中国江淮地区夏季强降水事件的统计分析
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摘要
选取1980-2015年中国632个气象站的降水资料,从中筛选出江淮地区7次强降水事件,运用经验正交函数分解(EOF分析)和合成、相关方法分析了强降水的空间分布及其对应的环流特征。结果表明:在第一模态场(方差贡献率为22. 4%)中,该地区南北部降水量呈反相关关系,我国东部地区的降水形态从北到南为"-+-"的交替分布形态。在第二模态场(方差贡献率为17. 8%)中,江淮地区东南部与中西部地区的降水量呈现反相关关系,中国东部地区的降水形态从北到南为"-+"的偶极分布形态。500 h Pa平均高度场上,中纬度地区巴尔喀什湖及东北地区为两槽一脊型;第一模态时间系数与500 h Pa高度的相关场上,东北地区西部及内蒙古东部的等高线分布与江淮地区降水有较明显的负相关关系。850 h Pa高度,江淮地区主要为南风;相关场上,东北地区南部到华北地区的v→风场与江淮地区降水之间有较明显的负相关。表明当中纬度地区巴尔喀什湖及东北地区的槽加强时,华北地区北风与江淮地区南风会合,冷暖空气交汇于江淮,降水较多,呈第一模态降水的分布型。
Based on daily precipitation data from 1980 to 2015 for 632 meteorological observational stations in China,7 heavy rainfall events in Jianghuai region were selected. The spatial distribution and circulation pattern of these 7 heavy rainfall events in Jianghuai region were calculated using the Empirical Orthogonal Function( EOF)expansion and synthesis. The leading mode of Empirical Orthogonal Function( EOF)( can explain 22. 4% of the total variance) manifests when heavy rainfall event occurs in Jianghuai region,precipitations in northern part and in southern part of Jianghuai region showinverse relationship,the precipitation pattern shows"-+-"distribution from north to south over Eastern China. Precipitation anomalies of the second EOF mode( can explain 17. 8% of the total variance) shows that when heavy rainfall event occurs in Jianghuai region,precipitation in southeastern part and in central and western parts of Jianghuai region showinverse relationship,the precipitation pattern form north to south over eastern China is "-+"dipole distributions. The 500 hPa mean geopotential height field shows that,circulation feature shows Two-trough and One-ridge from Balkhash Lake to Northeast China in mid-latitude region. Using the principal components of the first EOF mode of the heavy rainfall events in Jianghuai region and the 500 hPa geopotential height field to get correlation coefficients. The result shows that,the contour distribution in the western part of Northeast China and the contour distribution in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia showinverse correlation with the precipitation in Jianghuai region. 850 hPa's wind blows northward over Jianghuai region. In the correlation coefficients field,the v-direction wind field from the southern part of Northeast China to North China shows inverse correlation with the precipitation in Jianghuai region. The result shows that,when the trough in Balkhash Lake and the trough in Northeast China get stronger,north wind over North China assembles with south wind over Jianghuai region. Meanwhile,confluence of cold air and warm air leading to more precipitation over Jianghuai region. Precipitation pattern is of the first EOF mode.
