machinery and labor[J].Agriculture and Technology,28(2):111-116.]
林毅夫,沈明高.1990.我国农业技术变迁的一般经验和政策含义[J].经济社会体制比较,(2):10-18.[Lin Y F,Shen M G.1990.General experience and policy implications of agricultural technology change in China[J].Comparative Economic&Social Systems,(2):10-18.]
马凯,史常亮,王忠平.2011.粮食生产中农业机械与劳动力的替代弹性分析[J].农机化研究,33(8):6-9.[Ma K,Shi C L,Wang Z P.2011.Analysis of substitution relation between rural labor and agro-mechanism in grain production[J].Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research,33(8):6-9.]
闵师,项诚,赵启然,王晓兵.2018.中国主要农产品生产的机械劳动力替代弹性分析--基于不同弹性估计方法的比较研究[J].农业技术经济,(4):4-14.[Min S,Xiang C,Zhao Q R,Wang X B.2018.Elasticity of substitution between machines and labor in China’s agricultural production:A comparison based on various elasticity estimations[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,(4):4-14.]
王晓兵,许迪,张砚杰,杨军.2016.农场规模、劳动力投入量与技术效率及其相关性问题研究[J].资源科学,38(3):476-484.[Wang X B,Xu D,Zhang Y J,Yang J.2016.The relevance of farm scale,labor inputs and technical efficiency[J].Resources Science,38(3):476-484.]
吴丽丽,李谷成,周晓时.2016.中国粮食生产要素之间的替代关系研究--基于劳动力成本上升的背景[J].中南财经政法大学学报,(2):140-148.[Wu L L,Li G C,Zhou X S.2016.The demand and substitution relations of grain production factors[J].Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,(2):140-148.]
应瑞瑶,郑旭媛.2013.资源禀赋、要素替代与农业生产经营方式转型--以苏、浙粮食生产为例[J].农业经济问题,34(12):15-24.[Ying R Y,Zheng X Y.2013.Resources endowment,factor substitution and the transformation of agricultural production and operation:Example from food production in Jiangsu and Zhejiang[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,34(12):15-24.]
郑旭媛,徐志刚.2016.资源禀赋约束、要素替代与诱致性技术变迁--以中国粮食生产的机械化为例[J].经济学(季刊),16(1):45-66.[Zheng X Y,Xu Z G.2016.Endowment restriction,factor substitution and induced technological innovation:A case research on the grain production mechanization in China[J].China Economic Quarterly,16(1):45-66.]
Caloghirou Y D,Mourelatos A G,Thopson H.1997.Industrial energy substitution during the 1980s in the Greek economy[J].Energy Economics,19(4):476-491.
Stratopoulos T,Charos E,Chaston K.2000.A translog estimation of the average cost function of the steel industry with financial accounting data[J].International Advances in Economic Research,6(2):271-286.
Wang X B,Yamauchi F,Huang J K.2016.Rising wages,mechanization,and the substitution between capital and labor:Evidence from small scale farm system in China[J].Agricultural Economics,47(3):309-317.
郝枫.2015.超越对数函数要素替代弹性公式修正与估计方法比较[J].数量经济技术经济研究,(4):88-105.[Hao F.2015.Formuls correcttion and estimation methods comparison on elasticity of substitution within translog functions[J].The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,(4):88-105.]
黄晨鸣,朱臻.2018.雇工劳动对农户粮食生产技术效率的影响研究--基于三省水稻种植户的调查[J].农业现代化研究,39(2):229-238.[Huang C M,Zhu Z.2018.The effects of contract-labors on technical efficiency of grain production:Based on a survey data of rice farms in three provinces[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,39(2):229-238.]
黄玛兰,李晓云,游良志.2018.农业机械与农业劳动力投入对粮食产出的影响及其替代弹性[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),(2):37-45.[Huang M L,Li X Y,You L Z.2018.Impact of agricultural machinery and agricultural labor investment on grain production and its elasticity of substitution[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),(2):37-45.]
李谷成,梁玲尹,朝静,冯中朝.2015.劳动力转移损害了油菜生产吗?--基于要素产出弹性和替代弹性的实证[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),(1):7-13.[Li G C,Liang L Y,Chao J,Feng Z C.2015.Did labor transfer harm production of rapeseeds in China?-Based on factor production elasticity and substitution elasticity[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),(1):7-13.]
李红.2008.农业机械替代劳动力的实证分析[J].农业与技术,28(2):111-116.[Li H.2008.Empirical analysis of the substitution relationship between agricultural machinery and labor[J].Agriculture and Technology,28(2):111-116.]
林毅夫,沈明高.1990.我国农业技术变迁的一般经验和政策含义[J].经济社会体制比较,(2):10-18.[Lin Y F,Shen M G.1990.General experience and policy implications of agricultural technology change in China[J].Comparative Economic&Social Systems,(2):10-18.]
马凯,史常亮,王忠平.2011.粮食生产中农业机械与劳动力的替代弹性分析[J].农机化研究,33(8):6-9.[Ma K,Shi C L,Wang Z P.2011.Analysis of substitution relation between rural labor and agro-mechanism in grain production[J].Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research,33(8):6-9.]
闵师,项诚,赵启然,王晓兵.2018.中国主要农产品生产的机械劳动力替代弹性分析--基于不同弹性估计方法的比较研究[J].农业技术经济,(4):4-14.[Min S,Xiang C,Zhao Q R,Wang X B.2018.Elasticity of substitution between machines and labor in China’s agricultural production:A comparison based on various elasticity estimations[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,(4):4-14.]
王晓兵,许迪,张砚杰,杨军.2016.农场规模、劳动力投入量与技术效率及其相关性问题研究[J].资源科学,38(3):476-484.[Wang X B,Xu D,Zhang Y J,Yang J.2016.The relevance of farm scale,labor inputs and technical efficiency[J].Resources Science,38(3):476-484.]
吴丽丽,李谷成,周晓时.2016.中国粮食生产要素之间的替代关系研究--基于劳动力成本上升的背景[J].中南财经政法大学学报,(2):140-148.[Wu L L,Li G C,Zhou X S.2016.The demand and substitution relations of grain production factors[J].Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,(2):140-148.]
应瑞瑶,郑旭媛.2013.资源禀赋、要素替代与农业生产经营方式转型--以苏、浙粮食生产为例[J].农业经济问题,34(12):15-24.[Ying R Y,Zheng X Y.2013.Resources endowment,factor substitution and the transformation of agricultural production and operation:Example from food production in Jiangsu and Zhejiang[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,34(12):15-24.]
郑旭媛,徐志刚.2016.资源禀赋约束、要素替代与诱致性技术变迁--以中国粮食生产的机械化为例[J].经济学(季刊),16(1):45-66.[Zheng X Y,Xu Z G.2016.Endowment restriction,factor substitution and induced technological innovation:A case research on the grain production mechanization in China[J].China Economic Quarterly,16(1):45-66.]
Caloghirou Y D,Mourelatos A G,Thopson H.1997.Industrial energy substitution during the 1980s in the Greek economy[J].Energy Economics,19(4):476-491.
Stratopoulos T,Charos E,Chaston K.2000.A translog estimation of the average cost function of the steel industry with financial accounting data[J].International Advances in Economic Research,6(2):271-286.
Wang X B,Yamauchi F,Huang J K.2016.Rising wages,mechanization,and the substitution between capital and labor:Evidence from small scale farm system in China[J].Agricultural Economics,47(3):309-317.
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