中国南海极端海况概率预测及海洋工程防灾标准研究
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摘要
随着全球气候变化,自然灾害加剧的趋势。我国南部沿海城市的近海和海岸工程越来越受到台风、洪水、巨风和强降雨等极端因素的影响。本文基于多维复合极值分布理论分析在我国南海海岸带地区的台风诱发巨浪、风暴潮及相应的天文潮等致灾因素的联合频率,同时引入整体不确定性理论分析法(GUA),对各种统计理论,取样方法的计算结果进行合理的不确性评估。本文实例计算了中国南海海域海洋平台的甲板高程,与传统方法相比,该种概率预测的方法显示出合理性和安全性。
With the increasing tendency of natural hazards,the typhoon,hurricane and tropical cyclone induced surge,wave,precipitation,flood and wind as extreme external loads are menacing the coastal provinces of China.Facing to the increasing tendency of extreme sea hazards′intensity and disasters′losses,this paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence of typhoon induced extreme external hazards at the costal areas of South China Sea based on the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model.By global uncertainty analysis,all the main uncertainty factors are taken into account,including environmental loads,sampling method and statistics uncertainty.In this paper,the deck elevation of the platform is analyzed and predicted by using this model.Compared with the traditional design codes,the prediction sufficiently demonstrates the new method′s rationality and security.
With the increasing tendency of natural hazards,the typhoon,hurricane and tropical cyclone induced surge,wave,precipitation,flood and wind as extreme external loads are menacing the coastal provinces of China.Facing to the increasing tendency of extreme sea hazards′intensity and disasters′losses,this paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence of typhoon induced extreme external hazards at the costal areas of South China Sea based on the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model.By global uncertainty analysis,all the main uncertainty factors are taken into account,including environmental loads,sampling method and statistics uncertainty.In this paper,the deck elevation of the platform is analyzed and predicted by using this model.Compared with the traditional design codes,the prediction sufficiently demonstrates the new method′s rationality and security.
引文
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[2] Liu Defu,Jiang Yunpeng,Xie Botao,et al.Uncertainty analysis of breakwater wave overtopping volume,wave forces and structure stability[C].//The Sixteenth International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference.San Francisco,USA:International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers,2006.
[3]周俊华.中国台风灾害综合风险评估研究[D].北京:北京师范大学,2004.Zhou Jun-Hua.Study on Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Typhoon Disaster in China[D].Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2004.
[4] Liu Defu,Wang Liping,Pang Liang.Theory of multivariate compound extreme value distribution and its application to extreme sea atae prediction[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(23):2926-2930.
[5]刘德辅,庞亮,谢波涛,等.中国台风灾害区划及设防标准研究——双层嵌套多目标联合概率模式及其应用[J].中国科学E辑,2008,38(5):698-707.Liu D F,Pang L,Xie B T,et al.Typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria——A double layer nested multi-objective probability model and its application[J].Science in China(E),2008,38(5):698-707.
[6]史道济.实用极值统计方法[D].天津:天津科学技术出版,2006:138-185.Shi Daoji.Practical Extreme Value Statistical Method[D].Tianjin:Tianjin Science and Technology Press,2006:138-185.
[7] Shi Daoji,Zhou Shengsheng.Moment estimation for multivariate extreme value distribution in a nested logistic model[J].Ann Inst Statist Math,1999,51(2):253-264.
[8] Liu T F,Ma F S.Prediction of extreme wave heights and wind velocities[J].Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal&Ocean Division,1980,106:469-479.
[9] Liu T F.Long Term distribution of hurricane characteristics[J].Leej Transactions on Electrical&Electronic Engineering,1982:305-313.
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[11] Liu D F,Li H J.Prediction of extreme significant wave height from daily maxima[J].China Ocean Engineering,2001,15(1):97-106.
[12]刘德辅,王莉萍,宋艳,等.多维复合极值分布理论及其工程应用[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2004,34(5):893-902.Liu D F,Wang L P,Song Y,et al.Theory of multivariate compound extreme value distribution and its engineering application[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2004,34(5):893-902.
[13] Liu Defu,Song Yan,Shi Hongda,et al.Poisson-logistic compound bivariate extreme distribution and its application for designing of platform deck clearance[J].Asme International Conference on Offshore Mechanics&Arctic Engineering,2003,21(4):409-414.
[14] Liu D F,Song Y,Wang S Q,et al.Combined environmental design loads criteria for marine structures[C].//Houston,TX:Proc Offsh Tech Conf,2002:1749-1755.
[15] Liu Defu,Wang Liping,Pang Liang.Theory of multivariate compound extreme value distribution and its application to extreme sea atae prediction[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(23):2926-2930.
[16] Liu Defu,Ma Li,Jing Kun.Risk analysis of the disaster prevention design criteria for an estuarine city-Shanghai[C].//Canada,OMAE:Proc Offsh Mech Arc Eng,2004.
[17] Ochi M K.Stochastic analysis and probabilistic prediction of random seas[J].Adv Hydro-Sci,1982,13:217-315.
[18] Xie Botao,Liu Defu,Li Huajun,Gong Chen.Design code calibration of offshore platform against typhoon_hurricane attacks[J].China Ocean Engineering,2010,24(3):431-442.
[19] Bourgund U,Ouypornprasert W,Prenninger P H W.Advanced simulation methods for the estimation of systems reliability[C].//Univ Innsbr:Inst Eng Mech,1986.