Based on daily precipitation data from 1980 to 2015 for 632 meteorological observational stations in China,7 heavy rainfall events in Jianghuai region were selected. The spatial distribution and circulation pattern of these 7 heavy rainfall events in Jianghuai region were calculated using the Empirical Orthogonal Function( EOF)expansion and synthesis. The leading mode of Empirical Orthogonal Function( EOF)( can explain 22. 4% of the total variance) manifests when heavy rainfall event occurs in Jianghuai region,precipitations in northern part and in southern part of Jianghuai region showinverse relationship,the precipitation pattern shows"-+-"distribution from north to south over Eastern China. Precipitation anomalies of the second EOF mode( can explain 17. 8% of the total variance) shows that when heavy rainfall event occurs in Jianghuai region,precipitation in southeastern part and in central and western parts of Jianghuai region showinverse relationship,the precipitation pattern form north to south over eastern China is "-+"dipole distributions. The 500 hPa mean geopotential height field shows that,circulation feature shows Two-trough and One-ridge from Balkhash Lake to Northeast China in mid-latitude region. Using the principal components of the first EOF mode of the heavy rainfall events in Jianghuai region and the 500 hPa geopotential height field to get correlation coefficients. The result shows that,the contour distribution in the western part of Northeast China and the contour distribution in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia showinverse correlation with the precipitation in Jianghuai region. 850 hPa's wind blows northward over Jianghuai region. In the correlation coefficients field,the v-direction wind field from the southern part of Northeast China to North China shows inverse correlation with the precipitation in Jianghuai region. The result shows that,when the trough in Balkhash Lake and the trough in Northeast China get stronger,north wind over North China assembles with south wind over Jianghuai region. Meanwhile,confluence of cold air and warm air leading to more precipitation over Jianghuai region. Precipitation pattern is of the first EOF mode.
引文
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毛文书,王谦谦,李国平,2008.江淮梅雨异常的大气环流特征[J].高原气象,27(6):1267-1275.
覃军,王盘兴,2005.中国东部夏季三个雨带降水的年代际变化及其与中高纬环流和海温的关系[J].热带气象学报,21(1):63-71.
钱维宏,符娇兰,张玮玮,等,2007.近40年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述[J].地球科学进展,22(7):673-684.
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孙凤华,张耀存,郭兰丽,2009.中国东部夏季降水与同期东亚副热带急流年代际异常的关系[J].高原气象,28(6):1308-1315.
苏同华,薛峰,2010.东亚夏季风环流和雨带的季节内变化[J].大气科学,34(3):611-628.
孙照渤,陈海山,谭桂容,等,2010.短期气候预测基础[M].北京:气象出版社,223-232.
施能,1995.气象科研与预报中的多元分析方法[M].北京:气象出版社,344.
陶诗言,卫捷,2006.再论夏季西太平洋副热带高压的西伸北跳[J].应用气象学报,17(5):513-524.
魏凤英,2006.长江中下游夏季降水异常变化与若干强迫因子的关系[J].大气科学,30(2):202-211.
吴志伟,江志红,何金海,2006.近50年华南前汛期降水、江淮梅雨和华北雨季旱涝特征对比分析[J].大气科学,30(3):319-401.
徐建军,朱乾根,周铁汉,1998.东亚夏季风与中国夏季降水年际异常的分型研究[J].南京气象学院学报,21(3):313-320.
徐璇,陆日宇,石英,2011.全球和区域气候模式对中国东部夏季降水季节演变模拟的比较[J].大气科学,35(6):1177-1186.
王黎娟,陈璇,管兆勇,等,2011.江淮流域持续性强降水期间西太副高位置变异与非绝热加热的关系[J].热带气象学报,27(3):327-335.
杨玮,徐敏,周顺武,等,2017.江淮流域6-7月极端强降水事件时空变化及环流异常[J].高原气象,36(3):718-735.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00047.
俞亚勋,王式功,钱正安,等,2013.夏半年西太副高位置与东亚季风雨带(区)的气候联系[J].高原气象,32(5):1510-1525.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00033.
张铭,安洁,朱敏,2007.一次暴雨过程的EOF分析[J].大气科学,31(2):321-328.
翟盘茂,李蕾,周佰铨,等,2016.江淮流域持续性极端降水及预报
方法研究进展[J].应用气象学报,27(5):631-640.
Gao X J,Zhao Z C,Ding Y H,et al,2001.Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,18(6):1224-1230.
North G R,Bell T,Cahalan R,et al,1982.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal function[J].Monthly Weather Review,110:699-709.
Wang H J,2001.The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970s[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,18(3):376-386.
Yang H J,Zhang Q,2003.On the decadal and interdecadal variability in the Pacific ocean[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,20(2):173-184.
