锡林浩特地区二氧化碳浓度对气候暖干化的影响研究
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摘要
针对CO_2浓度变化是否影响区域气候暖干化的问题,本文研究了锡林浩特地区CO_2浓度与气温、降雨量、干燥度的相互关系。基于1999—2013年的CO_2浓度数据,本文分析了研究区CO_2浓度的时空分布规律,结果表明CO_2浓度逐年增加,CO_2月平均浓度最高值出现在5月份,最低值在1月份,在空间上CO_2浓度呈现东南高、西北低的格局。本研究采用滑动平均法、最小二乘法分析了研究区1999—2013年的年均温和年降水量的变化趋势,并引入表征气温和降水变化趋势的指数干燥度IdM,用整个研究区的500个随机点,分别提取CO_2月平均浓度与平均气温及降水距平百分率,进行相关分析,结果显示CO_2浓度与气温呈线性正相关,与降水距平百分率呈线性负相关,即CO_2的浓度越高,气候变暖明显,降水量下降,致使锡林浩特地区气候呈现暖干化趋势。本研究为草原地区气候变化的深入研究奠定理论基础。
For the question whether the regional climate warming and drying were affected by variations of CO_2 concentration,this paper studied the relationship between CO_2 concentration and temperature,precipitation and aridity in Xilinhot region. Based on the data in 1999—2013,this paper analyzed the regularity of the distribution of time and space of CO_2 concentration in Xilinhot area. It was showed that CO_2 concentration increased year by year. In addition,monthly mean value reached the maximum in May,and reached the minimum in January. In fact,CO_2 concentration was high in the southeast,low in the northwest in space in study area.This paper analyzed the variation trend of the annual temperature and precipitation with least-squares method and moving average in study area during 1999—2013. And this study analyzed the influence on climate warming and drying by CO_2 concentration through introducing the index called aridity,which represented the trend of temperature and precipitation. Through the correlation analysis,this study analysed the relationship between monthly mean value of CO_2 concentration and mean temperature and precipitation anomaly percentage with the 500 random points which extracted respectively in the whole study area. It was concluded that CO_2 concentration and temperature were positively linearly correlated,CO_2 concentration and precipitation anomaly percentage showed a negative linear correlation. And it was concluded that the climate presented a trend of warming and drying because of the increasing of CO_2 concentration and declining of precipitation in Xilinhot. This study lays a theoretical basis for the further research of climate change in the prairie region.
For the question whether the regional climate warming and drying were affected by variations of CO_2 concentration,this paper studied the relationship between CO_2 concentration and temperature,precipitation and aridity in Xilinhot region. Based on the data in 1999—2013,this paper analyzed the regularity of the distribution of time and space of CO_2 concentration in Xilinhot area. It was showed that CO_2 concentration increased year by year. In addition,monthly mean value reached the maximum in May,and reached the minimum in January. In fact,CO_2 concentration was high in the southeast,low in the northwest in space in study area.This paper analyzed the variation trend of the annual temperature and precipitation with least-squares method and moving average in study area during 1999—2013. And this study analyzed the influence on climate warming and drying by CO_2 concentration through introducing the index called aridity,which represented the trend of temperature and precipitation. Through the correlation analysis,this study analysed the relationship between monthly mean value of CO_2 concentration and mean temperature and precipitation anomaly percentage with the 500 random points which extracted respectively in the whole study area. It was concluded that CO_2 concentration and temperature were positively linearly correlated,CO_2 concentration and precipitation anomaly percentage showed a negative linear correlation. And it was concluded that the climate presented a trend of warming and drying because of the increasing of CO_2 concentration and declining of precipitation in Xilinhot. This study lays a theoretical basis for the further research of climate change in the prairie region.
引文
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[11]崔利芳,任学慧. 1960—2009年大连市气候暖干化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(9):26-32.
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[14]赵宗慈.用气候模式模拟大气中二氧化碳浓度增加对气候变化的影响[J].气象科技,1986(4):37-44.
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[17]阿依加马力·克然木,努尔巴衣·阿布都沙力克.近52年新疆吐鲁番市气温及降水量变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(12):45-50.
[18]张立伟,延军平.咸阳市气候暖干化及干旱灾害趋势判断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(10):131-135.
[19]姚玉璧,王毅荣,李耀辉,等.中国黄土高原气候暖干化及其对生态环境的影响[J].资源科学,2005,27(5):146-152.
[20]孙凤华,杨素英,陈鹏狮.东北地区近44年的气候暖干化趋势分析及可能影响[J].生态学杂志,2005,24(7):751-755.
[21]周蕾芝,张爱光.大气中二氧化碳浓度对杭州气温的影响[J].浙江林学院学报,2000,17(3):301-304.
[22]刘志,王殿臣,张计琛,等.苏尼特草原气候变化与生态恶化趋势分析[J].内蒙古草业,2008,20(3):37-39.