[20] Kirby W H,M E Moss.Summary of flood-frequency analysis in the united states[J].J Hydrol,1987,96(1):5-14.
[21] API RP2A-WSD.Planning,designing and constructing fixed offshore platforms-working stress design[C].//Offshore Technology Conference.Washington,DC:API,2000.
[22] DET Norske Veritas.Structural Design of Offshore Units(WSD Method).Offshore Standard DNV-OS-C201[S].Oslo:DET Norske Veritas,2002:12-57.
[23] National Hurricane Center,Tropical Prediction Center.Tropiacl Weather Summary 2005[R].Miami:National Hurricane Center,2005.
[24] S Tarantola,N Giglioli,N J Jesinghaus,et al.Can global sensitivity analysis steer the implementation of models for environmental assessments and decision-making?[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2002,16:63-76.
[2] Liu Defu,Jiang Yunpeng,Xie Botao,et al.Uncertainty analysis of breakwater wave overtopping volume,wave forces and structure stability[C].//The Sixteenth International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference.San Francisco,USA:International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers,2006.
[3]周俊华.中国台风灾害综合风险评估研究[D].北京:北京师范大学,2004.Zhou Jun-Hua.Study on Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Typhoon Disaster in China[D].Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2004.
[4] Liu Defu,Wang Liping,Pang Liang.Theory of multivariate compound extreme value distribution and its application to extreme sea atae prediction[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(23):2926-2930.
[5]刘德辅,庞亮,谢波涛,等.中国台风灾害区划及设防标准研究——双层嵌套多目标联合概率模式及其应用[J].中国科学E辑,2008,38(5):698-707.Liu D F,Pang L,Xie B T,et al.Typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria——A double layer nested multi-objective probability model and its application[J].Science in China(E),2008,38(5):698-707.
[6]史道济.实用极值统计方法[D].天津:天津科学技术出版,2006:138-185.Shi Daoji.Practical Extreme Value Statistical Method[D].Tianjin:Tianjin Science and Technology Press,2006:138-185.
[7] Shi Daoji,Zhou Shengsheng.Moment estimation for multivariate extreme value distribution in a nested logistic model[J].Ann Inst Statist Math,1999,51(2):253-264.
[8] Liu T F,Ma F S.Prediction of extreme wave heights and wind velocities[J].Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal&Ocean Division,1980,106:469-479.
[9] Liu T F.Long Term distribution of hurricane characteristics[J].Leej Transactions on Electrical&Electronic Engineering,1982:305-313.
[10] Liu Defu,Pang Liang,Fu Gang,et al.Joint probability analysis of hurricane katrina 2005[C].//Proc Int Offsh Pol Eng Conf,San Francisco,USA:International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers,2006,3:74-80.
[11] Liu D F,Li H J.Prediction of extreme significant wave height from daily maxima[J].China Ocean Engineering,2001,15(1):97-106.
[12]刘德辅,王莉萍,宋艳,等.多维复合极值分布理论及其工程应用[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2004,34(5):893-902.Liu D F,Wang L P,Song Y,et al.Theory of multivariate compound extreme value distribution and its engineering application[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2004,34(5):893-902.
[13] Liu Defu,Song Yan,Shi Hongda,et al.Poisson-logistic compound bivariate extreme distribution and its application for designing of platform deck clearance[J].Asme International Conference on Offshore Mechanics&Arctic Engineering,2003,21(4):409-414.
[14] Liu D F,Song Y,Wang S Q,et al.Combined environmental design loads criteria for marine structures[C].//Houston,TX:Proc Offsh Tech Conf,2002:1749-1755.
[15] Liu Defu,Wang Liping,Pang Liang.Theory of multivariate compound extreme value distribution and its application to extreme sea atae prediction[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(23):2926-2930.
[16] Liu Defu,Ma Li,Jing Kun.Risk analysis of the disaster prevention design criteria for an estuarine city-Shanghai[C].//Canada,OMAE:Proc Offsh Mech Arc Eng,2004.
[17] Ochi M K.Stochastic analysis and probabilistic prediction of random seas[J].Adv Hydro-Sci,1982,13:217-315.
[18] Xie Botao,Liu Defu,Li Huajun,Gong Chen.Design code calibration of offshore platform against typhoon_hurricane attacks[J].China Ocean Engineering,2010,24(3):431-442.
[19] Bourgund U,Ouypornprasert W,Prenninger P H W.Advanced simulation methods for the estimation of systems reliability[C].//Univ Innsbr:Inst Eng Mech,1986.
[20] Kirby W H,M E Moss.Summary of flood-frequency analysis in the united states[J].J Hydrol,1987,96(1):5-14.
[21] API RP2A-WSD.Planning,designing and constructing fixed offshore platforms-working stress design[C].//Offshore Technology Conference.Washington,DC:API,2000.
[22] DET Norske Veritas.Structural Design of Offshore Units(WSD Method).Offshore Standard DNV-OS-C201[S].Oslo:DET Norske Veritas,2002:12-57.
[23] National Hurricane Center,Tropical Prediction Center.Tropiacl Weather Summary 2005[R].Miami:National Hurricane Center,2005.
[24] S Tarantola,N Giglioli,N J Jesinghaus,et al.Can global sensitivity analysis steer the implementation of models for environmental assessments and decision-making?[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2002,16:63-76.
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