陈兴芳,孙林海,2002.我国年、季降水的年代际变化分析[J].气象,28(7):3-8.
邓伟涛,孙照渤,曾刚,等,2009.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学,33(4):835-846.
顾薇,李崇银,杨辉,2005.中国东部夏季主要降水型的年代际变化及趋势分析[J].气象学报,63(5):728-739.
黄荣辉,陈际龙,刘永,2011.我国东部夏季降水异常主模态的年代际变化及其与东亚水汽输送的关系[J].大气科学,35(4):589-606.
韩雪,魏凤英,2010.中国东部夏季降水与东亚垂直环流结构及其预测试验[J].大气科学,34(3):533-547.
郝振华,余锦华,2013.中国东部地区春季降水与气温异常型的联合EOF分析[J].资源科学,35(9):1898-1907.
黄菱芳,陈海山,郑旭程,等,2015.欧亚大陆夏季地表热力异常与同期中国东部夏季降水的可能联系[J].气候与环境研究,20(6):620-634.
李春晖,潘蔚娟,李霞,等,2017.华南春季降水及其季节内振荡强度的年代际变化特征[J].高原气象,36(2):491-500.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00034.
毛文书,王谦谦,李国平,2008.江淮梅雨异常的大气环流特征[J].高原气象,27(6):1267-1275.
覃军,王盘兴,2005.中国东部夏季三个雨带降水的年代际变化及其与中高纬环流和海温的关系[J].热带气象学报,21(1):63-71.
钱维宏,符娇兰,张玮玮,等,2007.近40年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述[J].地球科学进展,22(7):673-684.
孙林海,赵振国,许力,等,2005.中国东部季风区夏季雨型的划分及其环流成因分析[J].应用气象学报,16(增刊):56-62.
孙凤华,张耀存,郭兰丽,2009.中国东部夏季降水与同期东亚副热带急流年代际异常的关系[J].高原气象,28(6):1308-1315.
苏同华,薛峰,2010.东亚夏季风环流和雨带的季节内变化[J].大气科学,34(3):611-628.
孙照渤,陈海山,谭桂容,等,2010.短期气候预测基础[M].北京:气象出版社,223-232.
施能,1995.气象科研与预报中的多元分析方法[M].北京:气象出版社,344.
陶诗言,卫捷,2006.再论夏季西太平洋副热带高压的西伸北跳[J].应用气象学报,17(5):513-524.
魏凤英,2006.长江中下游夏季降水异常变化与若干强迫因子的关系[J].大气科学,30(2):202-211.
吴志伟,江志红,何金海,2006.近50年华南前汛期降水、江淮梅雨和华北雨季旱涝特征对比分析[J].大气科学,30(3):319-401.
徐建军,朱乾根,周铁汉,1998.东亚夏季风与中国夏季降水年际异常的分型研究[J].南京气象学院学报,21(3):313-320.
徐璇,陆日宇,石英,2011.全球和区域气候模式对中国东部夏季降水季节演变模拟的比较[J].大气科学,35(6):1177-1186.
王黎娟,陈璇,管兆勇,等,2011.江淮流域持续性强降水期间西太副高位置变异与非绝热加热的关系[J].热带气象学报,27(3):327-335.
杨玮,徐敏,周顺武,等,2017.江淮流域6-7月极端强降水事件时空变化及环流异常[J].高原气象,36(3):718-735.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00047.
俞亚勋,王式功,钱正安,等,2013.夏半年西太副高位置与东亚季风雨带(区)的气候联系[J].高原气象,32(5):1510-1525.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00033.
张铭,安洁,朱敏,2007.一次暴雨过程的EOF分析[J].大气科学,31(2):321-328.
翟盘茂,李蕾,周佰铨,等,2016.江淮流域持续性极端降水及预报
方法研究进展[J].应用气象学报,27(5):631-640.
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