[23]王跃思,王长科,郭雪清等.北京大气CO2浓度日变化、季变化及长期趋势[J].科学通报,2002,47(14):1108-1112.
[24]刘晓清,赵景波,于学峰.黄土高原气候暖干化趋势及适应对策[J].干旱区研究,2006,23(4):627-631.
[25]李丹丹. 1960-2009年朝阳市气候暖干化研究[J].齐齐哈尔大学学报(自然科学版),2013,29(3):73-75.
[26]王旭东,李忠,包伟民,等.乌海气候生产力对气候暖干化的响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(12):100-105.
[27]孟猛,倪健,张治国.地理生态学的干燥度指数及其应用评述[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(6):853-861.
[28]孙雪,高巍,赵雷,等.桓仁县近58年暖干化趋势与气温降水趋势分析[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(16):7255-7257.
[29]刘兆飞,王蕊,姚治君.蒙古高原气温与降水变化特征及CMIP5气候模式评估[J].资源科学,2016,38(5):956-969.
[2] IPCC. Climate change 2013:The Physical science basis[M]//Contribution of Working Croup 1 to the Fifth Assess-ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[3]李素英,刘钟龄,常英,等.内蒙古典型草原初级生产力的补偿性与稳定性[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(1):1-8.
[4]王冉,李素英,任丽娟,等.锡林郭勒草原区27种植物净光合速率影响因素的多因子分析[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(2):272-278.
[5]王春雨.谁发现了全球变暖这件事[J].中国三峡(科技版),2011(1):69-73.
[6]刘吉峰,丁裕国,江志红.全球变暖加剧对极端气候概率影响的初步探讨[J].高原气象,2007(4):837-842.
[7] GB/T20481-2006,气象标准汇编[S].[GB/T20481-2006,Meteorological standards compilation[S].
[8]万佳,延军平.宁夏近51年气候变化特征分析[J].资源开发与市场,2012,28(6):511-514+577.
[9]金阿丽,阿拉腾图雅.近五十年锡林浩特地区干旱特征分析[J].内蒙古师范大学学报,2010,39(3):269-274.
[10]李贺.锡林浩特地区草地畜牧业发展研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2011.
[11]崔利芳,任学慧. 1960—2009年大连市气候暖干化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(9):26-32.
[12]戴君虎,晏磊.温室效应及全球变暖研究简介[J].世界环境,2001(4):18-21.
[13]郝前明.中国二氧化碳排放的驱动因素研究[D].湖南大学,2011.
[14]赵宗慈.用气候模式模拟大气中二氧化碳浓度增加对气候变化的影响[J].气象科技,1986(4):37-44.
[15]廉丽姝.二氧化碳温室效应与气候变化的研究进展[J].曲阜师范大学学报(自然科学版),1996,22(3):102-106.
[16]卢爱刚,王瑛.延安市近60年气温与降水趋势突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012(1):60-62.
[17]阿依加马力·克然木,努尔巴衣·阿布都沙力克.近52年新疆吐鲁番市气温及降水量变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(12):45-50.
[18]张立伟,延军平.咸阳市气候暖干化及干旱灾害趋势判断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(10):131-135.
[19]姚玉璧,王毅荣,李耀辉,等.中国黄土高原气候暖干化及其对生态环境的影响[J].资源科学,2005,27(5):146-152.
[20]孙凤华,杨素英,陈鹏狮.东北地区近44年的气候暖干化趋势分析及可能影响[J].生态学杂志,2005,24(7):751-755.
[21]周蕾芝,张爱光.大气中二氧化碳浓度对杭州气温的影响[J].浙江林学院学报,2000,17(3):301-304.
[22]刘志,王殿臣,张计琛,等.苏尼特草原气候变化与生态恶化趋势分析[J].内蒙古草业,2008,20(3):37-39.
[23]王跃思,王长科,郭雪清等.北京大气CO2浓度日变化、季变化及长期趋势[J].科学通报,2002,47(14):1108-1112.
[24]刘晓清,赵景波,于学峰.黄土高原气候暖干化趋势及适应对策[J].干旱区研究,2006,23(4):627-631.
[25]李丹丹. 1960-2009年朝阳市气候暖干化研究[J].齐齐哈尔大学学报(自然科学版),2013,29(3):73-75.
[26]王旭东,李忠,包伟民,等.乌海气候生产力对气候暖干化的响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(12):100-105.
[27]孟猛,倪健,张治国.地理生态学的干燥度指数及其应用评述[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(6):853-861.
[28]孙雪,高巍,赵雷,等.桓仁县近58年暖干化趋势与气温降水趋势分析[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(16):7255-7257.
[29]刘兆飞,王蕊,姚治君.蒙古高原气温与降水变化特征及CMIP5气候模式评估[J].资源科学,2016,38(5):956-969.
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